Hi Rav,
I believe the markets are confused because that is the intention of the Chancellor and BoE.
They are changing the inflation indexes and nobody knows what it really is. The whole point of benchmarking is so that you have something to compare against. I believe true inflation is approx 3.4% and rising.
So taking fuel out having taken mortgages out doesn't tell you anything. The administration is fudging the headline inflation to keep wage inflation in check + lots of foreign immigration to apply downward pressure on wages + young popullation to boost impending pension crises.
Similar problems apply to US.
Also, the $ is likely to have downward pressure due to no interest rises but also slowing economy. I still believe it will eventually fall and needs to fall to correct fundamental problems with the US economy. The timing I'm not sure about.
I think Jacinto was discussing indecision on one of his threads and perhaps he might contribute towards some decision on the likely direction of cable. :idea: