GOLD & SILVER - next move?

[Atilla]

.

I made 50 pips last night but my nerve gave way and I closed my position prematurely. I didn't want to leave an exposed position to the markets in current turmoil nor lose gains. Looking at prices I could have made double and moved my stops up but such is life.

I'm really really rattled by all these fluctuations. Rudderless to make or lose money.

 

[TWI]

I currently have small Yen long, thought it was clever to be a light weight when the initial break pulled back and nearly stopped me out but clung in there and ready to substantially increase if this action continues. Think this could be one to ride for a long time just adding on Yen weakness.

 

[Atilla]

I currently have small Yen long, thought it was clever to be a light weight when the initial break pulled back and nearly stopped me out but clung in there and ready to substantially increase if this action continues. Think this could be one to ride for a long time just adding on Yen weakness.

Well if gold reaches 660 regions based on my indicators I hope to move in long again. If I can't reign in the big beast, I'll take small bites off it's rear.

Gold at 666 looks so pretty 😈

 

[Atilla]

Well if gold reaches 660 regions based on my indicators I hope to move in long again. If I can't reign in the big beast, I'll take small bites off it's rear.

Gold at 666 looks so pretty 😈

Gold at 663.8 looks so enticing, I'm drawn to it like a fire-fly to the flame.

However, I'm still very cautious and on edge so once it gets passed 666 - 670 regions I'll be looking to lock in profits.

 

[jacinto]

Gold at 663.8 looks so enticing, I'm drawn to it like a fire-fly to the flame.

However, I'm still very cautious and on edge so once it gets passed 666 - 670 regions I'll be looking to lock in profits.

hi atilla
you sure price is not telling you a reversal is on the way?

j

 

[Atilla]

hi atilla
you sure price is not telling you a reversal is on the way?

j

Hi Jacinto,

I think early 660 is relatively cheap for gold. Although I'm edgy I still see potential in Gold mainly because of the weakness of the $. I see gold as a substitute for $. Can't see interest rates going up in this market despite inflationary pressures. Also because of the elections. + Geopolitical situ. Oil is also high although I'm expecting it to fall a little.

One chap on this site hosted some stats up re: gold and the cosmetic demand for gold is relatively a small proportion of the overall demand for gold.

Here is one interesting article which I find plausible.

The Big Sell Off
18 Important Facts to Understand Re: Gold, Stocks and Bonds

I see the main weakness in the US economy not the Chineese. The Russian and Asian crises of the past have been a non event. The recovery was so swift. I think the recent events probably more to do with Mr Greenspans comments and Millenium dot com bubble boom bust reflections. I'm sure a lot of traders out there have got luggage they haven't quite lost yet.

I have closed my positions for now after taking 5 pips profit. I'm expecting it to rise overnight as it has been last few days. I don't have certainty though. I've also lost the bottle along with some dosh today.

Many thanks for pointing the potential pitfall.

Kind regards,

 

[jacinto]

sorry to hear that.

have been eying gold recently, not only as a proxy for safety, but also as a trading opp. As I said before, I really hold no opinion on it, just watching a chart develop.

have a good evening

j

 

[Atilla]

sorry to hear that.

have been eying gold recently, not only as a proxy for safety, but also as a trading opp. As I said before, I really hold no opinion on it, just watching a chart develop.

have a good evening

j

Don't be sorry.

I feel much worse when I lose money than when I fail to make money.

Also it's good to test ones convictions. If in doubt as I am I really shouldn't have entered the position.

Once again many thanks.

 

[chump]

"I see the main weakness in the US economy not the Chineese. The Russian and Asian crises of the past have been a non event. The recovery was so swift"

Unfortunately ,the above does not help most people ,because they can't weather the volatility of the moves either emotionally ,or fianancially if they are too heavy in a particular asset group.
Indeed this is actually one argument in favour of aggregating into a position over time and keeping the allocation within the parameters you can live with....let me put it this way...every time the chinese cough I will cough a little more change back into them and carry on drinking my Latte ...this approach means I wil never be A rocket returner ,BUT I will outperform the aggregates of managed funds 😉 .

What we are saying here is ..know yourself ....we can't all be diamond black skiers and we can't all punt 50% into one asset group and cheerfully sit on volatility of 25% plus.

 

[TWI]

I hear that the large buy volume of past few weeks in cash gold has now turned seller. I am short a little, sold when silver broke down yesterday. Will hold it and be relatively happy if I get stopped out as lot of portfolio is bull bias the sector.
Fear is that once cot data is out this week and does not account for past 3 days long reduction seller may step up and open floodgates if charts do not show any reason to hang in there.
For me markets like Oil and Copper are better bet in sector because spec is still short both.

 

[Atilla]

"I see the main weakness in the US economy not the Chineese. The Russian and Asian crises of the past have been a non event. The recovery was so swift"

Unfortunately ,the above does not help most people ,because they can't weather the volatility of the moves either emotionally ,or fianancially if they are too heavy in a particular asset group.
Indeed this is actually one argument in favour of aggregating into a position over time and keeping the allocation within the parameters you can live with....let me put it this way...every time the chinese cough I will cough a little more change back into them and carry on drinking my Latte ...this approach means I wil never be A rocket returner ,BUT I will outperform the aggregates of managed funds 😉 .

What we are saying here is ..know yourself ....we can't all be diamond black skiers and we can't all punt 50% into one asset group and cheerfully sit on volatility of 25% plus.

Yes quite right. Not many people can tollerate these kind of volatility and magnitude of moves.

I was a long term day trader but in these markets I've become a scalper, puting in smaller stakes and taking smaller gains. FA says $ sinking gold should rise, TA says sell.

Best to sit on the fence for now.

 

[Atilla]

hi atilla
you sure price is not telling you a reversal is on the way?

j

Hi Jacinto,

Just a special thank you for raising my awareness to falling gold.

I checked this morning and recognised I would have had about 70 pip loss with my SL.

Looking at the price of gold now it's putting up a fight at the magic 640 and it's quite shocking.

TWI must be very happy going short.

Apperently Monday is going to be a big day for gold next week.

I'll have a good look over the weekend and write up my thoughts again.

Have a great weekend.

 

[paulb]

Apparently Monday is going to be a big day for gold next week.

I would love to know any more about this, e.g. who says so, big in which direction!

Chris Laird is warning of more market fireworks next week, possible hedge fund problems, etc. Interesting view, saying gold is not having a problem in itself, but that there is a liquidity problem and some people are liquidating gold so as to have money to pay off other debts. http://www.prudentsquirrel.com/breakingnews/03_02_07.htm

 

[jacinto]

no worries Atilla, just started to have a look at gold recently. gives interesting moves. will have to keep an eye on it.

j

 

[Atilla]

I would love to know any more about this, e.g. who says so, big in which direction!

Chris Laird is warning of more market fireworks next week, possible hedge fund problems, etc. Interesting view, saying gold is not having a problem in itself, but that there is a liquidity problem and some people are liquidating gold so as to have money to pay off other debts. http://www.prudentsquirrel.com/breakingnews/03_02_07.htm

Yes it's the reasons are as described in your article but I also heard that the large volume of calls placed that took gold to 680 have now started placing (or estimating) large volumes of puts to around 600 mark. At least I think it was 600.

 

[Jack o'Clubs]

Interesting view, saying gold is not having a problem in itself, but that there is a liquidity problem and some people are liquidating gold so as to have money to pay off other debts.

That was essentially TWI's argument IIRC. If it's true that the yen carry trade is starting to unwind (and that starts to become a self-fulfilling prophecy as yen rises), then it is assumed that quite a bit of the gold speculation has been done on the back of yen-denominated borrowing, and gold could be very volatile next week. Certainly long yen short gold looks an interesting place to be...

 

[chump]

dash for the door.....

 

[belgiumbrit]

Ok ....... that was a truely awful week gold trading , the volatility is somethong i haven't witnessed in quite some time .......... my thoughts on this ??? Well, personally i'm still a gold bull .and can see no technical weakness in gold and its ongoing bull run ! I think we can safely attribute golds decline last week as liquidation of positions to cover losing positions in equity markets ....the majority of margin calls came through on Thursday and Friday , so, many long positions were closed !

I personally saw Fridays low as the bottom , and hope to see a significant movement on the upside Mon .or Tuesday ! The market is now oversold, and we've seen this happen on a regular basis in Gold now , a steep correction, and within a week we're back to where we started on an up channel !!! We'll see .......... anyone else share my views ???

 

[Hook Shot]

Posted 26 Feb 2007

Over the weekend Gold had two timelines.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sat 24th Feb was 288d from highs last May.
Sun 25th was 144d since Oct lows

Probably means less than nothing but since we're at highs and approaching that weird month end/month start period ............ well ...who knows ?

Incidentally the two upwaves since the october lows are kindov "similar" in length....

Forget all the other reasons for the slider - they all have some merit ......but in truth Gold was vulnerable. Even a little fish like me could see that ......

Within 24hrs of the "post" Gold made it's high and the rest is history............ :cheesy:

Now for my next trick......

I'm tempted to call a low this week as we approach the 50% retrace of the October rally AND a retest of the pennant breakout which is right here-ish......not to mention the early month effect ........ but I'll keep shtum just in case I xxxx up.

So what am I saying ..... ? With some of your winnngs from the short trade you might want to wager a small percentage on a low this week - with stops naturally ..........

Despite the bullish rhetoric on this thread..... I KNOW there are some on the boards who made a big bundle out of the Gold Slide... mine was okay ... but I was close to my margin limit with other open trades etc...

Midas 😎

 

[Atilla]

Reflecting on the last week and the previous write ups by everyone, reading the last 5 pages on this site makes interesting reading. On a personal level having been shaken out at 658 I felt I missed out on the lurch forward to 680 but seeing the price now at 642 perhaps it was a blessing in disguise.

Having lost my nerve, I've been placing smaller bets and scalping. Haven't really gained on gold but not lost either (thanks to contributors to T2W).

Looking at my gold chart this week, I'm trying to draw some lessons from previous gold moves as I feel past behaviour often is an indication to future ones if the attributes of the commodity holds true to it's nature.

1. Last summer 05. we have had a 61% retracement in 4 weeks after gold peaked around May 06.

2. We subsequently had another almost 100% retracement in Sep 06.

3. Third retracement occurred in January of this year and that was 61% on the Fib ricter scale.

So gold has been well tested in it's climb and I don't feel it's rise is a flash in the pan. Hence, this week I'm guessing we might see continued drop in gold to 630 levels given past behaviour and then subsequent rise.

In each case above the trend has been a strong upward move. I put this down to the following factors.

- Weakening $ and inflationary pressures in US
- B of P defecit
- Budget defecit
- Geopolitical uncertainties
- Global growth and continued demand for commodities

On the economics side, a slowing US economy is likely to reduce consumption and so imports. I'm not sure about the budget defecit as I can't see any steps for tax increases altough Mr Bernanke referred to it in his speech. With elections round the corner, I doubt it will get a look in until after the event. So I think $ may be fairly balanced possibly strengthening in the short term.

Geopolitical news is very mixed. I'm still bearish on it on the whole. So far there has been some good news and some bad.
The good news is Iran has been talking to South Africa about dismantling nuclear facility.
Iranians have met and talked with the Saudies.
The US having indirect talks with Syria and Iran re: Iraq
US envoy talking to Syria re:Iraqi refugees

Bad news is Russia is blocking UN embargo on trade with Iran
Russia is selling anti tank and air missiles to Syria, against Israeli opposition.
US is developing tactical nuclear weapons (what is a tactical nuclear weapon? one that you can use on a small scale and get away with? this is like giving a green signal to every terrorist organisation to get one. What on earth are the Yanks thinking? 🙁 🙄 )
NATO is crumbling under US manipulation (everybody is talking about NATO called on to protect US interests and enforce US foreign policy)
Russia upset about new missile defence systems on it's borders
Afghans preparing for a major spring offensive
US taking over from the UK in Afghanistan
US expert on Russian spies Paul Joyal shot dead in front of his house
China Tells US Not to Promote Taiwan Independence -
China spending more on weapons - biggest to date some say.

As for the outlook for global growth, hard as I try I can't see anything decent with so many uncertainties. It's not exactly a thriving environment to stimulate economic growth and good business. I'm thinking until Autumn this year we are going to trend down on most instruments.


Good trading everyone...