Atilla
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Hook Shot said:
That will be decided by the US.
I think it's just a probe at the mo. However, the news said this was more serious than last time.
Iran seizes UK marines
I think any uncertainty especially after the Americans capturing their diplomats and virtually attacking their embassy in Iraq + arresting Iranians / Iraqis comming across the border are alll the up the ante actions. I thought it woud go this way if I may say so.
I think most are probably waiting for a response from Uncle Sam. Doubt UK will do anything but talk.
I really think we should pull our boys out of their.
I'm surprised gold hasn't gone up more or the S&P sank yet? You are right. Most confusing.
Perhaps too soon, but in these volatile markets do we need this now...? No I don't think so.
UN vote is pretty critical but the news don't match the votes. Russia is against sanctions and so is China. BBC and US news are full of tosh. Don't trust it. We get what they want us to hear.
Something is definately up though. Given it's Friday I'd sell & sell & sell and go home. 😕
Atilla
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Hi everyone,
Another week another fist full of pips - I hope.
Not much has changed in terms of outlook on the economic front. Essentially:
1. the US budget defecit
2. the US balance of payments defecit
3. housing weakness ..?
4. falling $
5. falling US interest rates ..?
are all in play. Hence, I'm bullish on gold.
This article puts it well... with an interesting chart...
On the news front obviously the Iranians arresting UK troops is a bad sign. Can only lead to escallation of tension with Iran. The news on this are that
1. Iran will use these troops as a bargaining tool in exchange for it's officials arrested without evidence in Iraq - 5 Iranians last month.
2. Apparently they will be charged with spying on Iranian territories which can have a heavy sentence.
3. Iran has rebuffed strongly UN vote on it's Nuclear programme.
The next step is how the US will react.
A former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations says only regime change will cause Iran to halt its nuclear program. Ambassador John Bolton spoke one day after the U.N. Security council voted to impose new sanctions on Tehran for refusing to stop enriching uranium.
What next for gold?
Last week I went scalping back into gold and again based on the news at a higher price than I was hoping to jump back on. For some reason it dropped over Friday night. I didn't know or understand why but I held my position over the weekend and in the last hour added to my position @659.2.
My target for next week is 665 - 670. SL 655.
I think volatility is back but all these challenging economic environment and negative news is bullish for gold imo.
Good luck everyone...
Another week another fist full of pips - I hope.
Not much has changed in terms of outlook on the economic front. Essentially:
1. the US budget defecit
2. the US balance of payments defecit
3. housing weakness ..?
4. falling $
5. falling US interest rates ..?
are all in play. Hence, I'm bullish on gold.
This article puts it well... with an interesting chart...
On the news front obviously the Iranians arresting UK troops is a bad sign. Can only lead to escallation of tension with Iran. The news on this are that
1. Iran will use these troops as a bargaining tool in exchange for it's officials arrested without evidence in Iraq - 5 Iranians last month.
2. Apparently they will be charged with spying on Iranian territories which can have a heavy sentence.
3. Iran has rebuffed strongly UN vote on it's Nuclear programme.
The next step is how the US will react.
A former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations says only regime change will cause Iran to halt its nuclear program. Ambassador John Bolton spoke one day after the U.N. Security council voted to impose new sanctions on Tehran for refusing to stop enriching uranium.
What next for gold?
Last week I went scalping back into gold and again based on the news at a higher price than I was hoping to jump back on. For some reason it dropped over Friday night. I didn't know or understand why but I held my position over the weekend and in the last hour added to my position @659.2.
My target for next week is 665 - 670. SL 655.
I think volatility is back but all these challenging economic environment and negative news is bullish for gold imo.
Good luck everyone...
Atilla
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Gold is on sprint.
Ditched 50% pos at 664.5 limit. I'm not sure if this is a retrace to BBands at 660 before another spurt forward.
If it does touch 660 and gets support I'll be sure to buy the same again. This time I feel 667+ coming on.
Mixed emoitions about moving in at 662 wihich is 23% fib retrace on hourly chart, but will stick to pos.
Ditched 50% pos at 664.5 limit. I'm not sure if this is a retrace to BBands at 660 before another spurt forward.
If it does touch 660 and gets support I'll be sure to buy the same again. This time I feel 667+ coming on.
Mixed emoitions about moving in at 662 wihich is 23% fib retrace on hourly chart, but will stick to pos.
i'm still out of the market. everything i'm trading is showing a downward trend including gold. i'll need to see a reversal before piling in...what your saying makes sense, however, until my trading system indicates a buy i still can't see the direction of the market
Atilla
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finmarx said:
This is what I'm seeing today and my entry points for BBand break outs at 660. (Shown by green arrow and ellipse)
MAs have crossed + crossing my MA55 red dotted line. Is very bullish. Still rising. Touched 665 where 664.5 was my target. This 665 level has been tested many times now. Does everyone remember test of 640? Number of times we kept bouncing down off it...
We had a retrace to Fib 23% = 662 and gold has bounced off it. So this bullish run is pretty good at the mo. I'm still in with my 50% pos. Will leave it open.
Iran situ is deteriating again. Housing stats poorly, rates likely to fall in US. Oil up. I can't see gold going down in this market.
Unless price crosses my MAs and they begin to head down or 660 is breached I'll be long.
Finally, notice the rising wedge. This is bullish chart pattern. Usually break out from resistance. I have the 27-28th March as break out (where my lines SAR lines cross).
Which time charts do you trade on?
Good luck to everyone...
Attachments
I see, i'm using 23 and 13 day ma's...which is not too disimular from yours i notice. but the key difference being that your graph is for hourly price moves...this makes a huge difference. this will include all the noise. I'm using close prices. i'm intrigued - does anyone else use hourly prices?
using your system shows a definate bull run and a strong buy...however if you switch to daily, you'll see a different picture.
using your system shows a definate bull run and a strong buy...however if you switch to daily, you'll see a different picture.
Atilla
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finmarx said:
Hi Finmarx,
This is the daily charts I see going back to 2006. Here is my long term TA.
I see an ascending triangle which is bullish
I see a Symmetrical triangle too since 2007 which tends to carry on in it's previous trend.
Price is above MAs 9, 18 & 55.
MA9 = 660 - My SL pos.
MA18=657 - Another possible SL pos.
MA55=652 - Another possible SL pos.
BB Upper=670, Lower=644 - Break out levels.
Given that price is 665 at the mo. I'm in the bullish camp. Wondering weather to add to my pos again as I feel this will soon test 670 again.
On FA, the hostage issue is likely to excallate. We just need the US as a anticipated excuse to lay an ultimatum to the Iranians to release the troops and everything will go ape pooh.
You could read up on our views on this thread if you like http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=24264
Oil is past $62,
Housing slump in US. TBonds rising. Possible rate drop.
I know what you mean and I went through a nervous patch when we had that recent drop but that long term trend line is very strong.
Please only trend on your convictions not mine. I'm only putting this up to think out aloud (and probably to test my conviction rightly or wrongly 🙄 )...
Prosperous trading everyone...
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Atilla
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Hi everyone, don't know if you are all in bed but gold is on route to 670. 668 just breached.
I still have position open and kicking my self I did not add to it around 663 this afternoon. Greed kicking in again.
False rumours of an Iranian attack on a US vessel kicked the the price into life.
Given the US exercises in the gulf a minor incident can spark oil and gold to shoot through the stratosphere...
Definately worth a punt for those with strong constitutions... :cheesy:
I still have position open and kicking my self I did not add to it around 663 this afternoon. Greed kicking in again.
False rumours of an Iranian attack on a US vessel kicked the the price into life.
Given the US exercises in the gulf a minor incident can spark oil and gold to shoot through the stratosphere...
Definately worth a punt for those with strong constitutions... :cheesy:
TWI
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Recently released data show that the Central Bank of Qatar added an
additional QAR110m to its gold holdings in January 2007. In the same month, its investment in foreign
securities eased by a little over QAR200m.
What we think: The shift in holdings is abrupt and unexpected but should
not be read as proof of a broader Gulf desertion of the US dollar. The growth in gold holdings and
fall in foreign securities is, so far, a one-month phenomena. When compared y-o-y rather
than m-o-m, the numbers show foreign securities holdings to have increased by QAR1.4bn
– 11 times more than the increase in gold holdings over the same period. All
told, gold constitutes less than 1% of the central bank’s official reserves, while
foreign securities make up close on 80%. No data are made available on the nature or currency
composition of these securities, but given that the central bank’s primary
role is to ensure the maintenance of the riyal’s peg to the US dollar, it is highly
likely that the bulk of these funds are placed in US assets.
Nevertheless, there are significant concerns across the region over the
outlook for the dollar, and an acute awareness that a period of sustained weakness would
see the value of the Gulf’s large overseas assets portfolios decline. In addition to
Qatar, the UAE central bank has also signalled that it is diversifying its foreign
reserves away from the dollar and into the euro. Other central banks appear to be actively
assessing their exposures. As yet the shift appears to have been very gradual, however, and
while the currencies continue to be pegged to the US currency the lion’s share of the
central banks’ holdings will remain in liquid dollar-denominated assets.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
additional QAR110m to its gold holdings in January 2007. In the same month, its investment in foreign
securities eased by a little over QAR200m.
What we think: The shift in holdings is abrupt and unexpected but should
not be read as proof of a broader Gulf desertion of the US dollar. The growth in gold holdings and
fall in foreign securities is, so far, a one-month phenomena. When compared y-o-y rather
than m-o-m, the numbers show foreign securities holdings to have increased by QAR1.4bn
– 11 times more than the increase in gold holdings over the same period. All
told, gold constitutes less than 1% of the central bank’s official reserves, while
foreign securities make up close on 80%. No data are made available on the nature or currency
composition of these securities, but given that the central bank’s primary
role is to ensure the maintenance of the riyal’s peg to the US dollar, it is highly
likely that the bulk of these funds are placed in US assets.
Nevertheless, there are significant concerns across the region over the
outlook for the dollar, and an acute awareness that a period of sustained weakness would
see the value of the Gulf’s large overseas assets portfolios decline. In addition to
Qatar, the UAE central bank has also signalled that it is diversifying its foreign
reserves away from the dollar and into the euro. Other central banks appear to be actively
assessing their exposures. As yet the shift appears to have been very gradual, however, and
while the currencies continue to be pegged to the US currency the lion’s share of the
central banks’ holdings will remain in liquid dollar-denominated assets.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Atilla
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Just went long on gold based on news UK troops have sorrounded Iranian Consulate in Basra.
Looks like the hostage crises may be extending rather than defusing.
There are also indications Euro is likely to hold 1.33 - 1.3350 + areas.
Hence movement out of $ and into Euro & Gold likely to continue.
Good trading everyone.
Looks like the hostage crises may be extending rather than defusing.
There are also indications Euro is likely to hold 1.33 - 1.3350 + areas.
Hence movement out of $ and into Euro & Gold likely to continue.
Good trading everyone.
Atilla
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JTrader said:
Gold might be coming off the boil because of this news....
As long as something doesn't kick off before then.
I can't see how the US can start a front with Iran based on this news.
At last the Democrats are managing to kick Bush out to touch. Thank God.
I've closed all my long pos on gold.
belgiumbrit
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Gold ........... i am just bewildered ........ it should be at 685 now surely ......... everything is in place for a break out .but its just dawdling ......coming down when oil is up and usd down ..i'm totally lost on this ............. I can see a break to 700 ...but if it can't do it on what we've had in the last week .when can it do it ???
Atilla
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belgiumbrit said:
I'm likewise.
Revisited gold just to have a glance and I think has been consolidating testing and probing.
Seems to have gone sideways. However, on the 4 hr charts it's sat on a new level above 655 and in a band between 655 - 665.
Two major currents at the moment imo that is important...
1. Hostage crises is defused and war drums quieten down will mean gold should ease off
2. Still the problem of twin defecits and the $ losing it's influence will mean gold should rise
On the hole still bullish about gold. In fact I feel $ will lose it's world denomination to be replaced by the Euro, Yuan and gold. This will I'm almost certain in the next 5 10 years take gold up to $1000 for sure.
In the short term I can't help thinking 655 and 640 will be tested again. Not sure why just beginning to feel a little more optimistic about peace.
However, all very speculative and I'm still out of gold. I have decided though when it drops back down to 655 regions I will go long again.
