FX Trading April 23 - April 27

[Atilla]

Oh well

If there were any lurkers contemplating a post that should put them off.

Personally I think we're at quite an interesting junction here. We have cable initially consolidating above $2, now it seems it has run out of steam and cant hold it.

IMHO it is sigificant that Mervyn King standing up and saying he is "determined" to bring inflation down pronto has such a small (and short term) effect. It would seem to indicate that the bulls have indeed run out of steam and we could be looking lower over then next few days.

Stats to be released...

USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (APR) 14:00 10:00 -6 -10
USD Consumer Confidence (APR) 14:00 10:00 105 107.2
USD Existing Home Sales (MAR) 14:00 10:00 6.50M 6.69M
USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (MAR) 14:00 10:00 -2.8% 3.9%

Should spice things up a little.

Hang on in there. I'm out of both Euro and Cable at the mo as there seems to be a little bounce but looking to short again.

 

[29Investments]

Defintie correlation between equities and cable being seen this afternoon.

S&P low was at 3:30pm, cable high at 3:24pm........since then S&P has risen 68 pips and cable has fallen 38

Edit: Now back below daily pivot at 2.0007

 

[pipper]

Well, I closed out my USDJPY position this morning for a 9 pip profit. Haven't taken any other positions. Think I'll call it a day and hope for a more productive tomorrow.

 

[Atilla]

Well, I closed out my USDJPY position this morning for a 9 pip profit. Haven't taken any other positions. Think I'll call it a day and hope for a more productive tomorrow.

Today's been very good.

Still short on both at the mo. I think the moves in the DOW & SPX made the day... Looking at closing shop and putting feet too.

Euro trying to break out of 1.3640 but not convinced it can do so yet. Expect another fall and cable still trying hold the $2 and not convinced of that either.

Wondering if I should close positions or leave it over night. Any other lurkers still out there with a view?

All points of view gratefuly accepted. Please donate generously...

 

[oiltanker]

hi everyone

i mainly trade forex although a bit of ftse if it looks good.

shorted cable, yen and euro since friday. took combined limit order 109 pt profit [79 pts of cable] on monday morning which easily covered the cost of weekend position.

re-established shorts on mon highs and took 23pt yen and 24 pt cable profit through limit orders tues morning with euro short still 'cooking' with small limit order although that might go ballistic up toward 1.7 which means i might get stuck with it for a week or so!

Re established both long term and short term shorts on todays [tues] highs. 118.90 yen short looking nice.

how weak is the dollar? some reckon it could go to 2.006. euro is strong with big support although maybe a bit slow due to french elections? 1.38 is poss after technical dip?

uk interest rates look a one way bet for the next 6 months?

the white whale under the water is china that, like in feb, could upset all these highs ?

 

[2be]

Head and shoulder on cable 15 min @ 30 min charts poss short for 20+ pps

 

[29Investments]

Head and shoulder on cable 15 min @ 30 min charts poss short for 20+ pps

Looked good didnt it - getting a bit messy/lopsided now though. Am still staying short below 2.0060 though

 

[pipper]

Today's been very good.

Still short on both at the mo. I think the moves in the DOW & SPX made the day... Looking at closing shop and putting feet too.

Euro trying to break out of 1.3640 but not convinced it can do so yet. Expect another fall and cable still trying hold the $2 and not convinced of that either.

Wondering if I should close positions or leave it over night. Any other lurkers still out there with a view?

All points of view gratefuly accepted. Please donate generously...

I got a short signal for cable but Euro I have a long. Good luck.

 

[2be]

Looked good didn't it - getting a bit messy/lopsided now though. Am still staying short below 2.0060 though

Clearly the Head and shoulder didn't fulfil its potential, I shall leave it over night with a tight SL and a Limit @9990, overall the picture is favouring S, M, and L term uptrend on cable, confirmed by the robust defence of 20000 level today. The big institutions didn't suffer the adverse psychology of the exact big round numbers today. Another short visit below 20000 is still very possible.

 

[Atilla]

I got a short signal for cable but Euro I have a long. Good luck.

Thanks pipper, I eventually decide to close both positions.

Looking at the charts now I agree Euro is on an up trend and Cable still heading down. However, using the Standard Error Channel Euro is either likely to turn down to 1.3575 levels for a breather or do a BB break out on the 4 hour charts.

As for cable on the same charts the trend is down but it looks like it may break out to the upside of the down trend.

I'm staying out over night.

No point in over trading...

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

Sold EURUSD at 1.3638

Stop at 1.3670


TPF

 

[counter_violent]

Sold EURUSD at 1.3638

Stop at 1.3670


TPF

Interesting choice...any particular reason why ?

 

[oiltanker]

awoke to find one of the jpy shorts had limited giving 34pts. A nice way to start the day! set up another small short order for around 118.58

longer term Cable and euro shorts deep in red on this mornings bounce but the cable still looks good so i did a small short at 2.0058 and stuck in a few short orders higher up.
did a small euro short at 1.3651

is this decision week for the euro? its looks overbought and it would make sense for a correction/stagnation before going higher up?

 

[oiltanker]

2 cable shorts just limited giving another 30 pts. not sure what to do now. 2.0060 looks like a resistance so i'll try another small short order there.

i missed the ftse bounce. is it sainsbury?

 

[jacinto]

morning

good news
sprog back to school

bad news:

with my luck, today will end up being a spike prone day due to news announcements.

good trading

j

 

[dc2000]

stilll waiting for cable to SHOW ME THE MONEY

for the Dow thats just bobbing around waiting to do a false drop next week into the first part of May before rising another 1000 points in the next 5 months

 

[29Investments]

You long or short DC, I remember you had a hard stop at 970

 

[Atilla]

2 cable shorts just limited giving another 30 pts. not sure what to do now. 2.0060 looks like a resistance so i'll try another small short order there.

i missed the ftse bounce. is it sainsbury?

Morning all,

Reading about the housing news from the US, here is a small extract...

Federal Reserve policy makers including Chairman Ben S. Bernanke have repeatedly said this year that housing presents a risk to their outlook for ``moderate'' growth. Still, officials reiterated at last month's meeting that inflation was their bigger concern and said higher interest rates may still be needed. The Fed next meets May 9.

Once again, mixed signals which to me means the Fed will do nothing. They will not raise rates and the sluggish slow economy with inflationary pressures will continue.

In fact I would go far as to say not only are we getting mixed signals we are getting confusing ones where Bernanke commented on growth needing to be balanced with inflation. Emphasising economic growth as a consideration factor other than inflation. This smacks of political interference to me and goes against monetarist theory. Fancy going into the elections with a full recession in swing :cheesy:

With the ECB likely to raise their rates along with BoE, dollar still has some sinking to do.

The first chart shows the trend for the last few months and I've picked out a consistent pattern which seems to be repeating it self. In then next week or so I see the Euro touching 1.37+ regions.

However, in the short term as on the second chart I've taken the same gradient line and identified a top from where I expect the Euro to fall from probably towards 1.3550 regions.

I've shorted Euro again @ 1.3647, target is 1.3575.

Sorry about going to town on the StdErrChannels but it's another experiment...

Good trading everyone.

 

[dc2000]

You long or short DC, I remember you had a hard stop at 970

Im long from Monday, I had a trade Friday which was cancelled by the broker ( first time ever) this could have been a problem as I was then left with a sell order at 968 and had left the computer for the day

 

[The Pearl Fisher]

Im long from Monday, I had a trade Friday which was cancelled by the broker ( first time ever) this could have been a problem as I was then left with a sell order at 968 and had left the computer for the day

How and why was your trade cancelled by a broker? Which broker?

I’ll have to sift through my trades, see if any of my loosing trades got cancelled as well. Thanks for the heads up DC.