FX Trading June 18 to 22

[Crap Buddist]

mmm, yes, that too. guess a slow computer or alcohol have that effect.

but honest, i wonder if the reduced daily ranges on cable are having a direct effect on the speed of the moves. i am a bit concerned the market is changing a lot there. wonder if now it means we will get slower, smaller but smother moves.

Ive been visualising it in my head (last few days), these series of daily ranges recently region 60-80, And cant help thinking an expansion from range is not far off. Now the 64 millions of dollars questions is which way. ?

Is this the grind up triggering buy orders to position people long for the dump ? Or is it the grinding up that will lead to parabolic upthrust heading towards the moon.

Longer term and a quick eyeball of the dailies to me says cable is not finished with longer term process of $2 and upwards. Nowhere near done yet. I think 1.92 would have to go to signal cables retreat south. Until then this beast is going higher.

Short term, daily bump and grind, lessons in patience a plenty.

Maybe someone who focuses deeply on dailies and longer can give a more indepth analysis regards the direction spring from these tight ranges.

Anything above 5 min charts is strange to me these days you can tell that because I play noughts and crosses on them ...... lol

 

[wasp]

I also remember, before DC2000 stopped posting, he would still be calling 300 this way then 200 the other and the newbies would be like, 'yeah right, no way in a week' as he was still living in 2004 like some of us. think we have to adapt to smaller ranges and up the stakes popssibly to get the same returns.

Or get real jobs

 

[jacinto]

This has been most noticeable over the last 6 months and breakout strategies, despite a long successful history, have failed to produce anything like the returns previously seen. I wonder in cable's case, whether it has anything to do with the proximity to $2 and the physcology of that?

that could be true also,

however, and this is something i dont understand, looking at the dailys, look at the falls vs the rallys

Edit: actually, thinking of it, that is agood point, the $2 level and its psychology, make me look at a monthly chart and reversals. I wonder if there is a correlation.

 

[Crap Buddist]

that could be true also,

however, and this is something i dont understand, looking at the dailys, look at the falls vs the rallys

OK now what would you think if that was a 5 or 15 minute chart ? Doesnt look like a dead duck yet.

 

[jacinto]

OK now what would you think if that was a 5 or 15 minute chart ? Doesnt look like a dead duck yet.

dunno really, but to see daily ranges going from 200, down to 120, down to 80, kind of makes you think. probably risk-reward is not so nice anymore.

 

[wasp]

OK now what would you think if that was a 5 or 15 minute chart ? Doesnt look like a dead duck yet.

Here is a 30 minute using now and the furthest my charts would scroll back. look at the difference in the candles/bars/whatever!!! :cheesy:

 

[Crap Buddist]

Even looking at the monthly chart Jacinto, looks like this beast has overdosed on Viagra pills. Its a stonker ! Look at that recent trend angle going up...

Its very stiff looking...... see that on a 5 minute chart and I think here we go they aint letting this down yet.

 

[wasp]

...maybe all this is the calm before the storm though... hopefully!

att. this year vs same time last year, look at the difference in candle sizes here! (600 pt range '06 and 300 in '07)

 

[zuke]

Stopped out for -30 on final lot, b/e for trade. Now Short 9919, SL 9949, TP1, 9879

Still holding this short..against the tide, but "the plans, the plan"

 

[Crap Buddist]

dunno really, but to see daily ranges going from 200, down to 120, down to 80, kind of makes you think. probably risk-reward is not so nice anymore.

Yes it has been a bit of an anti climax maybe with the odd quick thrust then hours and hours of grinding. And I can see why some traders will look to see whats hot and apply the same approach, what FX pair thats dealable is moving more. I dont but I can understand why some do.

And yes I also think $2 is a big big psyche number how many bars dailes etc might it oscilate around that number? well weve all been involved in round numbers being thrashed around I dare say for 50 bars or so maybe more around a psyche number intra session, apply that to dailies and we might get months of scrapping about. ditto weeklies etc...


I suppose then this is were fundamentals might help to analyse further uk rates increase what the yanks gonna do etc..... you can kind of sense the market knows now its positioning people to fuel the follow through.

I dont know.. but yes tighter ranges then it makes sense to employ a strat to account for this, or other options like another market thats moving if thats preferable to the trader..

good point you raised though, tight its been.

 

[wasp]

June/July, throughout the years...

2001 > 700
2002 > 1200
2003 > 1000
2004 > 700
2005 > 1000
2006 > 600
2007 > 300

 

[jacinto]

yep, its tight, and its slow. mayby wont upgrade my memory then

 

[wasp]

yep, its tight, and its slow. mayby wont upgrade my memory then

I'd spend the money on some good books to pass the time!

 

[Offshore Trader]

Re the volatility...if you were looking at this statistically, rather than emotionally, you would have to regard the recent price action as a blip,rather than a change and a much longer period is required before you can say that the market has changed. Based on wasps figures above, you could have concluded that cable volatility was in terminal decline leading up to 2004 but it then bounced the following year.

I continue to believe that the current activity is only temporary and that we will see more volatility in the future but obviously as time goes on, my conviction will become less and less. Trending and volatile markets are what all traders want, including the big players and so it is only the interests of governments and corporates to have narrow ranges.

 

[jacinto]

Re the volatility...if you were looking at this statistically, rather than emotionally, you would have to regard the recent price action as a blip,rather than a change and a much longer period is required before you can say that the market has changed. Based on wasps figures above, you could have concluded that cable volatility was in terminal decline leading up to 2004 but it then bounced the following year.

I continue to believe that the current activity is only temporary and that we will see more volatility in the future but obviously as time goes on, my conviction will become less and less. Trending and volatile markets are what all traders want, including the big players and so it is only the interests of governments and corporates to have narrow ranges.

agree. also wonder if volatility itself has its own cycles. that i dont know.

i wonder if the implied volatilities in options are saying something.

 

[JTrader]

yep, its tight, and its slow. mayby wont upgrade my memory then

I'd say buy the memory now!

I'm an idiot with things like this - shall i? shan't i etc.? and do nothing. Then i realsie that if i'd have done it/bought it (ow whatever) at the time i'd first thought of it/planned it, it would have been done long since! I usually then do it eventually!

But adding 1gb memory for 22 pound, 50 pence (pound button not working!) has been well worth it! Even if just for checking emails.

 

[Atilla]

I'd say buy the memory now!

I'm an idiot with things like this - shall i? shan't i etc.? and do nothing. Then i realsie that if i'd have done it/bought it (ow whatever) at the time i'd first thought of it/planned it, it would have been done long since! I usually then do it eventually!

But adding 1gb memory for 22 pound, 50 pence (pound button not working!) has been well worth it! Even if just for checking emails.

If in doubt - don't do it.


Doubt undermines the foundations of everything it touches :!:

 

[Crap Buddist]

Poss Break higher's coming i'm going long 39 if that comes first.

 

[Crap Buddist]

Might get an entry sub 30 either or.... but still up pressure...

 

[Crap Buddist]

Nightmare, charts stopped updating, had to reboot em. long 1.9936, top whack of a price. see what happens.

Jacintos curse on my drive...