Forex Day Trader's Thread

I'm looking at the S&P500 not the Dow .. S&P is slightly higher from the beginning of the hour.. USD/CHF surging higher now ..

EUR/USD 1.384 is very strong.. I bet 1.379 is incredibly strong..
 
Pippy5000 said:
I'm looking at the S&P500 not the Dow .. S&P is slightly higher from the beginning of the hour.. USD/CHF surging higher now ..

EUR/USD 1.384 is very strong.. I bet 1.379 is incredibly strong..
Click to expand...


okay.. we will see.. possible Triangle Patterns in the us stock indices..

enjoy
 
5 minutes to the close and it's hitting fresh highs .. looks like I was right
 
usd index daily chart confirm that it will trend higher for opening on monday,eu closed a bit higher after
a good rally down to 1.3840,and failed at this points bounce back up closing the day at 1.3920 on friday 2/1/2009.
study on eu daily chart also very clear to me that eu will heading down back i think to touch 1.3840 0support level,1.3840 have3 been tested 3 time and failed,if this level cross looking at 1.37xx till 1.25xx before heading up again.
study usd index daily chart confirmed to me that usd will most properly heading back up to 81.92 level which is the higher level done at friday. usd index closed at 81.47 on friday.
study on eliot wave chart also confirm that eu will heading back down to 1.1xx level maybe can reach 0.8600 level.eu now at wave C heading downtrend.
 
bclee66 said:
usd index daily chart confirm that it will trend higher for opening on monday,eu closed a bit higher after
a good rally down to 1.3840,and failed at this points bounce back up closing the day at 1.3920 on friday 2/1/2009.
study on eu daily chart also very clear to me that eu will heading down back i think to touch 1.3840 0support level,1.3840 have3 been tested 3 time and failed,if this level cross looking at 1.37xx till 1.25xx before heading up again.
study usd index daily chart confirmed to me that usd will most properly heading back up to 81.92 level which is the higher level done at friday. usd index closed at 81.47 on friday.
study on eliot wave chart also confirm that eu will heading back down to 1.1xx level maybe can reach 0.8600 level.eu now at wave C heading downtrend.
Click to expand...

to which level usd index wil go, you think?
 
I like the USD in general in 2009.. According to the PPP tables the fair value of EUR/USD is 1.16 and is overvalued by 2300 pips.. USD index will break 85.5 (which was a vert important level before the 1300 pip 48 hour move in EUR/USD ) and usher in a new wave of USD strength.. I see USD index at 90+ at some point in 2009 ..

After some initial rallying in EUR/USD we should get another chance for a big, big short to 1.16.. or you might try buying again at 1.316 with a tight stop or buying at 1.235 with a little room to poke its nose through..

the old 200 day SMA at 1.47 would be a great short

Eur 1.60 would be a gift from God to short again..

Realistically I'll be looking to short beginning at 1.45 with lots added at 1.46 and 1.47 before stopping them out with a stop placed reasonably beyond 1.47 to allow the trade a little breathing room but to protect margin on a break of the 1.47 to 1.384 range.

Support at 1.385 is medium
Support at 1.384 is very strong
Support at 1.379 should be a real monster (I haven't seen that level yet)

Below that a strategically placed entry order short EUR/USD might be a good idea, but I'd sacrifice a few extra pips to ensure I didn't get caught in a bear trap.. I'd look at an entry 1.374 and a t/p 1 at 1.334 stop at 1.378
 
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thanks pippy 500.. still lots of sun there in the usa?

usd index could come close to 100.. lets wait and see what this daily macd cross wil cause..
 
27.77 C right now in Houston.. unfortunately, it hits greater than 40 in the summer and is brutally hot. We're the exact same latitude as Cairo ;)

Technical indicators are looking for medium-term USD strength..

Recent news adds weight as well.. Eurozone business leaders are becoming more and more pessimistic. Which leads directly to less jobs.. Which then in turn leads in an overall downsizing of the Eurozone economy.

My feeling towards USD strength stems from a distrust of Trichet as well.. I believe Trichet continues to be too optimistic and the Eurozone countries were too slow to begin economic stimulation and that they will be outpaced in recovery by the US. The US government is in command of a truly enormous amount of money and is showing a willingness to spend it in order to prevent economic collapse. We are very lucky to have experienced the consequences of doing nothing in the 1930s and in my opinion have taken great steps to get the economy back on track.

Just wait for the next wave of mortgage problems to hit .. we're in the eye of the hurricane..

USD in 2009 will crush the Euro and commodity currencies worse than it did in November. Oil down to $25 this time.. virtually any currency save for Swiss Francs and JPY are a safe bet to be absolutely murdered by the USD. People know the 2nd bubble will come but this time they'll bet on the US in greater numbers knowing the US really is in the best position to spend their way out.
 
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Pippy5000 said:
27.77 C right now in Houston.. unfortunately, it hits greater than 40 in the summer and is brutally hot. We're the exact same latitude as Cairo ;)

Technical indicators are looking for medium-term USD strength..

Recent news adds weight as well.. Eurozone business leaders are becoming more and more pessimistic. Which leads directly to less jobs.. Which then in turn leads in an overall downsizing of the Eurozone economy.

My feeling towards USD strength stems from a distrust of Trichet as well.. I believe Trichet continues to be too optimistic and the Eurozone countries were too slow to begin economic stimulation and that they will be outpaced in recovery by the US. The US government is in command of a truly enormous amount of money and is showing a willingness to spend it in order to prevent economic collapse. We are very lucky to have experienced the consequences of doing nothing in the 1930s and in my opinion have taken great steps to get the economy back on track.

Just wait for the next wave of mortgage problems to hit .. we're in the eye of the hurricane..

USD in 2009 will crush the Euro and commodity currencies worse than it did in November. Oil down to $25 this time.. virtually any currency save for Swiss Francs and JPY are a safe bet to be absolutely murdered by the USD. People know the 2nd bubble will come but this time they'll bet on the US in greater numbers knowing the US really is in the best position to spend their way out.
Click to expand...

Hello Pippy.. i agree totally with you..

also the rates by the ECB has been kept structually too high..

its a mess here.. :innocent:

as there will be no more room for FED to cut the rates..
ECB wil finally wil have to..

same for GBP wil also be crushed..
 
RidderTrade said:
Hello Pippy.. i agree totally with you..

also the rates by the ECB has been kept structually too high..

its a mess here.. :innocent:

as there will be no more room for FED to cut the rates..
ECB wil finally wil have to..

same for GBP wil also be crushed..
Click to expand...

news, doesnt create any trends.. , but your story is overwhelming.. and so..
in the middle of the heart..

indeed.. we will see oil coming down to about 25/30.. but could be.. bouncing a bit further.. in the short term..

have a greet weekend..
 
News is an indicator and a very useful one.. A seed isn't a tree, but once the seed is planted we know logically a tree is likely to grow from that spot based on our previous experience planting trees..

Businesses become pessimistic and begin looking to save money by cutting jobs or not hiring people for new jobs.. This in turn causes people who are jobless in any industry to drop out of supporting the local economy which starts a chain reaction among retailers, manufacturers etc.. domino falling on domino.. For some reason many businesses in the Eurozone have remained optimistic, it is only now that news showing decreased confidence in the economy by business owners is likely to set off the chain reaction of bad economic events which will ultimately send the Euro tumbling vs. the USD.

It's just one more indicator of impending doom for Eur/USD .. I just don't know if we'll be heading a little higher first.. It seems like it wants to jump back into the low 1.40s doesn't it??
 
Pippy5000 said:
News is an indicator and a very useful one.. A seed isn't a tree, but once the seed is planted we know logically a tree is likely to grow from that spot based on our previous experience planting trees..

Businesses become pessimistic and begin looking to save money by cutting jobs or not hiring people for new jobs.. This in turn causes people who are jobless in any industry to drop out of supporting the local economy which starts a chain reaction among retailers, manufacturers etc.. domino falling on domino.. For some reason many businesses in the Eurozone have remained optimistic, it is only now that news showing decreased confidence in the economy by business owners is likely to set off the chain reaction of bad economic events which will ultimately send the Euro tumbling vs. the USD.

It's just one more indicator of impending doom for Eur/USD .. I just don't know if we'll be heading a little higher first.. It seems like it wants to jump back into the low 1.40s doesn't it??
Click to expand...

yeah euro/usd is doomed.. yes.. a small bounce is likely..
but i would say it is a great shorting opportunity.. prices have no business above 1.44
if yes then we could probably see 1.60 first.. but this is for me a very unlikely scenario..

i predict.. the USD will suddenly skyrocket.. actually we say some usd strenght..
i written down when euro/usd whas at 1.42/1.43 it is ready for decline..

the 1.47 is the 61.8 retrace.. from the whole decline from the 1.61 top..
 
friday, oil was sharply higher..

but usd was up solidly also..

thats the reason why you have to look at every market independently..

have a great night.
 
also.. december.. currencies are pretty thinly traded around all those.. party days..
in such an environment.. you can see FAKE trend..
so we could see some.. rolled over strenght in euro.. but the party WILL SOON BE OVER..
also the STOCK MARKET PARTY wil be ending. let the stock markets climb a bit more.. let the euro climb little bit.. go short on both of them.. and enjoy your time.

thanks, RIDDERTRADE
 
well.. but i guess the interst rate story between usd and other ccy has long been absorbed by the markets.. there will be nothing to surprise the market..
 
MACD Histogram dailies just dipped negative for the first time friday..

DMI on the dailies is 30/16 ADX=41 .. up trend is weakening ..

daily Parabolic SAR level 1.455 a failure here or at 1.47 will cause me to load the trade with many lots going short..

I was just sent a signal EUR/USD sell 1.3845 from breakout2 strategy which has produced 98 pips per trade on average in the last 6 months with 41% success.. Their stop is at 1.44 .. They are already short but I intend to place it safer and wait for a rise.. or enter short at 1.375 or so should the price not rise high enough..
 
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