ForexMorningTrade System

Performance at various settings:

In the last 100 trades. Arising since middle August 2010
FMT 35/40/BE@20 + 685
Old FMT 40/40 +640
10/40 (conservative) +800
43/65/BE@20 +831

In the last 200 trades (which include those above), arising since early January 2010

New FMT +1620
Old FMT +1840
10/40 +1300
43/65/BE +1878

Observations
1) The latest 100 trades are definitely less profitable than the first 100 (no surprise there!)
2) Original FMT 40/40 settings still doing well
3) A conservative setting eg 10tp/40sl, having a dangerous r/r ratio has done really well recently but not so startling in context of the last 60 weeks as it was vulnerable to big single losses
4) the 'Deserteagle' 43/65 strategy, although prone to bigger single losses, has done consistently well

Please note E&OE. Satisfy yourself before acting upon any such information.
 
FMT for me today:

6:00 start, buy trade, hit TP +21 pips
6:15 start, buy trade, hit BE 0 pips
6:30 start, buy trade, hit BE+5 pips
6:45 start, buy trade, hit SL -40 pips

total loss today -14 pips.

need a good one tomorrow !
 
Stats for 02-14-2011
(sorry I'm behind . . .)


'Live' Accounts:

FMT 4.2, FXSolutions, dealing desk, Long/Loss, 1.6044, 1.6021, -40.0 pips
My stats since 11-08-2010: 14 No Trades, 18 Break Evens, 20 Losses, 18 Profits, Total: -191.0 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP

FMT 4.2, IBFX, non-dealing desk, Long/Loss, 1.60597, 1.60179, -41.8 pips
My stats since 01-04-2010: 7 No Trades, 6 Break Evens, 8 Loss, 9 Profits, Total: -17.7 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP



Demo Accounts:

FMT 4.2, non-dealing desk brokers, 5:Long/Loss
PFG Best, 1.60592, 1.60181, -41.1
FOREX.com, 1.60599, 1.60180, -41.9
FXCM, 1.60598, 1.60174, -42.4
Alpari(US), 1.60592, 1.60191, -40.1
FXDD, 1.60603, 1.60201, -40.2



Testing new tweaked settings, based on back testing. For more details, see Post #5659, page 708:

FMT 4.2 EA, GBPUSD M15 Chart, UK time zone.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: SL=40, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 pips
6:15 start, no trade, 0.0 pips ... :-|
My stats since 01-20-2011: Total: +57.3 pips



Testing other systems, subject to back testing.
Lost my back testing system, and I don't have time right now to get it back.

FMT 4.2 EA, GBPUSD M15 Chart, UK time zone.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: SL=40, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 pips
13:15 start, no trade, 0.0 pips ... :-|
My stats since 02-01-2011: Total: -184.2 pips

FMT 4.2 EA, EURUSD M15 Chart, UK time zone.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: SL=40, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 pips
13:15 start, sell trade, 1.34384-1.34775, hit SL=-39.1 pips ... :-(
My stats since 02-01-2011: Total: +11.6 pips

FMT 4.2 EA, EURUSD/USDCHF M15 Chart, UK time zone.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: SL=20, TP=7, BE=0
23:00 start, EURUSD, no trade, 0.0 pips
23:00 start, USDCHF, 0.96986, 0.96906, hit TP= +8.23 pips
Total for both trades: +8.2 pips ... :)
My stats since 02-03-2011: Total: -29.4 pips
 
I'm using TMT, but would recommend tweaking the live settings of FMT to what I'm using with TMT: 40 SL, 15 BE, 5 addpips, 20 or 25 TP. I'm in the + range of profit, having lowered my expectations of TP to stay in the positive.

Start times are similar to Hammy's, 6:15, 6:30, 6:45. Though 6:15 and 6:30 are more profitable. At least this way you're getting some pips most of the time.

TP quite often has been around 20 pips. Today I had TP 25 and broke even with pips, and decided to return to 20 TP. Though so far this year it's been a challenge.
 
I must say, that when we kicked off this morning it didn't look like the trade had any strength to go higher, so glad that FMT's BE setting gets us out of these situations, especially as I can't sit looking at the computer screen all day. What is interesting is, if I was willing to sit at the screen I think I would be looking at how well the 2 indicators align and cross the 0.00/100 lines to show when strong reversals are likely - today being a perfect example of going short at around 9.30/45am (1.6143) but protected by a trailing SL, would have got you around a 100 pips with SL taking you out on the reversal from around 1.6000. As I say, interesting to bear in mind, although I'm happy to run with FMT settings as long it continues to return more wins than losses, as I still have a job to do! Chris
 
Stats for 02-15-2011
(sorry I'm behind . . .)


'Live' Accounts:

FMT 4.2, FXSolutions, dealing desk, Long/Profit, 1.6044, 1.6079, +35.0 pips
My stats since 11-08-2010: 14 No Trades, 18 Break Evens, 20 Losses, 19 Profits, Total: -156.0 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP

FMT 4.2, IBFX, non-dealing desk, Long/Profit, 1.60434, 1.60790, +35.6 pips
My stats since 01-04-2010: 7 No Trades, 6 Break Evens, 8 Loss, 10 Profits, Total: +17.9 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP



Demo Accounts:

FMT 4.2, non-dealing desk brokers, 5:Long/Profit
PFG Best, 1.60425, 1.60785, +36.0
FOREX.com, 1.60427, 1.60784, +35.7
FXCM, 1.60421, 1.60772, +35.1
Alpari(US), 1.60426, 1.60777, +35.1
FXDD, 1.60428, 1.60784, +35.6



Testing new tweaked settings, based on back testing. For more details, see Post #5659, page 708:

FMT 4.2 EA, GBPUSD M15 Chart, UK time zone.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: SL=40, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 pips
6:15 start, buy trade, 1.60448, 1.60760, +31.2 pips ... :)
My stats since 01-20-2011: Total: +88.5 pips



Testing other systems, subject to back testing.
Lost my back testing system, and I don't have time right now to get it back.

FMT 4.2 EA, GBPUSD M15 Chart, UK time zone.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: SL=40, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 pips
13:15 start, buy trade, 1.61357, 1.61694, hit TP= +33.7 pips ... :)
My stats since 02-01-2011: Total: -150.5 pips

FMT 4.2 EA, EURUSD M15 Chart, UK time zone.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: SL=40, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 pips
13:15 start, buy trade, 1.35112, 1.35417, hit TP= +30.5 pips ... :)
My stats since 02-01-2011: Total: +42.1 pips

FMT 4.2 EA, EURUSD/USDCHF M15 Chart, UK time zone.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: SL=20, TP=7, BE=0
23:00 start, EURUSD, sell trade, 1.34866, 1.35066, hit SL= -20.0 pips
23:00 start, USDCHF, sell trade, 0.96676, 0.96603, hit TP= +7.5 pips
Total for both trades: -12.5 pips ... :-(
My stats since 02-03-2011: Total: -41.9 pips
 
Greetings All.

Have been trading cable (pretty much exclusively) for 7 years as a retail punter. Over this time the 'characterisitcs' of the pair have changed a fair bit. Given the macro economic turmoil we're all living through right now, I supose there shouldn't be any suprises there.

Over the medium term, and based on historical stats, FMT looks to be a pretty intersting entry methodology. And we all need these as part of our trading plans.

Bought the system on Sunday and went live 8 hours later. Loosing so far but no big deal. Rome wasn't built in three days! Having said this the things that concerns me most are:

The changing 'characerisitics' of the pair
The non-dynamic parameters of a fixed mechanical system
The R/R ratios based on the above points 1 and 2.

So here's the question; has anyone run back tests with much tighter stops and T/P targets? Obviously we can all still make pleanty of cash earning 10 pips per day - provided one loosing day doesn't wipe out the rest of the week's profits.

Using a gambling analogy; a pro-punter would be unlikely to back an aging horse (no matter what it's former results) if they were offered odds-on or evens for ever. They would say "its better to win once at 25/1 and lose the next ten bets at similar odds than accept such an offer.

Please don't get me wrong with post. I'm no harpinger of doom. I wouldn't have bought the package if I thought it was a lemon. Indeed, I want it to succeed. But it does seem to me that the regulars to this forum have have been grappling with this issue for months.

My personal view is that perhaps we should evalutate more consistent smaller gains with comparably smaller and, if possible, much fewer losses or B/E's to build realistics profits.

Anyway. 10/10 for this forum. Forthe most part; very objective. Actually quite unusual for T2W. Also 10/10 to our sponsor. FMT is an interesting entry methodolgy that so far has worked very well.

I'm back to to port. Over to the stat docotors.

DB
Keep going you guys and hats off to you all.
 
Stats for 02-16-2011



'Live' Accounts:

FMT 4.2, FXSolutions, dealing desk, Long/Break Even, 1.6163, 1.6162, -1.0 pips
My stats since 11-08-2010: 14 No Trades, 19 Break Evens, 20 Losses, 19 Profits, Total: -157.0 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP

FMT 4.2, IBFX, non-dealing desk, Long/Break Even, 1.61635, 1.61633, -0.2 pips
My stats since 01-04-2010: 7 No Trades, 7 Break Evens, 8 Loss, 10 Profits, Total: +18.1 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP



Demo Accounts:

FMT 4.2, non-dealing desk brokers, 4:Long/Break Even, 1:Long/Loss
PFG Best, 1.61628, 1.61622, -0.6
FOREX.com, 1.61634, 1.61631, -0.3
FXCM, 1.61632, 1.61632, 0.0
Alpari(US), 1.61635, 1.61635, 0.0
FXDD, 1.61643, 1.61238, -40.5



Testing new tweaked settings, based on back testing. For more details, see Post #5659, page 708:

FMT 4.2 EA, GBPUSD M15 Chart, UK time zone.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: SL=40, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 pips
6:15 start, buy trade, 1.61611, 1.61654, hit BE= +4.3 pips ... :)
My stats since 01-20-2011: Total: +92.8 pips



Testing other systems, subject to back testing.
Lost my back testing system, and I don't have time right now to get it back.

FMT 4.2 EA, GBPUSD M15 Chart, UK time zone.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: SL=40, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 pips
13:15 start, no trade, 0.0 pips ... :-|
My stats since 02-01-2011: Total: -150.5 pips

FMT 4.2 EA, EURUSD M15 Chart, UK time zone.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: SL=40, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 pips
13:15 start, no trade, 0.0 pips ... :-|
My stats since 02-01-2011: Total: +42.1 pips

FMT 4.2 EA, EURUSD/USDCHF M15 Chart, UK time zone.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: SL=20, TP=7, BE=0
23:00 start, EURUSD, buy trade, 1.35627, 1.35710, hit TP= +8.3 pips
23:00 start, USDCHF, no trade, 0.0 pips
Total for both trades: +8.3 pips ... :)
My stats since 02-03-2011: Total: -33.6 pips
 
Drummer Boy said:
Greetings All.......
My personal view is that perhaps we should evalutate more consistent smaller gains with comparably smaller and, if possible, much fewer losses or B/E's to build realistics profits..........DB.
Click to expand...

DB,

Not sure if it satisfies your criteria but 40SL / 10 TP works for me. It gives small but consistent daily gains. Although the risk reward ratio is quite poor, thankfully the losing trades are rare. (According to my figures, the last losing trade for this system was 05/01/11, so it has had a pretty good run so far.)

Regards,

Philip.
 
My personal view is that perhaps we should evalutate more consistent smaller gains with comparably smaller and, if possible, much fewer losses or B/E's to build realistics profits.

Welcome Drummer Boy.

You've raised a very interesting point here. Ref Barry Burns, a charming trader/coach, who gives away a solid email course (no affiliate). He has three -traders tips sheets. One is about how to lower risk, by taking a 'part' (50%?) of your trade off at what seems like a tiny pip gain.
He explains it by saying you twice as likely to get, say, 10 pips, than 15 pips. Real money banked. If you do the maths, you have lowered your total exposure to something like 30% of what it was.
My experience is that, to start with, you seek the biggest pip gain.When I look at a pro traders approach, including James 16, perhaps because they are dealing with larger real money amounts, they do seem to be happy with a smaller pip gain on a part of the trade.....
At the moment, I go to BE at 10 pips. Someone asked (seriously) why do I bother trading, when I'm cutting off my chances of a winner. This is my explanation.
I'm now considering taking off a portion at this 10 pips (backtested sweet spot).

I'd like to here Wiseambitions views on this, and other seasoned traders.
 
I am getting to the opit where i want to grow my bank and am happy to do it slowly. I have taken 5 pips a day this week. There might be a more optimal point of profit but i am waiting to find it. It has needed a large stop to keep me out of a big loss several times. I find 40 is tolerable for me. I am sure there is a combination method whihc will work best and tweak and tweak and tweak again.
25 - 28 TP has been good. Maybe the breakeven at 5 pips would be better - then I could take some bigger wins when they are available too!
 
JRJ said:
I am getting to the opit where i want to grow my bank and am happy to do it slowly. I have taken 5 pips a day this week. There might be a more optimal point of profit but i am waiting to find it. It has needed a large stop to keep me out of a big loss several times. I find 40 is tolerable for me. I am sure there is a combination method whihc will work best and tweak and tweak and tweak again.
25 - 28 TP has been good. Maybe the breakeven at 5 pips would be better - then I could take some bigger wins when they are available too!
Click to expand...

Seeing that in the long term average, all of the settings FMT recommends and any tweaks suggested by posters here only achieve a mean result of around 7 to 10 pips a day (balancing out TPs and SLs and BEs) would it not just be lovely to find a setting which gave 8 pips, or 10 pips, even 11, guaranteed ! ! !! They would probably be quick trades, over and out usually before London even opens, and we might be better able to claim the outcome within an hour or two is more likely to be credit to FMT than so many trades which drift about for ages before hitting one stop or the other.

Unfortunately the simple setting which guarantees 8 pips or 10 even does not exist, but I have found for the purposes of compounding to build up the highest amount of capital that it is not a case of the most overall pips, it is also related to the % of winning trades, profit factor, and drawdown. So the most pips in a month or year or more aren't the main determinant of success either!
 
WiseAmbitions
Unfortunately the simple setting which guarantees 8 pips or 10 even does not exist, but I have found for the purposes of compounding to build up the highest amount of capital that it is not a case of the most overall pips, it is also related to the % of winning trades, profit factor, and drawdown. So the most pips in a month or year or more aren't the main determinant of success either!
Quote.

Good Old money management rules the day! On days like today, cutting risk by taking partial profits at 10 pips sounds like a great idea!
Chris
 
chrisheath said:
50% trade off 10 TP , rest to BE. 40% off 28 TP. 10% worst case = £0. Best case??
Click to expand...

It would be interesting if those settings could be used on the TMT and what kind of results in backtesting it would bring...interested.(y)
 
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