GOLD & SILVER - next move?

[adamsteele]

I'm still bearish at GCJ07 ASK $646.20

:arrowd:

Despite jitters in the world financial markets and the belief that all- powerful gold is an inflation hedge. I believe that traders would be better off not buying Gold until the 620 level for GCJ07 has been reached. I fully expect 2 retracements upwards along the way. However that should be corrected within 4 Days each.
Once the 620 level is breached there will be a huge margin of safety for Gold purchases and I believe a stop loss of 616 is mandatory. If gold tanks below all bets are off. I would'nt give a dime for your chances below 615.5

Remember you are not going to give me any of your profits so I have no stake in your loss. Morally, financially or under any condition whatsoever I want no part of the consequences of you actions based on my beliefs.
Trade with common sense. Make your own evaluations, take small losses quickly and keep your profits safe for another day.

 

[Atilla]

Well it's good when crystal ball gazing pays off. Although I have not traded gold last week, to see some bounce along with the market is reassuring. Gold fell to 633 and bounced to 655 levels. However, as markets appetite for risk has reduced significantly and so gold has come down.

If markets continue their rise so will gold perhaps touching 655-660 as inflationary pressures and downward pressure in US economy is still strong.

Alternatively, if ME talks fail (over this weekend) and war drums start beating then gold can brake beyond 660 in very quick time.

On the down side, if oil continues it's rise and spurs inflationary pressures and downward $ move then talk of interest rate hikes (though unlikely due to elections) can take gold down.

Living in parallel worlds if peace does look promising in the ME and Iran cools down is nuclear rhetoric, gold can fall considerably to 630-20 levels prety quickly too. The over zealous leader Ahmedajeen may be replaced soon too. I think this may be political news to ease west's concerns after his remarks but I'm not sure if it's remour or substance.

On the news front...

Talks are taking place between all Iraq's neighbours - inclusive of US, Iran & Syria.

Iran to brief UN and be transparent about it's nuclear development.

Reports that Dick Cheney is likely to retire soon as his health is deteriating. (Not because of the war but because of the CIA agent leakage and Libby indictment issues. ) This is likely to be a seismic change as Democrats get to have say on replacement - hence, large part of US foreign policy. Good news imo.

Bad news...

China tells US not to promote Taiwan Independence

US says China is building up it's Military weapons and spends more than it discloses on defence.

US changing focus to Latin America

US State Department releases 2006 Human Right Practices ( This is very funny )

Cold war heats up as Czech & Polands desire to host Pentagon's missile shield sends shivers to Russia.

Apparently the French came very close to shooting down an Israeli fighter. That's scary.


I'm still not moving back into gold though until I hear some fundamental piece of news one way or another. My technical charts indicating a sell condition at the mo. At times like this I just try and stick to my system and make sure I'm on the correct side of my MAs. My daily BBands are wide apart as the English Channel. I'd like them to be like the Suez Cannal before I put my bets in.


Good trading everyone...

 

[de123]

maybe nice to read
http://tradersinsights.com/blog/2007/03/14/gold-is-not-priceless/

 

[Atilla]

Hi everyone,

This thread seems to have gone a little quiet since gold has eased off along with the market turmoil but here is my weekly view FWIW.

Last week I was expecting gold to be in the 655-660 range and just missed it - although 655 was touched. To note, this price action went against my charts and TA - which last week was showing a sell being on the down side of my MAs.

This week my charts and TA shows it as almost a buy. I would like my MAs to cross over though and price seems to be on the verge of braking through my MAs with MACD, RSI showing a buy.

On the economics side, I think the US position is very alarming to say the least. I think all the excess liquidity in the markets are like little chickens coming home to roost. Bernanke did warn us in his last two statements but the markets are deaf to his subtle hints. Mr Greenspan has publicly commented on a recession towards the end of the year and I heard in some quarters as indicating the problems in the subprime lending market can spill into other areas of the economy. Other speakers are trying to talk up the market but I can't see it after our excesses.

Continued inflationary pressures and now talk of interest rate cuts is good for gold.

The economic slowdown is likely to be bad for gold.

As for a meltdown, I'm not sure which way it will go but certainly will not lose it's value unlike currencies or equities so I'd guess it will stay stable or rise.

I think many Asian countries are still moving out of the $ and the Yen carry trades likely to continue in turmoil so this will also be good for gold.

On the geopolitical front talks re: Iraq inclusive of Iran and Syria have been enhancing of peace which is good and is likely to add to gold coming off it's hyper highs. Other news is relatively insignificant this week as the talks start and war drums quieten down.

For next week I'm expecting a lateral somewhat higher move in towards 655 - 660 range again.

It's possible with inflationary stats and BoE & Fed speak this week might move the markets but I would guess this is more likely to be to the up side.

I'm still not in the market but depending on the stats may move in with long around the 657+ region once upward move is confirmed.

Prosperous trading everyone...

 

[TWI]

I have been back long both gold and silver since thursday last week. Nice move friday and i took some off. I see no strong reason for either to cr*p out from here. ETF's are key and need to be subtracted from the OI to see actual spec picture. All looks ok to me. I will however not sit on any position here, I think it could have some horifying corrections along the way and at any time. I will be buying the excess panic.

 

[Atilla]

I have been back long both gold and silver since thursday last week. Nice move friday and i took some off. I see no strong reason for either to cr*p out from here. ETF's are key and need to be subtracted from the OI to see actual spec picture. All looks ok to me. I will however not sit on any position here, I think it could have some horifying corrections along the way and at any time. I will be buying the excess panic.

Well got to stick to the rules... I'm now back in long - small stake - at 656.5...

Housing stats and continued inflationary pressures in the UK and Euro did it for me. I suspect the same in the US and probably no interest rate rises. Could be wrong but have to test the theory.

My target is 665 for starters I'd guess. So far so good. As I write Gold is already at 660.5.

 

[Atilla]

Well got to stick to the rules... I'm now back in long - small stake - at 656.5...

Housing stats and continued inflationary pressures in the UK and Euro did it for me. I suspect the same in the US and probably no interest rate rises. Could be wrong but have to test the theory.

My target is 665 for starters I'd guess. So far so good. As I write Gold is already at 660.5.

I closed my position yesterday at 595.5 prematurely perhaps, but now waiting to see what the Fed speak will be.

All signs are like inflationary pressures are still around us with no likely prospect of rate rises. Bodes well for inflation and so gold.

Looking to buy long again on weakness. Daily charts looking bullish. Any drop back down to 656-8 regions and I'll be going long again.

 

[TWI]

I am hanging in there, still have 60% of position on. I guess if I am gonna get kicked out it will be on fed otherwise will continue to tray and ride it higher.

 

[Atilla]

I am hanging in there, still have 60% of position on. I guess if I am gonna get kicked out it will be on fed otherwise will continue to tray and ride it higher.

656-8 marks a nice line of support on my 4 hour charts.

I think this is a small pull back before sprint forward again. I almost stepped in again around 661 mark but I'm being cautious.

Brain is telling me to wait for the Bernanke's take on econ. I'm thinking there is no way they can raise interest rates based on subprime lending problems. Only increase market turmoil. So gold should rise.

Fingers are saying click that BUY button. Looking at TA - MAs up and crossed. Price not falling below 659 at the mo.

Looking at SPX 1412 is also wanting to drift higher. Euro and £ also up on $ hence $ really should fall or remain as it was. Oil stuck at $60 reluctant to fall.

Finally, Gordon's pencilled in 2.5-3% growth for the next couple of years. So I'm likely to buy.

My strategy will be buy near 559 with a tight SL 555. But I will be listening to Bloomberg and placing the trade on that opportune moment. No target (perhaps 665) will use trailing SL.

Good trading everyone.

 

[finmarx]

interesting reading...

I was long gold today - i moved my SL and managed to get out catching 4 points. price went up and came all the way back down.

I think I'm going to hold back for a bit on until my TA gives a better indication.

 

[Atilla]

interesting reading...

I was long gold today - i moved my SL and managed to get out catching 4 points. price went up and came all the way back down.

I think I'm going to hold back for a bit on until my TA gives a better indication.

That's the problem with close SL...

My strategy and target was spot on but whilst looking at Cable and SPX I failed to apply it. Price moved up to 661-2 and I thought I'll wait for it to come down again and it didn't but carried on.

However, I feel emboldened and nerves are becoming steadier.

Pooh bear for not making the trade.

In general I think the Fed has indicated greater liquidity and the $ is only likely to further sink.

 

[finmarx]

my stops where placed around 30 points away which I thought for gold is relatively loose. looking at the markets now, i'm kicking myself as i can see my analysis was spot on. just my trading strategy must be rubbish.
i need to get back to the drawing board.

 

[TWI]

I took some more off yesterday and today but still have 40% open. Prepared to ride it but who knows what tomorrow brings, some dollar strenght thursday afternoon certainly put the dampers on. Coming into the weekend we may see some weak longs exit. I am gonna try to stay away from the micro management and stick with it.

 

[Atilla]

I took some more off yesterday and today but still have 40% open. Prepared to ride it but who knows what tomorrow brings, some dollar strenght thursday afternoon certainly put the dampers on. Coming into the weekend we may see some weak longs exit. I am gonna try to stay away from the micro management and stick with it.

Nice one TWI, I wish I was still in it too but I've turned into a scalper these days. Very much snatch and run.

I was bullish on the £ v $ and expected the $ continue to fall but seems to have risen today for what ever reason.

Oil rising is good but I don't have much faith in US econ. Also, the Fed signalling more liquidity and raising the importance of economic growth over inflation worries - is obviously good for gold.

Still looking bullish on the daily and 4 hourly charts. I think China is making some long term adjustments to it's reserves and of all the currencies if I was in doubt I'd go for gold. Basically, fundamentals are still good for gold.

I'm really looking for another opportunity to go long again. I'm waiting for it to sink to 658 regions before buying in again. Knowing my luck it will go up to 670 and I'll just watch it like a red balloon go sky high....

 

[finmarx]

you've summed it up perfectly. I'm now too chicken to get into the market. if i hadn't been stopped out i'd be running my positions.

i'm left scratching my head - i have no idea which way the markets heading.

 

[Hook Shot]

Oil after two big upwaves since the mid jan lows without much retracement - I think I termed it relentless somewhere else. So to see it attempting anothe upwave potentially to new swing highs is not really a surprise. But it does make me think of "millitary matters" once more especially as the rhetoric seems to be calming down. Gold maybe gearing up for safe haven status ???

Just a thought - I'm not upto speed with the "news" just a feeling...

 

[TWI]

The Iranians are helping gold bulls this morning after a run in with the Navy.

 

[Atilla]

The Iranians are helping gold bulls this morning after a run in with the Navy.

Thanks TWI, that explains why oil rocketing up when I was expecting it to fall.

On gold, I thought yes it's dropping back down to 661 and up it goes again. I've now taken the leap on the news and gone long again at 664.7.

The Iraqi Deputy PM has also been injured in an explosion and the UN are voting on Iranian sanctions again with Russia resisting.

Israel also recently carried out one of its most comprehensive missile attack defence tests.

I think perhaps the geopolitical situation is hotting up again.

Trade the news that scares...

 

[TWI]

Atilla u still in april gold? I am in june now.

Hard to say how this will escalate if at all and whether it will bring in the buyers.
As for crude. It looks like a long term inverted head and shoulders is forming going back to mid sep 06 and possibly it will complete soon. I keep a positive bias in energy with another positive being the lack of spec length. Only real flag was the way J7 wnet off vs K7 and a lot of debate about how K/M will trade from here.

 

[Atilla]

Atilla u still in april gold? I am in june now.

Hard to say how this will escalate if at all and whether it will bring in the buyers.
As for crude. It looks like a long term inverted head and shoulders is forming going back to mid sep 06 and possibly it will complete soon. I keep a positive bias in energy with another positive being the lack of spec length. Only real flag was the way J7 wnet off vs K7 and a lot of debate about how K/M will trade from here.

I trade the rolling cash spreads from CMC.

Given the bad news I think it just adds to uncertainty. Depends on how the US react. US picks on the little guy. Iran picks on the little brother. They are probing each other.

Rising oil is likely to add to inflationary pressures so good for gold I'd guess. But I was expecting oil to fall along with a slowing economy.

I'm in now so will watch. SL 659. Target 669. It's got to test 670 sooner or later.

I could be wrong on both counts but got to see it through now.