Forex Day Trader's Thread

on the hourlies for EUR/JPY, there is a bullish cross on the MACD (12,26) and the next major support is at the 23.6% fibonacci line of 127.28 ( on my chart anyway)
 
Use the most recent swing lows and highs to draw the fib levels.. I got it right on my daily charts.. bounced right off it yesterday..
 
I don't see a bullish cross on the hourlies either .. MACD is making an attempt to cross but still has a way to go and I show spot trading pretty far below all SMA..
 
I see.. he was drawing the fib from the Jan low to recent high on the dailies.. yes, there could be a little trouble getting through at 127.7 the previous swing low at 126.5 is next major support.. in fact it's the only support before 124.8
 
132.80(M) Hrly Res, April 14 Flat On A Failure
132.00(M) Hourly High Apr 16 Sell a Failure, Buy Break
130.70(M) Hourly High Apr 17 Stop On A Break Above
126.45(M) Mar 30 Low Take Profit
126.05(M) Feb 26, Mar 10 Highs Buy A Bounce, Sell Break
125.45(M) Daily Low Mar 13 Cover On A Bounce
 
sorry lads, i was looking at my chart, realised the data included the weekend asia trading (sunday evening) and that distorted the moving averages. It is in place now
 
is it just me or is there a head and shoulders formation on the EUR/JPY dailiies. If you look at it between 23rd March 09 and now.
 
no, that formation is not a head and shoulders .. the shoulders need to have equal lows..
 
hs.bmp


this was a head and shoulders on the Cable hourlies than ended up breaking south like it was supposed to


Note the excellent resistance provided by the previous neckline.. and shoulder line.. Great spots for short entry points..
 
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yeah apparently not since those don't have equal lows on the chart I showed :LOL:

maybe the shoulders need to have equal(ish) highs. I'm the sure the rules are available somewhere on the internet .. but that EUR/JPY 4hr doesn't look like one.. it's all over the place..
 
if you wana see a true head and sholders and its effect, load up a daily dow chart and look about a year ago!
 
The question is.. how hard is it to get back up once you fall out of the head and shoudlers pattern.. looks like it's tried 4 times to get back up and can't do it..
 
"The head and shoulders pattern is generally regarded as a reversal pattern and it is most often seen in uptrends. It is also most reliable when found in an uptrend as well. Eventually, the market begins to slow down and the forces of supply and demand are generally considered in balance. Sellers come in at the highs (left shoulder) and the downside is probed (beginning neckline.) Buyers soon return to the market and ultimately push through to new highs (head.) However, the new highs are quickly turned back and the downside is tested again (continuing neckline.) Tentative buying re-emerges and the market rallies once more, but fails to take out the previous high. (This last top is considered the right shoulder.) Buying dries up and the market tests the downside yet again. Your trendline for this pattern should be drawn from the beginning neckline to the continuing neckline. (Volume has a greater importance in the head and shoulders pattern in comparison to other patterns. Volume generally follows the price higher on the left shoulder. However, the head is formed on diminished volume indicating the buyers aren't as aggressive as they once were. And on the last rallying attempt-the left shoulder-volume is even lighter than on the head, signaling that the buyers may have exhausted themselves.) New selling comes in and previous buyers get out. The pattern is complete when the market breaks the neckline. (Volume should increase on the breakout.)"

Head and Shoulders
 
This is exactly the sort of high-probability sell stop we should be identifying.. as soon as it breaks that neckline it scoots down 60 quick pips and is never able to get back above despite rallies in equities. Imagine if equities had gone negative friday!
 
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