Not a good morning (so far ) for S3, just one signal but fortunately entry criteria not met,
Market declines strongly for 40 minutes, and then consolidates in a tight range for 40
What we need is a good trend following strategy for mornings like this
anyway sorry to interrupt I'll carry on sitting on hands now
Market declines strongly for 40 minutes, and then consolidates in a tight range for 40
What we need is a good trend following strategy for mornings like this
anyway sorry to interrupt I'll carry on sitting on hands now
samtron said:Not a good morning (so far ) for S3, just one signal but fortunately entry criteria not met,
Market declines strongly for 40 minutes, and then consolidates in a tight range for 40
What we need is a good trend following strategy for mornings like this
anyway sorry to interrupt I'll carry on sitting on hands now
P/L so far this morning = 0
I've had worse mornings!!
Hi Samtron,samtron said:What we need is a good trend following strategy for mornings like this
anyway sorry to interrupt I'll carry on sitting on hands now
I agree that we do need to ID a Trending Market as well as a Consolidating one.
We are all aware that the markets will oscillate no matter what kind of market we are in, whether it’s Trending, Oscillating, or in Consolidation. It’s just that a Trending or even in an Oscillating Market the MACCI oscillates with less amplitude, and continues to be O/S or O/B over and over again.
I’ve had success in using a 5-Min Chart (with 5, 10 & 20EMA’s) as a confirmation indicator to identify if the market is in a Trend.
See the attached 5-Min chart (in MS Word) for Monday (Nov, 27th), which show's a “strong down trend” for practically the whole day. Notice that the 20EMA was rarely broken, while the 10EMA was violated a few times. Also the MACCI was continuously O/S throughout the trading day.
As for consolidation, I have only found the use of the market’s range, which can be seen in a chart as a narrow range, is suspect. When you see this, check the Range and compare it to its ATR(14) which for the Dow is currently = 84.8. For example today (Tuesday), between 13:40 and 14:10 (ET) the Dow’s Range was “16.”
Nas
Thanks Nastrader
I haven't yet done an analysis across all my trades to see whether incorporating ema's would have increased my profit. I'm not a great fan of moving averages in general but anything which improves profit is of interest.
One of my problems in the past has been that after a loss I try to look for some condition which would have prevented me from taking the losing trade. If I cut a winner short and it goes to the moon without me I look for another condition to change and I find myself trying to trade based on the last couple of trades. The next day is never quite like the last two trades but I end up not knowing what works and what doesn't. As a result I am now reluctant to add indicators without performing some kind of backtest analysis over a good sample of trades.
At the moment my results indicate that my performance is weakest after about 13:00 ET. My overall simplest and most effective rule over the last few weeks would have been not to trade after 13:00 (actually after 13:12 would have been best but that would be curve fitting I think!). I have had a small number of rather good trades in the afternoon however so I am trying to analyse what set of conditions might help me.
It would be great to hear how your performance with "strategy 3 plus emas" has worked out over longer period of time.
Thanks, as ever, for the input
Best regards
Gareth
edit
I've now looked back at all my trades back to 13th Nov. Using the 5,10, 20 ema's would have kept me out of all the losing trades. Also would have kept me out of all the profitable ones too. It may work for you as I think you use longer term MACCI settings than me. I would have thought it might work better with longer timeframe emas (perhaps a 30 min or 60 min chart) to determine trend with short term MACCIs for oscillation within the trend but I'm going to stick with what I've got for the time being.
I haven't yet done an analysis across all my trades to see whether incorporating ema's would have increased my profit. I'm not a great fan of moving averages in general but anything which improves profit is of interest.
One of my problems in the past has been that after a loss I try to look for some condition which would have prevented me from taking the losing trade. If I cut a winner short and it goes to the moon without me I look for another condition to change and I find myself trying to trade based on the last couple of trades. The next day is never quite like the last two trades but I end up not knowing what works and what doesn't. As a result I am now reluctant to add indicators without performing some kind of backtest analysis over a good sample of trades.
At the moment my results indicate that my performance is weakest after about 13:00 ET. My overall simplest and most effective rule over the last few weeks would have been not to trade after 13:00 (actually after 13:12 would have been best but that would be curve fitting I think!). I have had a small number of rather good trades in the afternoon however so I am trying to analyse what set of conditions might help me.
It would be great to hear how your performance with "strategy 3 plus emas" has worked out over longer period of time.
Thanks, as ever, for the input
Best regards
Gareth
edit
I've now looked back at all my trades back to 13th Nov. Using the 5,10, 20 ema's would have kept me out of all the losing trades. Also would have kept me out of all the profitable ones too. It may work for you as I think you use longer term MACCI settings than me. I would have thought it might work better with longer timeframe emas (perhaps a 30 min or 60 min chart) to determine trend with short term MACCIs for oscillation within the trend but I'm going to stick with what I've got for the time being.
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Sorry for the lack of posting yesterday. Over enthusiastic housekeeping of my PC required me to remember my t2w password while the market was open which was beyond me as I haven't typed it in for months.
I didn't post at the beginning of this week that I raised my risk amount for position sizing to $200. Did this on Monday (although no trade 'till Tuesday)
Another rather poor day yesterday
9:52 S SNDK 600 44.07 average.
Catalogue of errors. Tried to get in cheaply at the ask @44.12. Was a bit slow entering the order and got a tiny fill. Chased it downwards. In the end I was in for 44.07 average but the problem was I was fighting to get into the position when I should perhaps have been thinking of taking some profit off the table quickly. Market did dip a bit but was in an uptrend overall and I took stops/trailing stops over the next 15 minutes. Should have closed out sooner but because of stupidity on entering the trade I seemed to find it hard to accept the loss early. Hanging on I think in the hope that the market would cover up for me, which of course it would not! Mind closed itself to seeing trend continuation in the $INDU.
300 @ 44.20
200 @ 44.34
100 @44.36
P/L -$134
Not all trades will be winners and Strategy 3 will sometimes put me into trades where the trend continues but I am supposed to read $INDU dispassionately and get out. Had I not messed up the entry I might have taken some profits early and perhaps been flat overall, but where I am really annoyed is that I did not accept the loser quickly and dump it. Having said that I took stops as per the plan so didn't let it run to a dissaster.
13:17 L 1200 VLO
sell 600 @ 54.87
sell 600 @ 54.72 market moved down again
P/L +6
I didn't post at the beginning of this week that I raised my risk amount for position sizing to $200. Did this on Monday (although no trade 'till Tuesday)
Another rather poor day yesterday
9:52 S SNDK 600 44.07 average.
Catalogue of errors. Tried to get in cheaply at the ask @44.12. Was a bit slow entering the order and got a tiny fill. Chased it downwards. In the end I was in for 44.07 average but the problem was I was fighting to get into the position when I should perhaps have been thinking of taking some profit off the table quickly. Market did dip a bit but was in an uptrend overall and I took stops/trailing stops over the next 15 minutes. Should have closed out sooner but because of stupidity on entering the trade I seemed to find it hard to accept the loss early. Hanging on I think in the hope that the market would cover up for me, which of course it would not! Mind closed itself to seeing trend continuation in the $INDU.
300 @ 44.20
200 @ 44.34
100 @44.36
P/L -$134
Not all trades will be winners and Strategy 3 will sometimes put me into trades where the trend continues but I am supposed to read $INDU dispassionately and get out. Had I not messed up the entry I might have taken some profits early and perhaps been flat overall, but where I am really annoyed is that I did not accept the loser quickly and dump it. Having said that I took stops as per the plan so didn't let it run to a dissaster.
13:17 L 1200 VLO
sell 600 @ 54.87
sell 600 @ 54.72 market moved down again
P/L +6
Frustrating day today
Data feed of Tradestation problems for about an hour in late morning session caused me to have to pass on good OB signal and possibly missed an OS signal. Now getting OB signals on breakout from lunchtime range. I've decided not to trade these type of signals and no good weak stocks with reasonable volatility on my list so no trades so far today.
Data feed of Tradestation problems for about an hour in late morning session caused me to have to pass on good OB signal and possibly missed an OS signal. Now getting OB signals on breakout from lunchtime range. I've decided not to trade these type of signals and no good weak stocks with reasonable volatility on my list so no trades so far today.
11:52 OB Signal
S 900 joyg @42.79
covered 42.85 - mkt made new high
P/L -$72
12:02 OB again
S500 RIMM @135.10
covered 200 @134.70 Partial exhaustion -115/-75/-31
trailing stop 300 134.80
P/l + $154 Gave a huge amount back to the market - trying to let it run in what looked like a weak market still counting $ after a difficult week. Must let each trade stand on it's own merits independently of what has gone before.
S 900 joyg @42.79
covered 42.85 - mkt made new high
P/L -$72
12:02 OB again
S500 RIMM @135.10
covered 200 @134.70 Partial exhaustion -115/-75/-31
trailing stop 300 134.80
P/l + $154 Gave a huge amount back to the market - trying to let it run in what looked like a weak market still counting $ after a difficult week. Must let each trade stand on it's own merits independently of what has gone before.
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Made a few errors during the couse of last week which I can see were due to not being relaxed and confident in positions together with the negative effects of a bad start to the week. I am reducing the risk anount for position sizing back to $150. If I still make errors I will revert to paper for a while to regain control.
Gareth
Gareth
OS Signal 12:08
12:15 L 700 ESRX @ 70.84
Sell 300 @ 70.98 - Weak divergence but stock and mkt moving ahead so just scale out 1 min position
Sell 200 @70.00 Another weak divergence and stock volatility dropped so scale out a bit more. Hold some as market moving up slowly.
Mkt looks like retracing a bit and stock has not moved up so close remainder 70.92
P/L +$76
12:15 L 700 ESRX @ 70.84
Sell 300 @ 70.98 - Weak divergence but stock and mkt moving ahead so just scale out 1 min position
Sell 200 @70.00 Another weak divergence and stock volatility dropped so scale out a bit more. Hold some as market moving up slowly.
Mkt looks like retracing a bit and stock has not moved up so close remainder 70.92
P/L +$76
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