andybissell
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I will be trading 38/38/25/5 from next week, despite yesterdays 45 SL saving me. I believe this was down to the news, not the system. Using 45/35/25/5, 2 losses in a week virtually makes profit impossible...
Beerslayer
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I'm glad to hear that many of you banked some pips today. This was the first day in a week that I had it turned off. My timing, as always, is impeccable.
I'm going to leave it off a while longer... here's hoping that the news is good all next week.
I'm going to leave it off a while longer... here's hoping that the news is good all next week.
Hi Pod. Jashfx summarized it correctly at post #10383 (from my spreadsheets at 10365/366).
However, at the risk of getting into "too much information", there is a caveat. (Isn't there always?).
When you get a series of results where the most aggressive go to the top (BE 28-4) and you trade them, you may have a greater risk of "over-optimization", because of too-careful a selection of the sweet spot. It is usually advised to go a bit lower, because the top setting will likely be the first victim if things start going wrong. Another bit of evidence of this issue is that the BE 29 and 30 series fell quite a bit down the list in pips earned. This tells me that 28-4 is "on the edge".
So, 28-4 looks good, but it is very sensitive to bad fills and any other difficulties in the market. at least in this series of data. Of course we are dealing with BST 2010 in that test, and things may look different with the more recent weeks. I will post the results for the 2010/2011 stock 90% test later today and see what it gives.
However, at the risk of getting into "too much information", there is a caveat. (Isn't there always?).
When you get a series of results where the most aggressive go to the top (BE 28-4) and you trade them, you may have a greater risk of "over-optimization", because of too-careful a selection of the sweet spot. It is usually advised to go a bit lower, because the top setting will likely be the first victim if things start going wrong. Another bit of evidence of this issue is that the BE 29 and 30 series fell quite a bit down the list in pips earned. This tells me that 28-4 is "on the edge".
So, 28-4 looks good, but it is very sensitive to bad fills and any other difficulties in the market. at least in this series of data. Of course we are dealing with BST 2010 in that test, and things may look different with the more recent weeks. I will post the results for the 2010/2011 stock 90% test later today and see what it gives.
podberry
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Thanks Coral, any reason why you are trading the recommended settings against what you have posted on your results ?
Pod, I'm still close to default for a couple of reasons: A higher hit rate (example yesterday's win), and I'm not straying too far from the recommendation. I figure if my settings got me a bit into the hole, they will be the best to get me out if things recover. However, DesertEagle's 38 38 looks like a great way to go for me in the near future if things progress well with the account, unless we come up with a better widget....
shoot2scoot
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Hi Pod, just wanted to say thanks for getting SLM up on the FOREX PEACE ARMY website (http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/public/forex_broker_reviews). I heard from 16 active members of this site who had complaints. It would do everyone a great service if you could each find the time to post, even if you are agreeing with other posts as you add weight and credibility to the previous authors.
Cheers and here's wishing you all a relaxing weekend after two late wins on FMT :clap:
Cheers and here's wishing you all a relaxing weekend after two late wins on FMT :clap:
podberry
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shoot2scoot
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No problem scoot, 2 stars and not 1, so you love them a wee bit
Remember they did give me a refund!
podberry
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thruster9121
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As you suggest, straddling can work, but it can hurt you if you're not quick with closing orders. One way to trade news is to wait for a good few seconds after the initial jump in price, watch it retrace on the tick chart, then when it starts to turn into its original direction you place your trade - you can easily grab 30 or so pips this way.
Unfortunately for me, I work full time and only trade part time; so news trading is out and long term position trading is in
thruster9121
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No problem scoot, 2 stars and not 1, so you love them a wee bit
Couldn't log into the SLM MT4 platform this afternoon for about 20 mins while the EUR/USD tanked, thankfully I had already closed my trade on this pair. Absolutely the worst spreadbetting broker out there. So what if they have spreadbetting on MT4? I'd rather trade ECN style with ThinkForex and pay CGT!!
I'm attaching another spreadsheet as promised showing the following:
Optimization of BE and BEAddPips settings for the 38 SL and 38 TP proposed by DesertEagle.
Data: Metaquotes @ 90% on Alapari UK
Spread: unknown, during Asian session 19 to 20 May
Period: 1 Jan 2010 to 19 May 2011, non-stop
Range tested: from BE 20/0 thru 30/10 (121 combinations) on fixed 38SL and 38TP
FMT 4.3 EA at 7:15 Alpari UK
I'm also including a marked-up chart showing where the settings are in relation to each other -relative to profit.
The 25/5 and 27/5 already discussed fit nicely in this result IMO. Even my own 28/8 that I was thinking of for a riskier account still fits here, since 25-29/9 to 25-29/10 appear to work well above it.
I don't want to publish reams of spreadsheets here with unnecessary info at the risk of boring people to death, but at least it is a good analysis to pick up for anyone interested. This is the way Mark does it.
That's it. I have to take the weekend off.
Optimization of BE and BEAddPips settings for the 38 SL and 38 TP proposed by DesertEagle.
Data: Metaquotes @ 90% on Alapari UK
Spread: unknown, during Asian session 19 to 20 May
Period: 1 Jan 2010 to 19 May 2011, non-stop
Range tested: from BE 20/0 thru 30/10 (121 combinations) on fixed 38SL and 38TP
FMT 4.3 EA at 7:15 Alpari UK
I'm also including a marked-up chart showing where the settings are in relation to each other -relative to profit.
The 25/5 and 27/5 already discussed fit nicely in this result IMO. Even my own 28/8 that I was thinking of for a riskier account still fits here, since 25-29/9 to 25-29/10 appear to work well above it.
I don't want to publish reams of spreadsheets here with unnecessary info at the risk of boring people to death, but at least it is a good analysis to pick up for anyone interested. This is the way Mark does it.
That's it. I have to take the weekend off.
Last edited:
megamuel
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Re: Very Disappointed
Hi Wise,
I did post it earlier on but I don't think anyone noticed it. I wasn't trying to unrest anyone, close the forum, or stop the system being promoted. I was just saying that I have traded the system for nearly 7 months, with a reliable broker and I have not made a penny... In fact, lost a few. When you say "Those of us who are making money from the system". I feel slightly confused, I have traded the system by the book, with new updates and settings as soon as they are issued and I have not made anything. So if you and the others are trading the system by the book how are you making money and I'm not? Maybe you could post your results so I can see where mine differ?
Cheers,
Sam.
I thought you'd already said this earlier today. And it's a free world, everybody is at liberty to change their trading plans, and if you want to quit FMT that is your prerogative. Saying what you say won't unrest those of us who are making money from the system, nor will it close the forum nor will it stop the system being promoted.
Sorry if it's not working for you, but if that's the case all you have to do is go and find something better.
And if you find it by all means tell us all about it.
Hi Wise,
I did post it earlier on but I don't think anyone noticed it. I wasn't trying to unrest anyone, close the forum, or stop the system being promoted. I was just saying that I have traded the system for nearly 7 months, with a reliable broker and I have not made a penny... In fact, lost a few. When you say "Those of us who are making money from the system". I feel slightly confused, I have traded the system by the book, with new updates and settings as soon as they are issued and I have not made anything. So if you and the others are trading the system by the book how are you making money and I'm not? Maybe you could post your results so I can see where mine differ?
Cheers,
Sam.
wiseambitions
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Re: Very Disappointed
Hi Sam
I've just been looking at the last 6 months performance in my trading and in my forward testing on a daily basis of various alternative exit settings. And of course I can see where you are coming from.
Looking at 6 months - 21st November 2010 through to now, 20th May 2011 we have had a sticky patch where I have to say the official settings of 35/40+BE@20 would have only gone forward by 15 pips. 40/40 without BE would have gained 160. These numbers assume the week of Christmas, and around the New Year and also Good Friday (which had a signal) were traded. If one had stayed away over those periods there might have been savings of around 200 to 250 pips of losses and the total result would have been a lot more palatable.
As it happens I don't trade the recommended settings, as I go for a more conservative approach to try and improve the PF for compounding. If I had traded every day on the settings I use I would have moved forward by 316 pips, and more than that of course had I avoided the Christmas,New Year and Easter periods.
Going back 7 months instead of 6 things don't look quite so bad. That's because October was a reasonably good month.
Obviously we hope that FMT is going to do better. The indications from the web site are that June and July 2010 were brilliant months. It is not unusual for markets such as equities to go in spurts with occasional pullbacks. And sometime yesterday I put up the results of various sets for the last 10 trades and I compared them with what I think would have been the outcome for 12 full months, which would have been nearly 200 trades. What I saw happening there was the sets which have done worst in the last 10 trades in difficult conditions would have done best in the run of 12 months. And the sets which lost the least in the last 10 sessions would have gained the least in a full 12 months. This experience also links with the production of managed funds, where the cautious ones are less volatile but more steady whereas the adventurous ones tend to be much more variable in the short term even if they emerge as the long term winners.
It may be the case that you have a couple months where your results improve and beat mine. We don't know on a daily basis whether today's is going to be a good trade or not, and if we were to reduce risk or stop trading for a period we could easily miss the recovery.
Hi Sam
I've just been looking at the last 6 months performance in my trading and in my forward testing on a daily basis of various alternative exit settings. And of course I can see where you are coming from.
Looking at 6 months - 21st November 2010 through to now, 20th May 2011 we have had a sticky patch where I have to say the official settings of 35/40+BE@20 would have only gone forward by 15 pips. 40/40 without BE would have gained 160. These numbers assume the week of Christmas, and around the New Year and also Good Friday (which had a signal) were traded. If one had stayed away over those periods there might have been savings of around 200 to 250 pips of losses and the total result would have been a lot more palatable.
As it happens I don't trade the recommended settings, as I go for a more conservative approach to try and improve the PF for compounding. If I had traded every day on the settings I use I would have moved forward by 316 pips, and more than that of course had I avoided the Christmas,New Year and Easter periods.
Going back 7 months instead of 6 things don't look quite so bad. That's because October was a reasonably good month.
Obviously we hope that FMT is going to do better. The indications from the web site are that June and July 2010 were brilliant months. It is not unusual for markets such as equities to go in spurts with occasional pullbacks. And sometime yesterday I put up the results of various sets for the last 10 trades and I compared them with what I think would have been the outcome for 12 full months, which would have been nearly 200 trades. What I saw happening there was the sets which have done worst in the last 10 trades in difficult conditions would have done best in the run of 12 months. And the sets which lost the least in the last 10 sessions would have gained the least in a full 12 months. This experience also links with the production of managed funds, where the cautious ones are less volatile but more steady whereas the adventurous ones tend to be much more variable in the short term even if they emerge as the long term winners.
It may be the case that you have a couple months where your results improve and beat mine. We don't know on a daily basis whether today's is going to be a good trade or not, and if we were to reduce risk or stop trading for a period we could easily miss the recovery.
shoot2scoot
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Thruster, did you speak to SLM? If so, how was (Paul) our hero of customer services? Why don't you copy and paste your post at Forexpeacearmy.com? Maybe you have already? :clap:
shoot2scoot
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One thing that this FMT dip has taught me is that you must have at least three very different strategies running at any one time in order that you can iron out the dips that every strategy suffers!
Because of the earlier interest in Lindencourt FX I am looking at the 'Daily' version of this strategy as it balances the short term nature of FMT well. Does anyone else use this? I have read mixed reviews?
Sorry to go off topic but perhaps anyone with details could contact me privately, that would be great?
Because of the earlier interest in Lindencourt FX I am looking at the 'Daily' version of this strategy as it balances the short term nature of FMT well. Does anyone else use this? I have read mixed reviews?
Sorry to go off topic but perhaps anyone with details could contact me privately, that would be great?
shoot2scoot
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Coral, just wanted to add my thanks for all the work you post on this site. Have a great weekend if you aren't backtesting
wiseambitions
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Re: Very Disappointed
Further to my post 10456
I have been looking at http://www.mt4i.com/users/fmt-bfr/stats which is someone else's log of trades following FMT settings. I believe it started late September 2010 and they seem to have been trading on 8pc risk on a starting capital of 5,000, not compounded, and have nearly doubled their money (after some recent drawdown). That would have been by catching all of October which was a good month, but I haven't checked the daily results against my forward tests nor the MF Journal.
It is useful to do this because it throws up how that perhaps there would be days my system would not trade with my broker's prices, whereas somebody else might, and vice versa.
Further to my post 10456
I have been looking at http://www.mt4i.com/users/fmt-bfr/stats which is someone else's log of trades following FMT settings. I believe it started late September 2010 and they seem to have been trading on 8pc risk on a starting capital of 5,000, not compounded, and have nearly doubled their money (after some recent drawdown). That would have been by catching all of October which was a good month, but I haven't checked the daily results against my forward tests nor the MF Journal.
It is useful to do this because it throws up how that perhaps there would be days my system would not trade with my broker's prices, whereas somebody else might, and vice versa.
