FTSE, DAX, DOW Trading Ideas and discussions

very unclear situation is developing in Russia, hope there is not "Siberian flue" in play.
 
2be said:
very unclear situation is developing in Russia, hope there is not "Siberian flue" in play.
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Things will develop and suddenly pop up out of nowhere... this week will be a week my friend... 16th to 20th watch carefully...
 
Jessi_trader said:
Market Reversal

The only thing that can change the price of a stock, commodity or index is a change in the supply/demand relationship. Therefore, we must measure the change in money flow. When money has been flowing into a stock for many months, and then our indicators show that money flow has reversed, we know that a price top is near.

from forbes: http://www.forbes.com/sites/investo...iable-indicator-of-an-approaching-market-top/

From Investopedia:

Indicators:

DEFINITION of 'Money Flow Index - MFI'

A momentum indicator that uses a stock’s price and volume to predict the reliability of the current trend. Because the Money Flow Index adds trading volume to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), it’s sometimes referred to as volume-weighted RSI.

Many traders watch for opportunities that arise when the MFI moves in the opposite direction as the price. This divergence can often be a leading indicator of a change in the current trend.
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All tosh - I keep saying nothing predicts the market. If it did we would bring the market to a standstill. Price leads but where to is a guess, sometimes educated, but a guess nonetheless. It's your mind set that counts, belief in what you do and countless hours (10000 minimum) watching and trading price that makes a good trader, not the hours spent trawling T2W and other sites. From what has been posted so far I feel one trader is not as good as at first he wanted to present himself on T2W. His lack of self control let him down and has attracted opprobrium from the more experienced trader on this site. The danger is that those willing to add useful information will become disillusioned with the preening and carping of some dreamers on this site and will leave or simply turn up now and again for amusement only during lulls between trades.
 
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Jessi_trader said:
A general out of the topic discussion

People say don't try to predict moves and market turns...

Now the question is, what is the speculation business? Logically and philosophically what we are doing? Think about it.

When a breakout happens at particular level, how do you know if price is going to go up or going to go down? How do you speculate?

What is the speculation logically?

How do you know a particular price pattern is bullish or bearish? And what you expect next to happend?

Would you drive a car in a tunnel if you can't see the road ahead?

JT
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Turn the car headlights on maybe:whistling
 
I guess the topic was more like if price patterns have predictive nature or not. Not whether market is predictable.. although sounds same but they are not the same...:)
 
Jessi_trader said:
I guess the topic was more like if price patterns have predictive nature or not. Not whether market is predictable.. although sounds same but they are not the same...:)[/QUOTE

Sorry -I didn't realise your first language was not English. Amend any reference to market by replacing such with "price patterns."

One could postulate that if price patterns have a predictive nature then such predictive nature cannot exist on its own- it has to relate to something and that something is where price operates viz. in the markets. Unless of course you are talking about the price of apples, but even then price does not exist in a vacuum, it has to relate to something viz apples.
But such idle speculation will not make you a better trader merely a better bar room philosopher.Good luck.
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In my opinion ( obviously many people can disagree.) human behaviour has a pattern and thus the price patterns, which is in turn is the translation of human behaviour.

As all patterns have a predictive element which tells us what the next move could be. (by looking into the past patterns.)

Stock prices also have predictive elements, which lets us predict the potential future moves based on past patterns.

Elliot wave, DOW theory etc. suggest the prediction of future price moves based on past patterns.

All chart patterns (Head and shoulders ,Cup and Handle ,Double Tops and Bottoms etc) indicates future moves.

Studying and analysing a chart and technical analysis is all about finding and spotting these patterns and speculate based on the past price patterns we see in the chart.

Now as per nature and definition of "prediction", the future result of prediction is not guaranteed and prediction can fail.

AND this is where trading plan and strategy comes in to the picture. You manage your risk, and you protect your money if that prediction fails.

Stops, targets and entry they are all speculative, target can reach or market can turn back before even meeting the target, this is where you need a plan. Target itself is predictive, if a particular level breaks you set a target, setting a target is also based on pattern rules which is completely speculative and predictive.

IMHO an element of prediction exists in all kind of speculative business.

Thanks everyone for giving valuable inputs, it was a great discussion.

We will have another topic next Friday!!!
 
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not trying to be stir a new war :LOL:

but just noticed your signature


....Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
 
Jessi_trader said:
A general out of the topic discussion

People say don't try to predict moves and market turns...

Now the question is, what is the speculation business? Logically and philosophically what we are doing? Think about it.

When a breakout happens at particular level, how do you know if price is going to go up or going to go down? How do you speculate?

What is the speculation logically?

How do you know a particular price pattern is bullish or bearish? And what you expect next to happend?

Would you drive a car in a tunnel if you can't see the road ahead?

JT
Click to expand...

Predication > concept > narrow view > rigidity > losses.

Yes, patterns are good they represent the psychology of the masses, but they often fail and their failure often fail, having a conviction is good only to get trapped in our beliefs, one has to nimble, lighter, open: this has happened I will do this, if that happens I will do this and if proven wrong I will do that....

Markets cannot be defined and predication is a form of wanted to control, by its nature market cannot be controlled, market is ever changing entity, fluid and likes the traders that know how to dance.

Yes I would drive in a tunnel without seeing if that is the only way I need to go....
 
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Fugazsy said:
Predication > concept > narrow view > rigidity > losses.

Yes, patterns are good they represent the psychology of the masses, but they often fail and their failure often fail, having a conviction is good only to get trapped in our beliefs, one has to nimble, lighter, open: this has happened I will do this, if that happens I will do this and if proven wrong I will do that....

Markets cannot be defined and predication is a form of wanted to control, by its nature market cannot be controlled, market is ever changing entity, fluid and likes the traders that know how to dance.

Yes I would drive in a tunnel without seeing if that is the only way I need to go....
Click to expand...


Yup... a good point of view Fugazsy
 
EUR/USD : Week 16th March - 20th March

EUR/USD : Week 16th March - 20th March

Selling is getting weaker but there are still force out there. Level to watch is 10500 and 9850 (+- 50).

They looks good support area and chances are that price can bounce back from these level.

I expect price to bounce back from 10500 and rally to 11500 and even above that level.

We will keep an eye on intraday sessions next week.


2zdss4w.jpg



11azbs6.jpg


32zq0l2.jpg
 
GBP/USD 16th Mar - 20th Mar

We can see bit of selling till a major support area at 14000, I expect price to bounce back from 14000 area. So watch 14000 for long setup.

2m3jwxj.jpg


xpsrbl.jpg
 
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JPY/USD 16th March - 20th March

Consolidation is underway and there seems to be short opportunity around 12200 area with stop above red line.

Breakout of red line will turn into Long setup, so an important level to watch.

29c9xr5.jpg
 
GOLD - 16th March - 20th March

I am still watching 1100 for long trade, will keep an eye on gold for 1100.

11grko4.jpg
 
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