It would be interesting if those settings could be used on the TMT and what kind of results in backtesting it would bring...interested.
Yea, that would be interesting indeed! I was just thinking the same thing
Yea, that would be interesting indeed! I was just thinking the same thing
Drummer Boy
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I'm with you on this one. I have a feeling it might be possible to set up IG's spread betting platform to provide this. I have always done trailing stops manually but can't sit watching the trade all day. Of course with IG we still need to open the trade manually.
Haven't tried the FMT bot yet, but from the conversation it doesn't sound like it will allow these parameters. As I don't have a live account with an MT4 broker I must presume that it is possible to put in trailing stops and partial limit orders. Having said this I'm not sure if this can be done at the time you place the trade or if you have to go back in after the trade is made. I think that this applies to non dealing desk brokers (STP ECN). I believe that dealing desk brokers allow you set set limit orders and stops at the time the trade is made. Having said this, I'm not sure that we should be considering these crooks when looking to gain 10 pips.
Of course IG would also fall into this category but I take the view that on a spread betting account what you get ripped off with their spreads and spikes etc., you make up for by not having to paying 40% tax. Assuming that is, we're making any profit.
Rgds
DB
deserteagle
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I'm still traped between BE and TP.
catfish911
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Out (eventually) at +30, but at least a double risk day today (I trade double risk on Thurs/Fridays) so makes up for the two losers Mon and Weds. Let's hope for a nice finish to the week tomorrow ;-)
sorry, I'm being thick, can you explain - I'm sure it is interesting!
I have also looked at the results for Feb, from Marc's journal and actually I don't think they look at all bad (don't like Jan, but nobody else did either!!)
Drummer Boy
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Me too. I'm going to close the position because the price action seems pretty much glued to the daily pivot. Also the range is only 70. Yesterday it was 200.
There's a couple of news releases due at 1500 GMT which might free things up a bit. But one of them is Chairman Ben whaffling on. So I doubt if there's going to be any dramatic statment (as with NFP's) that'll cause a major move immediately.
DB
chrisheath
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Sure, its from 2 or 3 different traders' ideas. Whatever your initial stake, say 1.0 lot, you take off 0.5 lots when your'e 10 pips in profit. You move the stop on the remaining 0.5 lots to 'breakeven', you're then in a free trade, with some profit already banked. Then you take 0.4 lots off at 28 pips profit (or whatever target ). So far, you can do this mechanically.
The remaining 10%, you trade semi discretionally, (if there is such a word!) You are basically leaving this to 'run' with a loose stop, however you want to trail it. Ideally, you want you're initial trade to be in the same direction as the 'daily trend' . Such as now. (Easy way - daily RSI > 50%). You're hoping to not get stopped out at BE, but no pain if you do. But it may run 200-300 pips, or more.
Its easy to operate, and I think it uses some sound money management. It keeps risk low, yet allows you to 'let your profits run'. It suits my risk tolerance.I can go into more specifics, eg how to get max pips on the runner.
But I'd like an experienced trader to comment.
Chris.
PS. 10pips and 28 pips show up well in backtesting. It would be hard to backtest the whole thing, because of the 10%.
deserteagle
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After more than 8 hours ....finally +43 ...what a day!
wiseambitions
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Yes, I bet you wondered what you'd touch first, BE or TP!
Results from the last 100 trades, including holidays. These trades opened 3 4 or 5 times a week since late August 2010.
FMT original 40/40 + 640
New FMT 35/40/BE + 685
Careful 30/40 + 760
V Cautious 10/40 +800
Deserteagle 43/65/BE +874
Results from just the last 50 trades: Remember these do include losses that might have been avoided for taking time away at Christmas
FMT original ZERO
New FMT -50
Careful -110
V Cautious +350 (wow!)
Deserteagle +80
Very interesting indeed !..
makes me wonder how 15/40 or even 20/40 would compare ?
thanks !..
wiseambitions
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Very interesting indeed !..
makes me wonder how 15/40 or even 20/40 would compare ?
thanks !..
I hope to add results for one or the other of those settings after the weekend.
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Having looked at best available data for various exits I'm still amazed that the original 40/40 settings without the breakeven resets do very well.
In the context of 50 trades (since November), 100 trades (since August), 150 (since May) and 200 (since January 2010) it has shown better results than the revised recommendation (35/40/BE) in all except one of those columns
chrisheath
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WiseAmbitions, Thanks for your research! I do like the look of those V Cautious stats. The problem with 10 pips is the loss due to the spread. Can you say what spread was used on the backtest, and if it would affect the pip total?
wiseambitions
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I have accounted for the spread. My broker charges me 2 pips, the difference between his buy and sell price.
I think even if your broker charged slightly more those 10 pips would still be available, I have allowed a slight margin because there may be times with some super-fast spikes that a stop isn't taken.
wiseambitions
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Very interesting indeed !..
makes me wonder how 15/40 or even 20/40 would compare ?
thanks !..
In preliminary tests, 20/40 seems to be a black hole! It is significantly worse than 10/40 and worse than 40/40 as well.
Looking at the last 50 trades including holiday period:
1) at 10/40 +350
2) at 20/40 MINUS 200
3) at 30/40 MINUS 110
4) at 40/40 ZERO
More meaningful analysis may come from excluding the holiday period when I can look at say 3 months to 10th December and further back than that. One thing is for sure, I'd rather take a fairly guaranteed win of 10 pips (only 6% of such trades went to SL) than try for 20 and get knocked out 40% of the time. This is a measure of just how treacherous the last couple or three months have been for this system.
40/40 might have been knocked out 50% of the time, but the 50:50 risk/reward ratio gave a zero outcome!
chrisheath
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Wise - I'd rather take a fairly guaranteed win of 10 pips (only 6% of such trades went to SL) than try for 20 and get knocked out 40% of the time.
___
10 pips - 50 trades - 47wins - 3 losses. (Thats +470 -120 ). Sold to the man in pink!
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10 pips - 50 trades - 47wins - 3 losses. (Thats +470 -120 ). Sold to the man in pink!
wiseambitions
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In the pink?
I shall be careful what I say about that :-0I'm amazed of course with the results, however there are other correspondents on the forum who speak of similar gains from such settings.
So far as I can see, using 10/40, and the last 50 traded days, starting 22/November there were only losses on the 22nd and 29th Dec and New Year.
And your calculations are correct.
I found that if you don't allow the crazy risk reward ratio (40SL) you get stopped out more and the % of winners and the number of pips in a series of dates is lower. 40SL takes the next 4 wins to restore the drawdown, but those numbers still stack up.
Wouldn't compounding (MM 5%) make this strategy much less profitable? The first 40SL draws down more valuable pips, and the 4 x 10 tp's, even consecutively, would still not make up the profit lost on the initial -40. I'm pretty new at this, and need guidance.
Lady Forex
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Wouldn't compounding (MM 5%) make this strategy much less profitable? The first 40SL draws down more valuable pips, and the 4 x 10 tp's, even consecutively, would still not make up the profit lost on the initial -40. I'm pretty new at this, and need guidance.
The key factor is the number of wins versus losses. You can have a bad risk/reward ratio and still do well. You just have to have a system that consistently makes more wins than losses. However, you do have to be very careful when trading with a bad r/r ratio. There are not many systems that are good enough to be successful with a bad r/r. So far it is looking good with FMT. I tend to like the 10/40 method. Slow but steady. Same essence as the penny a day theory.
I am also playing with the idea of using 40/40 on the short trades all nights except Sunday. Has anyone researched this? I also considered only using this method on Thurs and Friday.
Lady Forex
