FX Trading April 23 - April 27

[Uphios]

For what it's worth I am expecting a fairly substanstial drop on the DOW, at least to 12680 in fairly short order. I think the knock on effect of this will be a strengthing of the $ across the market (except against the YEN), but I am not sure which one will trigger the other. So, short DOW, DAX and cable. I think the USDJPY will go no lower than 117.30 area and that will be my trigger to get long cable, DOW and either USDJPY ot USDCHF. Further forward I do not expect cable or DOW to get substantialy higher than they have already touched, this will be my exit but I have no idea what happens next so I will go on the sideline, assuming of course that all of this happens.

edit. some figures for time of posting.:- DOW 12924, DAX 7303, cable 1.9998, USDJPY 118.66, USDCHF 1.2093

 

[Atilla]

For what it's worth I am expecting a fairly substanstial drop on the DOW, at least to 12680 in fairly short order. I think the knock on effect of this will be a strengthing of the $ across the market (except against the YEN), but I am not sure which one will trigger the other. So, short DOW, DAX and cable. I think the USDJPY will go no lower than 117.30 area and that will be my trigger to get long cable, DOW and either USDJPY ot USDCHF. Further forward I do not expect cable or DOW to get substantialy higher than they have already touched, this will be my exit but I have no idea what happens next so I will go on the sideline, assuming of course that all of this happens.

edit. some figures for time of posting.:- DOW 12924, DAX 7303, cable 1.9998, USDJPY 118.66, USDCHF 1.2093

That is 100% my sentiments and so spooky. You might be my lost twin.

I had another good session overnight. Be an interesting day to see if cable closes above or below $2. I reckon we might see 1.9920 levels sometime today.

As for Euro I have a limit set at 1.3530.

I still have the direction "Due South" for the pair.

Good trading everyone...

 

[Offshore Trader]

Uphios, am I right in understanding that if USD/JPY falls to 117.30, then you will buy that or USD/JPY and cable because it is unlikely that both will rise sustainably, surely? Aren't you effectively buying the GBP/JPY or CHF cross?

 

[29Investments]

That is 100% my sentiments and so spooky. You might be my lost twin.

I had another good session overnight. Be an interesting day to see if cable closes above or below $2. I reckon we might see 1.9920 levels sometime today.

As for Euro I have a limit set at 1.3530.

I still have the direction "Due South" for the pair.

Good trading everyone...

Was just watching CNBC where a technical anayst from ODL securities has just forecast a 12-15% drop on the DOW starting early to mid May.

Not sure why equity falls will strengthen the dollar though ? Isnt it true that when the dow is rising people are buying USD to pay for US stocks. If it is falling the reverse may happen ?

 

[Atilla]

Was just watching CNBC where a technical anayst from ODL securities has just forecast a 12-15% drop on the DOW starting early to mid May.

Not sure why equity falls will strengthen the dollar though ? Isnt it true that when the dow is rising people are buying USD to pay for US stocks. If it is falling the reverse may happen ?

Yep this is a tricky one.

1. DOW falls, less activity and supply of dollars in circulation so it rises or

2. DOW falls, likely to lead to possible fall in rates to stimulate economy so dollar may fall

I go with option 1 as a fall in US economic activity likely to mean less $ expenditures.

 

[Atilla]

Interesting stats coming out on PSBR

GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (British pounds) (MAR) 8:30 4:30 15.6B 1.9B
GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (British pounds) (MAR) 8:30 4:30 7.2B 1.0B


Likely to move the £ one way or another...

 

[Phil Mibbutz]

Not sure about the effect on cable, but I certainly agree that the Dow must be ripe for shorting.

 

[jacinto]

at this rate, cable will be as volatile as EURGBP

a 5 pip move make it seem like a breakout

 

[29Investments]

at this rate, cable will be as volatile as EURGBP

a 5 pip move make it seem like a breakout

I think Mr King may have rectified that for you

Where now though - must confess to being rather confused at this point.

 

[jacinto]

I think Mr King may have rectified that for you

Where now though - must confess to being rather confused at this point.

good he did, I was starting to think i should simply forget about cable forever and turn japanese :cheesy:

j

 

[29Investments]

If we go under $2 again I will risk a small short for another run at 950 stop at 025

Am also watching the close of this hourly bar to see whether we close above or below the daily pivot point at 2.0008

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

May as well do some short term bread and butter trades for today.



Sold GBPUSD at 2.0019 (for exit at 1.9920)

Stop at 2.0070


TPF

 

[29Investments]

May as well do some short term bread and butter trades for today.



Sold GBPUSD at 2.0019 (for exit at 1.9920)

Stop at 2.0070


TPF

I reckon thats a good entry - you caught it right on the top of the trend channel - Good luck

 

[81supertrader]

Anyone trade USDCAD ? CAD interest Statement due out in 2 hours will market move small or large for this?

 

[29Investments]

Very quiet on here today

Anyone in a position on cable and feel like sharing their thoughts - come on you lurkers

 

[hornblower]

Very quiet on here today

Anyone in a position on cable and feel like sharing their thoughts - come on you lurkers

Its very Quiet because there is very little going on
when it pick s up, and i have something to say then,
I will say it
I can see no point in posting
when there is very little to say , and trading is a wast e of time

have a nice day

 

[29Investments]

Its very Quiet because there is very little going on
when it pick s up, and i have something to say then,
I will say it
I can see no point in posting
when there is very little to say , and trading is a wast e of time

have a nice day

Oh well

If there were any lurkers contemplating a post that should put them off.

Personally I think we're at quite an interesting junction here. We have cable initially consolidating above $2, now it seems it has run out of steam and cant hold it.

IMHO it is sigificant that Mervyn King standing up and saying he is "determined" to bring inflation down pronto has such a small (and short term) effect. It would seem to indicate that the bulls have indeed run out of steam and we could be looking lower over then next few days.

 

[jacinto]

Very quiet on here today

Anyone in a position on cable and feel like sharing their thoughts - come on you lurkers

coyote wave in action to 2.0050

 

[81supertrader]

Very Quiet, If US consumer confidence comes in under expectation then volatility we want may be good.

 

[Ziff]

Very quiet on here today

Anyone in a position on cable and feel like sharing their thoughts - come on you lurkers

A lurker - who me ?

More of a FTSE trader and have been dipping my toe in the world of forex but cable just seems so slow today ............... well for me anyway.

I was hoping for all these 100 pip plus straight line moves