Forex618 Daily Currency report

[forex618]

Forex-Science.com Daily Currency report for Friday May 11 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
May 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Mar $4.0B $4.5B $3.0B
May 08 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Mar 0.4% 0.4% 0.5%
May 09 10:30 Crude Inventories 05/04 NA NA 1169K
May 09 14:15 FOMC policy statement
May 10 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Apr NA NA 0.6%
May 10 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Apr NA NA 0.3%
May 10 08:30 Initial Claims 05/05 325K 320K 305K
May 10 08:30 Trade Balance Mar -$59.5B -$60.0B -$58.4B
May 10 14:00 Treasury Budget Apr $160.0B $135.0B $118.8B
May 11 08:30 Retail Sales Apr 0.6% 0.4% 0.7%
May 11 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Apr 0.6% 0.4% 0.8%
May 11 08:30 PPI Apr 0.7% 0.6% 1.0%
May 11 08:30 Core PPI Apr 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
May 11 10:00 Business Inventories Mar 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3700

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Lower slightly to 1.3450, but bearish momentum is surprisingly low and there is good support between here and 1.3400/1.3380. Even though weekly direction is bearish, we expect a strong bounce from here, and there are signs of basing on hourly charts even at this early stage. Try small longs at 1.3450, re-trying at 1.3400, with an initial target of 1.3550 and then another retest of the all time high at 1.3680. Below 1.3380 postpones all of this and we would then expect another strong decline towards weekly trend line support at 1.3150.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3600, 1.3625.

Counter-trend opportunities: Buy 1.3480, stops below 1.3440. Be prepared to re-buy at 1.3400, stops below 1.3350

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

forex618.net Daily Currency report for Monday May 14 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
May 15 08:30 CPI Apr 0.5% 0.5% 0.6%
May 15 08:30 Core CPI Apr 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
May 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index May 8.0 9.5 3.8
May 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Mar $70.0B $58.1B
May 16 08:30 Housing Starts Apr 1480K 1485K 1518K
May 16 08:30 Building Permits Apr 1525K 1520K 1564K
May 16 09:15 Industrial Production Apr 0.2% 0.3% -0.2%
May 16 09:15 Capacity Utilization Apr 81.4% 81.5% 81.4%
May 16 10:30 Crude Inventories 05/11 NA NA 5511K
May 17 08:30 Initial Claims 05/12 315K 310K 297K
May 17 10:00 Leading Indicators Apr -0.2% 0.0% 0.1%
May 17 12:00 Philadelphia Fed May 3.0 2.0 0.2
May 18 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. May 85.0 87.0 87.1

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3628

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: The euro found support at 1.3460 as expected, and has now bounced fairly strongly back to 1.3550, which is 38% of the decline from the recent high of 1.3680. Whilst weekly momentum is bearish, long term momentum remains bullish, and this means that direction this week is still up for debate. We will continue to look to sell into rallies whilst below 1.3630, with first resistance at 1.3550, and probably stronger resistance at 1.3600. Wait for a clear G7 reversal signal before selling. Counter trend long trades may also be taken lower down if we get a new leg down to 1.3400/1.3370.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3600, 1.3550

Counter-trend opportunities: BUY at 1.3400, stops below 1.3350, target 1.3500

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex-Science.com Daily Currency report for Tuesday May 15 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
May 15 08:30 CPI Apr 0.5% 0.5% 0.6%
May 15 08:30 Core CPI Apr 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
May 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index May 8.0 9.5 3.8
May 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Mar $70.0B $58.1B
May 16 08:30 Housing Starts Apr 1480K 1485K 1518K
May 16 08:30 Building Permits Apr 1525K 1520K 1564K
May 16 09:15 Industrial Production Apr 0.2% 0.3% -0.2%
May 16 09:15 Capacity Utilization Apr 81.4% 81.5% 81.4%
May 16 10:30 Crude Inventories 05/11 NA NA 5511K
May 17 08:30 Initial Claims 05/12 315K 310K 297K
May 17 10:00 Leading Indicators Apr -0.2% 0.0% 0.1%
May 17 12:00 Philadelphia Fed May 3.0 2.0 0.2
May 18 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. May 85.0 87.0 87.1

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3628

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: No change after an incredibly quiet day yesterday. (The 14 day ATR is the lowest is has been for over 10 years, so expect some explosive movement soon)) The euro found support at 1.3460 as expected, and has now bounced fairly strongly back to 1.3550, which is 38% of the decline from the recent high of 1.3680. Whilst weekly momentum is bearish, long term momentum remains bullish, and this means that direction this week is still up for debate. We will continue to look to sell into rallies whilst below 1.3630, with first resistance (and 200 hour SMA) at 1.3550, and probably stronger resistance at 1.3600. Wait for a clear G7 reversal signal before selling. Counter trend long trades may also be taken lower down if we get a new leg down to 1.3400/1.3370.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3600, 1.3550

Counter-trend opportunities: BUY at 1.3400, stops below 1.3350, target 1.3500

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

www.forex618.net Daily Currency report for Thursday May 17 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
May 15 08:30 CPI Apr 0.5% 0.5% 0.6%
May 15 08:30 Core CPI Apr 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
May 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index May 8.0 9.5 3.8
May 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Mar $70.0B $58.1B
May 16 08:30 Housing Starts Apr 1480K 1485K 1518K
May 16 08:30 Building Permits Apr 1525K 1520K 1564K
May 16 09:15 Industrial Production Apr 0.2% 0.3% -0.2%
May 16 09:15 Capacity Utilization Apr 81.4% 81.5% 81.4%
May 16 10:30 Crude Inventories 05/11 NA NA 5511K
May 17 08:30 Initial Claims 05/12 315K 310K 297K
May 17 10:00 Leading Indicators Apr -0.2% 0.0% 0.1%
May 17 12:00 Philadelphia Fed May 3.0 2.0 0.2
May 18 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. May 85.0 87.0 87.1

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3628

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Down to 1.3520, and momentum remains bearish. We should now be able to hold below 1.3560/80 to set up for the next leg downwards to 1.3400/1.3360. Trading this month has been fairly messy, so we may have to continue like this for another few days. Allow for a lot more work between 1.3520 and 1.3580, with a break below 1.3500 setting off the move downwards. If we do manage a close above 1.3580, this means that a new interim low is already in place above 1.3500, and a new all-time high is on the cards. For today, hold shorts from 1.3600, with stops at breakeven. The target is 1.3400.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3615, 1.3570

Counter-trend opportunities: None

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Friday May 18 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
May 15 08:30 CPI Apr 0.5% 0.5% 0.6%
May 15 08:30 Core CPI Apr 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
May 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index May 8.0 9.5 3.8
May 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Mar $70.0B $58.1B
May 16 08:30 Housing Starts Apr 1480K 1485K 1518K
May 16 08:30 Building Permits Apr 1525K 1520K 1564K
May 16 09:15 Industrial Production Apr 0.2% 0.3% -0.2%
May 16 09:15 Capacity Utilization Apr 81.4% 81.5% 81.4%
May 16 10:30 Crude Inventories 05/11 NA NA 5511K
May 17 08:30 Initial Claims 05/12 315K 310K 297K
May 17 10:00 Leading Indicators Apr -0.2% 0.0% 0.1%
May 17 12:00 Philadelphia Fed May 3.0 2.0 0.2
May 18 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. May 85.0 87.0 87.1

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3628

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Edging lower despite attempts to base at around 1.3480. Today the euro will probably move lower still, as low as 1.3400 - 1.3360, perhaps forming a "spike low" in the process. This will be a good time to buy euros for a strong bounce higher, and perhaps a rally to form a new all-time high. If you are still short, hold your position with lowered stops, being prepared to exit and reverse on a clear signal at the aforementioned levels. A move above 1.3560 cancels this scenario, and means we already have a new interim base in place.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3560

Counter-trend opportunities: BUY near 1.3400/1.3360 on signs of basing

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Monday May 21 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
May 23 10:30 Crude Inventories 05/18 NA NA 1061K
May 24 08:30 Durable Orders Apr 0.7% 1.0% 3.7%
May 24 08:30 Initial Claims 05/19 315K 300K 293K
May 24 10:00 New Home Sales Apr 850K 860K 858K
May 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales Apr 6.20M 6.10M 6.12M

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3610

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: We managed to base around 1.3470 on Friday as expected, but the rally from there has been weak and muted, with little support from the other majors. Weekly momentum remains bearish and this leads us to believe that rallies will be opportunities to sell euros, for another stab lower, possibly to 1.3350 - a good place to exit and reverse positions to long. In order for this scenario to work out, the euro should ideally hold below 1.3540/60, but we will allow for rallies as high as 1.3600 before completely abandoning the idea. For today, wait to sell at 1.3540, stops above 1.3570, with a target of 1.3400, where we will look to exit and reverse.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3540/60

Counter-trend opportunities: BUY near 1.3400/1.3360 on signs of basing

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Tuesday May 22 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
May 23 10:30 Crude Inventories 05/18 NA NA 1061K
May 24 08:30 Durable Orders Apr 0.7% 1.0% 3.7%
May 24 08:30 Initial Claims 05/19 315K 300K 293K
May 24 10:00 New Home Sales Apr 850K 860K 858K
May 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales Apr 6.20M 6.10M 6.12M

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3610

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Lower again to 1.3430, but this gradual decline in the majors does not look like an impulse move and it is only a matter of time before a sudden large rally. We should try to base between 1.3430 and 1.3350, but it is hard to tell exactly where, due to the sporadic and corrective-type decline taking place. For today, we will hold onto longs taken near the bottom of yesterday's dip, but be prepared to re-buy between 1.3400 and 1.3350 (major support) if stopped out. Target is 1.3560 and probably 1.3600.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3540/60

Counter-trend opportunities: BUY near 1.3400/1.3360 on signs of basing

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Thursday May 24 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
May 23 10:30 Crude Inventories 05/18 NA NA 1061K
May 24 08:30 Durable Orders Apr 0.7% 1.0% 3.7%
May 24 08:30 Initial Claims 05/19 315K 300K 293K
May 24 10:00 New Home Sales Apr 850K 860K 858K
May 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales Apr 6.20M 6.10M 6.12M

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3610

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Whipsaw price action yesterday saw the euro drop to 1.3410, then rally to 1.3500, before dropping back to 1.3450. This means that, despite the price movement, we are back where we started and the overall technicals remain unchanged: Despite a bearish weekly direction, we remain at the lower end of the range and near very key support, with a clear "Doji" candle on the daily charts. This means that the price will probably stabilise between 1.3400 and 1.3550, before a new rally. For today, be prepared to re-buy between 1.3430 and 1.3350 (major support). Target is 1.3560 and probably 1.3600.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3500/60

Counter-trend opportunities: BUY near 1.3430/1.3360 on signs of basing

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex-Science.com Daily Currency report for Friday May 25 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
May 23 10:30 Crude Inventories 05/18 NA NA 1061K
May 24 08:30 Durable Orders Apr 0.7% 1.0% 3.7%
May 24 08:30 Initial Claims 05/19 315K 300K 293K
May 24 10:00 New Home Sales Apr 850K 860K 858K
May 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales Apr 6.20M 6.10M 6.12M

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3610

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: No change since yesterday at all, as we try to base (unconvincingly so far) above 1.3410. Despite a bearish weekly direction, we remain at the lower end of the range and near very key support, with a clear "Doji" candle on the daily charts. This means that the price will probably stabilise between 1.3400 and 1.3350, before a new rally. For today, be prepared to re-buy between 1.3430 and 1.3350 (major support). Target is 1.3560 and probably 1.3600.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3500/60

Counter-trend opportunities: BUY near 1.3410 on signs of basing

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Monday May 28 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
May 29 10:00 Consumer Confidence May 105.0 104.5 104.0
May 30 10:30 Crude Inventories 05/25 NA NA 1969K
May 30 14:00 FOMC Minutes May 9
May 31 08:30 GDP-Prel. Q1 0.7% 0.7% 1.3%
May 31 08:30 Chain Deflator-Prel. Q1 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
May 31 08:30 Initial Claims 05/26 315K NA 311K
May 31 09:45 Chicago PMI May 54.5 54.3 52.9
May 31 10:00 Construction Spending Apr -0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
May 31 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Apr 30 30
Jun 01 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls May 130K 140K 88K
Jun 01 08:30 Unemployment Rate May 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
Jun 01 08:30 Hourly Earnings May 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%
Jun 01 08:30 Average Workweek May 33.8 33.8 33.8
Jun 01 08:30 Personal Income Apr 0.5% 0.4% 0.7%
Jun 01 08:30 Personal Spending Apr 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Jun 01 08:30 Core PCE Inflation Apr 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Jun 01 10:00 ISM Index May 53.5 54.0 54.7
Jun 01 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. May 88.7 88.5 88.7
Jun 01 10:00 Pending Home Sales Apr 0.0% -4.9%
Jun 01 17:00 Auto Sales May 5.1M 5.2M 5.0M
Jun 01 17:00 Truck Sales May 7.6M 7.4M 7.5M

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3531

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Volatility in this market is almost at a record low, so it's no wonder that we at the same place we were most of last week, and the analysis has not changed. W continue to try to base (unconvincingly so far) above 1.3410. Despite a bearish weekly direction, we remain at the lower end of the range and near very key support, with a clear "Doji" candle on the daily charts last week. This means that the price will probably stabilise between 1.3400 and 1.3350, before a new rally. For today, be prepared to re-buy between 1.3430 and 1.3350 (major support). Target is 1.3560 and probably 1.3600. Note that volatility is cyclical, so expect an increase in daily trading ranges soon!

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3500/60

Counter-trend opportunities: BUY near 1.3410 on signs of basing

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Wednesday May 30 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
May 29 10:00 Consumer Confidence May 105.0 104.5 104.0
May 30 10:30 Crude Inventories 05/25 NA NA 1969K
May 30 14:00 FOMC Minutes May 9
May 31 08:30 GDP-Prel. Q1 0.7% 0.7% 1.3%
May 31 08:30 Chain Deflator-Prel. Q1 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
May 31 08:30 Initial Claims 05/26 315K NA 311K
May 31 09:45 Chicago PMI May 54.5 54.3 52.9
May 31 10:00 Construction Spending Apr -0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
May 31 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Apr 30 30
Jun 01 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls May 130K 140K 88K
Jun 01 08:30 Unemployment Rate May 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
Jun 01 08:30 Hourly Earnings May 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%
Jun 01 08:30 Average Workweek May 33.8 33.8 33.8
Jun 01 08:30 Personal Income Apr 0.5% 0.4% 0.7%
Jun 01 08:30 Personal Spending Apr 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Jun 01 08:30 Core PCE Inflation Apr 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Jun 01 10:00 ISM Index May 53.5 54.0 54.7
Jun 01 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. May 88.7 88.5 88.7
Jun 01 10:00 Pending Home Sales Apr 0.0% -4.9%
Jun 01 17:00 Auto Sales May 5.1M 5.2M 5.0M
Jun 01 17:00 Truck Sales May 7.6M 7.4M 7.5M

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3531

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Up 100 pips yesterday and then right back down again. It's no wonder that the market is lacking direction as we near the end of this month, with many traders probably frustrated at the lack of volatility and hurting from the number of whipsaws this month. Yesterday's "spike high" means that weekly and daily momentum remains bearish, and we continue to expect a drop to between 1.3350 and 1.3300 before a new base is formed. There is an outside chance that 1.3420 (yesterday's low) will hold for the rest of this week, but this is the less likely scenario. For today, stay out and wait for dips to 1.3300 - 1.3360 before watching for clear signs of basing before buying. Target 1.3500.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3520

Counter-trend opportunities: BUY between 1.3300 and 1.3350 on signs of basing, stops below 1.3280.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Thursday May 31 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
May 29 10:00 Consumer Confidence May 105.0 104.5 104.0
May 30 10:30 Crude Inventories 05/25 NA NA 1969K
May 30 14:00 FOMC Minutes May 9
May 31 08:30 GDP-Prel. Q1 0.7% 0.7% 1.3%
May 31 08:30 Chain Deflator-Prel. Q1 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
May 31 08:30 Initial Claims 05/26 315K NA 311K
May 31 09:45 Chicago PMI May 54.5 54.3 52.9
May 31 10:00 Construction Spending Apr -0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
May 31 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Apr 30 30
Jun 01 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls May 130K 140K 88K
Jun 01 08:30 Unemployment Rate May 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
Jun 01 08:30 Hourly Earnings May 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%
Jun 01 08:30 Average Workweek May 33.8 33.8 33.8
Jun 01 08:30 Personal Income Apr 0.5% 0.4% 0.7%
Jun 01 08:30 Personal Spending Apr 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Jun 01 08:30 Core PCE Inflation Apr 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Jun 01 10:00 ISM Index May 53.5 54.0 54.7
Jun 01 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. May 88.7 88.5 88.7
Jun 01 10:00 Pending Home Sales Apr 0.0% -4.9%
Jun 01 17:00 Auto Sales May 5.1M 5.2M 5.0M
Jun 01 17:00 Truck Sales May 7.6M 7.4M 7.5M

USD/JPY

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 120.80

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: As our view for long term dollar weakness remains intact, we feel that 122.20 will cap rallies and initiate a drop back towards 105.00. Above 122.20 means that the dollar could rally much higher before a medium term top is formed.

Today's trade suggestion: Perhaps the most interesting chart today, as the dollar begins to collapse onto the rising hourly trend line and a sudden break lower is only a matter of time (see hourly chart). We need to break the trend line and close below 121.00 before momentum turns bearish. Remember that 122.20 (reached in January this year) is the highest price since 2003, and whilst below here, the dollar should eventually fail, possibly quite dramatically. However, it is difficult to determine exactly where the dollar will top out, and we will even allow for a brief "spike" through 122.20. Watch for clear signs of topping this week before selling into rallies.

Key G7 support levels: 120.80, 120.20

Counter-trend opportunities: SELL 122.10, stop 122.40, target 119.50

USD/JPY Hourly chart:



USD/JPY Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Monday Jun 04 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jun 04 10:00 Factory Orders Apr 1.5% 0.6% 3.5%
Jun 05 10:00 ISM Services May 56.0 55.0 56.0
Jun 06 08:30 Productivity-Rev. Q1 1.0% 1.4% 1.7%
Jun 06 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/01 NA NA -1956K
Jun 07 08:30 Initial Claims 06/02 315K NA 310K
Jun 07 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Apr 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%
Jun 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Apr $6.0B $6.0B $13.5B
Jun 08 08:30 Trade Balance Apr -$64.0B -$63.0B -$63.9B

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish, but potential "Doji" reversal

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3520

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Price action continues to be terribly boring and there has been little change in price levels for the past three weeks. However, last week's "doji" against the first set of support levels and near the weekly trend line, means that if we can hold above roughly 1.3400, the chance of a new move higher has increased. Either hold longs from 1.3400, or stay out of this market until we get a decisive move one way or the other. Note that weekly ATR has dropped even lower (see weekly chart - around 149 pips) - Don't be lulled into a false sense of security. Large moves are due soon!

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3480, 1.3520

Counter-trend opportunities: None

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex-Science.com Daily Currency report for Tuesday Jun 05 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jun 04 10:00 Factory Orders Apr 1.5% 0.6% 3.5%
Jun 05 10:00 ISM Services May 56.0 55.0 56.0
Jun 06 08:30 Productivity-Rev. Q1 1.0% 1.4% 1.7%
Jun 06 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/01 NA NA -1956K
Jun 07 08:30 Initial Claims 06/02 315K NA 310K
Jun 07 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Apr 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%
Jun 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Apr $6.0B $6.0B $13.5B
Jun 08 08:30 Trade Balance Apr -$64.0B -$63.0B -$63.9B

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish, but potential "Doji" reversal

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3520

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: We managed a 60 pip rally yesterday, which has taken the price to just below the weekly reversal level. This has increased the chance of another move higher, but we need to close above 1.3520 at the very least, before momentum turns bullish. Note the "rounded bottom" formed over the past few weeks on hourly charts, lending more weight to the argument that the euro is to rally soon. Strategy remains unchanged: Either hold longs from 1.3400, or stay out of this market until we get a decisive move one way or the other.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3520

Counter-trend opportunities: None

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Wednesday Jun 06 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jun 04 10:00 Factory Orders Apr 1.5% 0.6% 3.5%
Jun 05 10:00 ISM Services May 56.0 55.0 56.0
Jun 06 08:30 Productivity-Rev. Q1 1.0% 1.4% 1.7%
Jun 06 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/01 NA NA -1956K
Jun 07 08:30 Initial Claims 06/02 315K NA 310K
Jun 07 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Apr 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%
Jun 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Apr $6.0B $6.0B $13.5B
Jun 08 08:30 Trade Balance Apr -$64.0B -$63.0B -$63.9B

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3425

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: The Euro has maintained its upward momentum and managed to pierce through the weekly reversal level. It has yet to close above 1.3520 and change our weekly trend direction outlook. Expect some whipsawing movement before the Euro makes a decisive move in either direction. Strategy for today: We now look to buy dips to support, with the first levels at 1.3450 and 1.3470. Only buy on clear entry signals with a short term target of 1.3600.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3450/70

Counter-trend opportunities: None

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Thursday Jun 07 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jun 04 10:00 Factory Orders Apr 1.5% 0.6% 3.5%
Jun 05 10:00 ISM Services May 56.0 55.0 56.0
Jun 06 08:30 Productivity-Rev. Q1 1.0% 1.4% 1.7%
Jun 06 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/01 NA NA -1956K
Jun 07 08:30 Initial Claims 06/02 315K NA 310K
Jun 07 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Apr 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%
Jun 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Apr $6.0B $6.0B $13.5B
Jun 08 08:30 Trade Balance Apr -$64.0B -$63.0B -$63.9B

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

USD/JPY

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 122.20

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: As our view for long term dollar weakness remains intact, we feel that 122.20 will cap rallies and initiate a drop back towards 105.00. Above 122.20 means that the dollar could rally much higher before a medium term top is formed.

Today's trade suggestion: We managed a brief dip below 121.00 yesterday, but sadly not a daily close. Allow for a bit more messy work above there again today, with rallies hopefully holding below 121.45/60.(See chart - Fib resistance, previous trend-line and 200 SMA) Then another leg lower towards 120.00 and then 119.00. Hold short positions, or exit and re-sell at 121.50. First target 121.00 and then 119.00.

Key G7 resistance levels: 122.20

Counter-trend opportunities: None

USD/JPY Hourly chart:



USD/JPY Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

forex618.net daily currency report

forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Friday Jun 08 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jun 04 10:00 Factory Orders Apr 1.5% 0.6% 3.5%
Jun 05 10:00 ISM Services May 56.0 55.0 56.0
Jun 06 08:30 Productivity-Rev. Q1 1.0% 1.4% 1.7%
Jun 06 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/01 NA NA -1956K
Jun 07 08:30 Initial Claims 06/02 315K NA 310K
Jun 07 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Apr 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%
Jun 07 15:00 Consumer Credit Apr $6.0B $6.0B $13.5B
Jun 08 08:30 Trade Balance Apr -$64.0B -$63.0B -$63.9B

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3425

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: At last some movement as the euro plunges to 1.3330, and likely to go further still. Support now lies at 1.3280, and perhaps 1.3220, (Observe trend line and Fibonacci support on the weekly chart) and we will look to take counter-trend positions at these levels. The very bearish "outside week" now forming on the charts suggests that we will only base sometime next week. Watch and wait for clear entry signals at the above-mentioned levels before buying with tight stops. First target currently lies at around 1.3450, where we will look to exit longs and reverse to short on signs of reversal.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3550

Counter-trend opportunities: Buy between 1.3280 and 1.3220 on signs of reversal.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex-Science.com Daily Currency report for Monday Jun 11 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jun 12 14:00 Treasury Budget May -$71.0B -$60.0B -$42.9B
Jun 13 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. May NA NA 0.4%
Jun 13 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil May NA NA 0.2%
Jun 13 08:30 Retail Sales May 0.7% 0.6% -0.2%
Jun 13 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto May 1.0% 0.7% 0.0%
Jun 13 10:00 Business Inventories Apr 0.3% 0.2% -0.1%
Jun 13 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/08 NA NA 112K
Jun 13 14:00 Fed's Beige Book
Jun 14 08:30 Initial Claims 06/09 315K NA 309K
Jun 14 08:30 PPI May 0.7% 0.5% 0.7%
Jun 14 08:30 Core PPI May 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Jun 15 08:30 Current Account Q1 -$203.0B -$202.5B -$195.8B
Jun 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Jun 14.0 10.0 8.0
Jun 15 08:30 CPI May 0.6% 0.6% 0.4%
Jun 15 08:30 Core CPI May 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Jun 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Apr $67.6B
Jun 15 09:15 Industrial Production May 0.1% 0.1% 0.7%
Jun 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization May 81.5% 81.5% 81.6%
Jun 15 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Jun 89.0 88.0 88.3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3570

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Still managing to hold above 1.3320, but likely to go lower this week before basing properly. Support now lies at 1.3280, and perhaps 1.3220, (Observe trend line and Fibonacci support on the weekly chart) and we will look to take counter-trend positions at these levels. The very bearish "outside week" last week suggests that we will only base sometime during the middle of this week. Watch and wait for clear entry signals at the above-mentioned levels before buying with tight stops. If we do not go lower first, then look to sell into rallies to 1.3340/60 today.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3550

Counter-trend opportunities: Buy between 1.3280 and 1.3220 on signs of reversal.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex-science.com Daily Currency report for Tuesday Jun 12 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jun 12 14:00 Treasury Budget May -$71.0B -$60.0B -$42.9B
Jun 13 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. May NA NA 0.4%
Jun 13 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil May NA NA 0.2%
Jun 13 08:30 Retail Sales May 0.7% 0.6% -0.2%
Jun 13 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto May 1.0% 0.7% 0.0%
Jun 13 10:00 Business Inventories Apr 0.3% 0.2% -0.1%
Jun 13 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/08 NA NA 112K
Jun 13 14:00 Fed's Beige Book
Jun 14 08:30 Initial Claims 06/09 315K NA 309K
Jun 14 08:30 PPI May 0.7% 0.5% 0.7%
Jun 14 08:30 Core PPI May 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Jun 15 08:30 Current Account Q1 -$203.0B -$202.5B -$195.8B
Jun 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Jun 14.0 10.0 8.0
Jun 15 08:30 CPI May 0.6% 0.6% 0.4%
Jun 15 08:30 Core CPI May 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Jun 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Apr $67.6B
Jun 15 09:15 Industrial Production May 0.1% 0.1% 0.7%
Jun 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization May 81.5% 81.5% 81.6%
Jun 15 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Jun 89.0 88.0 88.3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3570

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: More signs of basing above 1.3320, but nothing very convincing at this stage. We cannot rule out another dab lower towards better support between 1.3280 and 1.3220, (Observe trend line and Fibonacci support on the weekly chart) and we will be ready to re-buy at these lower levels if seen. The very bearish "outside week" last week suggests that we will only base sometime during the middle of this week and that another dip is still a distinct possibility. Watch and wait for clear entry signals at the above-mentioned levels before buying with tight stops. If we do not go lower first, then look to sell into rallies to 1.3340/60 today.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3550

Counter-trend opportunities: Buy between 1.3280 and 1.3220 on signs of reversal.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex-Science.com Daily Currency report for Thursday Jun 13 2007

This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jun 12 14:00 Treasury Budget May -$71.0B -$60.0B -$42.9B
Jun 13 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. May NA NA 0.4%
Jun 13 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil May NA NA 0.2%
Jun 13 08:30 Retail Sales May 0.7% 0.6% -0.2%
Jun 13 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto May 1.0% 0.7% 0.0%
Jun 13 10:00 Business Inventories Apr 0.3% 0.2% -0.1%
Jun 13 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/08 NA NA 112K
Jun 13 14:00 Fed's Beige Book
Jun 14 08:30 Initial Claims 06/09 315K NA 309K
Jun 14 08:30 PPI May 0.7% 0.5% 0.7%
Jun 14 08:30 Core PPI May 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Jun 15 08:30 Current Account Q1 -$203.0B -$202.5B -$195.8B
Jun 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Jun 14.0 10.0 8.0
Jun 15 08:30 CPI May 0.6% 0.6% 0.4%
Jun 15 08:30 Core CPI May 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Jun 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Apr $67.6B
Jun 15 09:15 Industrial Production May 0.1% 0.1% 0.7%
Jun 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization May 81.5% 81.5% 81.6%
Jun 15 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Jun 89.0 88.0 88.3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3570

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Little change: Holding above 1.3280 as we thought it might, and trying to base here once again. The euro should make a better effort here, but we still won't rule out a final dip to 1.3220, (Observe trend line and Fibonacci support on the weekly chart) and we will be ready to re-buy at these lower levels if seen. The very bearish "outside week" last week suggests that we will only base sometime during the middle of this week and that another dip is still a distinct possibility. Watch and wait for clear entry signals at the above-mentioned levels before buying with tight stops. If we do not go lower first, then look to sell into rallies to 1.3370/1.3400 today.

Key G7 Resistance levels: 1.3370, 1.3400

Counter-trend opportunities: Buy between 1.3280 and 1.3220 on signs of reversal.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart: