My 6:15 trade got knocked out at BE+7. My 6:30 trade is still in it because it didn't move the stop yet.
My 6:15 trade got knocked out at BE+7. My 6:30 trade is still in it because it didn't move the stop yet.
Just found out that Retail Sales numbers from the UK are to be announced at 9.30am. If they are below expectation this will be bearish, according to http://www.henryliuforex.com/2964/forex-news-trading-uk-retail-sales-mm-012111/.
Sorry, but 1 min data are not tick data !!!
Only Alpari RU still provides good data. Much better than ForexTester data.
The best of course would be the data from DukasCopy, but difficult to get.
Antomi
wiseambitions
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Bad UK retail sales figures. Bad for GU. We should have known figures wouldn't be good - snow kept shoppers away last month in spite of Christmas
wiseambitions
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my analysis, Jan 2 to 21, 2011 06.30AM starts.
At 40TP/40SL. 4 wins 6 losses. -80
At 35TP/40SL. 4 wins 6 losses -100
At 28TP/40SL. 5 wins 5 losses - 60
At 35TP/40SL, BE@20, 5 break evens, 3 wins, 2 losses +30 pips
A setting at which 9/10 trades would win would be around TP14/SL40
What I think we're seeing in the last 3 weeks is that there is not often enough inertia in the market to see TP being achieved before the FMT effect fizzles out.
BE is working more often than it may have done in the past, to save you before the trade goes completely the wrong way. And those who add a few pips to BE do a bit better than those who don't for similar reasons
At 40TP/40SL. 4 wins 6 losses. -80
At 35TP/40SL. 4 wins 6 losses -100
At 28TP/40SL. 5 wins 5 losses - 60
At 35TP/40SL, BE@20, 5 break evens, 3 wins, 2 losses +30 pips
A setting at which 9/10 trades would win would be around TP14/SL40
What I think we're seeing in the last 3 weeks is that there is not often enough inertia in the market to see TP being achieved before the FMT effect fizzles out.
BE is working more often than it may have done in the past, to save you before the trade goes completely the wrong way. And those who add a few pips to BE do a bit better than those who don't for similar reasons
Jashfx
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deserteagle
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I'm still in and getting positive 
Entered at 1,59243 Alpari UK - SL 65 TP 43 BE 20
Entered at 1,59243 Alpari UK - SL 65 TP 43 BE 20
wiseambitions
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Maybe the malaise of the FMT system right now can be summed up as follows:
1) If you traded at 40TP/40SL which were the example settings of the demos upon which FMT is promoted, you'd have been in drawdown ever since 18th October. The number of pips gained balance out with losses between then and now.
2) At 35TP, you'd now be level with your start point as at 7th October
3) At 28TP, ditto, since 13th October.
These bad periods have existed in backtests for example first half of 2008, and yet in the medium term the system turned round into a highly profitable run.
Number of wins in the latest 50 trades
At 40TP 36%
At 35TP 36%
At 28TP 44%
Number of wins in the latest 100 trades.
At 40TP 54%
At 35TP 58%
At 28TP 69%
Number of wins in the latest 200 trades.
At 40TP 60%
At 35TP 63%
At 28TP 72%
The system has definitely had better runs. But if we don't stick with it there's a chance we'd miss out on 500 pips in the next 3 months!
1) If you traded at 40TP/40SL which were the example settings of the demos upon which FMT is promoted, you'd have been in drawdown ever since 18th October. The number of pips gained balance out with losses between then and now.
2) At 35TP, you'd now be level with your start point as at 7th October
3) At 28TP, ditto, since 13th October.
These bad periods have existed in backtests for example first half of 2008, and yet in the medium term the system turned round into a highly profitable run.
Number of wins in the latest 50 trades
At 40TP 36%
At 35TP 36%
At 28TP 44%
Number of wins in the latest 100 trades.
At 40TP 54%
At 35TP 58%
At 28TP 69%
Number of wins in the latest 200 trades.
At 40TP 60%
At 35TP 63%
At 28TP 72%
The system has definitely had better runs. But if we don't stick with it there's a chance we'd miss out on 500 pips in the next 3 months!
Last edited:
deserteagle
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I'm still in and getting positive
Entered at 1,59243 Alpari UK - SL 65 TP 43 BE 20
Closed at +43 :clap:
This week 3 wins, 1 loss.
I'm running TMT: SL=50, BE1=20, BE1+0, BE2=30, BE2+25, TP1=35, TP1%=75%, TP2=45
So I've been messaged by someone requesting the historical data from Dukascopy in MT4 format. Being a bit lazy if you ask me, but ask and you shall recieve
Here it is. Also, here's a set file with my settings. I'm not sure how long I'll keep these here, so better grab them sooner rather than later.Things to keep in mind when using Dukascopy data with MT4:
- I'm using Windows 7, and to get this work I had to put these files here, not the typical place you put EA's.:
Code:C:\Users\[username]\AppData\Local\VirtualStore\Program Files (x86)\MetaTrader 4\experts\files - You must run the "birt's patch" script before you do any backtesting, otherwise this won't work and MT4 will overwrite the 99% modeling quality data with it's crappy data. You have to run this script every time you reopen your terminal. You can set the parameter with the "RealSpreads" to true.
- If you're using the Dukascopy data with backtests, the backtests are ran on Dukascopy's time, which is GMT+0. In other words, make sure you start this thing at 5:30 on backtests if you're running FMT. I've had better results ranging from 5:15-5:45 with TMT.
- I only know this stuff from reading this excellent tutorial, so if you're having issues please look over there first before asking me.
- This data only goes back to 2009.01.01 because I wanted to keep the file size down and because I think backtesting any farther than that is useless because the market was so crazy in 2008.
- The "Broker" folder in "history" needs to be the folder for your broker.
Good luck!
I'd also like to state that I am going live with these settings and that this is somewhat of an experiment. These settings have not been thoroughly forward tested by me, but based on previous years forward tests by other traders and my extensive backtests I am confident that this will work. That said, don't blame me if this blows your account.
FMT for me today:
6:00 start, No Trade
6:15 start, buy trade, BE+5 pips
6:30 start, buy trade, hit SL -44 pips
6:45 start, buy trade, hit SL -44 pips
another bad day for FMT. net loss -83 pips... :-\
a rare losing week for FMT, maybe a losing month if it doesn't string some TPs for us.
have a great weekend !
6:00 start, No Trade
6:15 start, buy trade, BE+5 pips
6:30 start, buy trade, hit SL -44 pips
6:45 start, buy trade, hit SL -44 pips
another bad day for FMT. net loss -83 pips... :-\
a rare losing week for FMT, maybe a losing month if it doesn't string some TPs for us.
have a great weekend !
I'm running TMT: SL=50, BE1=20, BE1+0, BE2=30, BE2+25, TP1=35, TP1%=75%, TP2=45
So I've been messaged by someone requesting the historical data from Dukascopy in MT4 format. Being a bit lazy if you ask me, but ask and you shall recieve
Things to keep in mind when using Dukascopy data with MT4:
- I'm using Windows 7, and to get this work I had to put these files here, not the typical place you put EA's.:
Code:C:\Users\[username]\AppData\Local\VirtualStore\Program Files (x86)\MetaTrader 4\experts\files- You must run the "birt's patch" script before you do any backtesting, otherwise this won't work and MT4 will overwrite the 99% modeling quality data with it's crappy data. You have to run this script every time you reopen your terminal. You can set the parameter with the "RealSpreads" to true.
- If you're using the Dukascopy data with backtests, the backtests are ran on Dukascopy's time, which is GMT+0. In other words, make sure you start this thing at 5:30 on backtests if you're running FMT. I've had better results ranging from 5:15-5:45 with TMT.
- I only know this stuff from reading this excellent tutorial, so if you're having issues please look over there first before asking me.
- This data only goes back to 2009.01.01 because I wanted to keep the file size down and because I think backtesting any farther than that is useless because the market was so crazy in 2008.
- The "Broker" folder in "history" needs to be the folder for your broker.
Good luck!
I'd also like to state that I am going live with these settings and that this is somewhat of an experiment. These settings have not been thoroughly forward tested by me, but based on previous years forward tests by other traders and my extensive backtests I am confident that this will work. That said, don't blame me if this blows your account.
Hey billcurry,
You are lucky, that the internet-technique is not so advanced that I can kiss you
.Thanks a lot for the data. Download is ok, now the weekend is gone.
.I will let you know how it works.
Have a great weekend.
Cheers
Antomi
Bill,
Where do I get "birt's patch" script? Is it only for use with Windows 7? I run Metatrader on my Mac with Codeweaver's Windows emulation program in XP mode.
Also, I notice that a lot of you use large SL numbers. In the past, on choppy days or days with weak signals, I would enter on pullbacks. In the future, I plan on entering with a limit order. I would prefer to enter on a -10 limit order, using 40 SL, the enter a market order with a 50 SL. Especially with a lower target.
Ivan
Why do you chose TP14? You have to make 3 wins to cancel out one loss. What about TP20? Now we get loads of those!!
What kind of win rate do you have with your settings to breakeven. Am I looking at it correctly that you need about a 60% win rate just to breakeven? What has been your trackrecord with these settings?
wiseambitions
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I wouldn't wish to disagree, if you had say 80pc wins at 20TP I'm sure the r/r ratio would lend to a better PF than 90pc wins at about 12,
Anyway the main concern we have at the moment is that the FMT effect is not producing the power of burst that it used to do. In the long run TP in region of 30 gives a great gain, but we are wondering now why it just isn't happening.
I'm finding by looking at 4 years of backtests that there are generally 3 or 4 losing months during a year in spite of a good annual result. But there is no particular pattern as to when the bad and good patches occur. Nevertheless when we're getting wins of less than 40pc in bad patches, you could rightly say the toss of a coin stands a better chance of giving the right signal. I don't know how to explain it any differently, other than to say the medium term history still does inspire me with confidence.
