FX Trading May 28 - June 1

[a_gnome]

No, I'm trying the market matrix and IF (and that's a big IF) I've calculated it correctly, then we should have a turn point today.

Hi Jilly,
I'd be very interested to hear how you get on with the Market Matrix. I've heard all the hype but does it actually translate into profits? If you could keep posting the MM forecasts for cable then we could all follow along and get a sense of how well it works.

 

[hornblower]

Morning all
I have not been trading the last few days

I trade break outs and I position trade
at the moment the price action is that , I just cannot trade it
I am just waiting for a price correction

tempted to trade, but I just think its a great way to lose money
just going to sit on the side lines

 

[JohnG FX]

I'm still working with the Market Matrix cd's at the moment, so this is very much work in progress - and we'll see if my (the matrix's) prediction is correct over the next few days. If it is, then I'll think about posting more of the turn points.

Hi there Jilly

I've got a slightly different count to you atm, I was originaly looking for my ITD 10 to come in after todays line, but that didn't tie in with my MTD 10 high due on the 30th so have counted 3rd March ITD 1 low as an inversion which if I'm right means the 1.9899 high we had last Friday is an ITD 9 so I'm looking for it to stay below there and head down into ITD 10 next week.

Any pop up today after/into NFP I'm looking as a shorting opportunity with stops above 1.99

1.9837-1.9864 would be ideal.

 

[atholh]

Couple of charts showing ranges for the majors on NFP days.

 

[trendie]

Hi there Jilly

I've got a slightly different count to you atm, I was originaly looking for my ITD 10 to come in after todays line, but that didn't tie in with my MTD 10 high due on the 30th so have counted 3rd March ITD 1 low as an inversion which if I'm right means the 1.9899 high we had last Friday is an ITD 9 so I'm looking for it to stay below there and head down into ITD 10 next week.

Any pop up today after/into NFP I'm looking as a shorting opportunity with stops above 1.99

1.9837-1.9864 would be ideal.

JohnG FX,

thanks for posting a Delta chart, these have been doing my head in!
The thing I dont understand is why you count the events around the 03/03 red line as an inversion. (this may go to explain why I cant get it to work for me)

looking at the patterns on the red-line of 11/05 going into the blue-line (note the position of points 3 to 4), I would see a correlation of the same pattern of red-line 03/03, where I would count the (1) as the 2, the 2 as the 3, etc.
to my eyes that seems "neater", esp the surge from 2 to 3, just before the blue-line.
I know the rules are that the points must be high-low-high, or low-high-low, but dont know if there are any extra rules about certain highs and lows being not "taken out".
(unless you are adding in any Elliott wave count consderations)

from my perspective, I dont see the inversion! or maybe I am being too pedantic about the aesthetics of the patterns.

 

[zuke]

Well, not long to go and I still have my 9795 short (stop at 9825, target 1 9735 s/o thereafter) and but have closed my Dow short (for +7), until after the news.

good luck all!

 

[JohnG FX]

JohnG FX,

thanks for posting a Delta chart, these have been doing my head in!
The thing I dont understand is why you count the events around the 03/03 red line as an inversion. (this may go to explain why I cant get it to work for me)

looking at the patterns on the red-line of 11/05 going into the blue-line (note the position of points 3 to 4), I would see a correlation of the same pattern of red-line 03/03, where I would count the (1) as the 2, the 2 as the 3, etc.
to my eyes that seems "neater", esp the surge from 2 to 3, just before the blue-line.
I know the rules are that the points must be high-low-high, or low-high-low, but dont know if there are any extra rules about certain highs and lows being not "taken out".
(unless you are adding in any Elliott wave count consderations)

from my perspective, I dont see the inversion! or maybe I am being too pedantic about the aesthetics of the patterns.

Hi trendie.

EW does come into it. will try and give you a better explanation later today after the data if that's ok ?

Edit : if the larger move is down then lows come on time or later and highs come earlier and vice versa

 

[smbtnt]

Remain short or fade any £ strength, that seems to be the general consensus on most boards, this worries me....

 

[JillyB]

Hi there Jilly

I've got a slightly different count to you atm, I was originaly looking for my ITD 10 to come in after todays line, but that didn't tie in with my MTD 10 high due on the 30th so have counted 3rd March ITD 1 low as an inversion which if I'm right means the 1.9899 high we had last Friday is an ITD 9 so I'm looking for it to stay below there and head down into ITD 10 next week.

Any pop up today after/into NFP I'm looking as a shorting opportunity with stops above 1.99

1.9837-1.9864 would be ideal.

That's intersting as you have 12 turn points for the Cable. The market matrix newsletter shows 10 with a turn point just before today's full moon - hence my call of yesterday.

Now you've got me worried - I'm still holding on buy trade from this morning with my target at 20 pips. If I'd been at my computer when NFP came in I probably would have accepted a smaller profit, but now I'm back in losing territory.

 

[Crap Buddist]

hmm, well long 1.9786, got short term upside holding up, intermediate down, but on NFP I'll hold with the short term, because by the time the intermediate turns up, it might all be over. Or a huge filthy follow through

65- 80 zone, well seems to be more pressure to the upside of that at the mo. Holding long for now. Sub 1.9785 "cheap as chips" for longs, but for how long ,I ask

Guess everyones waiting for a break of the swing points gone in ?

hmm if we get upside in the next 10/15 mins, that will bring the intermediate up, so good for longs, meaning I'll hold any shaftback sub 1.9780. just hope it doesnt coincide with an interstella dump cable signal and all the martians pile in and sell like asians.

apart from that, quite dull so far.

 

[wasp]

Well, what was once upon a time the easiest 150 pips a month (in an hour tops) has now become the most pointless day...

 

[Crap Buddist]

-11 sold 1.9775. lets see what happens, euros taken a battering, cable held quite well. hope i dont get whipped.

 

[Crap Buddist]

This ****ers defying the law's of gravity. Fair play cable holding out bless it. Short term bearish ,intermediate bearish, hence reverse short 75. Now I would of like to held for short 1.9785 or better, but when im in a position, its threat to longs, so decide to reverse. But I do swear if its trades back up.

But I never know if the downside will just keep running so Sell, without waiting.

And I did. Lets see if it takes out the low .

 

[wasp]

-11 sold 1.9775. lets see what happens, euros taken a battering, cable held quite well. hope i dont get whipped.

The thing is though that euro is taking a battering across the board, not just the eur/usd

 

[JER08]

longed cable 9800,It's got to move,one way or another.

 

[Crap Buddist]

I cant do anything, funnily enough Oanda dropped offline, still is my side on that prod 1.9800, ive got a stop 31. frozen out at the mo.

 

[wasp]

mover of the week has to go to gbp/nzd I think!

sadly no I didn't trade it but considering how much I've just lost in exchange rates I really wish I had!

 

[Offshore Trader]

What a rubbish day.....tiny range on cable and it's nfp day..what's going on????....let's hope for better things next week, there must a decent breakout coming...good w/e all

 

[JillyB]

Below is the daily Cable chart with the Market Matrix points on it. The points from September 2006 to March 2007, I took from the MM newsletter, so I'm pretty certain that these are ok. From March I've just projected forward the points and this gives a turn just before the full moon today.

The only thing I'm not sure about is the low point 5 at the beginning of May as this seems a bit of a CMC anomily. The low could actually be the one shown later before the high of 6.

 

[JillyB]

Well in the end today, I took break-even on my trade. I was so tired of waiting - that I got my other half to reset my OCO so that it would get out at break-even. And now what's happened...... it's continued to go up. Bum! I didn't stick to my trading plan - however I am looking at it and wondering if I should revise the targets, due to the current lack of volatility - I'll give it some more thought over the weekend.

My trading system made 27 this week - profitable, but decidedly lack lustre. Where has all the movement gone - the Cable used to move nicely every day, but now that totally seems to have disappeared.

I totally agree with you Wasp, and Offshore Trader, I've seen more movement on non-news days than I have today!

Well, I'm off to get ready to go out tonight - so I'll see you all on Sunday evening. Have a nice weekend everyone.