It's a thoroughly pointless, overly ornate coin-flip that will be utterly worthless in any practical term. Line up all the armchair economists in the world and you've got one giant, conflicting, font of ignorance. You should learn to trade using proper risk management and strategy. The books we told you to read will teach you to trade and you're turning up your nose to "do this and do that" but since you are using a wipeout-inducing 300 pip trailing stop you are clearly not doing "this and that".
But this thread isn't to be used to for general theories about trading. The rest of the site is filled to the brim with threads like that and they are generally started and patronized by traders who do not last 6 months in the trading world.
There's a beginner's section for demo traders. Also, don't post from multiple accounts as you will be banned for doing so.