ForexMorningTrade System

[deserteagle]

+43 on Alpari UK

 

[deserteagle]

long trade opened 1.6041 06.30GMT. Good luck guys. We need it.

Returns from the latest 100 trades (inc holidays) arising since mid August (at my broker)

Original FMT settings 4040 +720 59 wins
New FMT 35/40/BE@20 +680 48 wins 25 losses
Deserteagle 43/65/BE@20 +831 42 wins 15 losses
28/40 +692 69 wins

Hi Wise, thanks for calculating the stats with set 43/65/BE@20.

 

[wiseambitions]

There were 60 pips there for the taking, prior to 09.30 UK news which smashed it by 50 fairly promptly.

And oh, the number of people thinking of quitting on this and other boards. They'd have been saying this several times in the last 3 or 4 years if FMT were then available, so what's new?

Returns in the last 100 trades:
@ 40/40 720
@ 35/40+BE 720
@ 43/65+BE as per Deserteagle 874

Returns in the last 50 trades
@ 40/40 0
@ 35/40+BE minus 90
@ 43/65 +BE plus 123

The last 50 and 100 trades obviously include Christmas

We need to keep an eye on the fact that the original FMT recommendation of 40/40 was well advised and to check whether the current setting 35/40+BE is really any better. I know Marc may have long term back tests to prove this, but recent conditions are not typical.

Even 10tp/40sl is a steady set for those who want fewer losing days.

Perhaps a good strategy would be to split the stops, to get a reasonable average, due to the fickle market conditions we are going through.

 

[chrisheath]

Wise , have you seen any compelling evidence to suggest it might be worthwhile to have different settings (and/or different lotsize) for short and long?

Chris

 

[wiseambitions]

Wise , have you seen any compelling evidence to suggest it might be worthwhile to have different settings (and/or different lotsize) for short and long?

Chris

The evidence that would seem compelling to me is to look at the last 100 trades commencing 06.30 UK time, (BST in summer and GMT in winter), with the wide settings proposed by Deserteagle (43TP.65sl.BE@20).
He would have had 15 losing trades

13 of those losers arose on long trades (eg yesterday)
but only 2 of those losses arose on shorts.


I'd suggest there are usually therefore 43 pips for taking on short days, but less than 43 on longs. And I'd like to find out how many would be the optimum. I know 10 is fairly reliable (10TP/40SL) but wish to work on 20TP and test that. I'm not confident in the data in my metatrader strategy tester using the FMT EA so tend to do my calculations the hard way! Nevertheless I am sure there is a difference to the best settings and that the forex gods are laughing at everybody who wants a simple universal setting. There is a difference between longs and shorts. Longs may still be worth trading, but probably in pursuit of fewer pips

 

[catfish911]

+30 pips on Alpari UK, after a slightly scary ride. Thanks FMT

 

[Jashfx]

The evidence that would seem compelling to me is to look at the last 100 trades commencing 06.30 UK time, (BST in summer and GMT in winter), with the wide settings proposed by Deserteagle (43TP.65sl.BE@20).
He would have had 15 losing trades

13 of those losers arose on long trades (eg yesterday)
but only 2 of those losses arose on shorts.


There is a difference between longs and shorts. Longs may still be worth trading, but probably in pursuit of fewer pips

Your findings are quite interesting Wise. Many a year ago I remember reading something entitled 'Shorting the Market'. I have always wondered if there was some element of truth to the suggested idea that NO MATTER WHICH MARKET its traded, shorting the market drops a lot quicker as does a market which rises. Ive never personally traded based on this suggestion but it is something that has remained with me ever since I read it.

I wonder if it would be an idea to forward test --- Im not saying implement a strategy -- but forward test (notes or a mental note) a reversal trade when its going against us (BUT ONLY WHEN WE IN A LONG). If its true that more longs are losers we could hedge our trade to some extent. BUT ONLY ON LONGS. Today for instance we could of made pips both ways. An exit strategy would be up to each individual.

If we were to try and do this in both direction, we would undoubtedly come unstuck.

Im just thinking out loud based on your findings of longs being more likely to lose than shorts.

 

[chrisheath]

Wise , thanks for your detailed analysis. It surely implies that doubling the stake on a short (even above the industry standard limit of 2%) to say 4%, would entail little risk of ruin. You could then ignore longs...I know it goes against the grain somehow, but the backtest 'facts' are facts.

 

[Jashfx]

Wise , thanks for your detailed analysis. It surely implies that doubling the stake on a short (even above the industry standard limit of 2%) to say 4%, would entail little risk of ruin. You could then ignore longs...I know it goes against the grain somehow, but the backtest 'facts' are facts.

Increasing the Risk per trade for shorts than longs could be a better idea than ignoring the longs altogether. I would not ignore the long trades becuase in FEB ( my results) trading at 35 TP, SL 40 and 20B/E are:

7 wins and only two losses ( Alpair UK).

Of the 7 wins 4 were buys meaning + 60 pips profit so you dont want to be leaving these pips on the table.

No Sell losses this month (for me anyway) but 3 wins == +105 pips thus far. So a little extra% risk would so far be a great return and maybe this is a good idea and way forward.

 

[PipZombie]

Increasing the Risk per trade for shorts than longs could be a better idea than ignoring the longs altogether. I would not ignore the long trades becuase in FEB ( my results) trading at 35 TP, SL 40 and 20B/E are:

7 wins and only two losses ( Alpair UK).

Of the 7 wins 4 were buys meaning + 60 pips profit so you dont want to be leaving these pips on the table.

No Sell losses this month (for me anyway) but 3 wins == +105 pips thus far. So a little extra% risk would so far be a great return and maybe this is a good idea and way forward.

Pick a coin and flip it. What I mean is pick setting your comfortable with and stick with them. I use the standard settings recommended by Mark. There are other good settings as per the posts here. You are simply trading a system with a bias for a buy or sell of a mini trend.

 

[Jashfx]

Pick a coin and flip it. What I mean is pick setting your comfortable with and stick with them. I use the standard settings recommended by Mark. There are other good settings as per the posts here. You are simply trading a system with a bias for a buy or sell of a mini trend.

Agree with you totally!! I have not traded any other way other than recommended settings since I bought the system last September and results are just fine.

My comment(s) above are more in response to WISE's FINDINGS about losing trades being more often Buys than Sells. He has obviouls done a bit of homework and cannot ignore the stats.

I probably wont change anything but it will be interesting to see if the trend continues that Buys are more likely to lose than Sells.

 

[Icepop]

In the last 31 trades, (from 4th Jan 11) I have made 95 pips always using 25TP & 40 SL. Of these 33 trades, 6 have been no trade days. 11 have been short trades and 14 have been long trades.
Out of the 11 short trades, 3 have been losses.
Out of the 14 long trades, 5 have been losses

1 short trade i got out at +9 which would have been a -40
1 long trade I got out at 0 which also would have been a loss

Interesting results!

 

[jrcollins2009]

For those interested in testing the long vs. short theory, why not set up 2 FMT charts on the same account (with different magic numbers). Change the Common parameter on 1 to Long only and the other to Short only. You could then vary the risk, TP or SL separately. Only one would trigger each day so you don't need to be concerned about margin impact.

 

[hammy66]

FMT for me today:

6:00 start, buy trade, hit SL -40 pips
6:15 start, buy trade, hit TP +26 pips
6:30 start, buy trade, hit TP +31 pips
6:45 start, buy trade, hit TP +27 pips

total profit today +44 pips..

 

[catfish911]

Hi, I see lots of talk around Buys vs Sells, and have done some analysis for 2009 and 2010. I also think it is intereresting to look at Win Rate by day of the week:

Win Ratio by Buy/Sell position:

Num Buys Wins Lose Buy Wins% Buy Loses%
2009 91 65 26 71% 29%
Num Sells Wins Lose Sell Wins% Sell Loses%
2009 93 73 20 78% 22%


Num Buys Wins Lose Buy Wins% Buy Loses%
2010 106 81 25 76% 24%
Num Sells Wins Lose Sell Wins% Sell Loses%
2010 87 73 14 84% 16%

2009 Year by Day of Week:
Win Lose Total Win% Lose%
Mon 26 7 33 79% 21%
Tues 23 11 34 68% 32%
Weds 30 14 44 68% 32%
Thurs 29 5 34 85% 15%
Fri 30 9 39 77% 23%

2010 Year by Day of Week:
Win Lose Total Win% Lose%
Mon 33 11 44 75% 25%
Tues 28 8 36 78% 22%
Weds 29 7 36 81% 19%
Thurs 32 7 39 82% 18%
Fri 32 6 38 84% 16%

Settings for the above are TP 30/SL 48, which I found optimum for a fairly smooth equity growth curve and a win ratio of 75% 2009 and 80% 2010. Note also that I take some discretionary trades (eg Buy if Momentum > 99.9x and CCI positive etc) so my trades aren't 100% according to FMT rules, and also I shut off trades the last two weeks of December.

So in terms of win rates of Buy vs Sell, I find a 7% favourable bias for Sells over Buys over the 2 year period, but I wouldn't leave Buy trades as they still contribute to growth. However, I do see that Thursdays and Fridays have been consistently high in terms of win rate, so I load Thursday/Friday trades with extra risk size. I've found so far in 2011, Thursdays have had 100% win rate and Fridays 67% win rate (obviously not much data so far though). I do agree that Sells tend to reach TP faster than Buys, due to the nature of the market and panic selling vs cautious buying. So my 'safest' FMT signal seems to be a Sell on a Thursday or Friday. Food for thought, good luck to all with FMT, I personally think it's a great system assuming you trade according to the rules and don't be tempted to 'tweak' as you go along, there's a setting that everyone is comfortable with, just do your own testing and make sure you understand the risks from the odd 'bad run'

 

[GumRai]

Your findings are quite interesting Wise. Many a year ago I remember reading something entitled 'Shorting the Market'. I have always wondered if there was some element of truth to the suggested idea that NO MATTER WHICH MARKET its traded, shorting the market drops a lot quicker as does a market which rises. Ive never personally traded based on this suggestion but it is something that has remained with me ever since I read it. .................

I have also read this somewhere, but possibly this only applies only to commodities, shares etc.

I think that this doesn't really apply to Forex, because whenever you trade a currency pair you are always effectively shorting one or the other.
ie. when you go long with GBPUSD, you are effectively shorting the USD.

 

[ritzn75]

I have also read this somewhere, but possibly this only applies only to commodities, shares etc.

I think that this doesn't really apply to Forex, because whenever you trade a currency pair you are always effectively shorting one or the other.
ie. when you go long with GBPUSD, you are effectively shorting the USD.

I think what he meant by Shorting is that Market take a while to RISE but DROP in an instant (or rather much faster than in UP Trend)

Thats the Law of Gravity.

BTW, I love this FMT Journal

 

[Remraf]

Some great analysis on here today, plenty to think about, but as Wise and Catfish reminds us, FMT still works really well on the standard settings, clearly demonstrated today when the SL just kept us in to reap the reversal and reach the +35 TP (even though I got it wrong with my IG account I still managed a BE day on my live trading before going to the office!) although I'm getting a little nervous on LONGS at 6.30am start as today wasn't the first time the market quickly goes in the opposite direction (it certainly must shake a lot out of the market before it thinks about reversing - I'm watching Deserteagle's 65SL with interest as it seems to ride out these early fluctuations. FMT is new to me since January, as I have usually traded on Daily movements and continue to use that strategy on medium/longer term trading so looking at the trend following software I use, it'll be interesting to see if the LONGS improve, as I got a signal today that the short term down trend (1.6039 8/2/11) has reversed at 1.6076. Anyway, we'll see what tomorrow brings. Chris

 

[OWL75]

Got my first real live money win this morning! Crazy early retirement here I come!

Seriously though, I want to say that I have learn a great amount from this forum, with much still to learn. I am appreciative, as well as comforted to know that there is a community of FMTers here to lean on.

Remember...if thing worked 100% of the time, everyone would do it.

 

[OWL75]

Also, over the forseeable future, I am going to ask some very elementary questions. Thanks for your help in advance.