Jack o'Clubs
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Been an interesting day for me: held on with big gold and silver positions (needed to get to 673 Apr futs for me to sit out), which got hairy when grains opened which I still had a load of. Also long oil and RBOB gas. Some of the grains got bailed out with stop-losses, but added near the bottom and all looking okay now. Feel like I've been through the wringer though - will enjoy a beer tonight!
Atilla
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Jack o'Clubs said:
I was spot on SPX and GBPUSD today but way off the mark for Gold. When it's up and down like a yoyo it's sometimes best to stay clear.
With all the uncertainties unless it drops significantly below 670 I don't think I'll touch it. It could well go through 700 but I've lost me nerve.
1. Lack of support for $ and
2. Geopolitcal uncertainties will push it
but
1. Inflation and rise in interest rates
2. Economic crash
will pull it down. It's too much to kaos to compute.
It's easier making money on FX and Indeces...
TWI
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I reduced risk substantially on the afternoon stength. I think we could well see a collapse in commods here. Not saying for sure but lot of talk fo implications of further weakness in China and possible interest rise killing off demand. Have to consider products where spec is long up a*se.
Gold was my horror story today.
Gold was my horror story today.
minx
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If anyone is interested
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=23871
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?t=23871
I've been watching the mining sector closely for the last 6 months and I posted these charts earlier on the price patterns thread page 10..technically what can you say about that timing in relation to the range..I think when people say the market is random I can't agree.
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Atilla
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chump said:
Interesting charts and repeat patterns.
I'm trying to think this through and considering I was a bear this is total herd mentality and over reaction.
Speakers were saying the Chineese earnings ratios were too high and had to come down. So why did the US indexes fall so much if our earning ratios were more level. How many times did I hear the likes of shares are fairly valued etc etc.
I know the markets were extended and not much potential for growth but these kinds of moves are exceptional.
I'm beginning to think markets totally over reacted and a pull back is in order. Dying to know how the Asian markets will react in Japan and Hong Kong tonight.
Coming back to gold and applying previous analysis and whats changed...
1. Lack of support for $ = likely to continue
2. Geopolitcal uncertainties = still there
but
3. Inflation and rise in interest rates = can't see interest rises so good for gold
4. Economic crash = this is the only bad signal but good for 1 above.
So kaos is still with us and commodities may sink but I think gold will hold up all things being equal. Interest rate falls now on the cards I'd guess.
Remembering what TWI said before gold went through the 680 barrier, buy when everybody else is selling.
I'll get out if it dips below 655 and not moving this time...
Atilla
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jacinto said:
Hmmm... I think 650 and then 620 likely to be very strong support. But after today 580 - 565 even 535 the unthinkable looks a possibility.
But only if peace brakes out...
I'm now long and expecting a bounce. Dead cat bounce what ever.
TWI
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Interesting action overnight
So here I am, back long a good amount of crude and silver but very little in gold yet. Still need a bit more convincing that there not going to be another move to downside before upping precious risk again.
I think the PPT have been throwing dollars at the S&P overnight and Paulson and Bernanke will come in all guns blazing.
So here I am, back long a good amount of crude and silver but very little in gold yet. Still need a bit more convincing that there not going to be another move to downside before upping precious risk again.
I think the PPT have been throwing dollars at the S&P overnight and Paulson and Bernanke will come in all guns blazing.
Jack o'Clubs
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I spoke too early yesterday when I referred to an interesting day in the past tense!
Got out of gold at my stop of 673 (Apr Futs), but then back in as it came up the other way. So now fully invested gold and silver, but with stops now 670. Took profits on the RBOB Gas position, but have left crude on. TWI - you still long yen for a medium term view? I joined that position this morning...
Got out of gold at my stop of 673 (Apr Futs), but then back in as it came up the other way. So now fully invested gold and silver, but with stops now 670. Took profits on the RBOB Gas position, but have left crude on. TWI - you still long yen for a medium term view? I joined that position this morning...
