Alpari UK
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UK Opening Call from Alpari UK on 18 November 2013
Today’s UK opening call provides an update on:
• US October data in focus this week;
• Quiet start to the week expected;
• China releases detailed set of reforms.
There’s going to be a lot of attention on the US this week, as we finally find out what impact, if any, the October government shutdown had on the US economy.
It is strongly believed by many in the markets that the shutdown will have had very little, if any, impact on the economy, as has been the case on previous occasions. However, as far as I’m concerned, this one is very different. This shutdown came at a time when the country is still trying to fully recover from the worst financial crisis since the great depression in the 1930’s.
As it is, consumers and businesses clearly aren’t overly optimistic about the US economy going forward, and who can blame them given that already this year we’ve had an increase in the payroll tax and across the board spending cuts as a result of the fiscal cliff and the sequester, respectively. With more budget battles to come over the next few months, it’s only natural to assume that a deeply polarised Congress on Capitol Hill will shoot itself, and therefore the economy, in the foot once again.
With confidence therefore so fragile, the economy may have taken a bigger hit than it would have on previous occasions, while confidence itself may take longer to return. October’s jobs report doesn’t necessarily support this, with the economy having added 204,000 jobs, however this is only one piece of data and could simply be a one-off. I don’t expect the rest of the October figures to be so positive.
There’s a number of October figures being released this week, but I think particular attention will be paid to retail sales, existing home sales and manufacturing figures. Also on Wednesday, we have the release of the minutes from the October FOMC meeting, which should highlight just how uncertain the central bankers were about the potential impact of the shutdown on the economy. If this is the case, it seems very unlikely that we’ll therefore see tapering in December as it will take longer than a couple of months for the data to show beyond doubt that we’re seeing a sustainable recovery, despite the shutdown in October.
As for today, it’s going to be relatively quiet, with no major economic releases due out of the eurozone or the US. We will hear from a couple of Fed members later on today, including William Dudley and Charles Plosser. Dudley is a voting member on the FOMC and a well known dove, so any comments on the potential winding up of asset purchases could have a significant impact on the markets, especially if he hints at earlier than expected tapering.
Chinese shares performed very well in the Asian session over night, after the Communist Party released details of the reforms that will be carried out between now and 2020. Among the many changes to be announced was an easing in the one-child policy that came into place in the 1980’s. Baby related stocks reacted strongly this announcement, helping push the main Chinese indices up more than 2%.
Ahead of the open we expect to see the FTSE down 3 points, the CAC up 1 point and the DAX down 7 points.
Today’s UK opening call provides an update on:
• US October data in focus this week;
• Quiet start to the week expected;
• China releases detailed set of reforms.
There’s going to be a lot of attention on the US this week, as we finally find out what impact, if any, the October government shutdown had on the US economy.
It is strongly believed by many in the markets that the shutdown will have had very little, if any, impact on the economy, as has been the case on previous occasions. However, as far as I’m concerned, this one is very different. This shutdown came at a time when the country is still trying to fully recover from the worst financial crisis since the great depression in the 1930’s.
As it is, consumers and businesses clearly aren’t overly optimistic about the US economy going forward, and who can blame them given that already this year we’ve had an increase in the payroll tax and across the board spending cuts as a result of the fiscal cliff and the sequester, respectively. With more budget battles to come over the next few months, it’s only natural to assume that a deeply polarised Congress on Capitol Hill will shoot itself, and therefore the economy, in the foot once again.
With confidence therefore so fragile, the economy may have taken a bigger hit than it would have on previous occasions, while confidence itself may take longer to return. October’s jobs report doesn’t necessarily support this, with the economy having added 204,000 jobs, however this is only one piece of data and could simply be a one-off. I don’t expect the rest of the October figures to be so positive.
There’s a number of October figures being released this week, but I think particular attention will be paid to retail sales, existing home sales and manufacturing figures. Also on Wednesday, we have the release of the minutes from the October FOMC meeting, which should highlight just how uncertain the central bankers were about the potential impact of the shutdown on the economy. If this is the case, it seems very unlikely that we’ll therefore see tapering in December as it will take longer than a couple of months for the data to show beyond doubt that we’re seeing a sustainable recovery, despite the shutdown in October.
As for today, it’s going to be relatively quiet, with no major economic releases due out of the eurozone or the US. We will hear from a couple of Fed members later on today, including William Dudley and Charles Plosser. Dudley is a voting member on the FOMC and a well known dove, so any comments on the potential winding up of asset purchases could have a significant impact on the markets, especially if he hints at earlier than expected tapering.
Chinese shares performed very well in the Asian session over night, after the Communist Party released details of the reforms that will be carried out between now and 2020. Among the many changes to be announced was an easing in the one-child policy that came into place in the 1980’s. Baby related stocks reacted strongly this announcement, helping push the main Chinese indices up more than 2%.
Ahead of the open we expect to see the FTSE down 3 points, the CAC up 1 point and the DAX down 7 points.
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Alpari UK
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US Opening Call from Alpari UK on 18 November 2013
Europe higher on rising eurozone exports
Today’s US opening call provides an update on:
* Investors remain bullish following last week’s Yellen testimony;
* Lots of US October data released this week;
* Bad data good for stocks ahead of December FOMC meeting;
* Eurozone trade surplus rises, helped by the periphery;
* Fed speeches in focus on Monday.
US futures are treading water so far this morning, with investors lacking any real direction due to a lack of economic data or market moving news.
Last week’s testimony from Janet Yellen is continuing to buoy investors this morning, with many taking her comments to mean that tapering is unlikely before the first quarter of 2014 at the earliest. As long as investors continue to believe this, the S&P and Dow are likely to continue to record all time highs on an almost daily basis.
There’s a lot of US economic data for October being released this week, which could be key in determining whether tapering in December will happen or not. Regardless of the data, I don’t believe it will happen, however the data could go some way to confirming this.
The jobs report, released a couple of weeks ago, suggested that the government shutdown had no negative impact on companies hiring decisions, with 204,000 new jobs being created in October. But that doesn’t mean the same will be true of the rest of the data. The biggest impact is likely to be seen in consumer spending, with people in the US being concerned about job security at a time when the recovery is weak and Congress continually shoots itself in the foot.
If the October figures this week are disappointing, I don’t see the Fed tapering. The whole point of its asset purchase program was to set the US on the path towards a sustainable recovery. This has not been seen yet, although the Fed is not at fault for this. Tapering too soon would suggest that the Fed has accepted defeat, something Yellen will not be willing to do, based on her comments last week.
Today though, things are looking a lot quieter. This morning has been very quiet, with the only notable economic release being the trade balance figure for the eurozone. The boost in exports was largely responsible for the larger trade surplus, which has been well received in the markets.
What’s particularly encouraging is that the periphery played its part in the improvement in exports, which suggests all of the austerity may finally be paying off. Quite often we see improvements in eurozone figures that are largely due to improvements in countries such as Germany and France, which essentially papers over the cracks. This is not the case here though which is very encouraging.
This afternoon, with no significant economic releases due, more focus will be paid to the comments coming from the Fed. William Dudley and Charles Plosser are both scheduled to speak and could provide important insight into what the Fed will do in December. Only Dudley is a voting FOMC member, so his comments will be followed much more closely. However, Plosser could still provide some very valuable insight.
Ahead of the open we expect to see the S&P flat, the Dow up 35 points and the NASDAQ flat.
Europe higher on rising eurozone exports
Today’s US opening call provides an update on:
* Investors remain bullish following last week’s Yellen testimony;
* Lots of US October data released this week;
* Bad data good for stocks ahead of December FOMC meeting;
* Eurozone trade surplus rises, helped by the periphery;
* Fed speeches in focus on Monday.
US futures are treading water so far this morning, with investors lacking any real direction due to a lack of economic data or market moving news.
Last week’s testimony from Janet Yellen is continuing to buoy investors this morning, with many taking her comments to mean that tapering is unlikely before the first quarter of 2014 at the earliest. As long as investors continue to believe this, the S&P and Dow are likely to continue to record all time highs on an almost daily basis.
There’s a lot of US economic data for October being released this week, which could be key in determining whether tapering in December will happen or not. Regardless of the data, I don’t believe it will happen, however the data could go some way to confirming this.
The jobs report, released a couple of weeks ago, suggested that the government shutdown had no negative impact on companies hiring decisions, with 204,000 new jobs being created in October. But that doesn’t mean the same will be true of the rest of the data. The biggest impact is likely to be seen in consumer spending, with people in the US being concerned about job security at a time when the recovery is weak and Congress continually shoots itself in the foot.
If the October figures this week are disappointing, I don’t see the Fed tapering. The whole point of its asset purchase program was to set the US on the path towards a sustainable recovery. This has not been seen yet, although the Fed is not at fault for this. Tapering too soon would suggest that the Fed has accepted defeat, something Yellen will not be willing to do, based on her comments last week.
Today though, things are looking a lot quieter. This morning has been very quiet, with the only notable economic release being the trade balance figure for the eurozone. The boost in exports was largely responsible for the larger trade surplus, which has been well received in the markets.
What’s particularly encouraging is that the periphery played its part in the improvement in exports, which suggests all of the austerity may finally be paying off. Quite often we see improvements in eurozone figures that are largely due to improvements in countries such as Germany and France, which essentially papers over the cracks. This is not the case here though which is very encouraging.
This afternoon, with no significant economic releases due, more focus will be paid to the comments coming from the Fed. William Dudley and Charles Plosser are both scheduled to speak and could provide important insight into what the Fed will do in December. Only Dudley is a voting FOMC member, so his comments will be followed much more closely. However, Plosser could still provide some very valuable insight.
Ahead of the open we expect to see the S&P flat, the Dow up 35 points and the NASDAQ flat.
Alpari UK
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UK Opening Call from Alpari UK on 19 November 2013
Today’s UK opening call provides an update on:
• Rally losing momentum as investors become more cautious;
• Data this week could tempt FOMC into small taper;
• Dovish RBA minutes in line with previous comments;
• Eurozone economic sentiment expected to improve significantly in November.
A downbeat end to the US session, followed by a similar performance in Asia over night is feeding through into European futures this morning, with indices currently seen opening around a fifth of a percentage point lower.
Uncertainty over when the Fed is going to begin tapering its bond buying program is starting to make investors a little nervous at the moment. It’s pretty clear at this stage that the only thing dragging markets higher right now is central bank stimulus. And while we are continuing to see record highs being made in the S&P and Dow in particular, you get the feeling that the momentum is waning.
This was seen very clearly towards the end of the US session on Monday, when Carl Icahn raised concerns about the sustainability of this rally. He claimed he was very cautious in relation to the stock market, which he believes could see a big drop. There’s many out there who will say that people have been saying this all year and yet the rally and gone on and on and on, but Icahn is a big player in the game and investors clearly took note of his comments.
It’s not difficult to see why Icahn, among others, see a massive drop in the not too distant future. The Fed’s stimulus program is not here to stay and the first taper is not likely to be far away, in fact it could come at the next meeting in December. Whether we see that could depend on what we learn about the performance of the economy in October, with a number of pieces of data being released this week.
If the data suggests the government shutdown had no negative impact on the economy, the Fed may be encouraged to taper a little and test the water to see if the economy can continue to grow on its own. That would be a very brave move by the Fed, given that the data has hardly been convincing, but you get the feeling that the central bank is under pressure to reduce its asset purchases, particularly from within by some of the more hawkish policy makers. Even some of the more dovish members, including William Dudley who spoke last night, appear more optimistic on the economy and could potentially be convinced by a small taper of around $10 billion.
There were no surprises when the minutes from this month’s Reserve Bank of Australia meeting were released in the early hours of this morning. The RBAs more dovish stance had previously come across in statements from the central bank, including the one that was released following this month’s meeting.
What is interesting is how openly the RBA talks about its concerns over the strong exchange rate, which is something of a taboo among central bankers. Clearly it is attempting to verbally devalue the Australian dollar, having continuously raised concerns about the strength of it, particularly against the greenback. However, the markets are not necessarily taking the threats of a rate cut very seriously, as seen by the reaction to the minutes over night, with the aussie rallying following the release.
As for today, we could be in for another relatively quiet session, with only a few notable pieces of economic data being released. This morning, the focus will be on the eurozone, where we’ll get the ZEW economic sentiment figures for November. The German figure is expected to show sentiment improving significantly among institutional investors and analysts, rising to 54 from 52.8 in October. The eurozone figure is also seen improving significantly, rising to 63.1 from 59.1 last month.
Ahead of the open we expect to see the FTSE down 24 points, the CAC down 12 points and the DAX down 20 points.
Today’s UK opening call provides an update on:
• Rally losing momentum as investors become more cautious;
• Data this week could tempt FOMC into small taper;
• Dovish RBA minutes in line with previous comments;
• Eurozone economic sentiment expected to improve significantly in November.
A downbeat end to the US session, followed by a similar performance in Asia over night is feeding through into European futures this morning, with indices currently seen opening around a fifth of a percentage point lower.
Uncertainty over when the Fed is going to begin tapering its bond buying program is starting to make investors a little nervous at the moment. It’s pretty clear at this stage that the only thing dragging markets higher right now is central bank stimulus. And while we are continuing to see record highs being made in the S&P and Dow in particular, you get the feeling that the momentum is waning.
This was seen very clearly towards the end of the US session on Monday, when Carl Icahn raised concerns about the sustainability of this rally. He claimed he was very cautious in relation to the stock market, which he believes could see a big drop. There’s many out there who will say that people have been saying this all year and yet the rally and gone on and on and on, but Icahn is a big player in the game and investors clearly took note of his comments.
It’s not difficult to see why Icahn, among others, see a massive drop in the not too distant future. The Fed’s stimulus program is not here to stay and the first taper is not likely to be far away, in fact it could come at the next meeting in December. Whether we see that could depend on what we learn about the performance of the economy in October, with a number of pieces of data being released this week.
If the data suggests the government shutdown had no negative impact on the economy, the Fed may be encouraged to taper a little and test the water to see if the economy can continue to grow on its own. That would be a very brave move by the Fed, given that the data has hardly been convincing, but you get the feeling that the central bank is under pressure to reduce its asset purchases, particularly from within by some of the more hawkish policy makers. Even some of the more dovish members, including William Dudley who spoke last night, appear more optimistic on the economy and could potentially be convinced by a small taper of around $10 billion.
There were no surprises when the minutes from this month’s Reserve Bank of Australia meeting were released in the early hours of this morning. The RBAs more dovish stance had previously come across in statements from the central bank, including the one that was released following this month’s meeting.
What is interesting is how openly the RBA talks about its concerns over the strong exchange rate, which is something of a taboo among central bankers. Clearly it is attempting to verbally devalue the Australian dollar, having continuously raised concerns about the strength of it, particularly against the greenback. However, the markets are not necessarily taking the threats of a rate cut very seriously, as seen by the reaction to the minutes over night, with the aussie rallying following the release.
As for today, we could be in for another relatively quiet session, with only a few notable pieces of economic data being released. This morning, the focus will be on the eurozone, where we’ll get the ZEW economic sentiment figures for November. The German figure is expected to show sentiment improving significantly among institutional investors and analysts, rising to 54 from 52.8 in October. The eurozone figure is also seen improving significantly, rising to 63.1 from 59.1 last month.
Ahead of the open we expect to see the FTSE down 24 points, the CAC down 12 points and the DAX down 20 points.
Alpari UK
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US Opening Call from Alpari UK on 19 November 2013
Investors turn to Bernanke for tapering insight
Today’s US opening call provides an update on:
* Europe lower on Icahn comments;
* Dudley more optimistic on US economy;
* RBA open to rate cut;
* Economic sentiment improves in the eurozone;
* Investors turn to Bernanke this evening.
European indices are down across the board on Tuesday and US futures look likely to do the same, following comments from Carl Icahn yesterday that prompted a little more caution from investors.
Icahn, a billionaire investor who’s opinion is well respected in the industry, claimed that he has become more cautious on the stock market and believes it could be facing a big drop. Now, this type of comment is something we’ve heard repeatedly this year from a whole host of people in the industry, but this time it’s really hit a nerve with investors, and I think there’s a couple of reasons for that.
The most obvious reason is that Icahn is a big player in the industry so his views are always worth listening to. The second, and probably most important, is that traders were already getting a little nervous about the sustainability of the rally, with Fed tapering just around the corner.
It’s no secret that the $85 billion being pumped into the financial system is largely behind indices trading at record highs, particularly in the US. Icahn’s comments were simply a warning that tapering is coming and low interest rates have until now papered over the cracks of recent earnings reports. Once the Fed begins withdrawing its support, the cracks will appear and investors will sell. We could very well be about to see that 15-20% drop in the stock markets that people have been warning about all year.
Not helping these tapering concerns were comments from William Dudley, who claimed last night that he is more hopeful on the economy. Given that he is typically dovish, these comments have been taken by investors as a warning that the Fed will soon begin to wind down its asset purchase program.
There were no surprises when the minutes from this month’s Reserve Bank of Australia meeting were released in the early hours of this morning. The RBAs more dovish stance had previously come across in statements from the central bank, including the one that was released following this month’s meeting.
What is interesting is how openly the RBA talks about its concerns over the strong exchange rate, which is something of a taboo among central bankers. Clearly it is attempting to verbally devalue the Australian dollar, having continuously raised concerns about the strength of it, particularly against the greenback. However, the markets are not necessarily taking the threats of a rate cut very seriously, as seen by the reaction to the minutes over night, with the aussie rallying following the release.
It’s looking like another quiet day in the markets, with the economic calendar being very thin. It’s been largely the same this morning, although we did get the ZEW economic sentiment figures for Germany and the eurozone earlier on in the session.
Both of these showed analyst and institutional investors became more optimistic in November, with the biggest improvement coming in the German figure, which rose from 52.8 last month to 54.6. The eurozone figure, while improving, still fell short of expectations of 63.1, rising only to 60.2.
The focus for the rest of the day will be a speech from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in Washington. Traders will be looking for clues from Bernanke about when we can expect the first round of tapering from the Fed, particularly, whether it is possible in December. Any suggestion that this is likely will probably be met with further selling in the coming days.
Ahead of the open we expect to see the S&P down 3 points, the Dow down 3 points and the NASDAQ down 6 points.
Investors turn to Bernanke for tapering insight
Today’s US opening call provides an update on:
* Europe lower on Icahn comments;
* Dudley more optimistic on US economy;
* RBA open to rate cut;
* Economic sentiment improves in the eurozone;
* Investors turn to Bernanke this evening.
European indices are down across the board on Tuesday and US futures look likely to do the same, following comments from Carl Icahn yesterday that prompted a little more caution from investors.
Icahn, a billionaire investor who’s opinion is well respected in the industry, claimed that he has become more cautious on the stock market and believes it could be facing a big drop. Now, this type of comment is something we’ve heard repeatedly this year from a whole host of people in the industry, but this time it’s really hit a nerve with investors, and I think there’s a couple of reasons for that.
The most obvious reason is that Icahn is a big player in the industry so his views are always worth listening to. The second, and probably most important, is that traders were already getting a little nervous about the sustainability of the rally, with Fed tapering just around the corner.
It’s no secret that the $85 billion being pumped into the financial system is largely behind indices trading at record highs, particularly in the US. Icahn’s comments were simply a warning that tapering is coming and low interest rates have until now papered over the cracks of recent earnings reports. Once the Fed begins withdrawing its support, the cracks will appear and investors will sell. We could very well be about to see that 15-20% drop in the stock markets that people have been warning about all year.
Not helping these tapering concerns were comments from William Dudley, who claimed last night that he is more hopeful on the economy. Given that he is typically dovish, these comments have been taken by investors as a warning that the Fed will soon begin to wind down its asset purchase program.
There were no surprises when the minutes from this month’s Reserve Bank of Australia meeting were released in the early hours of this morning. The RBAs more dovish stance had previously come across in statements from the central bank, including the one that was released following this month’s meeting.
What is interesting is how openly the RBA talks about its concerns over the strong exchange rate, which is something of a taboo among central bankers. Clearly it is attempting to verbally devalue the Australian dollar, having continuously raised concerns about the strength of it, particularly against the greenback. However, the markets are not necessarily taking the threats of a rate cut very seriously, as seen by the reaction to the minutes over night, with the aussie rallying following the release.
It’s looking like another quiet day in the markets, with the economic calendar being very thin. It’s been largely the same this morning, although we did get the ZEW economic sentiment figures for Germany and the eurozone earlier on in the session.
Both of these showed analyst and institutional investors became more optimistic in November, with the biggest improvement coming in the German figure, which rose from 52.8 last month to 54.6. The eurozone figure, while improving, still fell short of expectations of 63.1, rising only to 60.2.
The focus for the rest of the day will be a speech from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in Washington. Traders will be looking for clues from Bernanke about when we can expect the first round of tapering from the Fed, particularly, whether it is possible in December. Any suggestion that this is likely will probably be met with further selling in the coming days.
Ahead of the open we expect to see the S&P down 3 points, the Dow down 3 points and the NASDAQ down 6 points.
Alpari UK
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Alpari UK
Experienced member
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UK Opening Call from Alpari UK on 20 November 2013
Spotlight on BoE and Fed minutes, and US October data
Today’s UK opening call provides an update on:
• Investors look to BoE minutes for signs that policy makers favour a new unemployment threshold;
• US October data to provide crucial insight into whether the shutdown negatively impacted the economy;
• FOMC minutes may contain key clues about the likelihood of a December taper.
After a quiet start to the week, things should really pick up today, with the Bank of England minutes being released this morning, followed by a number of US economic releases and the FOMC minutes this afternoon. While the BoE minutes can provide important insight into what we can expect from future MPC meetings, not much is expected on this occasion.
BoE Governor Mark Carney made the central bank’s position perfectly clear last Wednesday during the quarterly inflation report press conference. After giving the BoEs new forecasts for growth, inflation and unemployment, Carney confirmed that forward guidance will remain unchanged, despite new forecasts showing unemployment dropping to 7% at least a year earlier than initially expected.
One thing we could learn from the meeting is whether any policy makers were in favour of changing the guidance in order to provide more comfort to households and businesses. One option would be to change the unemployment threshold to 6.5%, which would effectively be a commitment to low interest rates for another 6-12 months. The more support this idea had in the meeting, the more than there is that it will be adopted in the future. Aside from that, no change is expected in the voting, with members voting unanimously against a change in interest rates and asset purchases.
The US session this afternoon will be much more eventful. First up we have the release of the US CPI and retail sales figures for October before the opening bell. The CPI figure is unlikely to create too big a reaction in the markets for two reasons. Firstly, the figure is still well below the Fed’s 2% inflation target so is unlikely to convince policy makers to taper earlier than they would otherwise. Secondly, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is the personal consumption expenditure index, which is also well below the 2% target, so even a significant rise in this probably wouldn’t change anything.
Retail sales on the other hand are extremely important for the US economy and therefore have the potential to create big moves in the markets. These figures have been quite disappointing in recent months but the October figure could potentially be significantly worse due to the government shutdown that lasted almost three weeks.
Many analysts and economists are currently of the opinion that the impact will be minimal, hence the expectations for a 0.1% increase in retail sales in October. If they’re wrong and we see a significant reduction, it could actually prompt a rally in equities, as a poor showing in the October data would all but close the door on a December taper. The opposite is also true though, if the shutdown is shown to have no impact on the data, it could prompt investors to price in a December taper which would be negative for stocks and prompt significant risk aversion in the markets.
Finally, on the economic data front, we have the October existing home sales shortly after the US open. The number of sales fell in September due to rising mortgage rates and a lack of supply. It will be interesting to see whether the shutdown on top of these will further discourage both those looking to sell as well as those looking to buy.
To wrap things up today we have the release of the FOMC minutes from the meeting at the end of October. It was no surprise when the Fed left policy unchanged last month, but investors will be looking for hints about when policy makers intend to taper. If there is still a lot of support for tapering this year, it could lead to a December taper being heavily priced in, especially if this is paired with data that suggests the economy was unaffected by the shutdown.
Ahead of the open we expect to see the FTSE down 26 points, the CAC down 11 points and the DAX down 12 points.
Spotlight on BoE and Fed minutes, and US October data
Today’s UK opening call provides an update on:
• Investors look to BoE minutes for signs that policy makers favour a new unemployment threshold;
• US October data to provide crucial insight into whether the shutdown negatively impacted the economy;
• FOMC minutes may contain key clues about the likelihood of a December taper.
After a quiet start to the week, things should really pick up today, with the Bank of England minutes being released this morning, followed by a number of US economic releases and the FOMC minutes this afternoon. While the BoE minutes can provide important insight into what we can expect from future MPC meetings, not much is expected on this occasion.
BoE Governor Mark Carney made the central bank’s position perfectly clear last Wednesday during the quarterly inflation report press conference. After giving the BoEs new forecasts for growth, inflation and unemployment, Carney confirmed that forward guidance will remain unchanged, despite new forecasts showing unemployment dropping to 7% at least a year earlier than initially expected.
One thing we could learn from the meeting is whether any policy makers were in favour of changing the guidance in order to provide more comfort to households and businesses. One option would be to change the unemployment threshold to 6.5%, which would effectively be a commitment to low interest rates for another 6-12 months. The more support this idea had in the meeting, the more than there is that it will be adopted in the future. Aside from that, no change is expected in the voting, with members voting unanimously against a change in interest rates and asset purchases.
The US session this afternoon will be much more eventful. First up we have the release of the US CPI and retail sales figures for October before the opening bell. The CPI figure is unlikely to create too big a reaction in the markets for two reasons. Firstly, the figure is still well below the Fed’s 2% inflation target so is unlikely to convince policy makers to taper earlier than they would otherwise. Secondly, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation is the personal consumption expenditure index, which is also well below the 2% target, so even a significant rise in this probably wouldn’t change anything.
Retail sales on the other hand are extremely important for the US economy and therefore have the potential to create big moves in the markets. These figures have been quite disappointing in recent months but the October figure could potentially be significantly worse due to the government shutdown that lasted almost three weeks.
Many analysts and economists are currently of the opinion that the impact will be minimal, hence the expectations for a 0.1% increase in retail sales in October. If they’re wrong and we see a significant reduction, it could actually prompt a rally in equities, as a poor showing in the October data would all but close the door on a December taper. The opposite is also true though, if the shutdown is shown to have no impact on the data, it could prompt investors to price in a December taper which would be negative for stocks and prompt significant risk aversion in the markets.
Finally, on the economic data front, we have the October existing home sales shortly after the US open. The number of sales fell in September due to rising mortgage rates and a lack of supply. It will be interesting to see whether the shutdown on top of these will further discourage both those looking to sell as well as those looking to buy.
To wrap things up today we have the release of the FOMC minutes from the meeting at the end of October. It was no surprise when the Fed left policy unchanged last month, but investors will be looking for hints about when policy makers intend to taper. If there is still a lot of support for tapering this year, it could lead to a December taper being heavily priced in, especially if this is paired with data that suggests the economy was unaffected by the shutdown.
Ahead of the open we expect to see the FTSE down 26 points, the CAC down 11 points and the DAX down 12 points.
Alpari UK
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US Opening Call from Alpari UK on 20 November 2013
US data key ahead of December FOMC meeting
Today’s US opening call provides an update on:
* Very busy US session on Wednesday;
* US data key ahead of December FOMC meeting;
* FOMC minutes to provide hints about potential December taper;
* No surprises from BoE minutes this morning
It’s been a relatively quiet start to the week, but things are expected to really pick up on Wednesday, particularly in the US.
The US session today brings everything from hugely important economic releases, to Fed speakers and FOMC minutes from the October meeting. We could be in for some massive swings in the markets today, particularly in response to the data or the minutes, which will be released later on in the session.
The reason why the data is so important is that it covers inflation , consumer spending and housing for the month of October, when the government shut down for almost three weeks and almost defaulted on its debt. While people have tried to play down the impact these had on the economy, particularly the long term health, today’s data will give us a much better idea.
And it’s not just what impact it had on the economy, the figures will also impact how the FOMC votes on asset purchases at the meeting in December. As it stands, the consensus is for tapering to come in the first quarter of next year, probably in March, but if the October figures confirm that the shutdown and debt ceiling battle had no negative impact, policy makers could decide that the recovery is therefore on a sustainable path. If it can take these two things then it may be a good time to see how it handle a $10 billion taper, for example.
This may have been different if the October jobs report hadn’t surprised significantly to the upside. But with this data suggesting that companies were not deterred from hiring, further confirmation today that the economy took it all in its stride will surely significantly raise the odds of tapering in December. We could therefore see another example of good data prompting a significant sell off in risk assets, such as equities, as well as US Treasuries.
This would also make the FOMC minutes even more interesting as any suggestion that strong figures between October and December could prompt a taper would only exaggerate the reaction in the markets. Today could provide the clearest insight for months about how the FOMC will act in the months ahead. As always though, investors will interpret this in their own way which means we should see a huge spike in volatility today.
There were no surprises in the Bank of England minutes this morning, with the MPC voting unanimously to keep interest rates and asset purchases unchanged at 0.5% and £375 billion, respectively. There was a chance that the minutes could have provided insight into whether any policy makers were in favour of changing the banks forward guidance in response to the unemployment rate falling faster than expected.
This was not the case though which means it’s now very unlikely that it will be changed going forward. The minutes did stress that the unemployment rate hitting 7% wasn’t a trigger for a rate hike, but this is something we were already aware of, and something that Governor Mark Carney made perfectly clear at the quarterly inflation report press conference last week.
With the UK recovery expected to continue to gather pace in the coming quarters, which will lead to further speculation that the BoE will raise interest rates earlier and earlier, it’s hard to imagine what exactly will stop the sterling rally. On the upside, this will help curb any rises in inflation , which will delight households in particular given the difference between wage growth and the cost of living. The flip side of this though is the impact of the stronger pound on exporters. This is going to make the job of rebalancing the economy even more difficult for the government.
Ahead of the open we expect to see the S&P down 3 points, the Dow down 15 points and the NASDAQ down 5 points.
US data key ahead of December FOMC meeting
Today’s US opening call provides an update on:
* Very busy US session on Wednesday;
* US data key ahead of December FOMC meeting;
* FOMC minutes to provide hints about potential December taper;
* No surprises from BoE minutes this morning
It’s been a relatively quiet start to the week, but things are expected to really pick up on Wednesday, particularly in the US.
The US session today brings everything from hugely important economic releases, to Fed speakers and FOMC minutes from the October meeting. We could be in for some massive swings in the markets today, particularly in response to the data or the minutes, which will be released later on in the session.
The reason why the data is so important is that it covers inflation , consumer spending and housing for the month of October, when the government shut down for almost three weeks and almost defaulted on its debt. While people have tried to play down the impact these had on the economy, particularly the long term health, today’s data will give us a much better idea.
And it’s not just what impact it had on the economy, the figures will also impact how the FOMC votes on asset purchases at the meeting in December. As it stands, the consensus is for tapering to come in the first quarter of next year, probably in March, but if the October figures confirm that the shutdown and debt ceiling battle had no negative impact, policy makers could decide that the recovery is therefore on a sustainable path. If it can take these two things then it may be a good time to see how it handle a $10 billion taper, for example.
This may have been different if the October jobs report hadn’t surprised significantly to the upside. But with this data suggesting that companies were not deterred from hiring, further confirmation today that the economy took it all in its stride will surely significantly raise the odds of tapering in December. We could therefore see another example of good data prompting a significant sell off in risk assets, such as equities, as well as US Treasuries.
This would also make the FOMC minutes even more interesting as any suggestion that strong figures between October and December could prompt a taper would only exaggerate the reaction in the markets. Today could provide the clearest insight for months about how the FOMC will act in the months ahead. As always though, investors will interpret this in their own way which means we should see a huge spike in volatility today.
There were no surprises in the Bank of England minutes this morning, with the MPC voting unanimously to keep interest rates and asset purchases unchanged at 0.5% and £375 billion, respectively. There was a chance that the minutes could have provided insight into whether any policy makers were in favour of changing the banks forward guidance in response to the unemployment rate falling faster than expected.
This was not the case though which means it’s now very unlikely that it will be changed going forward. The minutes did stress that the unemployment rate hitting 7% wasn’t a trigger for a rate hike, but this is something we were already aware of, and something that Governor Mark Carney made perfectly clear at the quarterly inflation report press conference last week.
With the UK recovery expected to continue to gather pace in the coming quarters, which will lead to further speculation that the BoE will raise interest rates earlier and earlier, it’s hard to imagine what exactly will stop the sterling rally. On the upside, this will help curb any rises in inflation , which will delight households in particular given the difference between wage growth and the cost of living. The flip side of this though is the impact of the stronger pound on exporters. This is going to make the job of rebalancing the economy even more difficult for the government.
Ahead of the open we expect to see the S&P down 3 points, the Dow down 15 points and the NASDAQ down 5 points.
Last edited:
Alpari UK
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Alpari UK
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UK Opening Call from Alpari UK on 21 November 2013
FOMC minutes and Chinese data weigh on risk appetite
Today's UK opening call provides an update on:
• FOMC minutes and Chinese data weigh on European futures;
• Tapering could start in the next few months;
• BoJ leaves monetary policy unchanged;
• Chinese HSBC manufacturing PMI surprisingly dips in November;
• Manufacturing dominates the data releases on Thursday.
European indices are seen opening around half a percentage point lower this morning, after minutes from the October FOMC meeting suggest tapering will come at one of the next few meetings.
It may finally be time for investors to wean themselves off the drug that is quantitative easing. We've been talking about the end of QE3 for about six months now, since Chairman Ben Bernanke told the Senate Banking Committee that tapering will probably begin "later this year". A lot has changed since then with the road to recovery being much more bumpy than originally anticipated and political issues on Capitol Hill doing nothing to help the situation.
Many members of the Fed now appear eager to start winding down its asset purchases and are looking for ways to do it that will create the least disruption in the financial markets, such as setting simple thresholds for reductions, or even more simply, providing a timetable for tapering that is not data dependent. The language in the minutes suggests this could even come as early as the December meeting, hence the panic selling of equities and US Treasuries yesterday evening. Prior to this investors were looking more towards a March taper.
So far, the data we've seen for October has suggested that the shutdown and debt ceiling battle that almost led to a US default had little or no impact on the economy. For example the October payrolls were over 200,000 for the first time since February, while retail sales rose by 0.4%, the highest since July. If we can get another strong payrolls figure in November, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Fed decided to test the water in December with a small taper of around $10 billion.
Staying on the topic on central banks, the Bank of Japan over night opted to leave its asset purchases and interest rates unchanged, following its monthly meeting. This came as no surprise to the markets, which explains the muted reaction to the news.
Very few people are expecting the BoJ to increase its stimulus until at least April when the controversial increase in the consumption tax will come into place. An increase in BoJ stimulus may then be necessary to offset the negative impact to the economy, with the last increase in the consumption tax sending the economy into recession.
Also weighing on European index futures this morning was the preliminary release of the Chinese HSBC manufacturing PMI, which fell to 50.4 in November, from 50.9 in October. Expectations were for it to remain at 50.9. These figures have been very encouraging recently so I'm not sure how big a negative impact this alone has had. This could just be a one-off drop in the data, so I don't think investors will be overly downbeat about this release.
It's going to be another busy day in the financial markets on Thursday. Things get underway this morning with the preliminary release of the manufacturing and services PMIs for the eurozone, Germany and France. These figures could provide a clue about whether the recent improvements in the eurozone, that have dragged it out of recession, are going to continue into next year, or whether they are simply a brief improvement in a long and painful crisis.
As it stands, the former appears to be the case, with expectations for another improvement in the figures for November. This suggests confidence is improving as economic conditions improve, which makes perfect sense. As long as this continues, we could potentially see the sustainable recovery we are hoping for, although by this I mean one of very low growth over the next couple of years, which under the circumstances is better than we could have seen.
Later on in the US we have a number of economic releases due out of the US, starting with weekly jobless claims, which are expected to fall slightly to 335,000. After this the focus will be on the manufacturing sector, with the preliminary reading of the manufacturing PMI being released, quickly followed by the Philly Fed manufacturing index.
Ahead of the open we expect to see the FTSE down 26 points, the CAC down 11 points and the DAX down 12 points.
FOMC minutes and Chinese data weigh on risk appetite
Today's UK opening call provides an update on:
• FOMC minutes and Chinese data weigh on European futures;
• Tapering could start in the next few months;
• BoJ leaves monetary policy unchanged;
• Chinese HSBC manufacturing PMI surprisingly dips in November;
• Manufacturing dominates the data releases on Thursday.
European indices are seen opening around half a percentage point lower this morning, after minutes from the October FOMC meeting suggest tapering will come at one of the next few meetings.
It may finally be time for investors to wean themselves off the drug that is quantitative easing. We've been talking about the end of QE3 for about six months now, since Chairman Ben Bernanke told the Senate Banking Committee that tapering will probably begin "later this year". A lot has changed since then with the road to recovery being much more bumpy than originally anticipated and political issues on Capitol Hill doing nothing to help the situation.
Many members of the Fed now appear eager to start winding down its asset purchases and are looking for ways to do it that will create the least disruption in the financial markets, such as setting simple thresholds for reductions, or even more simply, providing a timetable for tapering that is not data dependent. The language in the minutes suggests this could even come as early as the December meeting, hence the panic selling of equities and US Treasuries yesterday evening. Prior to this investors were looking more towards a March taper.
So far, the data we've seen for October has suggested that the shutdown and debt ceiling battle that almost led to a US default had little or no impact on the economy. For example the October payrolls were over 200,000 for the first time since February, while retail sales rose by 0.4%, the highest since July. If we can get another strong payrolls figure in November, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Fed decided to test the water in December with a small taper of around $10 billion.
Staying on the topic on central banks, the Bank of Japan over night opted to leave its asset purchases and interest rates unchanged, following its monthly meeting. This came as no surprise to the markets, which explains the muted reaction to the news.
Very few people are expecting the BoJ to increase its stimulus until at least April when the controversial increase in the consumption tax will come into place. An increase in BoJ stimulus may then be necessary to offset the negative impact to the economy, with the last increase in the consumption tax sending the economy into recession.
Also weighing on European index futures this morning was the preliminary release of the Chinese HSBC manufacturing PMI, which fell to 50.4 in November, from 50.9 in October. Expectations were for it to remain at 50.9. These figures have been very encouraging recently so I'm not sure how big a negative impact this alone has had. This could just be a one-off drop in the data, so I don't think investors will be overly downbeat about this release.
It's going to be another busy day in the financial markets on Thursday. Things get underway this morning with the preliminary release of the manufacturing and services PMIs for the eurozone, Germany and France. These figures could provide a clue about whether the recent improvements in the eurozone, that have dragged it out of recession, are going to continue into next year, or whether they are simply a brief improvement in a long and painful crisis.
As it stands, the former appears to be the case, with expectations for another improvement in the figures for November. This suggests confidence is improving as economic conditions improve, which makes perfect sense. As long as this continues, we could potentially see the sustainable recovery we are hoping for, although by this I mean one of very low growth over the next couple of years, which under the circumstances is better than we could have seen.
Later on in the US we have a number of economic releases due out of the US, starting with weekly jobless claims, which are expected to fall slightly to 335,000. After this the focus will be on the manufacturing sector, with the preliminary reading of the manufacturing PMI being released, quickly followed by the Philly Fed manufacturing index.
Ahead of the open we expect to see the FTSE down 26 points, the CAC down 11 points and the DAX down 12 points.
Alpari UK
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US Opening Call from Alpari UK on 21 November 2013
US data in focus as indices face significant resistance
Today’s US opening call provides an update on:
* Eurozone PMIs give investors a fresh dose of reality;
* FOMC minutes and Chinese PMI also weigh on European indices;
* S&P and Dow facing significant resistance, despite futures pointing to a higher open;
* US manufacturing and jobless data key on Thursday.
Investors were given a fresh dose of reality this morning, when the eurozone manufacturing and services PMIs fell sharply in November.
The release of these figures has once again raised concerns about a two-tier eurozone, with the likes of Germany recording faster growth, improving PMIs and a growing trade surplus, while other countries face rising unemployment, recessions and falling PMIs.
The last category could even include France who could be facing another recession after announcing last week that it contracted by 0.1% in the third quarter. The November manufacturing and services PMIs suggest a recession is a very real possibility, with both now comfortably in contraction territory, at 47.8 and 48.8, respectively.
These figures just go to show that the eurozone recovery is not going to be straight forward from here. In fact 18-24 months of low growth or stagnation would actually be quite an achievement under the circumstances. Anything better than that is just unrealistic.
These figures have helped push European indices even lower on Thursday, although they didn’t need much help, with the prospect of Fed tapering in December and a disappointing Chinese HSBC manufacturing PMI already weighing on them early in the session.
The Chinese PMI fell to 50.4 in November, falling short of expectations, and October’s figure, of 50.9. I don’t think there’s necessarily much to be concerned about here as the data has improved significantly in recent months and this is likely to just be a one-off blip. Without the taper talk from the Fed, I doubt this would have weighed too heavily on risk appetite. I think the FOMC minutes have had the biggest impact on sentiment this morning.
That said, this was all priced in to the US indices yesterday, which is why they’re all expected to open around a quarter of a percentage point higher this morning. Indices are likely to pare some of yesterday’s losses today, although there’s going to be a significant amount of resistance to the upside for both the S&P 500 and the Dow, with both trading near huge psychological levels, of 1,800 and 16,000, respectively.
It’s going to take a big push to break through these levels and with investors beginning to face the possibility of a taper in December, I just don’t see it today. This fear may pass tomorrow, or even next week, with investors then focusing more on the improving fundamentals, but for now I think this will cap any significant upside moves.
As for this afternoon, there’s plenty more US data to get stuck into, with a particular focus on the manufacturing sector. Things get underway with the weekly jobless claims, which are seen falling for a fifth consecutive week to 335,000.
Following this we have the preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI for November, which is expected to rise slightly to 52.4, followed by the Philly Fed manufacturing index, also for November, which is seen declining to 15 from 19.8 last month.
Ahead of the open we expect to see the S&P up 4 points, the Dow up 41 points and the NASDAQ up 8 points.
US data in focus as indices face significant resistance
Today’s US opening call provides an update on:
* Eurozone PMIs give investors a fresh dose of reality;
* FOMC minutes and Chinese PMI also weigh on European indices;
* S&P and Dow facing significant resistance, despite futures pointing to a higher open;
* US manufacturing and jobless data key on Thursday.
Investors were given a fresh dose of reality this morning, when the eurozone manufacturing and services PMIs fell sharply in November.
The release of these figures has once again raised concerns about a two-tier eurozone, with the likes of Germany recording faster growth, improving PMIs and a growing trade surplus, while other countries face rising unemployment, recessions and falling PMIs.
The last category could even include France who could be facing another recession after announcing last week that it contracted by 0.1% in the third quarter. The November manufacturing and services PMIs suggest a recession is a very real possibility, with both now comfortably in contraction territory, at 47.8 and 48.8, respectively.
These figures just go to show that the eurozone recovery is not going to be straight forward from here. In fact 18-24 months of low growth or stagnation would actually be quite an achievement under the circumstances. Anything better than that is just unrealistic.
These figures have helped push European indices even lower on Thursday, although they didn’t need much help, with the prospect of Fed tapering in December and a disappointing Chinese HSBC manufacturing PMI already weighing on them early in the session.
The Chinese PMI fell to 50.4 in November, falling short of expectations, and October’s figure, of 50.9. I don’t think there’s necessarily much to be concerned about here as the data has improved significantly in recent months and this is likely to just be a one-off blip. Without the taper talk from the Fed, I doubt this would have weighed too heavily on risk appetite. I think the FOMC minutes have had the biggest impact on sentiment this morning.
That said, this was all priced in to the US indices yesterday, which is why they’re all expected to open around a quarter of a percentage point higher this morning. Indices are likely to pare some of yesterday’s losses today, although there’s going to be a significant amount of resistance to the upside for both the S&P 500 and the Dow, with both trading near huge psychological levels, of 1,800 and 16,000, respectively.
It’s going to take a big push to break through these levels and with investors beginning to face the possibility of a taper in December, I just don’t see it today. This fear may pass tomorrow, or even next week, with investors then focusing more on the improving fundamentals, but for now I think this will cap any significant upside moves.
As for this afternoon, there’s plenty more US data to get stuck into, with a particular focus on the manufacturing sector. Things get underway with the weekly jobless claims, which are seen falling for a fifth consecutive week to 335,000.
Following this we have the preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI for November, which is expected to rise slightly to 52.4, followed by the Philly Fed manufacturing index, also for November, which is seen declining to 15 from 19.8 last month.
Ahead of the open we expect to see the S&P up 4 points, the Dow up 41 points and the NASDAQ up 8 points.
Alpari UK
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Daily Market Update - 21 November 2013 - Alpari UK
Chief Market Analyst James Hughes discusses the major stories moving financial markets, including a reaction to yesterdays FOMC meeting minutes and a look ahead to yet more key economic data later in the week.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Kc_VyJjY9M&noredirect=1
Chief Market Analyst James Hughes discusses the major stories moving financial markets, including a reaction to yesterdays FOMC meeting minutes and a look ahead to yet more key economic data later in the week.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Kc_VyJjY9M&noredirect=1
Alpari UK
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UK Opening Call from Alpari UK on 25 November 2013
Today’s UK opening call provides an update on:
• Investors already looking ahead to massive week, next week;
• Focus remains on the October shutdown this week with more US data being released;
• UK and US housing data being released on Monday;
• Oil prices dip as Iran reaches short term deal with six major world powers.
It’s going to be a quiet start to a quiet week on Monday, as traders prepare themselves for a flurry of data next week which could determine whether or not the Fed tapers in December.
The Fed’s monetary policy has been a key driver in the financial markets for over a year now and that is unlikely to change in the next couple of weeks. We’ve already seen that the October data was largely, if not entirely, unaffected by the government shutdown and near-default of the US. If the November figures suggest the same is true, the odds on a December taper will be slashed.
The jobs report next week will be the most important release in all of this. The October report showed no impact from the government shutdown, apart from a short-term spike in the unemployment rate. If the November figures are similar, the hawks in the FOMC may just be able to convince the rest of the policy makers that it is the perfect time to test the water with a $10 billion taper.
Of course, all of this data won’t be released for another week, and in the case of the jobs report, almost two. However, traders are always looking at what the next big event is, and this is it. This is especially true when a relatively quiet week of economic releases and major events gives you little else to focus on.
This week attention will remain on the US with a few more pieces of October data scheduled to be released. These will either confirm, or call into question, whether the shutdown had any negative impact on the economy. These figures will include some sentiment surveys for November, which will give us some insight into what we can expected from the November data in the coming weeks.
As for today, there’s very few noteworthy pieces of data scheduled for release. This morning, we have the UK BBA mortgage approvals for October, which are expected to rise to 45,200 from 43,000 in September. The improvement in the housing market this year has been hugely important in the economic revival of the UK. As long as this continues, I expect the economy to continue growing at an impressive pace.
We also have the release of the US pending home sales figure for October. This is expected to show a 2% increase in the number of sales when compared to those in September, which surprisingly fell by 5.6%. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this disappoint today, with some suggesting that a lack of both supply and demand here is negatively impacting the sales of existing homes.
In the commodities market, oil futures pulled back over night following an agreement between Iran and the six major world powers on its supposed nuclear weapons program. The deal will see sanctions, imposed by the major powers on Iran, eased for the next six months, at least, leading to a greater supply of oil in the market. Brent crude futures are currently trading more than $2 lower compared to Friday’s close, a drop of more than 2%.
Ahead of the open we expect to see the FTSE up 21 points, the CAC up 8 points and the DAX up 34 points.
Today’s UK opening call provides an update on:
• Investors already looking ahead to massive week, next week;
• Focus remains on the October shutdown this week with more US data being released;
• UK and US housing data being released on Monday;
• Oil prices dip as Iran reaches short term deal with six major world powers.
It’s going to be a quiet start to a quiet week on Monday, as traders prepare themselves for a flurry of data next week which could determine whether or not the Fed tapers in December.
The Fed’s monetary policy has been a key driver in the financial markets for over a year now and that is unlikely to change in the next couple of weeks. We’ve already seen that the October data was largely, if not entirely, unaffected by the government shutdown and near-default of the US. If the November figures suggest the same is true, the odds on a December taper will be slashed.
The jobs report next week will be the most important release in all of this. The October report showed no impact from the government shutdown, apart from a short-term spike in the unemployment rate. If the November figures are similar, the hawks in the FOMC may just be able to convince the rest of the policy makers that it is the perfect time to test the water with a $10 billion taper.
Of course, all of this data won’t be released for another week, and in the case of the jobs report, almost two. However, traders are always looking at what the next big event is, and this is it. This is especially true when a relatively quiet week of economic releases and major events gives you little else to focus on.
This week attention will remain on the US with a few more pieces of October data scheduled to be released. These will either confirm, or call into question, whether the shutdown had any negative impact on the economy. These figures will include some sentiment surveys for November, which will give us some insight into what we can expected from the November data in the coming weeks.
As for today, there’s very few noteworthy pieces of data scheduled for release. This morning, we have the UK BBA mortgage approvals for October, which are expected to rise to 45,200 from 43,000 in September. The improvement in the housing market this year has been hugely important in the economic revival of the UK. As long as this continues, I expect the economy to continue growing at an impressive pace.
We also have the release of the US pending home sales figure for October. This is expected to show a 2% increase in the number of sales when compared to those in September, which surprisingly fell by 5.6%. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this disappoint today, with some suggesting that a lack of both supply and demand here is negatively impacting the sales of existing homes.
In the commodities market, oil futures pulled back over night following an agreement between Iran and the six major world powers on its supposed nuclear weapons program. The deal will see sanctions, imposed by the major powers on Iran, eased for the next six months, at least, leading to a greater supply of oil in the market. Brent crude futures are currently trading more than $2 lower compared to Friday’s close, a drop of more than 2%.
Ahead of the open we expect to see the FTSE up 21 points, the CAC up 8 points and the DAX up 34 points.
Alpari UK
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Weekly market preview - 25 November 2013 - Alpari UK
A quiet week ahead from an economic front as is often the case for the last week of the month. A minimal amount of significant top tier releases means there is often a strong platform for technical traders. Of the notable releases to watch out for, the major one from the US comes in the form of the unemployment claims figure on Wednesday. In the UK, the inflation report hearings on Tuesday are likely to provide the opportunity for most volatility going forward. Meanwhile in the eurozone, a particularly quiet week sees the German retail sales data provide one of very few highlights.
In Asia the Japanese market look to dominate, where the retail sales data figure provides an indicator of how the economy might cope with the 2014 sales tax.
US
A quiet week in the US, where the only events of note are associated with the housing market, consumer confidence and the unemployment claims. The housing figures typically pass without too much market attention, given the relatively low volitility in the figure. The pending home sales figure comes in a percentage form and thus we often see larger swings in this release. Markets are hoping for a push back into positive territory, with a figure of 2.2%, following four months of negative growth. That being said, this has disappointed on the last three occasions and given the latter part of the year often quietens down for the housing market, I would not be surprised to see a lower figure.
Tuesday’s building permits release is also one to look out for, yet can often be somewhat unexciting. The expectations point towards a rise from 918k to 940k. However I will be looking out for a significantly different figure to provide any sort of major market movement. We haven’t had a particularly strong reading for four months now, so the emphasis will be upon a possible under-performance.
Also on Tuesday, the consumer confidence figure will provide a good indicator of whether the US consumer is beginning to recover from the detrimental standoff in the Congress. The past two readings have wiped over 10.0 from the July figure of 81.5. However, there is a noticeable degree of stability now and thus there is a possibility that we could see a strong rebound back into the mid 70′s. Estimates point towards a 1.0 rise to 72.2. Definitely one to keep an eye on.
Finally, the weekly unemployment claims figure due out on Wednesday is expected to provide possibly the most notable figure to watch out for owing to the association with possible December tapering. The FOMC minutes pointed towards a propensity to begin tapering within the next few months and for that reason there is a heightened degree of sensitivity regarding anything reading that may change the chances of that happening. The expectations point towards a rise in claims from 323k to 331k. However, this allows for a shock in the other direction which is certainly possible given the recent downward trajectory of this data point.
UK
An interesting week for the UK economy, largely for the existence of the inflation report hearing on Tuesday. Apart from that, the GDP revision on Wednesday and the semi-annual financial stability report on Thursday will make up the rest of the week.
The major event of the week is likely to be Tuesday’s inflation report hearing, where members of the BoE’s MPC are quizzed by the always thorough Treasury Select Committee. The questioning can extend to a number of hours overall and on this occasion the topic being covered is the inflation report brought out two weeks ago. The inflation report was notable for a number of reasons. Firstly, as we expected, the forecasts of growth, inflation and unemployment were revised in a positive manner to account for the improvement seen throughout the previous months. However, this also meant that we saw a change in the timeline associated with the forward guidance set by the BoE, given that the 7.0% threshold will likely be hit around a year earlier than previously expected. The market will be looking out for any changes in sentiment or possible wavering in the BoE forward guidance. Given how comprehensive the treasury committee are, I expect they will leave no rock unturned and thus there could be significant volatility throughout Tuesday’s London session.
On Wednesday, the second estimate of Q3 UK GDP is likely to dominate the markets this side of the Atlantic. In much the same way as most GDP revisions, the expectations point towards a steady figure (in this case 0.8%). However, given the current upward trajectory, there is a possibility of a marginal rise. Also look out for the year on year figure, previously at 1.3%.
Finally, on Thursday, Mark Carney will take to the stand in London to discuss the financial stability report, also released that morning. Both the speech and report will be worth watching out for as a driver of volatility. The report covers a number of factors which could affect stability in the system, however we will be looking out for any monetary policy aspects primarily as a possible market driver.
Eurozone
A very quiet week for the eurozone, where the only real event of note is the German retail sales figure, due on Friday. The German economy is obviously the mainstay of the whole single currency region, and for that reason a strong consumer environment is essential to continued strength. The markets are looking for positive growth in this figure, with 0.5% being forecast, following a tumble of -0.6% last month. However, this figure does not typically bring much of a market response and thus it would take a significant miss for many to take note.
Asia & Oceania
A more interesting week in Japan ahead, where the BoJ monetary policy minutes and retail sales figures provide possible volatility. The BoJ minutes are always worth watching out for given that the area remains in a transitional phase. The recent indications from the BoJ are that the focus is largely upon the introduction of the sales tax in April, along with a hopeful depreciation of the yen. The latter finally appears to be happening, with USDJPY finally breaking higher after months of sideways range trading. As a result there has been strength within the Nikkei to the upside. Thus overall, the current stimulus policy seems to be working, leaving little appetite for reduction. We will look for any possible notes regarding an increase, however overall I do not expect much change from previous months.
On Wednesday, the Japanese retail sales figure is expected to show a third month of positive growth in the measure. This is important as it allows the BoJ an idea of whether the consumer market is strong enough to handle the imposition of the proposed sales tax in April 2014.
A quiet week ahead from an economic front as is often the case for the last week of the month. A minimal amount of significant top tier releases means there is often a strong platform for technical traders. Of the notable releases to watch out for, the major one from the US comes in the form of the unemployment claims figure on Wednesday. In the UK, the inflation report hearings on Tuesday are likely to provide the opportunity for most volatility going forward. Meanwhile in the eurozone, a particularly quiet week sees the German retail sales data provide one of very few highlights.
In Asia the Japanese market look to dominate, where the retail sales data figure provides an indicator of how the economy might cope with the 2014 sales tax.
US
A quiet week in the US, where the only events of note are associated with the housing market, consumer confidence and the unemployment claims. The housing figures typically pass without too much market attention, given the relatively low volitility in the figure. The pending home sales figure comes in a percentage form and thus we often see larger swings in this release. Markets are hoping for a push back into positive territory, with a figure of 2.2%, following four months of negative growth. That being said, this has disappointed on the last three occasions and given the latter part of the year often quietens down for the housing market, I would not be surprised to see a lower figure.
Tuesday’s building permits release is also one to look out for, yet can often be somewhat unexciting. The expectations point towards a rise from 918k to 940k. However I will be looking out for a significantly different figure to provide any sort of major market movement. We haven’t had a particularly strong reading for four months now, so the emphasis will be upon a possible under-performance.
Also on Tuesday, the consumer confidence figure will provide a good indicator of whether the US consumer is beginning to recover from the detrimental standoff in the Congress. The past two readings have wiped over 10.0 from the July figure of 81.5. However, there is a noticeable degree of stability now and thus there is a possibility that we could see a strong rebound back into the mid 70′s. Estimates point towards a 1.0 rise to 72.2. Definitely one to keep an eye on.
Finally, the weekly unemployment claims figure due out on Wednesday is expected to provide possibly the most notable figure to watch out for owing to the association with possible December tapering. The FOMC minutes pointed towards a propensity to begin tapering within the next few months and for that reason there is a heightened degree of sensitivity regarding anything reading that may change the chances of that happening. The expectations point towards a rise in claims from 323k to 331k. However, this allows for a shock in the other direction which is certainly possible given the recent downward trajectory of this data point.
UK
An interesting week for the UK economy, largely for the existence of the inflation report hearing on Tuesday. Apart from that, the GDP revision on Wednesday and the semi-annual financial stability report on Thursday will make up the rest of the week.
The major event of the week is likely to be Tuesday’s inflation report hearing, where members of the BoE’s MPC are quizzed by the always thorough Treasury Select Committee. The questioning can extend to a number of hours overall and on this occasion the topic being covered is the inflation report brought out two weeks ago. The inflation report was notable for a number of reasons. Firstly, as we expected, the forecasts of growth, inflation and unemployment were revised in a positive manner to account for the improvement seen throughout the previous months. However, this also meant that we saw a change in the timeline associated with the forward guidance set by the BoE, given that the 7.0% threshold will likely be hit around a year earlier than previously expected. The market will be looking out for any changes in sentiment or possible wavering in the BoE forward guidance. Given how comprehensive the treasury committee are, I expect they will leave no rock unturned and thus there could be significant volatility throughout Tuesday’s London session.
On Wednesday, the second estimate of Q3 UK GDP is likely to dominate the markets this side of the Atlantic. In much the same way as most GDP revisions, the expectations point towards a steady figure (in this case 0.8%). However, given the current upward trajectory, there is a possibility of a marginal rise. Also look out for the year on year figure, previously at 1.3%.
Finally, on Thursday, Mark Carney will take to the stand in London to discuss the financial stability report, also released that morning. Both the speech and report will be worth watching out for as a driver of volatility. The report covers a number of factors which could affect stability in the system, however we will be looking out for any monetary policy aspects primarily as a possible market driver.
Eurozone
A very quiet week for the eurozone, where the only real event of note is the German retail sales figure, due on Friday. The German economy is obviously the mainstay of the whole single currency region, and for that reason a strong consumer environment is essential to continued strength. The markets are looking for positive growth in this figure, with 0.5% being forecast, following a tumble of -0.6% last month. However, this figure does not typically bring much of a market response and thus it would take a significant miss for many to take note.
Asia & Oceania
A more interesting week in Japan ahead, where the BoJ monetary policy minutes and retail sales figures provide possible volatility. The BoJ minutes are always worth watching out for given that the area remains in a transitional phase. The recent indications from the BoJ are that the focus is largely upon the introduction of the sales tax in April, along with a hopeful depreciation of the yen. The latter finally appears to be happening, with USDJPY finally breaking higher after months of sideways range trading. As a result there has been strength within the Nikkei to the upside. Thus overall, the current stimulus policy seems to be working, leaving little appetite for reduction. We will look for any possible notes regarding an increase, however overall I do not expect much change from previous months.
On Wednesday, the Japanese retail sales figure is expected to show a third month of positive growth in the measure. This is important as it allows the BoJ an idea of whether the consumer market is strong enough to handle the imposition of the proposed sales tax in April 2014.
Alpari UK
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US Opening Call from Alpari UK on 25 November 2013
US futures higher after posting record highs on Friday
Today’s US opening call provides an update on:
* US futures higher after posting record highs on Friday;
* Iran deal with P5+1 adds to positive sentiment;
* US October data in focus again this week;
* US pending home sales expected to increase in October.
European indices are pushing higher on Monday, and US futures are pointing in the same direction after both the S&P 500 and the Dow closed at record highs on Friday, surpassing big psychological levels.
Also providing a more positive mood in the markets was the short-term deal done between Iran and the P5+1, which will see some sanctions lifted on the former that have been in place for over a decade. This has weighed on oil prices so far, with Brent crude, for example trading down more than 2% earlier on today.
If both parties use this six month period to make further progress in these talks, we should see further sanctions lifted next year which should further force oil prices lower. Inflated oil prices have been a hot topic in recent years, with them having come at a time when household income has been basically frozen. Further reductions in the price should help ease the pressure on households, assuming that the Saudi’s don’t respond by reducing their supply, which has been increased in recent years in response to rising prices.
Looking ahead to this week and it’s likely to be pretty quiet. That’s not necessarily a bad thing and will probably result in the likes of the S&P and the Dow continuing to hit record highs, but as the week draws to a close, we may see a little more risk aversion ahead of what is going to be a very busy five days next week.
There’s still a little more October data being released this week from the US, which should give us further insight into how the economy handled the shutdown and the debt ceiling battle. However, we’ve already had a lot of data, all of which suggests the impact was minimal, if anything. If we get another strong jobs report in November, that will pretty much confirm this.
That then raises the question about whether the Fed needs to continue to pump $85 billion per month into the financial system. Clearly if the economy is strong enough to withstand a shutdown and a near-default, it doesn’t need so much support from the Fed. This is likely to be the thinking in the markets, and will probably be why we see a December taper being more and more priced in.
The pending home sales for October, released shortly after the opening bell, should provide some additional insight into how people responded to the shutdown. As it stands, the markets are expecting to see a 2% increase in sales following a surprise 5.6% drop in September. This would only add to the idea that the shutdown had no impact on the economy.
Ahead of the open we expect to see the S&P up 4 points, the Dow up 47 points and the NASDAQ up 10 points.
US futures higher after posting record highs on Friday
Today’s US opening call provides an update on:
* US futures higher after posting record highs on Friday;
* Iran deal with P5+1 adds to positive sentiment;
* US October data in focus again this week;
* US pending home sales expected to increase in October.
European indices are pushing higher on Monday, and US futures are pointing in the same direction after both the S&P 500 and the Dow closed at record highs on Friday, surpassing big psychological levels.
Also providing a more positive mood in the markets was the short-term deal done between Iran and the P5+1, which will see some sanctions lifted on the former that have been in place for over a decade. This has weighed on oil prices so far, with Brent crude, for example trading down more than 2% earlier on today.
If both parties use this six month period to make further progress in these talks, we should see further sanctions lifted next year which should further force oil prices lower. Inflated oil prices have been a hot topic in recent years, with them having come at a time when household income has been basically frozen. Further reductions in the price should help ease the pressure on households, assuming that the Saudi’s don’t respond by reducing their supply, which has been increased in recent years in response to rising prices.
Looking ahead to this week and it’s likely to be pretty quiet. That’s not necessarily a bad thing and will probably result in the likes of the S&P and the Dow continuing to hit record highs, but as the week draws to a close, we may see a little more risk aversion ahead of what is going to be a very busy five days next week.
There’s still a little more October data being released this week from the US, which should give us further insight into how the economy handled the shutdown and the debt ceiling battle. However, we’ve already had a lot of data, all of which suggests the impact was minimal, if anything. If we get another strong jobs report in November, that will pretty much confirm this.
That then raises the question about whether the Fed needs to continue to pump $85 billion per month into the financial system. Clearly if the economy is strong enough to withstand a shutdown and a near-default, it doesn’t need so much support from the Fed. This is likely to be the thinking in the markets, and will probably be why we see a December taper being more and more priced in.
The pending home sales for October, released shortly after the opening bell, should provide some additional insight into how people responded to the shutdown. As it stands, the markets are expecting to see a 2% increase in sales following a surprise 5.6% drop in September. This would only add to the idea that the shutdown had no impact on the economy.
Ahead of the open we expect to see the S&P up 4 points, the Dow up 47 points and the NASDAQ up 10 points.
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Alpari UK
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Alpari UK
Experienced member
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UK Opening Call from Alpari UK on 26 November 2013
Europe flat ahead of BoE inflation report hearing
Today’s UK opening call provides an update on:
• Another quiet day expected, particularly in Europe;
• BoE inflation report hearing likely to be a non-event;
• This week is the calm before the storm;
• US data to be the highlight this afternoon, particularly consumer confidence.
European indices are expected to open relatively flat on Tuesday, with FTSE and CAC futures a couple of points lower, while DAX futures are slightly higher.
It’s looking like being another quiet day in the financial markets, similar to what we saw on Monday, with trading volumes being reduced as a result of a lack of economic data or market moving news. Today is looking no different, particularly in the European session, when no medium or high impact data is scheduled for release.
The only noteworthy event this morning will be the inflation report hearing, when BoE Governor Mark Carney will testify, along with other members of the MPC, in front of Parliament’s Treasury Committee. While this can bring with it a certain amount of volatility, as MPC members go into more detail about certain aspects of recent policy decisions, I’m not expecting much from the testimony today.
The main reason for this is simply that Carney and the MPC have been very transparent about what they expect from the economy and how they intend to react to it, particularly at the inflation report press conference a couple of weeks ago. They provided the new forecasts for growth, inflation and unemployment and stated that they will stick with the initial forward guidance, despite the revised forecasts showing unemployment dropping to 7% much earlier than originally expected. I’m not sure what we can learn from today’s testimony that we don’t already know, although that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t pay attention. These things have a tendency to surprise us when we’re least expecting it.
Aside from this, we’ll have to wait for the US session this afternoon for the markets to pick up, but even then it’s expected to remain relatively quiet. What we’re seeing this week is the calm before the storm, with next week bringing a number of central bank meetings, including the RBA, ECB and the BoE, the Fed Chair nomination, the Beige Book and a large number of economic releases, including the all important US jobs report on Friday.
What this means for this week is that we’ll probably continue to see the likes of the S&P and the Dow grinding higher and hitting new record highs along the way, but when it comes to the end of the week, investors may become a little more risk averse. That said, this could depend on what we get from the data and whether it changes peoples view that the government shutdown in October had no direct impact on the economy, and more importantly, consumer and business confidence.
We have some data being released later that could impact people’s view on this, starting with housing starts and building permits for September and October. While this is less likely to have a significant impact on housing than say, consumer spending or business investment, it can still have some impact. I don’t expect that to be the case though, with both actually seen improving slightly compared to August.
The biggest release today will be the November consumer confidence figure. This should give important insight into whether the shutdown and near-default had any lasting impact on consumer sentiment, which could then affect spending. Last month we saw a huge drop in the figure, from 80.2 to 71.2 in response to the shutdown. Although this was then followed by retail sales that exceeded expectations, rising 0.4%, which goes to show that while this is a good indicator of future consumer behaviour, it’s not always reliable. That said, I expect today’s figure to better reflect the October retail sales figure, which means the expected figure of 72.9 could be a little conservative.
Ahead of the open we expect to see the FTSE down 3 points, the CAC down 1 points and the DAX up 7 points.
Europe flat ahead of BoE inflation report hearing
Today’s UK opening call provides an update on:
• Another quiet day expected, particularly in Europe;
• BoE inflation report hearing likely to be a non-event;
• This week is the calm before the storm;
• US data to be the highlight this afternoon, particularly consumer confidence.
European indices are expected to open relatively flat on Tuesday, with FTSE and CAC futures a couple of points lower, while DAX futures are slightly higher.
It’s looking like being another quiet day in the financial markets, similar to what we saw on Monday, with trading volumes being reduced as a result of a lack of economic data or market moving news. Today is looking no different, particularly in the European session, when no medium or high impact data is scheduled for release.
The only noteworthy event this morning will be the inflation report hearing, when BoE Governor Mark Carney will testify, along with other members of the MPC, in front of Parliament’s Treasury Committee. While this can bring with it a certain amount of volatility, as MPC members go into more detail about certain aspects of recent policy decisions, I’m not expecting much from the testimony today.
The main reason for this is simply that Carney and the MPC have been very transparent about what they expect from the economy and how they intend to react to it, particularly at the inflation report press conference a couple of weeks ago. They provided the new forecasts for growth, inflation and unemployment and stated that they will stick with the initial forward guidance, despite the revised forecasts showing unemployment dropping to 7% much earlier than originally expected. I’m not sure what we can learn from today’s testimony that we don’t already know, although that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t pay attention. These things have a tendency to surprise us when we’re least expecting it.
Aside from this, we’ll have to wait for the US session this afternoon for the markets to pick up, but even then it’s expected to remain relatively quiet. What we’re seeing this week is the calm before the storm, with next week bringing a number of central bank meetings, including the RBA, ECB and the BoE, the Fed Chair nomination, the Beige Book and a large number of economic releases, including the all important US jobs report on Friday.
What this means for this week is that we’ll probably continue to see the likes of the S&P and the Dow grinding higher and hitting new record highs along the way, but when it comes to the end of the week, investors may become a little more risk averse. That said, this could depend on what we get from the data and whether it changes peoples view that the government shutdown in October had no direct impact on the economy, and more importantly, consumer and business confidence.
We have some data being released later that could impact people’s view on this, starting with housing starts and building permits for September and October. While this is less likely to have a significant impact on housing than say, consumer spending or business investment, it can still have some impact. I don’t expect that to be the case though, with both actually seen improving slightly compared to August.
The biggest release today will be the November consumer confidence figure. This should give important insight into whether the shutdown and near-default had any lasting impact on consumer sentiment, which could then affect spending. Last month we saw a huge drop in the figure, from 80.2 to 71.2 in response to the shutdown. Although this was then followed by retail sales that exceeded expectations, rising 0.4%, which goes to show that while this is a good indicator of future consumer behaviour, it’s not always reliable. That said, I expect today’s figure to better reflect the October retail sales figure, which means the expected figure of 72.9 could be a little conservative.
Ahead of the open we expect to see the FTSE down 3 points, the CAC down 1 points and the DAX up 7 points.
Alpari UK
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US Opening Call from Alpari UK on 26 November 2013
Consumer and housing data key this afternoon
Today’s US opening call provides an update on:
* BoE inflation report hearing offers nothing new to the markets;
* Choppiness seen in sterling but no significant swings;
* November US consumer confidence eyed after the US open;
* Housing data also in focus on Tuesday.
As expected, it’s been a very quiet morning in the markets, with a lack of economic releases or news providing little direction.
The only scheduled event that had the potential to have any impact on the markets this morning was the Bank of England inflation report hearing in front of the Treasury Committee. However, it’s been a pretty dull affair, which I don’t think is surprising.
Aside from the fact that these events usually are quite a dull affair, this is particularly so simply because the BoE has already been very transparent until this point, most recently during the press conference following the inflation report.
It is therefore no surprise to see this having little impact on the markets. We have seen some choppiness in sterling since the start of the meeting but we haven’t seen any substantial shifts which suggests nothing new has been learned from this testimony.
Looking ahead to the rest of the day, the focus will be on the US, although this is also not likely to be much more active than the European session so far. There is a few more pieces of data being released, but this is unlikely to provide much more insight on the strength of the economy, and therefore the potential for Fed tapering in December, than we already have.
The most useful release will be the November consumer confidence figure. One of the things people were most interested in over the last couple of months was how consumers and businesses would be impacted by the shutdown. The October data, most notably retail sales and non-farm payrolls, suggests there was no negative impact. However, confirmation of this will be sought from the October figures before December will be seriously viewed as the point at which the Fed first tapers.
There are a couple of other notable pieces of data being released, which focus more on the housing market. Housing starts and building permits figures will be released before the opening bell for both September and October. Both of these are expected to rise from August despite the rise in mortgage rates in the lead up to the September Fed meeting.
This suggests that the housing market remains strong in the US, despite so much uncertainty over future rates. This would be a very positive thing going forward as it would suggest that the housing market will remain strong as the Fed winds down its purchases, despite the fact that this will, in turn, further raise rates for homeowners.
Ahead of the open, the S&P, Dow and NASDAQ are all seen opening at the levels they closed at on Monday.
Consumer and housing data key this afternoon
Today’s US opening call provides an update on:
* BoE inflation report hearing offers nothing new to the markets;
* Choppiness seen in sterling but no significant swings;
* November US consumer confidence eyed after the US open;
* Housing data also in focus on Tuesday.
As expected, it’s been a very quiet morning in the markets, with a lack of economic releases or news providing little direction.
The only scheduled event that had the potential to have any impact on the markets this morning was the Bank of England inflation report hearing in front of the Treasury Committee. However, it’s been a pretty dull affair, which I don’t think is surprising.
Aside from the fact that these events usually are quite a dull affair, this is particularly so simply because the BoE has already been very transparent until this point, most recently during the press conference following the inflation report.
It is therefore no surprise to see this having little impact on the markets. We have seen some choppiness in sterling since the start of the meeting but we haven’t seen any substantial shifts which suggests nothing new has been learned from this testimony.
Looking ahead to the rest of the day, the focus will be on the US, although this is also not likely to be much more active than the European session so far. There is a few more pieces of data being released, but this is unlikely to provide much more insight on the strength of the economy, and therefore the potential for Fed tapering in December, than we already have.
The most useful release will be the November consumer confidence figure. One of the things people were most interested in over the last couple of months was how consumers and businesses would be impacted by the shutdown. The October data, most notably retail sales and non-farm payrolls, suggests there was no negative impact. However, confirmation of this will be sought from the October figures before December will be seriously viewed as the point at which the Fed first tapers.
There are a couple of other notable pieces of data being released, which focus more on the housing market. Housing starts and building permits figures will be released before the opening bell for both September and October. Both of these are expected to rise from August despite the rise in mortgage rates in the lead up to the September Fed meeting.
This suggests that the housing market remains strong in the US, despite so much uncertainty over future rates. This would be a very positive thing going forward as it would suggest that the housing market will remain strong as the Fed winds down its purchases, despite the fact that this will, in turn, further raise rates for homeowners.
Ahead of the open, the S&P, Dow and NASDAQ are all seen opening at the levels they closed at on Monday.