Forex618 Daily Currency report

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Thursday July 20 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 17 08:30 NY Empire State Index Jul 20.0 21.8 29.0
Jul 17 09:15 Capacity Utilization Jun 82.0% 81.9% 81.7%
Jul 17 09:15 Industrial Production Jun 0.5% 0.4% -0.1%
Jul 18 08:30 Core PPI Jun 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
Jul 18 08:30 PPI Jun 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Jul 18 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases May NA NA $46.7B
Jul 19 08:30 Building Permits Jun 1930K 1920K 1946K
Jul 19 08:30 Core CPI Jun 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
Jul 19 08:30 CPI Jun 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
Jul 19 08:30 Housing Starts Jun 1920K 1915K 1957K
Jul 19 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/14 NA NA -5985K
Jul 20 08:30 Initial Claims 07/15 320K NA 332K
Jul 20 10:00 Leading Indicators Jun 0.2% 0.1% -0.6%
Jul 20 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Jul 13.0 12.5 13.1
Jul 20 14:00 FOMC Minutes Jun 29

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V2 Model medium term directional summary

This table shows the medium term direction of each currency pair and the reversal level, where we will adjust our medium term view and consider the trend to have changed.

Currency pair Current direction Reversal level
EUR/USD LONG 1.2470
GBP/USD LONG 1.8315
USD Index SHORT 87.50

EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: The euro rushed up from support at 1.2470 to 1.2620 rather dramatically yesterday, reversing most of this week's losses and turning momentum bullish again. Today we must allow for some hesitation at resistance between 1.2620 and 1.2700, especially as we wait for the FOMC announcement and minutes much later in the day. If we can hold above 1.2550/20, then we should have a good chance of going higher and closing with a strong end to the week, possibly around 1.2700 or even 1.2800. There is always a chance that this rally was only a short squeeze, so until we have a strong weekly close, continue to trade with some degree of caution if buying dips.

Trend Phase: Direction UP. Probability GOOD


Trend Reversal Level: 1.2470

Strategy today: Possibly try tiny shorts on signs of topping between 1.2620 and 1.2700, buying again closer to 1.2550 for 1.2700.

Chart: Bouncing dramatically off support at 1.2470 and trying to form a "spike low" on weekly charts.

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Monday July 24 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 25 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jul 106.5 104.8 105.7
Jul 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jun 6.70M 6.60M 6.67M
Jul 26 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/21 NA NA 151K
Jul 26 14:00 Fed's Beige Book
Jul 27 08:30 Durable Orders Jun 5.5% 1.7% -0.2%
Jul 27 08:30 Initial Claims 07/22 315K NA 304K
Jul 27 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Jun 34 33 33
Jul 27 10:00 New Home Sales Jun 1165K 1175K 1234K
Jul 28 08:30 Chain Deflator-Adv. Q2 3.8% 3.7% 3.1%
Jul 28 08:30 Employment Cost Index Q2 0.8% NA 0.6%
Jul 28 08:30 GDP-Adv. Q2 3.0% 3.1% 5.6%
Jul 28 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Jul 83.0 83.0 83.0

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: A strong closer to last week formed a "spike low" on weekly charts, with price action having all of the earlier losses and some. This is seen as a bullish reversal in what could be a range trading scenario for another few weeks. Generally, dips are seen as buying opportunities whilst the euro is above 1.2450, with the price probably trying to hold above 1.2600 today. Below 1.2600 should see more support at 1.2550/1.2520. At some stage, although probably not this month, we should get a rally back to 1.2900 - 1.3000, with a break above some time next month.

Trend Phase: Direction UP. Probability GOOD


Trend Reversal Level: 1.2470

Strategy today: Buy dips on signs of basing at 1.2620, stops under 1.2600, or at 1.2550, stops below 1.2500. Target 1.2800.

Chart: A weekly spike low from support should encourage dip-buying.

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Tuesday July 24 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 25 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jul 106.5 104.8 105.7
Jul 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jun 6.70M 6.60M 6.67M
Jul 26 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/21 NA NA 151K
Jul 26 14:00 Fed's Beige Book
Jul 27 08:30 Durable Orders Jun 5.5% 1.7% -0.2%
Jul 27 08:30 Initial Claims 07/22 315K NA 304K
Jul 27 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Jun 34 33 33
Jul 27 10:00 New Home Sales Jun 1165K 1175K 1234K
Jul 28 08:30 Chain Deflator-Adv. Q2 3.8% 3.7% 3.1%
Jul 28 08:30 Employment Cost Index Q2 0.8% NA 0.6%
Jul 28 08:30 GDP-Adv. Q2 3.0% 3.1% 5.6%
Jul 28 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Jul 83.0 83.0 83.0

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: The euro corrected to 1.2600 as expected and is trying to base above the Fibonacci retracement level and previous resistance. We should try to hold above here again today, but we cannot rule out a small chance of a brief visit lower to 1.2550 (1.2520 MAX). A break above 1.2710 today would increase bullish momentum and confirm the weekly reversal candle last week. At some stage, although probably not this month, we should get a rally back to 1.2900 - 1.3000, with a break above some time next month.

Trend Phase: Direction UP. Probability GOOD


Trend Reversal Level: 1.2470

Strategy today: No change. Buy dips on signs of basing at 1.2620, stops under 1.2600, or at 1.2550, stops below 1.2500. Target 1.2800.

Chart: Taking its time attempting to base above 1.2600.

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Thursday July 27 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 25 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jul 106.5 104.8 105.7
Jul 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jun 6.70M 6.60M 6.67M
Jul 26 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/21 NA NA 151K
Jul 26 14:00 Fed's Beige Book
Jul 27 08:30 Durable Orders Jun 5.5% 1.7% -0.2%
Jul 27 08:30 Initial Claims 07/22 315K NA 304K
Jul 27 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Jun 34 33 33
Jul 27 10:00 New Home Sales Jun 1165K 1175K 1234K
Jul 28 08:30 Chain Deflator-Adv. Q2 3.8% 3.7% 3.1%
Jul 28 08:30 Employment Cost Index Q2 0.8% NA 0.6%
Jul 28 08:30 GDP-Adv. Q2 3.0% 3.1% 5.6%
Jul 28 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Jul 83.0 83.0 83.0

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: Bouncing from 1.2560 as expected, the euro has rushed up to 1.2710, the previous weekly high, and just managed to close above there for several hours in a row during Asian trading. If we can hold above here today and squeeze up for another leg higher, the euro should be able to trade up to 1.2780 and perhaps even 1.2850 by the end of the week. Remember that we are still in a sort of "holding pattern" between 1.3000 and 1.2500 and we could remain here for another couple of months still. Generally, dip buying is preferred whilst above 1.2500, with targets of 1.3000 and higher later in the year. Below 1.2470, will probably see the euro drop to 1.2300/2250 before forming a new medium term base.

Trend Phase: Direction UP. Probability GOOD


Trend Reversal Level: 1.2470

Strategy today: Buy dips to 1.2660, stops below 1.2630.

Chart: Moving towards the top of the channel (flag?)

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Friday July 28 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 25 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jul 106.5 104.8 105.7
Jul 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jun 6.70M 6.60M 6.67M
Jul 26 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/21 NA NA 151K
Jul 26 14:00 Fed's Beige Book
Jul 27 08:30 Durable Orders Jun 5.5% 1.7% -0.2%
Jul 27 08:30 Initial Claims 07/22 315K NA 304K
Jul 27 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Jun 34 33 33
Jul 27 10:00 New Home Sales Jun 1165K 1175K 1234K
Jul 28 08:30 Chain Deflator-Adv. Q2 3.8% 3.7% 3.1%
Jul 28 08:30 Employment Cost Index Q2 0.8% NA 0.6%
Jul 28 08:30 GDP-Adv. Q2 3.0% 3.1% 5.6%
Jul 28 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Jul 83.0 83.0 83.0

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: Moving cautiously up to 1.2770 before retreating (this is the 78.6% retracement of the drop over the past two weeks). If we can hold above 1.2550 today and squeeze up for another leg higher, the euro should be able to trade up to 1.2780 again, and perhaps even 1.2850 by the end of the day. Remember that we are still in a sort of "holding pattern" between 1.3000 and 1.2500 and we could remain here for another couple of months still. Generally, dip buying is preferred whilst above 1.2500, with targets of 1.3000 and higher later in the year. Below 1.2470, will probably see the euro drop to 1.2300/2250 before forming a new medium term base.

Trend Phase: Direction UP. Probability GOOD


Trend Reversal Level: 1.2470

Strategy today: Buy dips to 1.2660/1.2600, stops below 1.2550.

Chart: Retreating from the 78.6% Fibonacci level, and may consolidate for the rest of the day.

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Monday July 31 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 31 10:00 Chicago PMI Jul 56.0 56.0 56.5
Aug 01 00:00 Auto Sales Jul 5.5M 5.5M 5.3M
Aug 01 00:00 Truck Sales Jul 7.7M 7.5M 7.2M
Aug 01 08:30 Personal Income Jun 0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Aug 01 08:30 Personal Spending Jun 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Aug 01 10:00 Construction Spending Jun 0.2% 0.3% -0.4%
Aug 01 10:00 ISM Index Jul 54.0 53.5 53.8
Aug 02 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/28 NA NA NA
Aug 03 08:30 Initial Claims 07/29 310K NA 298K
Aug 03 10:00 Factory Orders Jun 1.6% 1.1% 0.7%
Aug 03 10:00 ISM Services Jul 58.0 56.5 57.0
Aug 04 08:30 Average Workweek Jul 33.9 33.9 33.9
Aug 04 08:30 Hourly Earnings Jul 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
Aug 04 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jul 135K 145K 121K
Aug 04 08:30 Unemployment Rate Jul 4.6% 4.6% 4.6%

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: It was significant that last week we managed to hold above 1.2600 and make a new weekly high - this adding bullish momentum to the euro and placing pressure on the upside. However, we must remember that we have been in a largely sideways market since May this year, with the range roughly between 1.2500 and 1.3000. Until we close outside this range on a weekly basis, we shall have to allow for much more work inside this range, making picking levels difficult in choppy thin conditions. This week, hopefully we will hold above 1.2600 once again, with rallies probably taking the euro back towards 1.2950/1.3000 and decision time again. Today will probably see a rally to just under 1.2900 before more consolidation.

Strategy today: Buy dips to 1.2660/1.2600, stops below 1.2550. Perhaps try tiny shorts on a rally to 1.2880, stops above 1.2920.

Chart: Another bullish week, closing at a "higher high and higher low" which will hopefully allow the euro to push to 1.2900 and maybe higher.

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Tuesday August 1 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 31 10:00 Chicago PMI Jul 56.0 56.0 56.5
Aug 01 00:00 Auto Sales Jul 5.5M 5.5M 5.3M
Aug 01 00:00 Truck Sales Jul 7.7M 7.5M 7.2M
Aug 01 08:30 Personal Income Jun 0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Aug 01 08:30 Personal Spending Jun 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Aug 01 10:00 Construction Spending Jun 0.2% 0.3% -0.4%
Aug 01 10:00 ISM Index Jul 54.0 53.5 53.8
Aug 02 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/28 NA NA NA
Aug 03 08:30 Initial Claims 07/29 310K NA 298K
Aug 03 10:00 Factory Orders Jun 1.6% 1.1% 0.7%
Aug 03 10:00 ISM Services Jul 58.0 56.5 57.0
Aug 04 08:30 Average Workweek Jul 33.9 33.9 33.9
Aug 04 08:30 Hourly Earnings Jul 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
Aug 04 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jul 135K 145K 121K
Aug 04 08:30 Unemployment Rate Jul 4.6% 4.6% 4.6%

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: One of the tiniest daily ranges on record yesterday (43 pips) means that the euro is likely to be a little more volatile today. As we have already corrected 78.6% of the last decline, we shall have to allow for either a push higher to 1.2850 or a corrective decline towards 1.2650. We must remember that we have been in a largely sideways market since May this year, with the range roughly between 1.2500 and 1.3000. Until we close outside this range on a weekly basis, we shall have to allow for much more work inside this range, making picking levels difficult in choppy thin conditions. This week, hopefully we will hold above 1.2600 once again, with rallies probably taking the euro back towards 1.2950/1.3000 and decision time again.

Strategy today: Unchanged. Buy dips to 1.2660/1.2600, stops below 1.2550. Perhaps try tiny shorts on a rally to 1.2880, stops above 1.2920.

Chart: Particularly boring yesterday, as the euro barely moved and we remain in a sideways market on many time frames.

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Wednesday August 2 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 31 10:00 Chicago PMI Jul 56.0 56.0 56.5
Aug 01 00:00 Auto Sales Jul 5.5M 5.5M 5.3M
Aug 01 00:00 Truck Sales Jul 7.7M 7.5M 7.2M
Aug 01 08:30 Personal Income Jun 0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Aug 01 08:30 Personal Spending Jun 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Aug 01 10:00 Construction Spending Jun 0.2% 0.3% -0.4%
Aug 01 10:00 ISM Index Jul 54.0 53.5 53.8
Aug 02 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/28 NA NA NA
Aug 03 08:30 Initial Claims 07/29 310K NA 298K
Aug 03 10:00 Factory Orders Jun 1.6% 1.1% 0.7%
Aug 03 10:00 ISM Services Jul 58.0 56.5 57.0
Aug 04 08:30 Average Workweek Jul 33.9 33.9 33.9
Aug 04 08:30 Hourly Earnings Jul 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
Aug 04 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jul 135K 145K 121K
Aug 04 08:30 Unemployment Rate Jul 4.6% 4.6% 4.6%

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: A little more action yesterday as the euro pushed out of the tiny daily range and up towards 1.2850 as expected. As 1.2850 is the top of the bigger 2 month range, we shall have to allow for a rejection from here, with many stops probably situated just above. We must remember that we have been in a largely sideways market since May this year, with the range roughly between 1.2500 and 1.3000. Until we close outside this range on a weekly basis, we shall have to allow for much more work inside this range, making picking levels difficult in choppy thin conditions. Dips should still be limited to 1.2700/1.2650, and until we break above 1.2850, try small shorts near there, re-buying on dips again later. A break above 1.2880 will see the euro back at 1.2950 in very short order, so keep stops disciplined.

Strategy today: Play the range - Sell rallies to 1.2830, stops above 1.2880. Buy on dips to 1.2700/1.2650.

Chart: We have rallied to the range top and we might well see a slump back towards the centre again, as the euro may not be quite ready to take on this new challenge.

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Thursday August 3 2006

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 31 10:00 Chicago PMI Jul 56.0 56.0 56.5
Aug 01 00:00 Auto Sales Jul 5.5M 5.5M 5.3M
Aug 01 00:00 Truck Sales Jul 7.7M 7.5M 7.2M
Aug 01 08:30 Personal Income Jun 0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Aug 01 08:30 Personal Spending Jun 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Aug 01 10:00 Construction Spending Jun 0.2% 0.3% -0.4%
Aug 01 10:00 ISM Index Jul 54.0 53.5 53.8
Aug 02 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/28 NA NA NA
Aug 03 08:30 Initial Claims 07/29 310K NA 298K
Aug 03 10:00 Factory Orders Jun 1.6% 1.1% 0.7%
Aug 03 10:00 ISM Services Jul 58.0 56.5 57.0
Aug 04 08:30 Average Workweek Jul 33.9 33.9 33.9
Aug 04 08:30 Hourly Earnings Jul 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
Aug 04 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jul 135K 145K 121K
Aug 04 08:30 Unemployment Rate Jul 4.6% 4.6% 4.6%

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: Not a lot of change as the euro crawls across the page like a drunken sailor. The only interesting occurence, perhaps, was the break of the short term hourly uptrend line last night, which means we must now allow for a test of the next trend line and interim support level at 1.2700, and perhaps a little lower for good measure. We must remember that we have been in a largely sideways market since May this year, with the range roughly between 1.2500 and 1.3000. Until we close outside this range on a weekly basis, we shall have to allow for much more work inside this range, making picking levels difficult in choppy thin conditions. Dips should still be limited to 1.2700/1.2650, and until we break above 1.2850, try small shorts near there, re-buying on dips again later. A break above 1.2880 will see the euro back at 1.2950 in very short order, so keep stops disciplined.

Strategy today: Buy dips to 1.2700 - 1.2650 on signs of basing, stops below 1.2640

Chart: Breaking below the first ST trend line, and might test the lower one, perhaps even just below it to clear out a few hands.

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Friday August 4 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 31 10:00 Chicago PMI Jul 56.0 56.0 56.5
Aug 01 00:00 Auto Sales Jul 5.5M 5.5M 5.3M
Aug 01 00:00 Truck Sales Jul 7.7M 7.5M 7.2M
Aug 01 08:30 Personal Income Jun 0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Aug 01 08:30 Personal Spending Jun 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Aug 01 10:00 Construction Spending Jun 0.2% 0.3% -0.4%
Aug 01 10:00 ISM Index Jul 54.0 53.5 53.8
Aug 02 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/28 NA NA NA
Aug 03 08:30 Initial Claims 07/29 310K NA 298K
Aug 03 10:00 Factory Orders Jun 1.6% 1.1% 0.7%
Aug 03 10:00 ISM Services Jul 58.0 56.5 57.0
Aug 04 08:30 Average Workweek Jul 33.9 33.9 33.9
Aug 04 08:30 Hourly Earnings Jul 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
Aug 04 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jul 135K 145K 121K
Aug 04 08:30 Unemployment Rate Jul 4.6% 4.6% 4.6%

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: There really is very little to add to this week's movement. A brief rally yesterday saw the euro touch the top of the 1.2750 - 1.2850 range, but without any follow-through higher. With the Non-Farm Payrolls report later today, we should expect more of the same sideways crawl, with subsequent breakout dependant on the jobs data, which we are reluctant to call. So, same old, same old...We must remember that we have been in a largely sideways market since May this year, with the range roughly between 1.2500 and 1.3000. Until we close outside this range on a weekly basis, we shall have to allow for much more work inside this range, making picking levels difficult in choppy thin conditions. Dips should still be limited to 1.2700/1.2650, and until we break above 1.2850, try small shorts near there, re-buying on dips again later. A break above 1.2880 will see the euro back at 1.2950 in very short order, so keep stops disciplined.

Strategy today: Buy dips to 1.2700 - 1.2650 on signs of basing, stops below 1.2640

Chart: Dips should hold above roughly 1.2700/1.2650, but the market is likely to go sideways most of the day until the NFP

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Monday August 7 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Aug 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Jun $4.0B $4.0B $4.4B
Aug 08 08:30 Productivity-Prel Q2 0.9% 1.1% 3.7%
Aug 08 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Aug 09 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Jun 0.6% 0.6% 0.8%
Aug 09 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/04 NA NA -1774K
Aug 10 08:30 Initial Claims 08/05 310K NA 315K
Aug 10 08:30 Trade Balance Jun -$64.8B -$64.5B -$63.8B
Aug 10 14:00 Treasury Budget Jul -$44.0B -$47.8B -$53.4B
Aug 11 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jul NA NA 0.6%
Aug 11 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jul NA NA 0.4%
Aug 11 08:30 Retail Sales Jul 0.9% 0.6% -0.1%
Aug 11 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jul 0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Aug 11 10:00 Business Inventories Jun 0.6% 0.5% 0.8%

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: More steady gains as the euro breaks to a new recent weekly high and gains 200 pips in the course of the last week. As we are not particularly overbought and as bullish momentum has plenty of room to increase, we expect that the euro will try to reach for 1.3000 this week, with a possible break above there causing a few second thoughts about the long term picture for the euro and the dollar. Continue to buy dips, with the price probably holding above 1.2700/2750 this week.

Strategy today: Buy dips to 1.2820, adding to 1.2750, stops below 1.2700, target 1.3000.

Chart: Steady Eddy as we continue to rise in manageable chunks

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Tuesday August 8 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Aug 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Jun $4.0B $4.0B $4.4B
Aug 08 08:30 Productivity-Prel Q2 0.9% 1.1% 3.7%
Aug 08 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Aug 09 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Jun 0.6% 0.6% 0.8%
Aug 09 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/04 NA NA -1774K
Aug 10 08:30 Initial Claims 08/05 310K NA 315K
Aug 10 08:30 Trade Balance Jun -$64.8B -$64.5B -$63.8B
Aug 10 14:00 Treasury Budget Jul -$44.0B -$47.8B -$53.4B
Aug 11 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jul NA NA 0.6%
Aug 11 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jul NA NA 0.4%
Aug 11 08:30 Retail Sales Jul 0.9% 0.6% -0.1%
Aug 11 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jul 0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Aug 11 10:00 Business Inventories Jun 0.6% 0.5% 0.8%

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: Dropping back slightly to 1.2800 and ST trend line support, but nothing to be too concerned about. As we are not particularly overbought and as bullish momentum has plenty of room to increase, we expect that the euro will try to reach for 1.3000 this week, with a possible break above there causing a few second thoughts about the long term picture for the euro and the dollar. Continue to buy dips, with the price probably holding above 1.2700/2750 this week.

Strategy today: No change. Buy dips to 1.2820, adding to 1.2750, stops below 1.2700, target 1.3000.

Chart: Just drifting about a little as we wait for the FOMC and a possible pause in rates rises.

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net daily currency report

GBP/USD

Medium Term Trend: Yesterday's move has created a "shooting star" candle formation just above 1.9100, suggesting that we will consolidate, and possibly even correct significantly, below here for another week or two. Rallies will probably now be contained below 1.9060, and we should see a move down to 1.8900, and possibly as low as 1.8700 over the next day or two. Watch for signs of basing at those levels, where good medium/long term chances to buy sterling might be found. For today, don't rush into buying, rather waiting for further dips, or perhaps selling on rallies.

Strategy today: Watch for signs of basing between 1.8900 and 1.8700 before buying.

Chart: Yesterday's shooting star candle means more correction is likely.




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USD/JPY

Medium Term Trend: Inability to maintain downward momentum and the price action in the other majors, especially the pound, suggests that the dollar will hold its ground and possibly strengthen for another few days before resuming the downtrend. Allow for the price to rally as high as 116.60 before selling into the potential "head and shoulders" right shoulder line. We should eventually get a break below 114.00 which will lead to another test of 113.50. But first we need to watch for clear signs of topping!

Strategy today: Sell rallies to 116.50, stops above 117.00, target 114.00 and then 113.50

Chart: We will probably try to rally to complete the "right shoulder"

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Thursday August 10 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Aug 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Jun $4.0B $4.0B $4.4B
Aug 08 08:30 Productivity-Prel Q2 0.9% 1.1% 3.7%
Aug 08 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Aug 09 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Jun 0.6% 0.6% 0.8%
Aug 09 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/04 NA NA -1774K
Aug 10 08:30 Initial Claims 08/05 310K NA 315K
Aug 10 08:30 Trade Balance Jun -$64.8B -$64.5B -$63.8B
Aug 10 14:00 Treasury Budget Jul -$44.0B -$47.8B -$53.4B
Aug 11 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jul NA NA 0.6%
Aug 11 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jul NA NA 0.4%
Aug 11 08:30 Retail Sales Jul 0.9% 0.6% -0.1%
Aug 11 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jul 0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Aug 11 10:00 Business Inventories Jun 0.6% 0.5% 0.8%

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: Dipping to 1.2750 as expected, but giving traders very little chance to take advantage of the dips, the price rallied almost vertically from there back to the 1.2900 level in rather volatile intraday price action. Many have built their premise of a weaker dollar on the basis of the "twin deficits" so today's news should be of interest to the euro and we might see some more of the same volatile intraday movement. After all is said and done, we have merely gone sideways this week and we see this as a consolidation before another move higher. We should try to stay above 1.2750, with a break above 1.2900 propelling us higher to 1.3000. Only below 1.2750 would we have to reconsider and allow for more correction to as low as 1.2700/1.2650

Strategy today: No change: Buy dips (only on signs of basing) to to 1.2750, stops below 1.2650, target 1.3000.

Chart: Neatly consolidating outside the large "flag"

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Monday August 14 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Aug 15 08:30 Core PPI Jul 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Aug 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Aug 17.0 15.0 15.6
Aug 15 08:30 PPI Jul 0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
Aug 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Jun NA NA $69.6B
Aug 16 08:30 Building Permits Jul 1825K 1845K 1869K
Aug 16 08:30 Core CPI Jul 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Aug 16 08:30 CPI Jul 0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Aug 16 08:30 Housing Starts Jul 1800K 1810K 1850K
Aug 16 09:15 Capacity Utilization Jul 82.7% 82.6% 82.4%
Aug 16 09:15 Industrial Production Jul 0.6% 0.5% 0.8%
Aug 16 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/11 NA NA -1114K
Aug 17 08:30 Initial Claims 08/12 315K NA 319K
Aug 17 10:00 Leading Indicators Jul 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Aug 17 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Aug 10.0 8.0 6.0
Aug 18 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Aug 82.5 84.0 84.7

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: Drifting lower without a great deal of momentum and without triggering too many stops, the euro has reached a low of around 1.2700. We continue to feel that we will try to base between 1.2680 and 1.2650 this week, and all dips to these levels are seen as good opportunities to buy euros for a rally back to 1.2900, and eventually to 1.3000 and above. Although unlikely, we shall have to allow for dips to drop as low as 1.2550, with anything below that forcing us to review the medium term direction.

Strategy today: No change: Buy dips (only on signs of basing) between 1.2750 and 1.2650, stops below 1.2630, target 1.3000.

Chart: Still trying to hold onto first support around 1.2730.

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Tuesday August 15 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Aug 15 08:30 Core PPI Jul 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Aug 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Aug 17.0 15.0 15.6
Aug 15 08:30 PPI Jul 0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
Aug 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Jun NA NA $69.6B
Aug 16 08:30 Building Permits Jul 1825K 1845K 1869K
Aug 16 08:30 Core CPI Jul 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Aug 16 08:30 CPI Jul 0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Aug 16 08:30 Housing Starts Jul 1800K 1810K 1850K
Aug 16 09:15 Capacity Utilization Jul 82.7% 82.6% 82.4%
Aug 16 09:15 Industrial Production Jul 0.6% 0.5% 0.8%
Aug 16 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/11 NA NA -1114K
Aug 17 08:30 Initial Claims 08/12 315K NA 319K
Aug 17 10:00 Leading Indicators Jul 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Aug 17 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Aug 10.0 8.0 6.0
Aug 18 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Aug 82.5 84.0 84.7

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: Scraping along the 1.2700 level, with a few "spikes" below here to 1.2690, the euro appears to be holding at support. We continue to feel that we will try to base between 1.2680 and 1.2650 this week, and all dips to these levels are seen as good opportunities to buy euros for a rally back to 1.2900, and eventually to 1.3000 and above. Although unlikely, we shall have to allow for dips to drop as low as 1.2550, with anything below that forcing us to review the medium term direction.

Strategy today: Buy at 1.2725, stops below 1.2690, target 1.3000.

Chart: Several "false break spikes" below 1.2700 as the euro tries to form a base at this level.

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Wednesday August 16 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Aug 15 08:30 Core PPI Jul 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Aug 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Aug 17.0 15.0 15.6
Aug 15 08:30 PPI Jul 0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
Aug 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Jun NA NA $69.6B
Aug 16 08:30 Building Permits Jul 1825K 1845K 1869K
Aug 16 08:30 Core CPI Jul 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Aug 16 08:30 CPI Jul 0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Aug 16 08:30 Housing Starts Jul 1800K 1810K 1850K
Aug 16 09:15 Capacity Utilization Jul 82.7% 82.6% 82.4%
Aug 16 09:15 Industrial Production Jul 0.6% 0.5% 0.8%
Aug 16 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/11 NA NA -1114K
Aug 17 08:30 Initial Claims 08/12 315K NA 319K
Aug 17 10:00 Leading Indicators Jul 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Aug 17 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Aug 10.0 8.0 6.0
Aug 18 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Aug 82.5 84.0 84.7

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: The euro has managed to bounce from 1.2700, forming a bullish daily candle in the process and possibly confirming that an interim base has been formed. If we get a strong follow through today, taking the euro up to somewhere around 1.2850/1.2900, this should set the tone for further gains above 1.2900 next week. Allow for some retracement and perhaps a lengthy period of consolidation early today, as there is a raft of data due out in the NY session, all of which will have an impact on dollar sentiment. Generally, as long as we can hold above 1.2700, the euro should now remain bullish for a target of 1.3000 and higher.

Strategy today: Buy at 1.2750/80, stops below 1.2690, target 1.3000.

Chart: Bouncing rather nicely from support and setting a bullish tone again.

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Thursday August 17 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Aug 15 08:30 Core PPI Jul 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Aug 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Aug 17.0 15.0 15.6
Aug 15 08:30 PPI Jul 0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
Aug 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Jun NA NA $69.6B
Aug 16 08:30 Building Permits Jul 1825K 1845K 1869K
Aug 16 08:30 Core CPI Jul 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Aug 16 08:30 CPI Jul 0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Aug 16 08:30 Housing Starts Jul 1800K 1810K 1850K
Aug 16 09:15 Capacity Utilization Jul 82.7% 82.6% 82.4%
Aug 16 09:15 Industrial Production Jul 0.6% 0.5% 0.8%
Aug 16 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/11 NA NA -1114K
Aug 17 08:30 Initial Claims 08/12 315K NA 319K
Aug 17 10:00 Leading Indicators Jul 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Aug 17 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Aug 10.0 8.0 6.0
Aug 18 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Aug 82.5 84.0 84.7

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: Another step higher after trading in a 20 pip range for 24 hours prior to the rally, the euro is steadily making its way higher back towards 1.2900. The gains in the British Pound have not been nearly as convincing as the euro, and this is a little concerning, meaning that the pound will catch up over the next few days, or they are both due for a "mini collapse". Because we have been range-bound since May this year, it is likely that the market has become complacent, and this means that unpredictable moves are quite possible before the end of the summer. For today, allow for a little more work above 1.2750 and a push up to 1.2900. Generally, as long as we can hold above 1.2700, the euro should now remain bullish for a target of 1.3000 and higher. Below 1.2700, and the euro may be heading back to 1.2500.

Strategy today: Try small longs at 1.2800/1.2750, stops below 1.2700, target 1.2900 and then 1.3000.

Chart: Rather odd price action has created step-wise increases. This has been happening since last month, as the price has reacted according to each news release, rather than purely technical factors.

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Monday August 21 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Aug 23 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jul 6.60M 6.58M 6.62M
Aug 23 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/18 NA NA -1607K
Aug 24 08:30 Durable Orders Jul -1.0% 0.0% 2.9%
Aug 24 08:30 Initial Claims 08/19 310K NA 312K
Aug 24 10:00 New Home Sales Jul 1085K 1100K 1131K

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: The euro is pressing back higher towards 1.2900, but until we break clearly above there or close above there on a daily basis, we shall have to allow for more activity between 1.2900 and 1.2700. Whilst above 1.2700, dips are seen as good buying opportunities for a rally to 1.3000 and then 1.3300.

Strategy today: Buy dips on signs of basing above 1.2800, stops below 1.2780, target 1.2900 and then 1.3000.

Chart: A little more bullish, but we need to break above 1.2900 this week.




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GBP/USD

Medium Term Trend: Dropping to just above 1.8750 as we warned in Friday's report. Price activity late Friday suggests that we have made an interim base around 1.8770, and that we should now try to rally back to 1.9000, where the recent highs will be challenged. Hopefully, any dips early this week will hold above 1.8800 and these are now seen as opportunities to buy Cable for a medium term trend higher towards 1.9700 and perhaps 2.000.

Strategy today: Buy on signs of basing between 1.8800 and 1.8750, stops below 1.8770, target 1.9000 and then 1.9100

Chart: Volatile intraday activity at 1.8800 seems to indicate a base is in place.

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Tuesday August 22 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Aug 23 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jul 6.60M 6.58M 6.62M
Aug 23 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/18 NA NA -1607K
Aug 24 08:30 Durable Orders Jul -1.0% 0.0% 2.9%
Aug 24 08:30 Initial Claims 08/19 310K NA 312K
Aug 24 10:00 New Home Sales Jul 1085K 1100K 1131K

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: Very difficult markets as the euro rushed up to 1.2940 and then dropped just as convincingly to 1.2850. Generally, whilst above 1.2700, and certainly 1.2450, the trend remains upwards, but levels are not very clear and we should expect many more "spikes" and "false breaks" as the euro grapples with these very important long term resistance levels. Today we should try to hold above 1.2780 again, with dips to 1.2850/1.2800 seen as opportunities to buy dips. Only a break below 1.2700 will change the short term picture, which would then probably see a full retracement to 1.2450.

Strategy today: Buy dips on signs of basing above 1.2800, stops below 1.2780, target 1.2900 and then 1.3000.

Chart: Not going higher very fast, but steadily edging upwards.