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USD/CHF: technical analysis

USD/CHF, D1

On the daily chart, the pair is correcting up from the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that start turning down. The RSI is trying to turn up just above the border of the oversold zone. The Composite starts forming a divergence with the price, suggesting a growth possibility.

USD/CHF, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is correcting up from the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI turned up having bounced off the border of the oversold zone. The Composite is turning up as well, showing a divergence with the price.

Key levels

Support levels: 0.9830 (March lows), 0.9780 (December 2015 lows), 0.9710 (February 2010 lows).
Resistance levels: 0.9950 (May 2016 highs), 1.0001 (local highs), 1.0044 (local highs).

Trading tips

The pair is approaching its strong support level near 0.9830. There is a chance of an upward rebound.
Long positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 0.9950, 1.0001, 1.0044 and stop-loss at 0.9830. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.9830 with targets at 0.9780, 0.9710 and stop-loss at 0.9860. Validity – 3-5 days.

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AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

From the beginning of the month the AUD is actively lowering against the USD due to the quite poor macroeconomic data from the Australia, such as the lowering of the April trade balance surplus and the RBA decision to keep the interest rate on the same minimum level.

Last week the new home sales in Australia lowered to this year minima, also the copper and gold prices lowered significantly, as Australia keeps the leading positions on export of these materials. As a result the price reached the 4 month minimum, and only the support zone at the level of 0.7350-0.7400 was strong enough to reverse the pair into the corrections due to the quite controversial traders’ reaction to the positive USA employment market data on Friday. The USD was trading in the narrow flat for the two weeks, but after the publications of these important data, which were better than expected, ended the last week with a significant lowering. The investors’ reaction will probably appear this week.

Today the traders should pay their attention to the 3 and 6 Month Bill Auctions data. Tomorrow the Australia Retail Sales data are worth traders’ attention: the growth of the index to the level of 0.3% is expected.
The development of the correction due to the absence of the important news is expected today.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.7380, 0.7310, 0.7200.
Resistance levels: 0.7570, 0.7530, 0.7490, 0.7440.

Trading scenario

Open long positions at the current price with the target at 0.7440, 0.7490 and stop loss at 0.7360.
Open short positions at the level of 0.7380 with the target at 0.7310, 0.7200 and stop loss 0.7470.
Implementation period: 1-2 days.

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USD/JPY: general review

Current trend
The Japanese yen, together with all commodity currencies, is falling against the US dollar. The pair USD/JPY last week renewed a five-week maximum. The report of the Bank of Japan last Tuesday confirmed the soft monetary policy, weakening the yen, and the positive labor market data from America supported the dollar. As a result, the pair is testing the critical resistance level of 113.30, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci level of the semi-annual fall of the pair.

Today, there are no data from Japan. In the United States at 16:00 (GMT+2) the number of open vacancies in the labor market will be published. It is predicted that the number will decrease by 73K which is not a significant figure, but any diverging from the forecast may impact the movement of the pair. At 19:00 (GMT+2) and at 20:15 (GMT+2) officials of the US Federal Reserve Steven Kaplan and Eric Rosenberg will be speaking.

Support and resistance
Support levels: 112.20, 111.20, 110.20.
Resistance levels: 113.30, 114.00, 115.00.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened at the market price with the target of 114.00, stop-loss – 113.30.
Short positions can be placed at the level of 112.20 with the goal of 111.20, the stop-loss is 113.00.

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NZD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

During the last two weeks the NZD showed the best results among the commodity currencies and assets, which were lowering against the USD. Last week the NZD was supported by the growth of the dairy prices and the increase of the employed, and was trading flat above the level of 0.6865, which is almost the year minimum.
Today the traders are waiting for the key publications from the USA. The Export Price Index and Import Price Index will be published. The export is expected to lower and the import is expected to grow, which will decrease the trade balance. The 10-Year Note Auction data will be published, and the profitability of them is growing form the last August, which is positive for the USD. The Monthly Budget Statement is also expected, but it will affect the price insignificantly.

The NZRB interest rate decision will be published tomorrow, the rate is expected to stay on the minimum level of 1.75%. The Monetary Policy Statement is also expected, which will affect the dynamics of the pair.
The insignificant growth of the pair is expected today.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.6865, 0.6800, 0.6710.
Resistance levels: 0.6910, 0.7000, 0.7075, 0.7170.

Trading scenario

Open long positions at the current price with the target at 0.7000 and stop loss at 0.6870.
Sell the pair from the level of 0.6865 with the target at 0.6800 and stop loss at 0.6900.
Implementation period: 1-2 days.

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AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

The AUD was lowering against the USD due to the list of factors, such as the RBA interest rate decision, the lowering of copper, gold and iron ore, the poor macroeconomical Australian statistics. After a quite long fall the price reversed into the upward correction form the level of 0.7330, which is quite strong support level. The breakout of this level will give a signal for the downward trend to continue.
As for the macroeconomical releases, which can affect the pair, the USA Producer Price Index is worth traders’ attention today (14:30 GMT+2) and the Initial Jobless Claims (14:30 GMT+2). The Producer Price Index is expected to grow to 0.2% in April from -0.1% in the previous month, and the Initial Jobless Claims number will grow to 245K WoW from 238K in the previous week.

Support and resistance

Technically the price consolidated on the black downward channel H4, which has been determining the price for the last two months. On the other hand, the price didn’t reach the lower border of the blue channel D1, which has been supporting the price for a year. This dynamics of the price can reflect the “bullish” mood, but positions of the sellers of the AUD/USD pair are still strong.

Support levels: 0.7310, 0.7270, 0.7200.
Resistance levels: 0.7490, 0.7440, 0.7380.

Trading scenario

Open long positions from the current price with the target at 0.7440 and stop loss at 0.7345.
Open short positions from the level of 0.7310 with the target at 0.7270, 0.7200 and stop loss at 0.7350.
Implementation period: 1-2 days.

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XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend

After the long fall the gold price met the support at the zone of 1210.00-1220.00, after which it reversed to the upward correction. The upper border of the channel D1 (green), which has been supported the price for the 4 months, coincided with the 50% Fibonacci from the last half a year price growth. Despite the strong technical support, the fundamental factors are still pressing the gold: the growth of the US bills yield and the expectations of the USA FRS interest rate rise in the June meeting

Today the market participants are waiting for the USA publications: the Retail Sales and Inflation data (14:30 GMT+2). The Retail Sales index is expected to grow to 0.6% in April from 0.5% in the previous month.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1210.00, 1190.00, 1170.00.
Resistance levels: 1230.00, 1250.00, 1265.00.

Trading scenario

Open long positions at the current price with the target at 1230.0 0.1250.00 and stop loss at 1210.00.
Open short positions from 1210.00 with the target at 1190.00, 1170.00 and stop loss at 1230.00.
Implementation period: 1-3 days

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Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

The report of the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy showed the reduction of oil reserves in the USA by over 5.2 mln barrels which gave the prices stong growth momentum. The strengthening was supported by the monthly OPEC report published on Thursday. The main idea of the report was that the member states of the cartel and external exporters have reached consensus on the extension of OPEC+ agreement. The final decision on this matter is expected to be made in Vienna at the meeting of all member countries.

No important releases for the instrument are due today. One may pay attention to Manufacturing PMI from New York that comes before federal data (with a positive outlook). More attention should be paid to tomorrow's report of IEA on the process of fulfillment of OPEC+. During the week reports by API and EIA may also be of interest. as they may confirm or disprove the tendency for further reduction of US oil reserves.
The most likely forecast for the near future will be the continuation of upward correction of oil.

Support and resistance

Technically the price broke through the levels 50.00, 50.90, lower border of channel H4 (black) and 51.50. After consolidation above this zone one may expect the growth to continue to higher targets.
Support levels: 51.50, 50.90, 50.00.
Resistance levels: 52.60, 53.00, 53.75.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 52.60, 53.00 and stop-loss at 51.50.
Alternatively, buy positions may be opened from the level of 51.50 with targets at 50.90, 50.00 and stop-loss at 52.10.
The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

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USD/CHF: general review

Current trend

Since the middle of the previous week the pair has been in the downward correction. Both recent data from the USA (retail sales and CPI) and Switzerland (CPI and manufacturers price index) were quite weak. However, the investors worried more about the fate of the US currency which pushes the pair down. Additional interest of the market to USD is explained by the expectations of June FOMC meeting and its interest rate decision. In these terms any signs of slowdown in the US economy put considerable pressure on USD, as the market worries about postponing the interest rate increase.

Today no important statistics from Switzerland is expected. From the USA the market is waiting for the data on the number of new construction permits and houses under construction in April. The most important release will be the volume of industrial output in the USA: the indicator is expected to fall from 0.5% to 0.4% which may cause further decrease of the pair.

Support and resistance

Technically, the pair has been moving in almost horizontal range between the borders of green channel D1 and the middle line for four months. The balance line of the channel is the level of parity with USD (1.0000).

Support levels: 0.9930, 0.9850, 0.9780, 0.9700.
Resistance levels: 1.0000, 1.0050, 1.0110, 1.0180.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened at the market price with target at 0.9850 and stop-loss at 0.9950.
Alternatively, buy positions may be opened from the level of 1.0000 with targets at 1.0050, 1.0110 and stop-loss at 0.9960.
The period of implementation is 2-3 days.

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GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

On Tuesday GBP experienced volatility after the release of the data on the consumer price index. In March the indicator made 2.7% which considerably exceeds the target level of 2.0%. Investors worried that due to reduced income of households high inflation may lead to the fall of internal demand, that is why the pair went done but soon restored its lost positions. Today's releases included positive data on the unemployment rate (that dropped to 4.6% in March) and the average salary (the indicator with bonuses increased by 2.4%).

Generally, the pair is consolidating between the levels of 1.2865 and 1.2990. No considerable difficulties in the British economy caused by Brexit have been observed yet, and GBP is not weakening. On the other hand, the investors worry that FOMC intends to increase the interest rate, and President Trump states USD is too strong.
Among Wednesday news one may pay attention to the statement by the member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England Haldane that could shed some light on further actions of the British regulator.
The growth of the pair is a forecast for the next two days.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1.2700, 1.2780, 1.2865.
Resistance levels: 1.2990, 1.3040, 1.3110, 1.3200.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 1.2990, 1.3040 and stop-loss at 1.2900.
Alternatively, sell positions may be opened from the level of 1.2865 with target at 1.2780 and stop-loss at 1.2950.

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Brent Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

On Wednesday the Brent Crude Oil price grew, reacting to the API Crude Oil Stocks change that showed the USA resources lowering. The EIA Crude Oil Stocks change, which was published in the Wednesday evening, showed the lowering by 1.753 million barrel in a week. As a result the Brent Crude Oil grew by 1.81% and reached the area of the level of 52.64. The price tried to consolidate above the level for some times, but didn’t succeed, so the price was corrected downwards. It’s hard to increase the price above the level, taking into consideration the global oil surplus problems. After the slight growth of the last days the price entered the downward correction.

The traders are waiting for the further OPEC signals upon the stabilization of the world oil production level. The nearest OPEC meeting is on May, 25 in Vienna.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators reflect the growing influence of the sellers. Bollinger Bands are pointed downwards. MACD histogram is in the positive zone; however its volumes are decreasing confirming the downward trend.
Support levels: 51.20, 50.30, 49.20.
Resistance levels: 52.64, 53.67, 54.44.

Trading scenario

Open short positions below the level of 51.20 with the target at around 50.30 and stop loss at 51.45.
Open long positions above the level of 52.64 with the target at around 53.67 and stop loss at 52.30.

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EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

On Thursday USD stabilized after a fall in the beginning of the week caused by political turmoil in the USA. The US currency was supported by a strong unemployment report. The number of initial jobless claims dropped from 236K to 232K while the experts expected it to grow to 240K. Moreover, manufacturing PMI in Philadelphia suddenly drew from 22.0 to 38.8 points against the negative forecast of 19.9 points.

Currently the possibility of further fall of USD is high as political instability in Washington puts complex pressures on USD. Along with this Trump's impeachment is often mentioned in the media, and macroeconomic statistics becomes secondary.
Today in the second half of the day the market will be waiting for a statement by FOMC representative James Bullard dedicated to the fiscal policy. The comments of the official may have a considerable impact on the dynamics of the pair as the doubts about the growth of interest rates grow every day. Later on the European Commission will publish the data on consumer sentiment index in May. The expected growth of the indicator will strengthen the pair.

Support and resistance

On D1 chart the pair is trading in the upper part of Bollinger Bands. The indicator is directed downwards while the price range remains unchanged which is a ground for the continuation of the current trend. MACD histogram is in the positive zone with its volumes growing and keeping the sell signal. Stochastic is about to leave the overbought zone.

Support levels: 1.1065, 1.1015, 1.0951, 1.0853, 1.0765.
Resistance levels: 1.1132, 1.1183, 1.1246, 1.1310.

Trading tips

Long positions should be opened at the current price with targets at 1.1245 and stop-loss at 1.1038. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.
Short positions could be opened at the level of 1.1036 with target at 1.0945 and stop-loss at 1.1100. The period of implementation is 1-3 days.

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Brent Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

Last week oil prices reached the 4 weeks maximum around 53.50-54.00 USD per barrel. The price was supported by the lowering of the USD, which is weakening due to the USA Administration crisis. The lowering of the US oil recourses also made a positive impact on the price. In addition, the commentaries of the OPEC members leave no doubt that the oil production limitation agreement will be prolonged.
The main upcoming issue in the oil market is the OPEC meeting in Vienna on May, 25. Most likely, the result of the meeting is already taken into account by the investors, and after the publication of the results of the OPEC meeting the traders will fix the profit partially, which will lead to the lowering of the price.

Support and resistance

Technical picture reflects that the price crossed very significant resistance zone — the lower border of the channel D1 (blue), which has been the price growth trend line for the year and a half. Further reaction of the price in this zone will determine the movement dynamics in the nearest future.
Support levels: 53.75, 53.00, 52.60, 51.50.
Resistance levels: 54.40, 55.00, 56.15, 57.20.

Trading scenario

Open long positions at the current price with the target at 54.40, 55.00 and stop loss at 53.70.
Sell at the level of 53.00 with the target at 52.60, 51.50 and stop loss at 53.40.
Implementation period: 2-3 days.

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AUD/USD: общий обзор

Текущая динамика

На фоне отсутствия макроэкономической статистики участники рынка продолжают отыгрывать негативные политические факторы из США и продают американские доллары, результатом чего стал рост курса AUD/USD. За последние сутки пара прибавила 0,55% и поднялась в район 0.7493.
Показания технических индикаторов говорят о том, что покупатели на рынке все ещё сильны. Полосы Боллинджера расходятся, подтверждая восходящую тенденцию. Гистограмма MACD находится в положительной зоне, объёмы её стремительно растут и формируют сигнал на покупку. Пробой уровня 0.7511 будет сигналом к продолжению роста и откроет паре путь к уровню 0.7555. Если попытки закрепиться выше уровня 0.7511 останутся безуспешными, то в таком случае стоит ждать коррекции курса в район средней полосы Боллинджера (0.7450).

Уровни поддержки и сопротивления

Уровни поддержки: 0.7474, 0.7437, 0.7394.
Уровни сопротивления: 0.7511, 0.7555, 0.7587.

Торговые сценарии

Позиции на покупку открывать выше уровня 0.7511 с целями в районе 0.7555, 0.7587 и стоп-лоссом на уровне 0.7485.
Позиции на продажу открывать ниже уровня 0.7474 с целями в районе 0.7437, 0.7394 и стоп-лоссом на уровне 0.7500.

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AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Due to the absence of the macroeconomical statistics the investor continue to react to the negative political factors from the USA and sell the US dollar, which led to the growth of the AUD/USD pair. During the last day the pair strengthened by 0.55% and reached the area of 0.7493.

Technical indicators reflect that the buyers are still strong in the market. Bollinger Bands are diverging, confirming the upward trend. MACD histogram is in the positive zone; its volumes are rapidly growing and forming a buy signal. The breakout of the level 0.7511 will let the price to grow further and reach the level of 0.7555. If the pair cannot consolidate above the level of 0.7511, the correction to the area of middle line of Bollinger Bands (0.7450) will be expected.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.7474, 0.7437, 0.7394.
Resistance levels: 0.7511, 0.7555, 0.7587.

Trading scenario

Open long positions above the level of 0.7511 with the target around 0.7555, 0.7587 and stop loss at 0.7485.
Open short positions below the level of 0.7474 with the target around 0.7437, 0.7394 and stop loss at 0.7500.

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NZD/USD: general review

Current trend

After significant growth in the beginning of the week the pair NZD/USD is demostrating a decrease. Yesterday US dollar had a number of positive moments, and the pair made a short-term attempt to stick at the local maximum. However, the price was quickly reduced by the sellers which caused a new round of correction. The statements by the FOMC member Patrick Harker about the remaining possibility of two interest rate increases this year also had a positive impact on USD rate.

The main event of today will be the publishing of the final MoM of FOMC Open Markets Committee. The market is expected to be highly volatile.

Support and resistance

On D1 chart the pair corrected to the upper border of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is near the zero level, and its volume is minimal.
Support levels: 0.6960, 0.6900, 0.6850, 0.6820.
Resistance levels: 0.7050, 0.7100, 0.7150, 0.7275, 0.7350.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened at the current price with targets at 0.6950 and stop-loss at 0.7030.
Long positions may be opened from 0.7060 with targets at 0.7150 and stop-loss at 0.7030.
The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

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WTI Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

After the fall yesterday the oil tried to grow today. The price has reached the level of 52.00, but then has rapidly lowered to the area of the level of 50.20 due to the commentaries of one of the OPEC representatives, who said that there is no necessity in greater oil production limitation. At the moment the OPEC meeting is held in Vienna, and the results of it will be published today. It is expected, that the parties will come to the agreement, which prolong the world oil production limitation for some more time. The basic variant of the prolongation period is 9 months, but the prolongation by 1 year is not excluded. There is no clear information yet, and the market can react impulsively on the OPEC representatives’ commentaries.
If all the parties come to the agreement of the prolongation by 9 month or more, WTI price will be supported and continue to grow. If not all the parties enter the Agreement or aren’t ready to fulfill the current conditions of the oil production limitation, the lowering of the price is expected.

It’s inappropriate to rely on the technical indicators’ readings at the moment, as the price dynamics depends on the OPEC decision in the nearest future.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 50.53, 49.46, 48.30.
Resistance levels: 52.12, 53.20, 54.00

Trading scenario

Open short positions below the level of 50.53 with the target at around 49.46 and stop loss at 50.70.
Open long positions above the level of 52.12 with the target at around 53.20 and stop loss at 51.80.

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USD/CHF: general review

Current trend

This week the pair USD/CHF was trading in the side corridor between the strong support level of 0.9700 and resistance level of 0.9780. Yesterday US dollar grew in view of positive data on the number of initial jobless claims (the indicator was lower than expected and made up 234K). Negative weekly data for CHF include April trading balance (that fell to 1.968 mln) and the volume of industrial output for Q1 2017 (that reduced to 4.6%). Nevertheless, CHF was stable against te growing USD. Having tested the level of 0.9700 once again, the pair failed to break through it.

Today additional volatility to the pair may be given by the US GDP data for Q1 2017 (that is to increase by 0.9%) and statistics on the volume of demand for durable goods (in April the indicator may fall by 1.2%). Generally the data is not overally positive for USD, but the pair is unlikely to enter serious correction. It may remain within the horizontal range.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.9700, 0.9640, 0.9550.
Resistance levels: 0.9780, 0.9850, 0.9930, 1.0000.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the market price with target at 0.9780 and stop-loss at 0.9640.
Alternatively, one may open sell positions at the level of 0.9780 with target at 0.9700 and stop-loss at 0.9860.

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GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

The rate of the pound rapidly fell against USD in the end of the previous week dropping by 230 points. The pair closed trading at the level of 1.2808 which is the lowest closing price in the previous four weeks. The fall of GBP was caused by the polls taken in view of the upcoming UK election. The positions of the conservative wavered after Manchester events.

Last week the price failed to overcome an important level of 1.3030 which would have given the "bulls" an additional impulse. Today is a holiday in the UK and USA, therefore no activity in the market should be expected due to low liquidity. This should keep the pair GBP/USD within the narrow range and in the consolidation regime.

In the USA FOMC statement on the interest rate was more cautios than expected. The regulator pointed out that the increase of interest rates will depend on the information received by it. Therefore the release of the data on the nonfarm payrolls schedulled in the end of the week shall determine yet another direction for USD. The pound, in turn, may be under pressure in view of the news about another referendum in Scotland on its exit from the UK in case of the victory of the dominant party at the election on June 8.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1.2830, 1.2800.
Resistance levels: 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2930, 1.2975, 1.3015, 1.3045.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the level of 1.2790 with target at 1.2700 and stop-loss at 1.2820.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 1.2850 with targets at 1.2900 and stop-loss at1.2820.
The period of implementation is 2-5 days.

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USD/CAD: general review

Current trend

The growth of Canadian dollar strengthened after the decision of the Bank of Canada on the interet rate made last week. As a result the pair reached its six-weeks minimum from which upward correction (purple trend line) started. Right now the movement of the pair is hindered by a stronger trend line — the blue one. The price is likely to meet it between the levels of 1.3535 and 1.3600.
Today the dynamics of the pair may be influenced by the important data from Canada and the USA. The data on the Canadian trading balance and raw materials prices index are due at 14:30 (GMT+2). The information on personal income and expenditure will be published in the USA at the same time.
The most likely scenario for today is the continuation of the pair's growth.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1.3450, 1.3400, 1.3315, 1.3260.
Resistance levels: 1.3535, 1.3600, 1.3700, 1.3790.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 1.3535, 1.3600 and stop-loss at 1.3430.
Alternatively, sell positions may be opened from the level of 1.3426 with targets at 1.3400, 1.3315 and stop-loss at 1.3456.
The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

*Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/

 

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USD/CHF: general review

Current trend

Yesterday the dynamics of the pair USD/CHF was determined by negative values of oth currencies. After Swiss index of leading economic indicators for May appeared to be wore than expected, the pair moved up from the narrow two-weeks flat. But weak data on the consumer confidence index from the USA returned the price of the pair back to the range indicating that it was falsely broken through.
ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment is due today in Switzerland at 10:00 (GMT+2).

PMI Chicago will be published at 15:45 (GMT+2). The data on incompleted sales transactions in the US real estate market is due at 16:00 (GMT+2). FOMC Beige Book Economic Review is due at 20:00 (GMT+2). *
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Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.9700, 0.9640, 0.9550.
Resistance levels: 0.9780, 0.9850, 0.9930, 1.0000.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 0.9700, 0.9640 and stop-loss at 0.9780.
Alternatively, buy positions may be opened from 0.9780 with targets at 0.9850, 0.9930 and stop-loss at 0.9740.

Read more analytic on LiteForex site https://www.liteforex.com/trading/forex-analysis/