Gareth's Strategy 3 Journal

[garethb]

12:57 OB Signal

13:00 S 900 VLO 53.01

13:03 Cover 53.02 INDU made new local high

p/l -27

 

[garethb]

13:06 OB Signal

13:11 S 1100 VLO @53.09

Cover 53.11 Mkt making new high

P/L -44

 

[evostik]

In my view it is best not to Short when the overall market is up unless there is very obvious oscillation which at 10.00am there wasnt. However, you can get a situation where the Dow is in positive territory and the after lunch session is like a new trading day where the market starts moving down relative to where it was at 11.30am and in this circumstance I would consider a Short on a weak stock. I have my alert system set up to automatically show stocks that are close to their high or low of the day. So if INDU goes OB or OS I can immediately see which stocks are best to take a trade on. I also combine this with a volatility and a MAMA / FAMA divergence measure that improves the probability of the trade being successful.


Paul

Hi Paul

Could I ask a couple of questions about what you say above please?

Fistly, in your set-up to identify stocks near their HoD which you will
LONG if MACCI INDU goes OS, do you also consider how much 'room' there
is above the stock (kinda like 'meat in the trade)? If so, what do
suggest as a measure? e.g. upper MPD?

Secondly, when you say "MAMA/FAMA divergence, could you share a little
more on what you mean? I have been plotting MAMA/FAMA on my charts for
a few days (since your comment actually!) but I can not see an obvious
divergence measure to consider, For example, do you mean FAMA
diverging from MAMA?

Any help, as always, appreciated.

Many Thanks

Steve

 

[garethb]

Long vs Short trades

OK so here is an interesting discovery from a reveiw of the first 10 days trades.

Total P/L for all 10 days $509
Total P/L for long trades $700
Total for all short trades -$191 loss

 

[garethb]

Time of Day

Profit for trades entered before 12:00 ET +$450 from 13 trades
Profit for trades entered between 12:00 and 14:00 +$100 from 8 trades
Profit for trades entered after 14:00 -$41 from 4 trades


Not sure there is enough data yet to draw conclusions from that particularly the afternnon ones. Although I haven't calculated it I'm sure profit per share would lean even more in favour of morning session as intraday trades are generally smaller earlier in the day.

edit

If I have one qualitative analysis of the afternoon issue it could be that after a period of narrow range movement at lunchtime MACCI gives signals fairly easily and is giving countertrend signals at the start of any early afternoon trend developing..

 

[Trader333]

Fistly, in your set-up to identify stocks near their HoD which you will
LONG if MACCI INDU goes OS, do you also consider how much 'room' there
is above the stock (kinda like 'meat in the trade)? If so, what do
suggest as a measure? e.g. upper MPD?

I dont consider how much room there is in the trade other than by volatility.

For example, do you mean FAMA diverging from MAMA?

Yes this is exactly what I was referring to.


Paul

 

[garethb]

12:12 OB Signal

12:15 S 700 klac @ 50.67

12:26 Cover 700 50.68 - mkt moving against it

P/L - $21 real money this time. Sorry posting was not more timely but trading with real money changed my priorities a bit.

Its a loss but I felt calm and followed my rules I think

 

[garethb]

12:54 OB Signal

12:55 S 600 aapl 84.77
12:57 Cover 600 @ 84.86 market moved against it - suffered slippage on a rather rushed market order

P/L -$66


OB Signal repeated

S 600 aapl 84.78

stopped 300 84.90 - stopped in 1 min tf

13:22 Covered 300 @ 84.35 - EE -96/-136/-126

P/L +$81

Overall P/L today so far -$6 according to my calcs but my account says -$4.94 as commissions aren't quite the 1c each way I use to calculate. Never had so much "fun" spending $5


Getting yet another OB signal as I write but I think this might be one of those trend thingies Paul is always telling me off about - INDU is +45 . Also FOMC minutes approaching so I will stop for now

 

[garethb]

11:24 OB signal
market continued up until 11:33

S 900 sndk @ 46.46

11:44 cover 400 @ 46.37 - mkt moving above short consolidation in 1 min tf
11:49 cover 500 @ 46.37 mkt made new local high

p/l +$63

 

[garethb]

13:07 OB Signal

13:09 S 1100 VLO @ 53.44

13:19 cover 500 @ 53.32 Partial exhuastion EE -103/-124/-55

13:30 cover 600 @ 53.18 Exhaustion + lower mpd + mkt not really breaking down
EE -106/-99/-108

P/L +194


Another OB signal as I type but $INDU > 50 and its been looking like a potential breakout to uptrend for a while so let it go. VLO still looking weak though

 

[garethb]

15:18 OB Signal. Indu > 50 but I don't think we are breaking out from here

15:20 S 700 VLO 52.67

15:46 Cover 500 52.55 Partial exhaustion and running out of time on the day so close whole position

P/L + $70

 

[vegas]

15:18 OB Signal. Indu > 50 but I don't think we are breaking out from here

15:20 S 700 VLO 52.67

15:46 Cover 500 52.55 Partial exhaustion and running out of time on the day so close whole position

P/L + $70

Hi Gareth,

Just to say congratulations on your trading results to day.

Frank.

 

[garethb]

Thanks Vegas

Things seemed to work well today - signals played out. Trying to judge each trade and each day according to the rules rather than whether it was a profit or loss. Will take stock again on P/L, % winners etc after 5 days with real money.

Regards

Gareth

 

[Grey1]

Thanks Vegas

Things seemed to work well today - signals played out. Trying to judge each trade and each day according to the rules rather than whether it was a profit or loss. Will take stock again on P/L, % winners etc after 5 days with real money.

Regards

Gareth

your performance is gr8 .. Always expect a loss on strong trading day such as yesterday as NO oscillator could cope with trending days and EE is no exception , The good news is the market oscillates 75% of the time

grey1

 

[garethb]

12:10 OB Signal

12:13 S 700 47.11

12:18 cover 700 46.99 Platform problems so closed it

p/l +70

 

[samtron]

12:10 OB Signal

12:13 S 700 47.11

12:18 cover 700 46.99 Platform problems so closed it

p/l +70

stock?

 

[garethb]

Sorry that was expd

PC rebooted and another OB signal @ 12:33

12:36 S 700 expd again 46.96

13:18 cover 700 46.90 volatility in stock dropped to nothing. I think it's still weak but could break either way and gun stops from here

p/l +28

 

[garethb]

13:58 OS Signal

14:12 L 1000 gild 69.15

out 500 @ 69.35 partial exhaustion

out 200 69.33 - market seemed to be moving down - tried to close but partial fill then changed my mind lol

out 300 @69.21 trailing stop - should have finished the exit at 69.33 - coulda woulda shoulda

p/l + 134

 

[samtron]

13:58 OS Signal

14:12 L 1000 gild 69.15

out 500 @ 69.35 partial exhaustion

great choice of stock!
I went for joyg at the same time and it went nowhere
(i'll shut up now because I don't want to mess up your thread)

 

[garethb]

No problem Samtron all contributions welcome

Stock selection is critical. Wednesday I was watching 3 stocks for shorts I tried KLAC and lost then tried AAPL and lost once then made it back for almost flat but the third stock I was watching but didn't trade went through the floor (EXPD I think it was)

The thing I have changed over the last couple of weeks in choosing stocks is to really not bother about the stock MACCI values or the potential move to MPD. Just go for the weakest or strongest stocks.

I'm stopping for the week now

Regards

Gareth

edit: to be honest I could easily have picked JOYG at the time it looked pretty strong. I didn't even look at it, I think because it was underwater for much of the earlier part of the day.