ForexMorningTrade System

[PipZombie]

Hi just joining thread

What was I supposed to get out of this with regard to trading?

 

[Lord Flasheart]

What was I supposed to get out of this with regard to trading?

not sure what your point is, i was just joining to read the thread,whats wrong with that

 

[joke]

'Live' Accounts:

01-19-2011, FMT 4.2, Long/Loss, FXSolutions, dealing desk, 1.6023, 1.5983, -40.0
My stats since 11-08-2010: 11 No Trades, 14 Break Evens, 16 Losses, 12 Profits, Total: -236.0 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP

01-18-2011, FMT 4.2, Long/Loss, IBFX, non-dealing desk, 1.60230, 1.59828, -40.2
My stats since 01-04-2010: 4 No Trades, 3 Break Evens, 3 Loss, 1 Profits, Total: -89.4 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP



Demo Accounts:

01-19-2011, FMT 4.2, 6: Long/Loss at non-dealing desk brokers:
PFG Best, 1.60228, 1.59824, -40.4
FOREX.com, 1.60233, 1.59822, -41.1
MB Trading, 1.60233, 1.59806, -42.7
FXCM, 1.60233, 1.59832, -40.1
Alpari(US), 1.60228, 1.59823, -40.0
FXDD, 1.60235, 1.59826, -40.9



Modified hammy66's system:
01-19-2010, FMT 4.2 EA, set 5 separate GU M15 Charts each separated by 30 minutes using a different magic number.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: TP=30, SL=44, BE=20, BE+5 pips, UK time zone.

6:00 start, buy trade, hit SL= -44.4 pips
6:30 start, buy trade, hit SL= -46.4 pips
7:00 start, buy trade, hit SL= -44.0 pips
7:30 start, buy trade, hit SL= -45.0 pips
8:00 start, buy trade, hit SL= -44.2 pips

for today -224.0 pips ... :-(

My stats since 01-11-2010: Total: -114.5 pips

It was a blood bath . . . First time worse case happens.



Failing to accurately paper trade is a very common mistake. The trading system must be tested through various market conditions to ensure its future profitability and to gain the confidence of the trader. Although many traders do not paper trade their system, it rarely prevents them from proceeding.

Without reliable statistics about how the system performs, the trader does not know what to expect. After a string of a few losing trades, the trader will become disillusioned with the system. Most traders will stop trading the system and move on to the next “flavor of the month” trading system.

Although a trading system may be profitable in general, it is almost certain that, at some point, the system will sustain losses. This is a fact of life. . . Quoted from http://www.iexpertadvisor.com/ib38.asp



BACK TESTING:


!!!YOU CAN NOT TRUST METATRADER HISTORICAL RESULTS!!! You will get junk . . .


I've been trading FMT now for over 2 months. Nov & Dec are hard months to trade.
But I traded anyway because I wanted to know how robust FMT would be.

I took my real trading data and Mark's real trading data during those two months and compared the data to the my back testing.

I imported M1 data to the MetaTrader platform. The data is free from http://www.forextester.com/data/datasources.html They have good data from 2001 to 2010. They update at the end of every month. For Jan 2011 data, you would have to wait till the month is over.


Here are the real trading results between Mark and my trades using the standard setting:
Test period from 11-08-2010 to 12-31-2010:
System: Total number of trades, Total real trading pips at the end of the test period
RedGuerrilla: 32, -148 pips
Mark Fric: 29, -83 pips


Here are the back tested results for the time period that Mark and I traded in real time using the standard settings:
Test period from 11-08-2010 to 12-31-2010:
System: Total number of trades, Total back tested pips at the end of the test period
Back Test: 25, -30.7 pips


Mark's standard settings: TP=35, SL=40, BE=20, one trade per day at 6:30 UK time.

As you can see, even comparing real trading results with another trader, you're going to get different results because of differences in brokers. But all the trades were in the same direction, sometimes there were no trades or break evens, but never one trade going short while the other going long. But the key point is that the graphs were all very similar. In other words, the best you can hope for with back testing, with good data, is a very good estimate!

Also remember, Mark changed the parameters starting in Nov, to tweak FMT for better performance, which my back testing confirms did help. But these new parameters have only been in real time use for about two and half months.

Anyway, I decided to do my own tweaking. I tried all the ideas I've thinking about during these pass two months. But hammy66's ideas were the best. Because based on my back testing, I think he has the best settings.

I back tested the system that I've been testing on a demo account, where I trade 5 times every 30 minutes, starting at 6:00 UK time. The results were very bad. Plus, it was just too much risk.
But what I found out, thanks to hammy66, was that the best time to trade is at 6:15 UK time.


Here are hammy66's back tested results for both Nov & Dec period, using his settings:
Test period from 11-08-2010 to 12-31-2010:
hammy66's System: Time, Total number of trades, Total pips at the end of the test period
6:00, 23, +148.0 pips
6:15, 26, +237.4 pips
6:30, 25. +7.1 pips
6:45, 26, -38.3
Total: +354.2


Here are hammy66's results from when FMT started back in Aug, using his settings:
Test period from 08-02-2010 to 12-31-2010:
hammy66's System: Time, Total number of trades, Total pips at the end of the test period
6:00, 57, +491.4 pips
6:15, 65, +627.6 pips
6:30, 68, +539.8 pips
6:45, 63, +296.0 pips
Total: +1954.8


hammy66's settings: TP=30, SL=44, BE=20, BE+5 pips, UK time zone.


Here are back tested results of Mark's system compared to his real results from the time he started FMT:
Test period from 08-02-2010 to 12-31-2010:
Mark's System: Time, Total number of trades, Total pips, Real actual pips for this time period
8:30, 68, +526.0 pips, +267 pips


hammy66's system is great, but if you have a $2,000 account, that's about a 9% hit on your account, if you hit the worse case of 4 losses in a day.

I want to do what Mark is doing keeping it at 2% for a $2,000 account, which is $40 or 40 pips.
So starting now, I will discontinue testing the 5 trades per every 30 minutes.
Instead, I will start testing the new settings, SL=40, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 pips at 6:15 UK time, for just one trade per day.


Here are the results of back testing these new settings for Nov & Dec:
Test period from 11-08-2010 to 12-31-2010:
System: Total number of trades, Total pips at the end of the test period
Back Test: 65, +261.65 pips


Here are the results of back testing these new settings from Aug:
Test period from 08-02-2010 to 12-31-2010:
System: Total number of trades, Total pips at the end of the test period
Back Test: 26, +538.95 pips


Remember this is only a good estimate. In reality, I might have end up with only half the pips, but the odds are good I would have profits instead of losses. Remember, Nov & Dec are the hardest time to trade, but it's the best time to test EA's in real time.

I've learned you should always back test any EA you want to try, with good data, and confirm the best settings.

Is it possible that many EAs on sale today base their back testing results on MetaTrader historical 'junk' data?
Confirm, confirm, confirm, especially when you're going to put real money on the front line . . .

!!
GReat Job!! How about splitting your risk in half and risking 1% for your settings, and 1% for Mark's settings. This way we are still risking 2% but but at 0615 and 0630 respectfully..This way we cover all bases...Great to see all the work you put into these
settings and the differences of broker feeds. Thanks.Also, thanks to Hammy for the research inot allthe different settings. Great to see all the input and cooperation on this forum.

 

[dpe689]

Hi All!
I have little background in forex trading and just tried out FMT on Alpari UK demo account due to good reviews I've read and planning to open live account soon. Today I tried to maximize TP by using trailing stop = 35 on EA but trade close with +10.8pips which should be +35pips, need your expert advise.
SellPrice : 1.59563 Lots = 0.1
SL = 1.59455 TP = 1.58463
TradeClose at 1.59455 Profit = 10.80

EA parameters:
BrokerStopLoss = 55 BrokerTargetProfit = 110
HiddenStopLoss = 40 HiddenTargetProfit = 100
BreadEvenAtPipsProfit = 20 BreakEvenAddPips = 5
TrailingStopPips = 35 Lots = 0.1
UseMoneyManagemet = False

Thanks!

 

[billcurry]

After yesterday's loss I decided to switch over to Turbo Morning Trade since it shows less losses in backtesting and it didn't trade on yesterday's false signals. I'm running this right now with my SL=40, BE1=20, BE2=35, BE2+25, first TP at 35 pips taking 70% of the position, the second TP uses 20 trailing stop pips.

Also, to offset the losses, I've put KangarooEA on AUDUSD M5 with aggressive settings and 8% risk, as it has shown to be consistently profitable in forward and backward testing.

Today was a good day. TMT went into a short position and ended up hitting my first TP easily, exiting with 70% of the position. The downward trend continued for about 13 more pips and then completely reversed, hitting my second BE at 25 pips. Around +30 pips all together. This leaves my account right under where I started, so hopefully this begins the slow crawl into profitability

KangarooEA hasn't made a trade yet, but it is a slow EA that only trades a couple times a week, so I'm being patient.

The graphs of my account balance are starting to show a downward trend here, and if it continues then I will temporarily stop my trading and rethink my strategy.

 

[billcurry]

RedGuerrilla/hammy: Although these results (in pips) look pretty good, I'm not sure I understand the point. Sure, you're scoring way more pips, but you're also dividing your risk between four different trades, right? If not, then you're just risking more. Are there many situations where the 6:30 trade hasn't been profitable but the others have?

 

[deserteagle]

KangarooEA hasn't made a trade yet, but it is a slow EA that only trades a couple times a week, so I'm being patient.

I'm sorry for the off topic question, can you please share with us which is the rate TP/SL of the KangarooEA?

Thanks

 

[jimmc]

Hi Flash - and welcome

not sure what your point is, i was just joining to read the thread,whats wrong with that

 

[billcurry]

I'm sorry for the off topic question, can you please share with us which is the rate TP/SL of the KangarooEA?

Thanks

It's not exactly straight forward and you can't manually set TP/SL for KangarooEA. I believe the TP is 20 pips away, minus the spread, so if you have a lower spread it should preform better. I'm not sure what the SL is, because it seems to be very rare that it is hit. If you check out their website they tell you their strategy, along with forward tests (on myfxbook.com) and backward tests. So far I'm pretty impressed. It comes with a news filter that downloads historical news data so that it can be backtested accurately. It also sets the time zone of the broker automatically. These are both features I would love to see in FMT.

 

[hammy66]

FMT for me today:

6:00 start, sell trade, BE+5 pips
6:15 start, sell trade, hit TP=30
6:30 start, sell trade, hit TP=30
6:45 start, sell trade, BE+5 pips

total today +70 pips... ;D

much better than yesterday !..

 

[joke]

FMT for me today:

6:00 start, sell trade, BE+5 pips
6:15 start, sell trade, hit TP=30
6:30 start, sell trade, hit TP=30
6:45 start, sell trade, BE+5 pips

total today +70 pips... ;D

much better than yesterday !..

great job...looks like 0615 and 0630 are the good times to trade..I think that splitting 1% for risk for each time should be sufficient when trading..would you agree?

 

[hammy66]

RedGuerrilla/hammy: Although these results (in pips) look pretty good, I'm not sure I understand the point. Sure, you're scoring way more pips, but you're also dividing your risk between four different trades, right? If not, then you're just risking more. Are there many situations where the 6:30 trade hasn't been profitable but the others have?

I'm using the same lots on all 4 start times, same lots as 6:30 start time. I'm not saying these other start times are better than 6:30, they're not, but they supplement FMT strategy of only one trade. Like today I get 70 pips instead of 30 pips, yesterday was the worst case where all 4 hit SL, but I am getting more net pips with these 4 start times. Yes, I could just risk 4 times more with the 6:30 start, but that is putting all your eggs in one basket, so to speak ! Yes, there are times when the other start times do better than the 6:30 start. But even if I pick up the BE+5 trade with the other times, it's more pips ..

cheers !..

 

[deserteagle]

It's not exactly straight forward and you can't manually set TP/SL for KangarooEA. I believe the TP is 20 pips away, minus the spread, so if you have a lower spread it should preform better. I'm not sure what the SL is, because it seems to be very rare that it is hit. If you check out their website they tell you their strategy, along with forward tests (on myfxbook.com) and backward tests. So far I'm pretty impressed. It comes with a news filter that downloads historical news data so that it can be backtested accurately. It also sets the time zone of the broker automatically. These are both features I would love to see in FMT.

Thanks man, just take care about that EA, some EAs never hits the SL because they do not have it.

 

[Adamus]

I'm using the same lots on all 4 start times, same lots as 6:30 start time. I'm not saying these other start times are better than 6:30, they're not, but they supplement FMT strategy of only one trade. Like today I get 70 pips instead of 30 pips, yesterday was the worst case where all 4 hit SL, but I am getting more net pips with these 4 start times. Yes, I could just risk 4 times more with the 6:30 start, but that is putting all your eggs in one basket, so to speak ! Yes, there are times when the other start times do better than the 6:30 start. But even if I pick up the BE+5 trade with the other times, it's more pips ..

cheers !..

This is definitely worth some backtesting - very interesting idea. I was caned today because my version of the system just takes the first trade at 6, 6:15, 6:30 or 6:45 if the indicators signal - I entered at 6:00 and consequently my target was considerably lower than it would have been at 6:30. This is a backtested optimal setting for me - but doing it your way you get a good bit of diversification for free. The only downside I can see is that you might get more slippage, but I think your equity curve should be a whole lot smoother than mine.

 

[texastrooper]

How do you modify the numbers in the FMT EA? Every time I change something and close the window and open it back up the changes are not there.

 

[wiseambitions]

Since 1 January. 9 trades opened at 06.30 UK time.
5 wins 4 losses @tp28/40sl no break even resets or trailing SL. down 20 pips

latest 100 signalled trades, extending back to mid July 2010
At 28TP +760 pips 70 wins
At 35TP +425 pips 59 wins
At 40TP +400 pips 55 wins

 

[texastrooper]

Sorry for the stupid post. I should have read the instructions better.

 

[rrobichaux]

I'm using the same lots on all 4 start times, same lots as 6:30 start time. I'm not saying these other start times are better than 6:30, they're not, but they supplement FMT strategy of only one trade. Like today I get 70 pips instead of 30 pips, yesterday was the worst case where all 4 hit SL, but I am getting more net pips with these 4 start times. Yes, I could just risk 4 times more with the 6:30 start, but that is putting all your eggs in one basket, so to speak ! Yes, there are times when the other start times do better than the 6:30 start. But even if I pick up the BE+5 trade with the other times, it's more pips ..

cheers !..

Hammy,

Based on Red Geurilla and Your testing, would it be safe to say that a start time of 6:15 and 6:30 would be the best times to trade FMT if one were to use two start times?
I trade FMT at 6:30 only but use a TP=28 and SL=40 with no BE as per Wiseambitions and have found it to be profitable, but if adding a 6:15 start time to the trade would substantially increase the pips gained I would be willing to take the risk of a double entry and exposure with this system. Any comments would be welcome.

Bobby

 

[RedGuerrilla]

RedGuerrilla/hammy: Although these results (in pips) look pretty good, I'm not sure I understand the point. Sure, you're scoring way more pips, but you're also dividing your risk between four different trades, right? If not, then you're just risking more. Are there many situations where the 6:30 trade hasn't been profitable but the others have?

Yes, I agree with you, more pips more risk. But the back testing shows, even though you might have a greater draw down, it still is a very successful strategy. Also, remember risk is relative to the size of your account, losing 4 trades in a row, in a $2,000 account, hurts more than having an account of $5,000 or $10,000.

If would read all my post, at the end I state, I will be doing only one trade because, I want to do what I think Mark is doing. For a $2,000 account, 2% risk is $40 or 40 pips on a mini account. Everyone can make their own adjustments.

The whole point of my exercise was to show how important it is to do back testing on any EA you are serious about, with good data. Good data, that is very important!

For example, doing my own back testing, I verified that hammy66’s system is a successful system. Also, I discovered that the system I was using with the 5 trades was no good. I also discovered that there is another start time is better than than the start time of 6:30, sorry hammy66. This other start time showed a big difference during the Nov/Dec time frame. See the results below:


Here are the results for the new settings, for start times 6:15 & 6:30:

Here are the results of back testing the settings, SL=40, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 pips at 6:15 UK time.
For just one trade per day for Nov & Dec:
Test period from 11-08-2010 to 12-31-2010:
System: Total number of trades, Total pips at the end of the test period
Back Test: 26, +234.0 pips

Here are the results of back testing the settings, SL=40, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 pips at 6:30 UK time.
For just one trade per day for Nov & Dec:
Test period from 11-08-2010 to 12-31-2010:
System: Total number of trades, Total pips at the end of the test period
Back Test: 25, -35.0 pips

Here are the results of back testing the settings, SL=40, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 pips at 6:15 UK time.
For just one trade per day from when Mark started FMT:
Test period from 08-02-2010 to 12-31-2010:
System: Total number of trades, Total pips at the end of the test period
Back Test: 65, +580.9 pips

Here are the results of back testing the settings, SL=40, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 pips at 6:30 UK time.
For just one trade per day from when Mark started FMT:
Test period from 08-02-2010 to 12-31-2010:
System: Total number of trades, Total pips at the end of the test period
Back Test: 68, 449.6 pips




Here are the results for Mark's system, using standards settings for start times 6:15 & 6:30:

Here are the results of back testing the settings, SL=40, TP=35, BE=20, at 6:15 UK time.
For just one trade per day for Nov & Dec:
Test period from 11-08-2010 to 12-31-2010:
System: Total number of trades, Total pips at the end of the test period
Back Test: 26, +119.0 pips

Here are the results of back testing the settings, SL=40, TP=35, BE=20, at 6:30 UK time.
For just one trade per day for Nov & Dec:
Test period from 11-08-2010 to 12-31-2010:
System: Total number of trades, Total pips at the end of the test period
Back Test: 25, -30.7 pips

Here are the results of back testing the settings, SL=40, TP=35, BE=20, at 6:15 UK time.
For just one trade per day from when Mark started FMT:
Test period from 08-02-2010 to 12-31-2010:
System: Total number of trades, Total pips at the end of the test period
Back Test: 65, +495.1 pips

Here are the results of back testing the settings, SL=40, TP=35, BE=20, at 6:30 UK time.
For just one trade per day from when Mark started FMT:
Test period from 08-02-2010 to 12-31-2010:
System: Total number of trades, Total pips at the end of the test period
Back Test: 68, 526.0 pips




When back testing hammy66’s system, the best start time that got the most pips was the 6:15 start time. Remember these are just estimates, and I’m just making minor tweaks to Mark’s system, thanks to hammy66’s research. Also, longer term it may not really matter. This is a shorter term tweak that helps with the Nov/Dec period, but maybe its best not to trade during that time.

Thanks for your comment, helps me to put it all together better.

If anyone would like me to try out their settings on the data I have, just sent me a post with your settings, and I'll post you back with my results. If you have your own data, we can compare each others results.





I think you missed the quote I had. Here it is again, it’s very good! I was hoping it would encourage everyone.

Failing to accurately paper trade is a very common mistake. The trading system must be tested through various market conditions to ensure its future profitability and to gain the confidence of the trader. Although many traders do not paper trade their system, it rarely prevents them from proceeding.

Without reliable statistics about how the system performs, the trader does not know what to expect. After a string of a few losing trades, the trader will become disillusioned with the system. Most traders will stop trading the system and move on to the next “flavor of the month” trading system.

Although a trading system may be profitable in general, it is almost certain that, at some point, the system will sustain losses. This is a fact of life. . . Quoted from http://www.iexpertadvisor.com/ib38.asp







PS. Made some mistakes on my post #5659, page 708, here are the corrections:

Here are the results of back testing these new settings for Nov & Dec:
Test period from 11-08-2010 to 12-31-2010:
System: Total number of trades, Total pips at the end of the test period
Back Test: 26, +234.0 pips


Here are the results of back testing these new settings from Aug:
Test period from 08-02-2010 to 12-31-2010:
System: Total number of trades, Total pips at the end of the test period
Back Test: 65, +580.9 pips

 

[hammy66]

RedGuerrilla,

Very interesting post and backtest results !! thanks for your input !

Actually you give me more credit than I deserve for my "research". My research was only running these start times for 5 weeks in October/ November on DEMO with 2 different brokers. The 6:15 and 6:30 start times gave very near the same results and were the best, but the other 2 times were still productive enough to supplement FMT net profits, so I kept them running for my LIVE accounts strategy that I run now. My research did NOT include backtesting, I simply do not believe that backtesting is a good judge of how a EA will perform in live trading, there are too many variables, broker feed, spreads, slippage, etc., I know alot of you that love backtests will disagree, but this is my opinion for what it is worth ? So I find demo forward testing a better indication of an EA's potential and even then it is not perfect.
You are correct that the 6:15 and 6:30 start times are the best 2 but my live results show 6:30 slightly better than 6:15, then 6:00 is a little better than 6:45, I will drop any of the times if they fail to make a monthly profit but so far they are all doing well although January looks to be a challenge.

Anyway, RedGuerrilla, thanks for your very informative post !

cheers !