Forex Day Trader's Thread

I do believe there is a good chance for the EUR/USD to make it back up to the 1.5500 area.
Just a bit of a guess though.
 
hwsteele said:
I do believe there is a good chance for the EUR/USD to make it back up to the 1.5500 area.
Just a bit of a guess though.
Click to expand...

Agreed. At least for a few weeks (till Obama's speech?), fundamental news in UK and US will be much worse than in Europe. Besides CHF, most of the papers I am reading seem to imply that the eurozone will suffer less from the recession than most other economies.
Don't know if it's true or not but, as it's what the market seems to think, it may be possible to turn that into a profit :)
 
I read that the German economy could contract by up to -6% and be the "worst crisis in the history of the German Republic".. These are the words of the former economic minister as he told the current minister to stop pretending. Also, Germans have a long history of fudging economic data.. They fudged their GDP figures in Q1 2008 for example.. The media in Germany is probably the most untrustworthy in the western world save for possibly Sweden. It basically only exists to tell the Germans what they want to hear. There's very little in the way of objective journalism in Germany. There's the approved view and everyone else is a crackpot..

I'd have a hard time believing BBC news as well.. They've been drooling at the mouth at the prospect of finally selling out to the Germans..

Here's the order in which major first world economies will recover imho

Japan
USA
Eurozone
UK

We all basically have the same problems but the ease at which economic authority can be directed by the USA outweighs the Eurozone authority over individual countries. Japan, well they just have their act together far better than our debtor nations don't they?? the UK will suffer from a lack of fund repatriation.. Britons are selling their GBP for Euros as we speak. However, this should cause a short-term boom in exports unlike Europe.. but i fthe switch is made to the Euro all that will go out the window.. It would be kind of like selling yoru long-term stocks when they'd been devalued by 45%. You've already lost trillions of pounds of wealth and if they switch to the Euro it will never come back again.. This would be the ultimate stab in the back but I wouldn't put it past them ..

People I really respect see the Euro going to mid 1.50s and then utterly plummeting to the 1.teens or 1.20s when the reality of the economic situation sets in..
 
From a strictly tech stand point I believe you are right with the decline back to the 1.20s or a bit lower after we see the high in the retracement.
 
Euro / GBP

euro.. and gbp are preparing for heavy fall.. against usd.

this whole .. euro run up in december to 1.47 is just what you can expect in december..

but tighten.. your..self.. now.. maximum.. 1 week to wait..

enjoy
 
RidderTrade said:
euro.. and gbp are preparing for heavy fall.. against usd.

this whole .. euro run up in december to 1.47 is just what you can expect in december..

but tighten.. your..self.. now.. maximum.. 1 week to wait..

enjoy
Click to expand...

euro currency down quite sharply now

have fun
 
You could go long or short today and with a big enough stop loss make profits.. This volatility is really crazy.
 
I am using GBP account. It may be not good time to trade EUR/USD for me now. I perfer trade GDP pairs as GDP is going down a lot...
 
Does anyone have an explanation for why GBP rose so much against EUR yesterday (about 3 pence at one stage)? End of year position closing?
 
Arbu said:
Does anyone have an explanation for why GBP rose so much against EUR yesterday (about 3 pence at one stage)? End of year position closing?
Click to expand...

I heard that a major US investment bank sold GBP/USD from 1.47 to 1.435 at the 11AM NY fix and a Swiss bank bought it back up again on razor thin volumes. I heard on the EUR/GBP side that end of year profit taking was causing a EUR selloff.
 
Pippy5000 said:
I heard that a major US investment bank sold GBP/USD from 1.47 to 1.435 at the 11AM NY fix and a Swiss bank bought it back up again on razor thin volumes. I heard on the EUR/GBP side that end of year profit taking was causing a EUR selloff.
Click to expand...

If someone is selling just because they have to "book" a profit at the end of a period, it ought to be logical for them to buy as soon as the following period starts. They didn't sell because they thought the position was bad, and so they probably still believe in it. So I've got my eye on a EUR rally tomorrow. Trade should be thin again.
 
we will see.

1.47 was the 61.8% retracement.. from the decline from 1.61 to 12x in the euro/usd
 
If someone is selling just because they have to "book" a profit at the end of a period, it ought to be logical for them to buy as soon as the following period starts. They didn't sell because they thought the position was bad, and so they probably still believe in it. So I've got my eye on a EUR rally tomorrow. Trade should be thin again.
Click to expand...

Well bad economic news has already been baked into the Euro price. There's a news event today and the news is expected to be Euro negative. Euro trading 1.385.. If this level doesn't hold Euro could tank and test 1.363 .. That's where I'll buy .. I'll stop everything out at 1.358 which is protected by support at SMA2 and SMA4 on the dailies. SMA3 not seen until 1.3128

We're seeing general USD strength in JPY and CHF pairs as well as USD/CHF has just broken an hourly trendline..
 
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