Wiseambitions - nice post. I would only caution against those losing streaks that inevitably happen with all systems. Without a risk to reward approaching 1:1, you may find your account being wiped out fairly quickly if FMT runs into a period of several consecutive losses. Best of luck.
wiseambitions
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Wiseambitions - nice post. I would only caution against those losing streaks that inevitably happen with all systems. Without a risk to reward approaching 1:1, you may find your account being wiped out fairly quickly if FMT runs into a period of several consecutive losses. Best of luck.
Thanks for your input on this. Yes all of this is why I advocate a system of careful record keeping, so that alerts are given if the % of winning trades falls below average.
Let's all hope the system carries on enjoying many months of continued success, and we'll have a meeting of FMT millionaires at a date and place to be arranged!
hey, I like your way of thinking..
, start picking out a place, sunny, warm, and good food .... I agree that FMT doesn't really lend itself to "losing streaks" but I'm sure if it hit say 4 losses in a row a red flag would go up far before it "wipes out" an account. In fact starting mid January, I'm thinking of doubling my lots, so 4% to 8% risk, OR maybe I will trade FMT on 2 separate GU charts, one starting at 6:30, one at 6:00 like Turbo, both with 4 to 5% risk ? What do you think ?wiseambitions
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hey, I like your way of thinking..
If we knew the successful run of FMT over the last 6 months was going to be repeated I wouldn't see 5 per cent risk as an upper limit, nor 8 per cent even but it is the big unknown as to whether market conditions will continue to favour, therefore some caution has to be retained. I like the idea of splitting the entry times, there are also other ways of trying to catch the market on a short term turn (Parabolic SAR, stochastics, MACD etc on 1 2 or 5 minute charts) but there is no need to try and complicate it.
FMT is a mechanical systsem and as boring as it sounds we have to do the same thing every day at the same time and for the same reasons, both with regard to entry and to exit, then in the long run we should come out enriched.
hey, I like your way of thinking..
Just a note about probabilities. If you have a system with a 70% win rate you have a 1% chance of 8 losing trades in a row. So 8% risk could mean a 64% draw down at some point. FYI.
wiseambitions
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Thanks, If I knew and practised what I now know from even just 12 months ago I think I would have already been able to quit my day job! My buddy and I are both talking about the Last Day of The Rat Race
You have to begin with the end in mind! (S Covey - The 7 habits of highly effective people).
mudder1310
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hi mudder ! thx for posting..
I wish I could trade this system manually but unfortunately it's 1:30 am. where I live when it's time to pull the trigger. Do you trade EurUsd at same start time, 6:30 London time ?
Hope to see more posts from you , welcome !..
I do trade them at the same time. I'm doing some off time testing with USDCHF as well, but the results are mixed. I know some are trading eurusd at the NY start time, but I've tried to just keep it simple for now.
I'm testing the basic EA as well with similar results, but I don't use the BE. Mostly it's just to test the reliability and consistency of the EA itself before I let it run on it's own. London trade time is 22:30 for me, so not too late.
A friend of mine is trading FMT at 15% risk and made over 400% in the last 2 months! But I guess this is too high for my weak heart! According to my backtests you can expect 4 consecutive losses, but what if conditions changes and we get more than 4? Regarding a 25 pip TP, now you are changing the risk/reward, I am not sure if that is a good thing, I will backtest it and see what I get.
The Turbo version is much better than the original, it eliminates a lot of losses!
The Turbo version is much better than the original, it eliminates a lot of losses!
wiseambitions
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A friend of mine is trading FMT at 15% risk and made over 400% in the last 2 months! But I guess this is too high for my weak heart! According to my backtests you can expect 4 consecutive losses, but what if conditions changes and we get more than 4? Regarding a 25 pip TP, now you are changing the risk/reward, I am not sure if that is a good thing, I will backtest it and see what I get.
The Turbo version is much better than the original, it eliminates a lot of losses!
His result is very possible, due to his leverage, but forex luck and success is all about probability and it might not always work in his favour. Massive drawdowns could soon make him less prosperous than a member restricting himself to 5% risk per trade.
If we were to say basic FMT gives wins 70% of the time (In practise it's a bit better than that), and that there are 200 days a year with signals then there's a likelihood of 2 consecutive losses about 20 times in a year, 3 consecutive losses about 6 times and 4 consecutive losses about twice.
If, either by filtering out more bad trades before you even start, or adjusting SL or TP you get to an 80% success rate, then the likelihood of 2 consecutive losses drops to about 8 in a year, and 3 consecutive losses to about twice, and 4 consecutive losses would be remotely likely to even happen.
The big BUT is that the unthinkable can still occur. And that is when disaster strikes and the account vanishes into oblivion. The odds are stacked against you in this 'zero sum game' and the only certain winner is the broker, every time.
Unfortunately the only sympathy to people who take risks which are too big is "Serves you right, I told you so"
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Hi,
I would like to share with you my demo account statement for the November. Please look at the trades from first of nov until 03 of dec.
I trade GBPUSD according to the manual and EURUSD by the following setting:
Trading at 23:30 as per FXDD's timing.
SL 40, TP 25, BE 15.
and good luck to all of us.
I would like to share with you my demo account statement for the November. Please look at the trades from first of nov until 03 of dec.
I trade GBPUSD according to the manual and EURUSD by the following setting:
Trading at 23:30 as per FXDD's timing.
SL 40, TP 25, BE 15.
and good luck to all of us.
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i'm waiting for that pair to trend soon, it's been stuck in the 1--1 range forever
wiseambitions
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looks like a long again this morning, but there was a time an hour or so ago when it was pointing down, the indicators are back in harmony again. Good luck to all
Bobcat1354
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This is very perplexing. InterBank and AlpariUK both signalled a long trade and FXDD signalled no trade. I guess the ayes have it?
Anyone else undecided?
Anyone else undecided?
This is very perplexing. InterBank and AlpariUK both signalled a long trade and FXDD signalled no trade. I guess the ayes have it?
Anyone else undecided?
just slight difference in data from brokers and we are soooooo close on the signal for a buy and a no trade. I guess it is a coin toss.
