FTSE 100 Intraday - December

[bonsai]

More detail on the trend line break and the flag.
The hesitation of the last few days got resolved today.
It may have only taken one or two big players to break
the Steidlmeyer slide. And the lack of follow through is
evident in the chart.
Seemingly now moving back into the safety of the crowd ?

Things to notice ?
Collapse in the a/d line.
Swing failure in RSI
Critical failure to break above 1 day
Flag at half mast

 

[barjon]

volume

bonsai

Know your volume views, of course, but a bit surprised. Don't
know enough yet about ftse to comment, but for individual
shares I think it important since it does add something to the
underlying supply and demand logic.

Particularly so for candlestick patterns. For example on a hanging
man day (see below - it's a bit of aviva chart) the market opens
near the highs, sells off then recovers to close near the open. If
the market gaps down the next day or moves lower then all
those who bought near the hanging man open or close are left
"hanging" and a good many dash for the exit. Clearly, the more
left hanging the greater the crowd trying to get through the exit
door, the greater the supply and the greater is the fuel to
bearish sentiment. I always like to see good volume on a
hanging man day - certainly above average and certainly
higher than the preceding few days.

 

[bonsai]

of course barjon
your logic is not only sound , it is also common sense.

yet I am left wondering why nobody has developed a really
good volume indicator.
We know that some transactions do not have to be reported
as they occur. !
And on some days there will be catch up.

But there will be many many days when all the volume is reported.

 

[barjon]

mmm, two thoughts spring to mind:

1. the big one-off deals have such a distorting effect.
2. as do the big positions put to the market for reasons that are
not connected with bullish/bearish sentiment.

To help decide on the strength of a candlestick signal I just look
at volume against the average (and scroll through ADVFN to check
if any big one-offs have gone through that would have given
a distorted high volume figure if I am doubtful).

'course there's always the bad news/good news message from
one's broker " The bad news is that your holding in Widgets Inc
has fallen by over 50% today, the good news is that it was on
low volume"

 

[mully]

Thought for the week:

One of the funny things about the stock market is that every time one person buys, another sells, and both think they are astute.



Still feel -ve towards FTSE 100 (weak US on Friday, poor Asian Markets, declining 1 day SMA.

 

[Hooya]

well we had a nice 5 wave rise into the close on Friday so wondering if that was an a of an abc?


edit or maybe we are still in 4?....

 

[Hooya]

can someone confirm we ticked slightly higher at the open first,

 

[bonsai]

hooya
no can do , sorry.

barjon
question is - are big one off deals a distortion or reality ?
Mully made the point that each sell requires a buy on the other side.

I would hazard the quess that volume only changes price at
a critical margin. And that margin can change everyday.
You can see that with L2 ? (Market Profile ?)

Traders seem to like to trade in the comfort zone within the margin.

Anyway, its all too complicated for my grey cells.
But it is interesting .

 

[bonsai]

For the bulls, this chart says the target is 4950 !

Another way of looking at single stair treads ?

<img src="http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$FTSE,pltc[pa][da][f!3!!]&pnf=y">

 

[jonnyy40]

4576 and 'The Darkness' to have the Christmas No.1

 

[bonsai]

what do you think mully ?
technically, I guess, it should bounce now.
but it does look weak ?

 

[mully]

Barjon:
Not a pretty development, with a new low recorded for Amvescap.

 

[mully]

As I posted last week I am currently using FTSE250 as guide as it appears clearer. Looks like 5 wave count from top, with today being wave v. So watching closely for a potential bounce. (but this would be a retracement move?)

 

[bonsai]

mully
I think corrective too.
price action doesnt look like a serious bottom
macd not very oversold although we could soon make a higher low ?
But my RSI is looking a bit perky and has made a higher low.
A/D still very negative.

(dax is oversold)

 

[mully]

I see what you mean with the Dax

 

[bonsai]

mully
yes, thanks for posting that.
my problem is my charts are on the other pc and w95 wont
accept two dial-up adapters.
so I have to disconnect, then switch to my pc to pc cable etc etc
and then reconnect.

interesting gap ? to the left.
Ftse broke its equivalent some time ago.

 

[mully]

My problem is that when in London I'm on broadband
and can do lots of things.
However, when we decamp to the country and dial-up
I feel very deprived/resticted.
Currently a major hurdle to moving full time to beautiful countryside.
(I am in one of those areas which will probably never qualify for broadband,
so putting hope in wireless roll out before committing to move)

 

[jonnyy40]

So you're trading full-time Mully?How does your trading income compare to your salary?

 

[barjon]

mully

can't rely on avz while its got its own troubles (been short
since 466 although closed half @ 420)

btw not all sellers think they are right (bearish) some just
need the money for Christmas!!

 

[mully]

That's very personal Jonny40.
Anything else you want to know while you are asking?