FTSE, DAX, DOW Trading Ideas and discussions

[postman]

so you value fibs do you? i never trusted them myself but im happy to have my mind changed

no not as such.... just for support tool...

if they coincide with other factor then they have more significance....

So if they agree with what you think will happen use them, otherwise ignore them.
I think thats called 'Confirmation bias'.

Its akin to leaving out countries that dont match your thesis expectations and then saying Austerity is a good idea!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_in_a_Time_of_Debt

 

[Jessi_trader]

so you're looking at this are you...

yes... ...

sent you PM

 

[Jessi_trader]

DOW is moving down to test 17624...

 

[Jessi_trader]

so you're looking at this are you...

close to bottom....

 

[Jessi_trader]

yup, I have noticed DAX touched 11600 few time after hours in the past...now we are near closing... I guess DAX will be pushed towards 12000 once the cash market is closed.

11954 ...........

 

[2be]

Monday/ Tuesday shall be interesting on DAX

 

[Jessi_trader]

Monday/ Tuesday shall be interesting on DAX

yes... but 19th and 20th will be fireworks.....

Next week is significant....

 

[Jessi_trader]

some how I feel that the best bet next week would be long DOW and short DAX but we will see....

have been unique week I have to say... thanks to everyone for encouragement and help...

have a good weekend...will pop-in later for weekend analysis...

 

[Jessi_trader]

A general out of the topic discussion

People say don't try to predict moves and market turns...

Now the question is, what is the speculation business? Logically and philosophically what we are doing? Think about it.

When a breakout happens at particular level, how do you know if price is going to go up or going to go down? How do you speculate?

What is the speculation logically?

How do you know a particular price pattern is bullish or bearish? And what you expect next to happend?

Would you drive a car in a tunnel if you can't see the road ahead?

JT

 

[barjon]

Jess

I don't see it as a prediction game, but a "what if" game. Ie: if it does x I'll do this, if it does y I'll do that.

Basically, you are just making an assumption and have a related plan of campaign that allows you to take an adequate advantage when that assumption pans out and limit the damage when it doesn't.

In any case, there are no prizes for correct predictions. You have to able to trade them and that's much harder.

 

[Jessi_trader]

Jess

I don't see it as a prediction game, but a "what if" game. Ie: if it does x I'll do this, if it does y I'll do that.

Basically, you are just making an assumption and have a related plan of campaign that allows you to take an adequate advantage when that assumption pans out and limit the damage when it doesn't.

In any case, there are no prizes for correct predictions. You have to able to trade them and that's much harder.

Good point Jon, so you are putting true and false elimination and planning in the context.

I would be interested too other views as well.

Would you say a particular price pattern has predictive capability or predictive element?

 

[Jessi_trader]

by study of various price patterns and actions... statically it was observed that particular price patterns have particular predictive element with particular success rate... would you say that?

 

[Jessi_trader]

Just to make it bit clear that we are not focusing in trading strategy, just whether market or price action or speculation business has predictive element or not.

 

[Jessi_trader]

From Investopedia

Candlestick Patterns:

the bullish harami is a candlestick chart pattern in which a large closed candlestick is followed by a smaller open candlestick, the body of which is located within the vertical range of the larger body. This pattern predicts the reversal of a downward trend; the smaller the open candlestick, the more likely the reversal. Here are two stocks that have just shown us this chart pattern.

Chart Patterns

A chart pattern is a distinct formation on a stock chart that creates a trading signal, or a sign of future price movements. Chartists use these patterns to identify current trends and trend reversals and to trigger buy and sell signals.

-----------------

There is nothing new on Wall Street or in stock speculation. What has happened in the past will happen again, and again, and again. This is because human nature does not change, and it is human emotion, solidly build into human nature, that always gets in the way of human intelligence. Of this I am sure.

-Jesse Livermore


"TIME is the most important factor in determining market movements and by studying the past records of the averages or individual stocks you will be able to prove for yourself that history does repeat and that by knowing the past you can tell the future. … There is a definite relation between TIME and PRICE. … Now, by a study of the TIME PERIODS and TIME CYCLES you will learn why tops and bottoms are found at certain times and why Resistance Levels are so strong at certain times and bottoms and tops hold around them. … The most money is made when fast moves and extreme fluctuations occur at the end of major cycles."
-WD Gann

 

[Jessi_trader]

Market Reversal

The only thing that can change the price of a stock, commodity or index is a change in the supply/demand relationship. Therefore, we must measure the change in money flow. When money has been flowing into a stock for many months, and then our indicators show that money flow has reversed, we know that a price top is near.

from forbes: http://www.forbes.com/sites/investo...iable-indicator-of-an-approaching-market-top/

From Investopedia:

Indicators:

DEFINITION of 'Money Flow Index - MFI'

A momentum indicator that uses a stock’s price and volume to predict the reliability of the current trend. Because the Money Flow Index adds trading volume to the Relative Strength Index (RSI), it’s sometimes referred to as volume-weighted RSI.

Many traders watch for opportunities that arise when the MFI moves in the opposite direction as the price. This divergence can often be a leading indicator of a change in the current trend.

 

[neil]

Simplicity

Some say, "Keep it simple":

Draw a line, trade it. Price generally above go long, price generally below - go short.(Nunrgguy)


Like this guy:

http://www.nakedforexnow.com/showthread.php?832-flow-2........

 

[barjon]

From Investopedia

Candlestick Patterns:

.............. This pattern predicts the reversal of a downward trend; "...........B]

Well you show me one where it did and I'll show you one where it didn't

 

[Jessi_trader]

Well you show me one where it did and I'll show you one where it didn't

emm I see them everyday as well :cheesy:

Prediction and guaranteed are two different thing IMHO :cheesy:

Prediction by nature and definition can fail, if I am not wrong.

 

[Jessi_trader]

Does the price patterns, price action, Candlestick patterns, indicators, support/resistance have predictive element/nature? :cheesy:

 

[Splitlink]

Some say, "Keep it simple":

Draw a line, trade it. Price generally above go long, price generally below - go short.(Nunrgguy)


Like this guy:

http://www.nakedforexnow.com/showthread.php?832-flow-2........

Its not the line that gets me, its the zone that it is in. Many times I get stopped, or give up, just that few points too early.. It seems, to me, to be all in the stop distance and the market will try to take the stops out. Its the nature of the beast. So, if one sees a "logical" line to enter, beyond that is where he is going to place his stop.