FX 2007 > Week 26 - 30 Mar

[rav700]

fxcm now gone long from 97 target 835 stop 625 - worried about overbought hourlies but piling in anyway

I am baffled by fxcm to be honest.....This is from their currency rooms......
British Pound May Make One More High
Monday, 26 March 2007 13:42:00 GMT
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Written by Jamie Saettele, Currency Analyst
From Friday, “we are expecting a pullback with support at 1.9556 (prior 4th wave). 1.9693 is most likely the top of wave B within an A-B-C correction that began at 1.9729. We are looking for a C wave to complete the 4th wave correction and end near 1.9556.” With the pair bouncing at 1.9569 this morning and the decline from 1.9729 looking corrective, there is little reason to change our outlook for one more new high (above 1.9729). If price comes under 1.9569, then the next support is at the 38.2% of 1.9213-1.9729 at 1.9531. Regarding the longer term trend, only a decline below 1.9436 indicates additional bearish potential.

So if they have gone long why the discreptancy in Technical.....Analysis writen by one of their analysts......

 

[rav700]

I agree with you Hornblower....I am just going to let my position role and move my stop untill she decides to give me some profit.....I mean what else can I do.......

Priceman.....I have just had a hard week thanks for your hope to my trading success....

I will come back but in the meanwhile will just update my trade on hear that I have open and let you know how many pips I am up and down......

Just FYI again unless I have not repeated this a 1000 times already....

Short @ 1.9689 and Stop @ 1.9850 and I am looking for late 500's early would be ace...but I doubt it.....

I will move my stop to another 100 point if neccessary.....but will deal with this position when the time comes.....
Where is DC when you need him...bless in S.A sipping on courvoisier

Any advice on my trade place would be appreciated from you master traders......

Happy Trading
Thanks for you support Guys......

 

[Atilla]

Hi guys,

Just thought I join you in reflecting on the poohey day with cable. Here is my autopsy fwiw... Crystal clear now.

Here is the afternoon development of my chart I posted early this morning. Was expecting a break down out of the BB at around 1.9680 regions. (3rd red arrow).

Clearly a downward trend as shown by parallel lines. Also supported by my MAs.

I already had a short position, small one and wanting to add to it in an anticipated break down. Along comes an errand and I have to leave my station. I'm thinking my SL at 645 is way above upper BBand around 1.9635 area. Deliberately set above 640.

Upon reflection my strategy and TA was correct. I think from about 10am onwards, it's got to be the news and the market announcement that takes cable through to 1.9700 regions. Not much I can do. Life has to go on. CMC do mobile phone trading but don't you hate mobile phones?

However, if I was at my terminal, looking at my TA, 1.9640 where the break out occurs (green arrow) would have been the spot to reverse position (with the BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT )

What next. Well seeing BBands wide appart and MAs in upward direction calling the top and going short is risky VERY BAD MOVE like adding to losing position. So I will stay out and wait for BBs to narrow again.

Will I trade? Nooooo No No No... Nottt nowww... Vengence can wait till tomorrow...

Rav mate, if you are already in a short pos. then candles look like topping out so I probably would stay in for a fib retrace to at least 23%.

But your call. Just thinking out aloud for my self. Good luck to you and everyone else...

 

[rav700]

Hi guys,

Just thought I join you in reflecting on the poohey day with cable. Here is my autopsy fwiw... Crystal clear now.

Here is the afternoon development of my chart I posted early this morning. Was expecting a break down out of the BB at around 1.9680 regions. (3rd red arrow).

Clearly a downward trend as shown by parallel lines. Also supported by my MAs.

I already had a short position, small one and wanting to add to it in an anticipated break down. Along comes an errand and I have to leave my station. I'm thinking my SL at 645 is way above upper BBand around 1.9635 area. Deliberately set above 640.

Upon reflection my strategy and TA was correct. I think from about 10am onwards, it's got to be the news and the market announcement that takes cable through to 1.9700 regions. Not much I can do. Life has to go on. CMC do mobile phone trading but don't you hate mobile phones?

However, if I was at my terminal, looking at my TA, 1.9640 where the break out occurs (green arrow) would have been the spot to reverse position (with the BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT )

What next. Well seeing BBands wide appart and MAs in upward direction calling the top and going short is risky VERY BAD MOVE like adding to losing position. So I will stay out and wait for BBs to narrow again.

Will I trade? Nooooo No No No... Nottt nowww... Vengence can wait till tomorrow...

Rav mate, if you are already in a short pos. then candles look like topping out so I probably would stay in for a fib retrace to at least 23%.

But your call. Just thinking out aloud for my self. Good luck to you and everyone else...

Thanks Atilla
As I said any advice would be appreciated...

I think I am an okay trader....
Make about 300-400 pips a month without any major problems....just need to control my aggressive trading .....and adding loosing positions....

 

[pipper]

If anyone is interested, there was a buy signal for cable at 10:15am est on my software. I did not trade it though. Over 5 hours later and it is only up 2 pips anyway.

ps - my USDJPY trade is up 26 pips

 

[rav700]

Where is my dear bear friend Uphios.......Matey are we gonna get something back from cable am eagerly waiting to hear you comment

Also I would like to share my profits if I do make them this time round with some regular members that have been posting and helping one another so here is how it goes.....

I dont mean to offend any of the other members....but I believe that some traders here really make an effort to help one another....
As I said If I do hit my target I will be sending you guys on this forum a personal Cheque.....If that is okay with the Mods....
It is just a token of appreciation...

Happy Trading
Rav
( I guess you must have guessed how heavily my position must be placed hahahah
I will live to fight many other days once I get through this baby..........

I love trading ........................Yeah right :cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy:

 

[rav700]

The Trade

This is What my expectation is .....................

 

[brutusdog]

Hi Guys,

i've been looking over this thread over the past couple of days going back through every post from the last 2 weeks. imho you are all to be comended for your comitment to each other and this board, its one of the best / most active on the site and extreamly usefull to those of us who are interested in forex.

Personally i have been trading the dow but am looking into forex now as well for the shorter trades.

rav, dont feel bad about it (easy for me to say !) looking at last weeks posts you made over 100 pips one day and were almost calling every single turn!! i guess some days the market just doesnt know where it wants to go..maybe by standing back from things you will gain a clearer perspective, i hope so.

For what its worth i know i lose money when i over trade or want to trade...still do it though

good trading to you all and i hope to post some trades / ideas soon
cheers

 

[Atilla]

This is What my expectation is .....................

Rav,

I feel stress at knowing your position. Your chart looks bullish to me because I rely on my MAs a lot. AND at the moment you are on the wrong side for a short. Calling the tops not good (for me). I much prefer to be a small fish and flow with the current.

On the 15m charts we have already had a retrace to 1.9686 (23% fib) and cable is back up to 1.9693.

Also,

1. Housing stats poor in US.
2. TBonds rising, yield falling - sign rates likely to fall. -> $ will fall.
3. Inflationary press abound in UK. House prices still rising.

The odds are stacked against you. I don't want to preempt your call or pos but why not just half the risk.

Either way watch very closely. As I said I feel stress on your behalf.

Going to watch Prison Break now. My great escape... :cheesy: See you guys at 11...

Best of luck mate...

 

[Uphios]

This is What my expectation is .....................

Your expectations are similar to mine, yours are slightly higher. In retrospect I didn't expect these targets until Wednesday and with little news about what else was the market going to do. Unfortunately similar for tomorrow, soft news, may just get a gentle bit of profit taking spiked with rapid climbs back. Wednesday I hope for 525, bounce on Thursday to 613 area and down again Friday to what I hope will be 400 area. HOWEVER and as always, you have to do what is necessary to protect your pot, there is always another day to get it back when things lokk more favorable.

Good luck, and be careful out there.

PS. For me I would lower that stop a lot. I am looking at the potential double top and the second is a slightly lower high. If we exceed the previous high it changes things.

 

[rav700]

Rav,

I feel stress at knowing your position. Your chart looks bullish to me because I rely on my MAs a lot. AND at the moment you are on the wrong side for a short. Calling the tops not good (for me). I much prefer to be a small fish and flow with the current.

On the 15m charts we have already had a retrace to 1.9686 (23% fib) and cable is back up to 1.9693.

Also,

1. Housing stats poor in US.
2. TBonds rising, yield falling - sign rates likely to fall. -> $ will fall.
3. Inflationary press abound in UK. House prices still rising.

The odds are stacked against you. I don't want to preempt your call or pos but why not just half the risk.

Either way watch very closely. As I said I feel stress on your behalf.

Going to watch Prison Break now. My great escape... :cheesy: See you guys at 11...

Best of luck mate...

Just halved my position.............atleast I can survive another week...................
Good Idea mate

 

[Atilla]

Just halved my position.............atleast I can survive another week...................
Good Idea mate

Well that's taken the stress off a little.

Good move imho Rav.

Back to incubating the move...

Best of luck...

 

[Priceman]

Rav, I think you are to be commended on the way you're so open on here. If you do make the profits you're looking for then let's just all meet up and you can buy the beers instead of giving away money. We can then talk FX all night long baby! Get blindingly drunk and act like t055er city boys (no offence if you are a city boy )

Keep up the good work mate, you're a good 'un

 

[Atilla]

Rav, I think you are to be commended on the way you're so open on here. If you do make the profits you're looking for then let's just all meet up and you can buy the beers instead of giving away money. We can then talk FX all night long baby! Get blindingly drunk and act like t055er city boys (no offence if you are a city boy )

Keep up the good work mate, you're a good 'un

Yep good idea. Meet up for a drink.

Priceman, you are not talking about that £3000 a champagne bottle place are you? Or was it per glass?

Have you guys heard about the...

IX Forex Trader
20th & 21st April 2007
London ExCel
IX Forex Trader will be held on Friday 20th and Saturday 21st of December 2007 at London ExCel. We are expecting 5000 potential Forex Traders to attend the show. In 2006 IX Forex Trader was the UK´s laregst Forex event to date and indicates the huge demand for FX education currently among individual traders in the UK.

Speakers and Exhibitors from UK, US and Europe. With a very global theme reflected in the diverse nationalities of the speakers, the show benefitted from international input from David Schulz - Chicago Mercantile Exchange and John O´Donnell, Online Trading Academy in California. Exhibitors also created a international feel to the event with Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Saxo Bank from Denmark, MIG Investments SA from Switzerland CMC Markets from London.

Dame Edna on TV. Hillariously funny.

 

[theoracle]

Hey Rav,

I'm with you, short from 1.9660 looking for 1.9600. You stick with it matey, this fookers comin down. Maybe not tomorrow, but 30 pips adrift is nowt. Look at the yearly chart, it'll warm the cockles of ye heart! Though you must be in big time if you're taking 300-400 pips a month and bothered about this?
Cheers,
Nick

 

[29Investments]

Morning all

Agree with many that charts look heavy and due a move down. Good luck with the shorts.

This is from Thomson and worries me though as they are right about the probable widening interest rate differential............

London, March
27. Demand circa 1.9675 is currently propping cable, against a big-picture
backdrop of gain consolidation. 1.9672 was today"s Asian session base. 1.9674
was last Friday"s NY session peak.
Helping underpin the pair is the expectation that the UK base rate will be hiked
by another 25bp to 5.5% in Q2--possibly as early as next week (Apr 5). The risk
of a 25bp Fed funds rate cut at the end of June is also GBP/USD-positive. The
Fed funds rate has stood at 5.25% since June last year.
Good selling interest by UK clearers helped cap sterling at a high of 1.9705 in
Asia today. Further offers are noted at 1.9725, with some stops tipped above
1.9730. Additional sell orders are touted at 1.9750.
Today"s key UK event risk is slated 08:45GMT+ testimony from BoE Governor Mervyn
King, Deputy Governor Rachel Lomax and MPC member Andrew Sentance to the UK
Treasury Select Committee, re: February"s BoE inflation report. Revised UK Q4
business investment data is due at 08:30GMT. [email protected]

 

[29Investments]

............and as I type the above its breaking lower

 

[Atilla]

............and as I type the above its breaking lower

Good morning all,

Cable looks like it's range bound between 1.9700 - 1.9670 at the mo.

BBs have narrowed nicely. MAs bunching up.

Which way will it go? Looks like it might turn down but market FA is on the upside imo.

Will continue to wait and and watch out for a BB break out one way or another before moving in.

I am determined to make up for some lost pips today, so looking for some action.

 

[Uphios]

Morning all

Agree with many that charts look heavy and due a move down. Good luck with the shorts.

This is from Thomson and worries me though as they are right about the probable widening interest rate differential............

London, March
27. Demand circa 1.9675 is currently propping cable, against a big-picture
backdrop of gain consolidation. 1.9672 was today"s Asian session base. 1.9674
was last Friday"s NY session peak.
Helping underpin the pair is the expectation that the UK base rate will be hiked
by another 25bp to 5.5% in Q2--possibly as early as next week (Apr 5). The risk
of a 25bp Fed funds rate cut at the end of June is also GBP/USD-positive. The
Fed funds rate has stood at 5.25% since June last year.
Good selling interest by UK clearers helped cap sterling at a high of 1.9705 in
Asia today. Further offers are noted at 1.9725, with some stops tipped above
1.9730. Additional sell orders are touted at 1.9750.
Today"s key UK event risk is slated 08:45GMT+ testimony from BoE Governor Mervyn
King, Deputy Governor Rachel Lomax and MPC member Andrew Sentance to the UK
Treasury Select Committee, re: February"s BoE inflation report. Revised UK Q4
business investment data is due at 08:30GMT. [email protected]

I just don't buy this UK interest rate rise story at the moment. It certainly surprised them in January though I don't know why, the press was full of a January rate rise throughout the back end of last year and when it came it was a 'surprise'. Now the last vote was expected to 7-2 with the 2 in favour of a rise, in fact is was 8-1 with the 1 in favour of a cut. Since then BoE have written to the treasury expressing their concern over the strength of the pound, though what the treasury are supposed to do about it I don't know. I think we will stay where we are, a cut in a month or two from US followed by a cut from UK late in the year.

 

[hornblower]

Good morning all,

Cable looks like it's range bound between 1.9700 - 1.9670 at the mo.

BBs have narrowed nicely. MAs bunching up.

Which way will it go? Looks like it might turn down but market FA is on the upside imo.

Will continue to wait and and watch out for a BB break out one way or another before moving in.

I am determined to make up for some lost pips today, so looking for some action.

Morning
I had decided yesterday
that it was a short , and by the time I decided that i was wrong it was a bit late


today it looks like its still a short , but today I have not made my mind up,
just going to trade what I see