Forex Analysis by LiteForex

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AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend
The AUD/USD pair is strongly growing during the last week, and the main driver of the increase is the uncertainty in the further USA monetary policy.
Yesterday the key issue was the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis James Bullard’s speech, after which the pair managed to break the resistance level of 0.7780 and reached March maximum. According to Bullard, the main FRS problem is the inflation level in the country, which doesn’t meet the US regulator’s plans to increase the interest rate this year. The FRS official added that it’s difficult to reach the target of 2%, and the fall of the treasury bonds yields is connected with the inflation risks. However, Bullard highlighted the good employment YoY data and accented, that he expected the more positive statistics in the future.
Today the traders should pay attention to the Personal Spending data publication in the USA. The index is the key inflation indicator, and the weak data can support the pair greatly.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart the pair consolidated above the level of 0.7680. Bollinger Bands are pointed upwards, as the price range stays the same, which reflects the development of the upward trend. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, keeping the buy signal. Stochastic entered the oversold area.
Support levels: 0.7675, 0.7637, 0.7610, 0.7575.
Resistance levels: 0.7712, 0.7740, 0.7765.

Trading scenario
Long positions can be opened at the current price with targets at 0.7715, 0.7755 and stop loss at 0.7655. Implementation period: 1-3 days.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 0.7655 with the target at 0.7580 and stop loss 0.7685. Implementation period: 1-3 days.


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XAG/USD: general analysis

Current trend
Silver has been weakening during the last months, and last week has almost reached the 2-month minima at the area of 16.20-16.50. Other precious metals, gold and platinum, are trading with the same dynamics. This decrease is characterized by the simultaneous fall of the US dollar. Why the traders aren’t using the precious metals as a safe haven? Take a look at the main currency pairs’ dynamics, especially commodity ones. During the last 4-6 weeks all the commodity currencies have been growing. Canadian, European and the UK currency grew due to the tightening of its regulators’ rhetoric. The AUD was supported by the growth of the copper and iron ore prices. In the most of these countries the growth of the governments bonds’ yields can be seen, and it attracts the additional investors’ recourses and decreases the investors’ interest of the precious metals.
Last week as a result silver fell to the strong support level, which consist of two daily channels borders: the lower border of the blue 18-month channel and the upper border of the 1-year black channel.
Today the key data, which will be published, are: US Markit Manufacturing PMI at 16:00 (GMT+2), which is expected to be slightly positive, the Unemployment Rate at 11:00 (GMT+2) in the EU (slight decrease by 0.1% is expected).
The growth of silver within the correction from the strong support level is expected in the next two days.

Support and resistance
Support levels: 16.45, 16.00, 15.60, 15.00.
Resistance levels: 16.80, 17.10, 17.35.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened at the current price with the targets at 16.80, 17.10 and stop loss at 16.25.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 16.45 with the targets at 16.00, 15.60, stop loss is at 16.90.
Implementation period: 2-3 days.


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EUR/USD: the Independence Day calmed the market

Current trend
On Monday the pair was corrected due to the strong USA Markit Manufacturing PMI publication, which exceeded the expectation in June and reached the level of 57.8 points (the most significant growth from 2014).
At the moment the pair is trading within the range of 1.3700–1.1345, as the market is calm due to the Independence Day celebrating in the USA. The market will activate on Wednesday, after the EU Retail Sales and USA FOMC Minutes publication. The Minutes can clear the further intentions of the regulator. The investors are sure that the monetary policy will be tightened in the future, as it was confirmed by the FRS officials, including the head of the FRS Janet Yellen, but the specific time of the interest rate increase is unknown.

Support and resistance
From the technical point of view, the pair can be corrected too, as the price is around the upper border of a strong sideways channel. In such conditions the decrease can develop to the area of the middle line of Bollinger Bands 1.1250 and further, to 1.1190 (Fibonacci correction 23.6%) and to 1.1100 (area of crossing with the Fibonacci fan line 38.2%). The possibility of the downward correction is confirmed by the technical indicators. The MACD histogram consolidated in the positive zone. Stochastic is leaving the overbought area and forms a sell signal. The growth can restore if the price consolidates above the level of 1.1440 with the targets at 1.1530 and 1.1610.
Support levels: 1.2500, 1.1190, 1.1100, 1.1050.
Resistance levels: 1.1440, 1.1530, 1.1610.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened at the current price with the targets at 1.1250, 1.1190 and stop loss at 1.1390.
If the price is set above the level of 1.1440, the long positions can become relevant with the targets at 1.1530, 1.1610 and stop loss at 1.1400.


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WTI Crude Oil: general review

Current trend
Yesterday WTI quotes dropped by over 3% to the level of 45.00 after it was announced that OPEC states had increased the volume of exported oil by 450K barrels to 25.92 mln barrels a day. The data from API released by the end of the trading session showed the decrease of US commercial reserves by 5.76 mln barrels a week. Investors reacted to it with active purchases of oil futures which helped WTI rate return to the level of 46.00.
Today market players are waiting for the official data from the US Department of Energy on weekly changes of oil reserves (17:00 GMT+2). They are expected to reduce by 2.283 mln barrels per week against growth by 0.118 mln barrels in the previous week. The confirmation of the forecast or bigger decrease than expected m support oil prices in the short term. If the data shows smaller reduction of reserves, oil quotes may resume falling.

Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, technical indicators show that the fall tendency remains: Bollinger Bands are directed downwards, and the volumes of MACD histogram are reducing in the positive zone. Downward movement may continue after the price consolidates below 45.51. In this case the sellers will try to drop the rate to 44.53-43.60. If the buyers manage to increase the rate above 46.11, growth may continue to 46.85.
Support levels: 45.51, 44.53, 43.60.
Resistance levels: 46.11, 46.85, 47.80.

Trading tips
Sell positions may be opened below 45.51 with targets at 44.53, 43.60 at stop-loss at 46.00.
Buy positions may be opened above the level of 46.11 with targets at 46.85, 47.80 and stop-loss at 45.70.

 

[LiteForexNews]

FTSE: technical analysis

FTSE, D1
On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below the EMA14, EMA65 that start turning down, but above the EMA130 and SMA200 that turned horizontally. The RSI is about to test its most recent support near the border of the oversold zone. The Composite keeps forming a Bullish divergence with the price.
FTSE, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI is about to retest its longer MA from below. The Composite is falling.

Key levels
Support levels: 7290.5 (local lows), 7213.6 (May lows), 7165.0 (April gap).
Resistance levels: 7371.0 (local highs), 7438.0 (March highs), 7452.9 (local highs).

Trading tips
The price is falling along its short-term descending trendline. A breakdown of local lows would allow the fall to continue.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 7290.5 with targets at 7213.6, 7165.0 and stop-loss at 7321.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 7371.0 with targets at 7438.0, 7452.9 and stop-loss at 7333.1. Validity – 3-5 days.

 

[LiteForexNews]

EUR/USD: general review

Current trend
Last week the pair tested the level of *1.1440 but is still unable to consolidate above it.
On Friday the market showed a generally positive reaction to the June data on the US labor market (the number of workplaces increased by 222K), although the unemployment rate grew by 4.4%, and the annual hourly salary remained on the level of 2.5%. Based on this data, the price corrected once again, but it is still unclear whether the fall will be serious. This will to a great extent depend on the speech by FOMC head Janet Yellen in the Congress with a report on the fiscal policy for six months. On Wednesday she will present the report to the Financial Services Committee of the House of Representatives, and on Thursday – to the Banking and Construction Committee of the US Senate. The market will wait for details on further monetary policy, terms, and volumes of reduction of FOMC balance, as well as the number of interest rate increases this year.

Support and resistance
Technically the key level for the “bulls” remains *1.1440. Its breakout will give open the way of growing to 1.1530 and 1.1600. Serious correction to the levels of 1.1190 (Fibo correction 23.6%), 1.1100 (crossing with Fibo fan at 38.2%) and 1.1040 (Fibo correction 38.2%) will be possible after the price consolidates below 1.1300 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands. Technical indicators don't give a clear picture. Stochastic is directed upwards, but MACD histogram is calm in the positive zone. Moreover, the histogram and the chart have differences indicating possible future decrease of the price.
Support levels: 1.1310, 1.1100, 1.1040.
Resistance levels: 1.1440, 1.1530, 1.1600.

Trading tips
In this situation long positions may be opened if the price consolidates above 1.1440 with targets at *1.1530 and 1.1600 and stop-loss at 1.1400.
If the price consolidates below 1.1300 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands, short positions may be opened with targets at *1.1190 and 1.1100 and stop-loss at 1.1330.

 

[LiteForexNews]

Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend
Brent oil continues to trade in the wide downward channel. The price broke through the moving average line of Bollinger Bands and is moving to June minimums at 44.80.
The market is still negative and does not believe that the balance of supply and demand will be restored soon taking into account growing oil production in the USA. Yesterday's statements by the head of OPEC Mohammed Barkindo about the reduction of oil production by over 106% by cartel members kept the price around the middle line of Bollinger Bands (47.00), but today the price started to fall again. In the evening investors are waiting for the API report on the US oil reserves. The growth of the indicator may slow down the fall of the prices.

Support and resistance
Technically the price is trying to move from the middle line of Bollinger Bands to June minimums (44.80) and further to the lower border of the channel (42.70). In case the middle line of Bollinger Bands is broken out and the price consolidates above 47.60 (Fibo correction 23.6% for the medium term trend), upward correction to the levels of 49.35 (correction 38.2%, upper line of Bollinger Bands) and 50.60 (gathering of corrections 23.6% and 50.0%) may be expected. Technical indicators don't provide a clear signal. Stochastic is trying to reverse near the oversold zone, and MACD histogram is growing in the negative zone.
Support levels: 46.00, 44.80, 42.70.
Resistance levels: 47.60, 49.35, 50.60.

Trading tips
In the current situation short positions may be opened below 46.00 with targets at 44.80, 42.70 and stop-loss at 46.50.
In case the price reverses and breaks out the level of 47.60, long positions may be opened with targets at 49.35, 50.60 and stop-loss at 47.20.

 

[LiteForexNews]

WTI Crude Oil: general review

Current trend
WTI quotes are growing after the release of initial data from API indicating that more considerable reduction of US oil reserves as expected. According to the report, during the week they reduced by 8.13 mln barrels. This helped WTI gain 2.75% and increase to the level of 46.00.
Official data from the US Department of Energy on weekly changes in commercial oil reserves are due today at 16:30 (GMT+2). If they indicate higher reduction of reserves and oil production in the USA, WTI will gain considerable support. If oil reserves reduce but the level of production remains unchanged or increases, WTI will get under pressure once again. Investors are waiting for an effect from OPEC+ agreement of the reduction of oil production, and any news about its increase in this situation may lead to the fall of oil quotes.

Support and resistance
Technical indicators show that WTI growth potential is preserved. Bollinger Bands diverge confirming the upward trend. The volumes of MACD histogram are actively growing in the positive zone. Growth may continue after the resistance level of 46.11 is broken through. If the buyers manage to consolidate above it, growth will continue to 46.85. If not, one may expect downward correction to the middle line of Bollinger Bands (44.80).
Support levels: 45.51, 44.53, 43.75.
Resistance levels: 46.11, 46.85, 47.80.

Trading tips
Buy positions may be opened above 46.11 with targets at 46.85 and stop-loss at 45.85. In case the price breaks out and consolidates above 46.85, the next target of the buyers will be 47.80.
Sell positions may be opened below 45.51 with targets at 44.53 and stop-loss at 45.80.

 

[LiteForexNews]

NZD/USD: general review

Current trend

The key event of the previous day was the speech of Janet Yellen before the US Congress. The head of FOMC pointed out positive tendencies in the US economy and stated the regulator was planning to increase interest rates before the end of the year. Yellen's comments did not lead to considerable strengthening of USD, but the pair of NZD/USD dropped without consolidating above the resistance level of 0.7350 that it has been trying to break out for two years.

Today New Zealand published the data on industrial PMI. The fall of the value from 58.5 to 56.2 basis points and the comments by the head of FOMC may lead to the reversal of the instrument today.

Friday is rich in macroeconomic data from the USA. Statistics is expected to be positive for the US currency and this will put considerable pressure on the pair.
Support and resistance

On the D1 chart the instrument moved from the resistance level of 0.7330. Bollinger Bands have corrected sideward, while the price range has slightly broadened indicating the continuation of the current trend. MACD histogram is in thee positive zone maintaining a weak buy signal. Stochastic is approaching the oversold zone.

Support levels: 0.7285, 0.7250, 0.7210, 0.7170.
Resistance levels: 0.7330, 0.7370, 0.7400.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened at the current price with targets at 0.7275, 0.7250 and stop-loss at 0.7340. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 0.7345 with target at 0.7395 and stop-loss at 0.7320. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

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Forex Analytics by LiteForex. EUR/USD: Fibonacci analysis

On the H4 chart the price failed to consolidate below the level of 1.1400 (correction 23.6%) but may resume attempts in the near future. Breaking through the level of 1.1400 near the crossing with the line of the upper fan at 38.2% and the 23.6% curve may lead to further correction to the level of 1.1345 (correction 23.6%, middle line of Bollinger Bands for D1). An important level for the "bulls" is 1.1487. After consolidating above it, the pair may enter long-term growth.

On the D1 chart the price remains within the upper trend and is testing the level of 1.1470. After breaking through it, the pair may continue growing to 1.1540 and 1.1600. Otherwise it may fall to the levels of 1.1340 (middle line of Bollinger Bands and correction 38.2% for H4) and 1.1255 (correction 23.6%). Gradual growth may continue as Stochastic is trying to reverse upwards.

Main scenario

Buy positions look more preferable, but they should be opened after the price consolidates above 1.1470 with targets at 1.1540 and 1.1600. Stop-loss should be placed at 1.1420.

Alternative scenario

Sell positions may become relevant after the price consolidates below 1.1400 with targets at 1.1340, 1.1255 and stop-loss at 1.1450.

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AUD/USD: the pair has reached its limit

Current trend

In the second half of July the rate of the Australian currency against USD rapidly grew. Within several days the pair gained over 350 points having broken through a number of key resistance levels. The pair has been moving upwards almost without downward corrections which shows considerable growth in the volumes of long positions. The main catalyst of this movement was yet another negative data from the USA, FOMC comments on possible postponing of monetary policy tightening, beneficial fundamental background from Australia, and stability of RBA monetary policy.

Last week weak labor market, inflation, and retail sales releases were published in the USA. Australia responded with strong data on consumer confidence index and consumer expectations. Positive prospects and current indicators included into the RBA minutes give AUD additional support.

Support and resistance

Today the pair tested a new local maximum and a key resistance level of 0.7945 and consolidated below this point. Later on the pair is likely to move from rapid growth stage to the consolidation stage. Historical data shows that the pair is widely trading in the side range. In this situation side channel may be limited by key support and resistance levels at 0.7800 and 0.7945 respectively. In the medium term the pair may reach the level of 0.8000, but this will be followed by deep downward correction. Investors have already started to move away from long positions, and in the future it will happen more often and will become the main factor of pressure on the pair. Technical indicators continue to give a sell signal, and MACD shows the preservation of long positions.

Support levels: 0.7860, 0.7800, 0.7750, 0.7720, 0.7680, 0.7650, 0.7610, 0.7580, 0.7400, 0.7250.
Resistance levels: 0.7945, 0.7980, 0.8000, 0.8070, 0.8150.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened from key resistance levels at 0.7945, 0.8000 with target at 0.7580 and short stop-loss at 0.8060.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

 

[LiteForexNews]

AUD/USD: general review

Current trend

Along with CAD, Australian dollar has been showing the best results against USD this week. The pair AUD/USD has grown by almost 200 points from the beginning of the week and yesterday reached the level of May 2015.
US dollar that has been weakening for the second week in a row due to bad macroeconomic indicators (especially inflation and labor market) is also under pressure from the statement of FOMC Chair Janet Yellen and her colleagues. Moreover, on Tuesday USD received one more major negative impulse after the Republicans and Trump administration failed to pass the health care bill that threw the President's ability to implement the reforms into question.

On Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia published the minutes of a meeting on the fiscal policy in which the members of the regulator confirmed economic growth in the second quarter and the improvement of the situation of the labor market.
Yesterday's release from the US real estate market was positive, and USD showed minor growth remaining under pressure of the political situation. As a result, this week the pair broke through the important support level of 0.7800, 0.7900 and 0.7950, as well as 2-year maximum on the level 0.7830. Tonight's employment indicators and unemployment data from Australia were worse than outlooks which caused the pair to start correction.

Today the market is waiting for releases from the USA: industrial PMI from FRB Philadelphia that may drop by 3.6 points and initial and repeated jobless claims with expected minor decrease. All indicators are due at 14:30 (GMT+2).
The main scenario for today is the continuation of the pair's growth.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.7710, 0.7750, 0.7830, 0.7900. *
Resistance levels: 0.7950, 0.8010, 0.8090, 0.8160.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 0.8010, 0,8090 and stop-loss at 0.7870.
Short positions may be opened from the level of 0.7900 with targets at 0.7830, 0.7750 and stop-loss at 0.8020.

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[LiteForexNews]

AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Last week the AUD/USD pair was growing due to the positive Australian macroeconomical data publications and the USD weakness, caused by the political instability in the USA. On Friday the trade instrument lost around 80 points, but this fall was due to the closing of the profitable positions below the key resistance level of 0.8000. Today AUD has a high potential to grow and can break the key level of 0.8000 in the nearest future, as the positive changes in the employment market and the growth of the economical active population in Australia promise the growth of the consumer activity and the accelerating of the economical growth in the country.
Today the investors should pay attention on the PMI index in the USA. The publications are not expected to affect the pair, and the further upward trend will be developing today. The nearest key issues of the week are the RBA trimmed mean CPI and the Consumer Price Index publication in Australia.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart the pair is growing alongside the upper Bollinger Band, reaching the key resistance level of 0.8000. The indicator is pointed upwards, as the price range is significantly widen, which can confirm the development of the upward trend. MACD histogram reached the maximum in the positive zone, keeping a buy signal. Stochastic is ready to leave the overbought area, which will be the signal to open short positions.

Support levels: 0.7910, 0.7870, 0.7810, 0.7760, 0.7725.
Resistance levels: 0.7965, 0.8000, 0.8065, 0.8090.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the current price with the target at 0.8055 and stop loss at 0.7910. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 0.7905 with the target at 0.7840 and stop loss at 0.7935. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

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USD/CHF: general analysis

Current trend

Since last week the pair has been trading around last May minimum due to the poor macroeconomical statistics and the decreasing possibility of the tightening of the USA Fed’s monetary policy. The price has broken the strong support level of 0.9510 and is still trading below this level. The US is falling and is under pressure of the macroeconomical data and political situation. The president of the Swiss National Bank Thomas Jordan commented that the franc was “highly overpriced” and the central bank would support negative interest rates.

On Monday the US Markit Manufacturing (53.2) and Services (54.2) PMI was published, which have grown against the previous period, and the pair was slightly corrected. It grew to the level of 0.9476 (+0.14%). However, generally, the market is waiting for the FRS Meeting on Wednesday, when the interest rate decision will be taken, and for the USA GDP report on Friday.

Support and resistance

The pair is trading around lower border of Bollinger Bands, which are widened and are pointing downwards, which reflects a “bearish” trend. However, CCI is in the oversold area, the signal line is pointed upwards; the breakout of the level of –100 will give a buy signal. RSI has left the oversold area and is at the level of 32.4, also pointed upwards, giving a buy signal.

Support levels: 0.94425, 0.93750, 0.92926.
Resistance levels: 0.94897, 0.95391, 0.96007, 0.96998, 0.98586, 1.00071.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened if the price is set above the level of 0.94897 with the targets at 0.95159 and 0.96007.
Short positions will become relevant after the breakdown of the level of 0.94425 with the targets at 0.93750 and 0.92969.

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USD/JPY: general review

Current trend

Yesterday the Fed announced its decision on the interest rate. As expected, the value of 1.25% remained unchanged, but the cautious tone of the follow-up statement disappointed the investors that started to aggressively sell USD. As a result, the pair USD/JPY lost 100 points. At the same time, the US regulator still considers it possible that interest rates may be increased until the end of the year. Moreover, the Fed stated it intended to start reducing the volume of aggregated assets in September.

The key event of today will be the release of data on jobless claims by the US Department of Labor. The expected growth of initial jobless claims from 233K to 241K will lead to further fall of the pair.

Support and resistance

On the D1 chart the instrument is trading around the lower border of Bollinger Bands. The indicator is turning sideways, while the price range has widened indicating the continuation of the current trend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone with its volumes reducing, and the signal line is directed downwards which is a signal for opening sell positions. Stochastic does not give clear signal for entering the market.

Support levels: 110.70, 110.35, 109.90, 109.40.
Resistance levels: 111.70, 112.15, 112.55, 112.95, 113.50.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the current level with targets at 110.50, 110.35 and stop-loss at 111.40. The period of implementation is 1-3 days.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 111.75 with targets at 112.35 and stop-loss at 111.50. The period of implementation is 1-3 days.

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Brent: technical analysis

Brent, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is growing along the upper line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above the EMA14, EMA65, EMA130 and just below the SMA200, which is horizontal. The RSI is approaching its strong resistance region. The Composite is growing having failed its longer MA.

Brent, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above its moving averages that start turning up. The RSI is trying to leave the overbought zone. The Composite is breaking down its longer MA. Both indicators have formed a Bearish divergence with the price.

Key levels

Support levels: 49.95 (March lows), 48.75 (local lows), 47.70 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 52.60 (June 2016 highs), 54.20 (February lows), 54.55 (May highs).

Trading tips

The price is approaching its medium-term descending trendline and the SMA200. There is a chance of a downward rebound.
Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 49.95, 48.75, 47.70 and stop-loss at 52.15. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 52.60 with targets at 54.20, 54.55 and stop-loss at 51.85. Validity – 3-5 days.

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XAU/USD: general review

Current dynamics

Precious metal receives support from a demand from Chinese consumers, who are actively investing to hedge risks, in particular against falling property prices. So, according to the latest data, Chinese consumption increased by 10% to 545.2 tons.
Another factor of support for the XAU/USD pair is geopolitical risks. Donald Trump's advisers are trying to develop new sanctions against China. According to the American leader, China is engaged in unscrupulous trade practices and receives billions of profits, undervaluing the rate of the yuan. The aggravation of relations occurred when China did not do enough to restrain the development of the DPRK nuclear program and the launch of a new intercontinental missile.

Support and resistance

Gold on the H4 chart is trading near the support level of 5/8 Murray (1265.65). If the pair XAU/USD breaks this level, then the next target for the fall will be the level of 1250.02. If the price consolidates above the previous high of 1270.71, the target of growth will be the level of 1281.28.

Resistance levels: 1270.71.
Support levels: 1265.65.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the level of 1270.71 with the target at 1281.28 and a stop-loss at the level of 1262.00.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

 

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NZD/USD: the pair is moving to correction

Current trend

NZD remained in the upward trend against USD due to rapid fall of the latter. US dollar has been decreasing for several months in view of negative fundamental data and unstable monetary policy of the Fed. NZD, on the contrary, experiences excessive demand after the release of strong statistics and due to the stability of New Zealand monetary policy. By now, the price has entered the consolidation stage after considerable growth and is trading within the 0.7530-0.7455 range. This week special attention should be paid to labor market data and main indexes from the USA and the level of unemployment in New Zealand.

Support and resistance

In the medium term the volume of demand is expected to drop due to locking in long positions in the pair NZD/USD. Long downward correction is very likely to form from the current level with target at 0.7420 (lower border of the channel) or below to the key support levels at 0.7335, 0.7275. Technical indicators continue to give a signal for further growth: the volume of long positions in MACD indicator remains on the high level, and Bollinger Bands are still pointing upwards.
Support levels: 0.7455, 0.7420, 0.7335, 0.7275, 0.7250, 0.7200.
Resistance levels: 0.7530, 0.7550, 0.7575, 0.7600, 0.7650.

Trading tips

In the short term sell positions may be opened from the current maximum (in a view of corrective downward movement) with target at 0.7420, 0.7335. Stop-loss may be placed at 0.7590.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

 

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GBP/USD: the upward trend is still strong

Current trend

The British currency continues to go up against US dollar in view of the falling USD rate. Within two trading weeks the pair has been moving within the upward tendency without long corrections which indicates considerable decrease of demand for USD. US fundamental data cannot support the rate of the American currency. This and last week negative statistics was released on a number of macroeconomic indicators, namely construction sector, demand for durable goods, and labor market. The pound, in turn, is supported by strong demand and positive releases by key indexes.

Despite negative data on UK PMI, GBP continues to grow. In the end of the current week special attention should be paid to labor market data and the main US indexes, as well as the decision of the Bank of England on the volumes of economic stimulation program and interest rate. Moreover, the follow-up speech by the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney scheduled for Thursday, may provide additional support for the pound.

Support and resistance

Technically the pair has a reserve of upward movement to the upper border of the upward channel at the level of 1.3450 followed by a long downward tendency. Currently there are no grounds for USD support from the fundamental background and the actions of the US regulator. Technical indicators confirm this tendency: MACD shows the preservation of the high volume of long positions, and Bollinger Bands point upwards.

Support levels: 1.3200, 1.3125, 1.2930, 1.2805, 1.2700, 1.2590.
Resistance levels: 1.3310, 1.3380, 1.3450, 1.3480, 1.3670, 1.3750.

Trading tips
Long positions may be opened from the current level with target at 1.3450 and stop-loss at 1.3100.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

 

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NI225: technical analysis

NI225, D1

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading just below the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is falling having broken down its longer MA. The Composite is approaching its strong support region.

NI225, H4

On the hourly chart, the instrument is falling along the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains just below its moving averages that start turning down. The RSI is approaching the border of the oversold zone. The Composite is falling as well.
Key levels
Support levels: 19889.00 (local lows), 19865.00 (July lows), 19670.00 (March highs).
Resistance levels: 20198.00 (July highs), 20288.00 (June highs), 20550.00 (May 2015 highs).

Trading tips

The price is forming a “contraction triangle” pattern. Positions can be opened after a breakout of either of its borders.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 20198.00 with targets at 20288.00, 20550.00 and stop-loss at 20090.00. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 19865.00 with the target at 19670.00 and stop-loss at 19963.00. Validity – 3-5 days.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/