ForexMorningTrade System

[deserteagle]

What kind of win rate do you have with your settings to breakeven. Am I looking at it correctly that you need about a 60% win rate just to breakeven? What has been your trackrecord with these settings?

Here you have my records updated till today, I have traded FMT during 6 weeks, you can see the weeks number on the sheet.

Also I have added some charts for comparison against the standard set.

 

[PipZombie]

Here you have my records updated till today, I have traded FMT during 6 weeks, you can see the weeks number on the sheet.

Also I have added some charts for comparison against the standard set.

looks good, keep it above 60% and you will be profitable.

 

[deserteagle]

looks good, keep it above 60% and you will be profitable.

Thanks for your opinnion, that is the best set I have found in my backtest and optimization processes for period 01.01.2010 - 31.10.2010. At the end of January I will do it again to see if some parameter has to be changed.

 

[wiseambitions]

Thanks for your opinnion, that is the best set I have found in my backtest and optimization processes for period 01.01.2010 - 31.10.2010. At the end of January I will do it again to see if some parameter has to be changed.

Out of interest, do you have a fairly accurate estimation of the net pips gained in such period if you had been following these settings?

 

[Adamus]

I'm running TMT: SL=50, BE1=20, BE1+0, BE2=30, BE2+25, TP1=35, TP1%=75%, TP2=45

So I've been messaged by someone requesting the historical data from Dukascopy in MT4 format. Being a bit lazy if you ask me, but ask and you shall recieve Here it is. Also, here's a set file with my settings. I'm not sure how long I'll keep these here, so better grab them sooner rather than later.

Things to keep in mind when using Dukascopy data with MT4:

1. I'm using Windows 7, and to get this work I had to put these files here, not the typical place you put EA's.:
   

   C:\Users\[username]\AppData\Local\VirtualStore\Program Files (x86)\MetaTrader 4\experts\files

2. You must run the "birt's patch" script before you do any backtesting, otherwise this won't work and MT4 will overwrite the 99% modeling quality data with it's crappy data. You have to run this script every time you reopen your terminal. You can set the parameter with the "RealSpreads" to true.
3. If you're using the Dukascopy data with backtests, the backtests are ran on Dukascopy's time, which is GMT+0. In other words, make sure you start this thing at 5:30 on backtests if you're running FMT. I've had better results ranging from 5:15-5:45 with TMT.
4. I only know this stuff from reading this excellent tutorial, so if you're having issues please look over there first before asking me.
5. This data only goes back to 2009.01.01 because I wanted to keep the file size down and because I think backtesting any farther than that is useless because the market was so crazy in 2008.
6. The "Broker" folder in "history" needs to be the folder for your broker.

Good luck!

I'd also like to state that I am going live with these settings and that this is somewhat of an experiment. These settings have not been thoroughly forward tested by me, but based on previous years forward tests by other traders and my extensive backtests I am confident that this will work. That said, don't blame me if this blows your account.

Hi Bill

would you define what you mean by "quality" when talking about the Dukascopy data?

In my experience forex is a bit of a camel market and there's never any guarantee of anything, especially data quality. For me, 'quality' historical data is data that accurately reflects what my broker sends down the line live, i.e. that will give me backtesting results as close as possible to the P'n'L I would have got in live trading.

 

[ihelfman]

Thanks for your opinnion, that is the best set I have found in my backtest and optimization processes for period 01.01.2010 - 31.10.2010. At the end of January I will do it again to see if some parameter has to be changed.

A better trade setting for the holiday season (last two weeks of December to Martin Luther King Day) is to reverse FMT's 6:30 London time signal. Though I posted this strategy during the third week in December and have requested this feature from Mark, I did not trade it live; instead, dropped out of the market until January 18th. However, I hope to trade this strategy next year.

If I an get reliable data, I'd like to back trade to find other times to avoid the market or reverse the signals, such as holidays or particular cable news days. If anybody has analyzed these factors already, please post.

And more important, please encourage Mark to add a reverse-signal trade feature to Turbo.

 

[deserteagle]

Out of interest, do you have a fairly accurate estimation of the net pips gained in such period if you had been following these settings?

It is the result of that backtest:

Bars in test 14722
Ticks modelled 5753858
Modelling quality 90.00%
Mismatched charts errors 0
Initial deposit 10000.00
Total net profit 16075.00
Gross profit 22685.00
Gross loss -6610.00
Profit factor 3.43
Expected payoff 150.23
Absolute DrawDown 334.00
Maximal DrawDown 1869.00 (9.01%)
Relative DrawDown 11.06% (1229.00)
Total trades 107
Short positions (won %) 45 (75.56%)
Long positions (won %) 62 (67.74%)
Profit trades (% of total) 76 (71.03%)
Loss trades (% of total) 31 (28.97%)
Profit trade 443.00
Loss trade -660.00
Profit trade 298.49
Loss trade -213.23
Consecutive wins (profit in money) 16 (5229.00)
Consecutive losses (loss in money) 4 (-13.00)
Consecutive profit (count of wins) 5229.00 (16)
Consecutive loss (count of losses) -1307.00 (3)
Consecutive wins 4
Consecutive losses 2

I have to say maybe it is not accurate 100% because of the possible gaps in the Alpari data. But it is the best (high net profit and low DD) with that information.

Cheers

 

[chrisheath]

Just a quick note for inveterate 'tweakers' out there - possibly a way to increase gains easily.
No-one mentions spreads when showing back-testing. But I think its important.

Eg take 70 trades with a gain of 400 pips ( say with a spread of 2 pips)

with a spread of 1 pip - gain is 470 pips

with a spread of 3 pips - gain is 330 pips

from spread of 3 to spread of 1 gain is 140 pips - significant. Hence why the broker always wins!

Chris

 

[michaelhryu]

Thanks for your opinnion, that is the best set I have found in my backtest and optimization processes for period 01.01.2010 - 31.10.2010. At the end of January I will do it again to see if some parameter has to be changed.

Thank you very much for sharing your set! I am looking forward to your updates. Please keep up the good work!

Michael

 

[Jakof]

Dont you need quit a large capital for Dukascopy?

 

[deserteagle]

I'm running TMT: SL=50, BE1=20, BE1+0, BE2=30, BE2+25, TP1=35, TP1%=75%, TP2=45

So I've been messaged by someone requesting the historical data from Dukascopy in MT4 format. Being a bit lazy if you ask me, but ask and you shall recieve Here it is. Also, here's a set file with my settings. I'm not sure how long I'll keep these here, so better grab them sooner rather than later.

Things to keep in mind when using Dukascopy data with MT4:

1. I'm using Windows 7, and to get this work I had to put these files here, not the typical place you put EA's.:
   

   C:\Users\[username]\AppData\Local\VirtualStore\Program Files (x86)\MetaTrader 4\experts\files

2. You must run the "birt's patch" script before you do any backtesting, otherwise this won't work and MT4 will overwrite the 99% modeling quality data with it's crappy data. You have to run this script every time you reopen your terminal. You can set the parameter with the "RealSpreads" to true.
3. If you're using the Dukascopy data with backtests, the backtests are ran on Dukascopy's time, which is GMT+0. In other words, make sure you start this thing at 5:30 on backtests if you're running FMT. I've had better results ranging from 5:15-5:45 with TMT.
4. I only know this stuff from reading this excellent tutorial, so if you're having issues please look over there first before asking me.
5. This data only goes back to 2009.01.01 because I wanted to keep the file size down and because I think backtesting any farther than that is useless because the market was so crazy in 2008.
6. The "Broker" folder in "history" needs to be the folder for your broker.

Good luck!

I'd also like to state that I am going live with these settings and that this is somewhat of an experiment. These settings have not been thoroughly forward tested by me, but based on previous years forward tests by other traders and my extensive backtests I am confident that this will work. That said, don't blame me if this blows your account.

Hi Bill,

First thanks for posting this info. I would like to ask you about the spread configuration when converting from .CSV to .FXT. I have read it in the Birt's page, but it is not clear at all to me. I would appreaciate if you can explain it more in detail.

About parameter Spread says:
"By using the Spread parameter, you can configure the desired spread of the FXT file. If left at 0, it will use the current spread that your broker has. If set to anything other than zero, it will be used as the spread."

About parameter UseRealSpread says:
"You can choose to use the real (variable) spread by enabling UseRealSpread. Note that the FXT files created with this parameter enabled will only work properly when the patch for real spread is applied. If using real spread, you can pad it by a given number of pips – if you want to pad it by 0.8 pips, just type 0.8 for SpreadPadding.

- Which is the relation between these parameters?
- Considering you said we have to use UseRealSpread to true, how is determinated then the spread during the backtest? Is it taked from the parameter SpreadPadding?
- When using UseRealSpread, which is the value for parameter Spread?

Thanks a lot in advance for any help on this.

 

[RedGuerrilla]

Stats for 01-21-2010



'Live' Accounts:

FMT 4.2, Long/Loss, FXSolutions, dealing desk, 1.5925, 1.5879, -46.0 pips
My stats since 11-08-2010: 11 No Trades, 14 Break Evens, 17 Losses, 13 Profits, Total: -246.0 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP

01-21-2011, FMT 4.2, Long/Loss, IBFX, non-dealing desk, 1.59254, 1.58785, -46.9 pips
My stats since 01-04-2010: 4 No Trades, 3 Break Evens, 4 Loss, 2 Profits, Total: -100.4 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP



Demo Accounts:

FMT 4.2, 5: Long/Loss & 1: No Trade at non-dealing desk brokers:
PFG Best, 1.59244, 1.58819, -42.5
FOREX.com, 1.59251, 1.58765, -48.6
MB Trading, 0.0
FXCM, 1.59249, 1.58769, -48.0
Alpari(US), 1.59247, 1.59794, -40.2
FXDD, 1.59246, 1.58835, -41.1




Testing new tweaked settings, based on back testing. For more details, see Post #5659, page 708:
FMT 4.2 EA, GU M15 Chart, UK time zone.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: SL=40, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 pips,

6:15 start, buy trade, 1.59141, 1.59191, BE+5 pips ...
My stats since 01-20-2011: Total: +35.3 pips

 

[fx_]

Dont you need quit a large capital for Dukascopy?

you can start by $1000 , but you pay a little higher commission, If you has more money or trade more volume your commission will smaller , take a look at the website from dukas

cheers

 

[deserteagle]

Today, sell at 1,5967 Alpari UK, currently at BE.

 

[fx_]

Today, sell at 1,5967 Alpari UK, currently at BE.

yep, my EA also trigger short at broco mt4

 

[Jashfx]

Looked like was heading for a winner but stopped out at BE --- Alpari UK.

 

[Euro_d]

Looked like was heading for a winner but stopped out at BE --- Alpari UK.

Yep, same here. the strategy seems to be struggling these last weeks, Not convinced the competition is doing any better though!

Stick with it!

 

[wiseambitions]

28TP, had to wait nearly 3 hours for it. Why is 35 just proving so hard to get at the moment?

6 wins, 5 losses so far this year. But because my SL is greater than my TP I'm still in the red.

The original 40TP/40SL settings would have been worse in recent experience.

London Evening Standard newspaper. 18th Jan:
"Traders usually say there's too much volatility, or just not quite enough volatility for them".
==================================================================================
It's another day when those who reset to B/E got stopped out at 0 or any +pips they attach to their order.
Whereas those who stayed in eventually got TP.
These experiences seem to balance each other out at the moment, although noticeably the B/E reset does produce a smoother equity curve and this may be beneficial if you are compounding.

 

[hammy66]

FMT for me today:

6:00 start, sell trade, BE+5 pips
6:15 start, sell trade, BE+5 pips
6:30 start, sell trade, No Trade
6:45 start time has been discontinued for now due to poor results.

total today +10 pips..

good luck all ..

 

[RedGuerrilla]

Stats for 01-24-2010



'Live' Accounts:

FMT 4.2, Short/Break Even, FXSolutions, dealing desk, 1.5970, 1.5870, 0.0 pips
My stats since 11-08-2010: 11 No Trades, 15 Break Evens, 17 Losses, 13 Profits, Total: -246.0 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP

01-21-2011, FMT 4.2, Short/Break Even, IBFX, non-dealing desk, 1.59682, 1.58684, -0.2 pips
My stats since 01-04-2010: 4 No Trades, 4 Break Evens, 4 Loss, 2 Profits, Total: -100.6 pips


Demo Accounts:

FMT 4.2, 3:Short/Break Even & 2:No Trade at non-dealing desk brokers:
PFG Best, 0.0
FOREX.com, 0.0
FXCM, 1.59703, 1.59703, 0.0
Alpari(US), 1.59711, 1.59711, 0.0
FXDD, 1.59698, 1.59698, 0.0

Decided to drop MB Trading, too many issues, mini lot is 1.0 instead of 0.1, missing data, not recommended.




Testing new tweaked settings, based on back testing. For more details, see Post #5659, page 708:
FMT 4.2 EA, GU M15 Chart, UK time zone.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: SL=40, TP=30, BE=20, BE+5 pips,

6:15 start, sell trade, 1.59744, 1.59440, hit TP= +30.4 pips ...
My stats since 01-20-2011: Total: +65.7 pips




2nd day these new settings do better than the standard settings.



By the way hammy66, I give you a lot of credit. If you hadn't been posting your results, I wouldn't have been researching better settings.