Email from my broker
Research Note: Oct. 21 Beige Book Release
Summary Outlook: On Wednesday at 1400EDT/1800GMT, the Beige Book for the Nov. 4 FOMC meeting will be released. Overall, we don't think there has been enough of a material change in the US economy--some components have improved slightly, but overall conditions remain weak--since the last Fed meeting in late September to generate a significant market reaction. More likely, in our view, the market reaction will be a continuation of moves based on stock market direction, which will revolve around 3Q earnings reports. If stocks are embracing risk (gaining), we tend to think markets will interpret the Beige Book more optimistically and seize on whatever bright spots are evident in the report. If stocks are declining, an overall weak outlook in the Beige Book will likely dominate, potentially leading to further declines in risk assets.
Trading Strategy: In light of our mostly neutral outlook for the Beige Book reaction, we will focus on key technical levels to guide our directional views.
EUR/USD:
1.4980/1.5000 is prominent resistance; strength above may see gains initially to the 1.5070/80 area.
1.4850/75 is key channel support for the current move higher; below may signal a broader correction after failing below 1.5000, with initial targets at 1.4750, then 1.4680/700.
USD/JPY:
90.00/10 is both near-term trend line support and the 21-day sma (89.95); below may see to 88.80/89.00 for starters.
91.20/50 is key resistance and strength above may signal to 92.50/70 initially.
Economic Analysis: The current Beige Book will cover economic activity from early September through mid October and we expect most of the key economic components to show a "still weak, but improving" theme.