For or Against Brexit 2017?

[Forexmospherian]

In my view there is zero chance of that happening and you only have to look at the approach being taken to Greece to know there will be no allowance for any renegotiation of terms.

I personally would have to disagree.

As in the real world - there is no such thing as "equality" - every human being is different an so is every country - and some countries are far more important than other countries. Whether this is right or wrong - that's maybe a different discussion - but countries like the UK carry far more "weight" when it comes to changing any rules compared to countries like Greece.

OK everyone look as Germany as being the so called "boss" in the EU - this might not be the whole story really looking at this report -

https://agenda.weforum.org/2012/06/ranking-the-top-most-competitive-economies-in-europe-2012/

Life and the World ( including the EU ) is constantly facing change.

I would never rule out anything in terms of negotiating - its just that you cannot "cry wolf" too many times ;-)

I am against a Brexit - but Cameron is on a "roll" - maybe he can get Nicola Strurgeon to take on Angela Merkel ..... - it would certainly be good entertainment ( lol)

 

[tomorton]

Brexit will be both good and bad in the short term - loss of eased trade arrangements with Europe, loss of EU support for certain weak sectors, but saving of membership costs and a crowd-pleasing reduction of external political involvement in the UK's legislation etc.

Longer-term, the financial services sector is the engine of UK economic opportunity, far more so than when we entered the EU. Continued EU membership will continue to feature the risk of externally driven legislation which will disadvantage the City. This is a critical risk we should not subject ourselves to and I hope its eliminated for a generation with a massive out vote.

However, is any major political party here really going to be so brave, when their concerns are only ever short-term? Look at the example of the SNP - lots of bluster for independence when they had no chance of achieving it - now they've got total control of the Scottish parliament, they're all for continued membership so they can change the system from within.

 

[Atilla]

While your argument about my "hence" statement allude to cum hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy. If the shoes fits, then i see no problem with it, especially since the data supports the statement. The pound has been falling sometime. The pound was hovering at $1.71 just last year and now it trades around $1.54. That's a %10 drop - mighty big! Greece has debt-to-DBP ratio of %175.1, Portugal:%129. Now take a look at countries like

United Kingdom %90.6

Germany %78.4
Denmark %44.5,
Sweden %40.6,
Norway %29.5

Those stats above, they are misleading in trying to make a point. Northern European countries with lowest debt have the highest taxation around 50% +. They pay their tax and have also come out to be happiest nations in studies too.

If the debt ridden low taxed corrupt nations paid the same tax then their levels of debt would be the same. So this debt is obviously a national issue and nothing to do with EU at all.


It is in the national interest for the UK to stay in EU. Business interests depend on it so to leave would be a very bad business decision.

Governments are there to provide a stable and healthy environment for business to thrive. So I fail to see on what basis it is more desirable for us to be out rather than in if business want to stay in.

The EU is a big trading bloc. Moreover, North America and Asia are trying to create similar trading blocs. This is precisely because EU is successful. So we should maintain policy of staying in the union whilst staying out of the currency.



Yes the pound has been falling since the turn of the century and the two world wars were to knock GB off it's perch as Germany battled for resources in the colonies that were ruled by Britannia. GB was duly cut down to size and had to retreat leaving us with the Common Wealth. Thus, the fall in the purchasing power of sterling can not and should not be attributed to the EU.

One could make the argument, UK's position in global trade and the currency could be much weaker if we were not positioned as one of the big three member countries in the EU.


If one looks at all the successful countries in the World, they pretty much have large populations with mixed nationalities at that. Diversity adds to the dynamics of life. Agreed, we should control it but to close doors and inward looking policies in an increasingly global World would be totally the wrong strategy for the future.


What the UK needs now, instead of wasting valuable time, energy and resource is to develop manufacturing industry and start competing at the top end of the market for new mass produced technologies of the future.


Instead we going to continue with this Brexit debate.

Only positive I can see is it will keep the pound from strengthening and provide some advantage for exports to compete. :idea:

 

[Trader333]

[qoute]I personally would have to disagree.[/quote]

Time will tell but if there is any yielding by the EU to British demands it sets the ball rolling for everyone else. Maybe we should have another sweepstakes on it but I am almost certain that we will still have the referundum because we won't get what we want from the EU.

 

[alexaherself]

Time will tell but if there is any yielding by the EU to British demands it sets the ball rolling for everyone else.

Yes; this seems very much to be their potential problem.

They may still manage to circumvent that, somehow, and give Cameron something which he can use adequately well for him to be able to lead the "yes" campaign at a referendum, though, bearing in mind that they clearly want us to stay rather than to leave? They must know that (from their perspective) Cameron has to be able to win a referendum here, for us to stay in. So they're not exactly unincentivised to produce some appropriate-enough window-dressing, to smoothe Cameron's path with his referendum electorate?

 

[hhiusa]

In my view there is zero chance of that happening and you only have to look at the approach being taken to Greece to know there will be no allowance for any renegotiation of terms.

What approach would that be?

 

[hhiusa]

........

National problems are Eurozone problems. What is the Eurozone but an amalgamation of economically weak countries that couldn't stand on their own. The US prints more money because they can. The USD is worth what US needs it to be, because foreigner still want to buy our debt. Nobody really wants to buy Portugal's or Greece's debt.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/charlemagne/2010/02/greeces_generous_pensions

Taxes are relevant to the discussion because if you want sovereignty, then learn how to govern yourself or else reap what you sow. The scandinavian countries responsibly have a high retirement age and high taxes unlike southern European countries with high austerity measures, low retirement age and no way to finance such a behavior. These are very real factors that some Europeans seem to be taking for granted.

 

[Atilla]

National problems are Eurozone problems. What is the Eurozone but an amalgamation of economically weak countries that couldn't stand on their own. The US prints more money because they can. The USD is worth what US needs it to be, because foreigner still want to buy our debt. Nobody really wants to buy Portugal's or Greece's debt.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/charlemagne/2010/02/greeces_generous_pensions

Taxes are relevant to the discussion because if you want sovereignty, then learn how to govern yourself or else reap what you sow. The scandinavian countries responsibly have a high retirement age and high taxes unlike southern European countries with high austerity measures, low retirement age and no way to finance such a behavior. These are very real factors that some Europeans seem to be taking for granted.

You haven't really addressed MAJOR points raised!

1. So if indebted countries raise taxes there debt levels likely to come down to same level as Northern countries, but choose not to. This has no bearing on EU. As you state individual countries have a responsibility to manage their budgets. EU also stipulated budget deficits should not exceed 3% of GDP.

2. EU is NOT an amalgamation of weak countries. On the contrary European countries are among the top leading manufacturing countries with high disposable incomes.


When you state weakness, what time period are you comparing this weakness with? Last 5-10 years, last 50 years or last 100 years? Need to have some perspective on what constitutes weakness.

How do you view attempts for the setup of NA and Asia-pac trading blocks?
- http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/418784/North-American-Free-Trade-Agreement-NAFTA
NAFTA was inspired by the success of the European Community in eliminating tariffs in order to stimulate trade among its members. A Canadian-U.S. free-trade agreement was concluded in 1988, and NAFTA basically extended this agreement’s provisions to Mexico.

- http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/21/w...ounce-trade-bloc-to-rival-us-effort.html?_r=0
China cheered a plan for a 16-nation trade bloc that would cover nearly half of the world’s people.

You suggesting that whilst there are these big major moves in the East and West, emulating EU trading bloc, UK step out on its own so as to do what? Stop the free movement of labour in Europe?

How do you explain sterling falling in the last 100 years even before it joined the EU?

How can you claim EU is causing currency and economic weakness when you have no comparison or consideration to what if UK was not in the EU? Where would the currency be then?

Finally, what would you say to majority of business who want to stay in? You are suggesting you know what is better for their business potential, than they do?

 

[hhiusa]

Germany sees no Greek debt deal on Monday, warns against default

You haven't really addressed MAJOR points raised!

1. So if indebted countries raise taxes their debt levels are likely to come down to same level as northern countries, but choose not to. This has no bearing on the EU. As you state individual countries have a responsibility to manage their budgets. EU also stipulated budget deficits should not exceed 3% of GDP.

This absolutely has bearing on the EU and I have addressed this point. Just look at the charts debt-to-GDP ratio. When a country is a member state of the EU, what they do affects other countries that are members of the EU. Having low taxes and no way to finance it like Greece, affects the entire European Union as we have seen and as is the case for Germany, who has bailed out Greece. Germany shouldn't have had to pay for Greece mistakes, but since they're all in the EU Germany was obliged to do so.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-15/germans-tired-of-greek-demands-want-country-to-exit-euro
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/09/us-eurozone-greece-germany-schaeuble-idUSKBN0NU0FL20150509

2. EU is NOT an amalgamation of weak countries. On the contrary European countries are among the top leading manufacturing countries with high disposable incomes.

The EU is an almalgamation of weak countries but that's just a matter of opinion, since they joined together in order to strengthen their economies and unify currency, which was point number one. The high disposable income countries are not so high as you might imagine, considering the fact that the entire Eurozone GDP is less than the GDP of the United States.

When you state weakness, what time period are you comparing this weakness with? Last 5-10 years, last 50 years or last 100 years? Need to have some perspective on what constitutes weakness.

The charts I posted, explain these questions.

How do you view attempts for the setup of NA and Asia-pac trading blocks?
- http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/418784/North-American-Free-Trade-Agreement-NAFTA
NAFTA was inspired by the success of the European Community in eliminating tariffs in order to stimulate trade among its members. A Canadian-U.S. free-trade agreement was concluded in 1988, and NAFTA basically extended this agreement’s provisions to Mexico.

I don't care about Mexico. It wasn't the point. While there does exist a free trade agreement between Canada and the US. Canada definitely does not get to tell the US how to do anything, as is the case with EU directives. This is completely different than what we are talking about with the European Union there is no North America Union. NAFTA is just that -- a free trade agreement.

You are suggesting that whilst there are these big major moves in the East and West, emulating the EU trading bloc, UK steps out on its own so as to do what? Stop the free movement of labour in Europe?

How do you explain sterling falling in the last 100 years even before it joined the EU?

Let's not be too tangential here, but yes exactly to stop free movement of labour in Europe to UK.

How can you claim the EU is causing currency and economic weakness when you have no comparison or consideration to what if the UK was not in the EU? Where would the currency be then?

Finally, what would you say to the majority of business who want to stay in? You are suggesting you know what is better for their business potential, than they do?

If a business wishes to stay in the EU, I do not know why would want that. I definitely prefer my business operating in a country that has not been told by other countries, what to do. The US doesn't have the same trade agreements with European countries as member European countries have with each other and yet US businesses are not complaining. If Britain left the EU then it would be harder for immigrants to move or at least the immigrants that you do not want there. Immigrant physicists - no problem, immigrants on the dole - major problem. Why do you think so many scientist defected the US, commonly known as the Von Braun Group. We will take your scientists, but you can keep your pencil pushers and public servants so to speak.

 

[Forexmospherian]

-----------------------------------

The EU is an almalgamation of weak countries but that's just a matter of opinion, since they joined together in order to strengthen their economies and unify currency, which was point number one. The high disposable income countries are not so high as you might imagine, considering the fact that the entire Eurozone GDP is less than the GDP of the United States.

Hi hhiusa

I get the feeling I know who you are - but that's no issue as I always enjoy your input and comments on this Forum

Have to disagree with you on GDP size as well

Also if you are trying to "big up " the US - surely you know they cheat and lie with regards to the figures - they have done for years ( Oil reserves - a classic ) so you cannot rely on anything that come out from the US government

I love the US as a country - but its people unfortunately have been duped for years - look at their silly gun laws etc etc

Anyway - that's a different debate - but don't try and belittle the UK or the EU ;-)

Regards

F

 

[Atilla]

...

1. Germany was not obliged to but chose to pay as the biggest benefactor from the EU. If Greece is not prepared to reform her unsustainable pension and taxation policies it will end up leaving the EU. So it comes down to choice. Just as the UK didn't have to help Ireland with approx 10bn of credit but it chose to.

2. Are we talking per capita or absolute GDP size. You do realise US has 350m against 250-300m EU population size and being a single market with 51 Federal states and most advance country in the World should do. I agree with FM your understanding is different to ours.

3. Those charts don't say much other than variances in the countries stats. EU has some of the best living standards, life styles and highest disposable income in the World. Your opinion EU is a bunch of weak countries is a matter for your judgement.

4. Mexico is not the point. There is a shift in tectonic trading plates of the world towards trading blocs and agreements and standards to facilitate trade? US is a big enough market place with 350m people. UK has about 70m. Doesn't have independence on food and many strategic industries. So comparing UK to US is not the same thing.

Moreover, NAFTA is looking at incorporating Latin American countries into those agreements too. Same as Asia incorporating more countries.


5. European Union is far ahead of both these and in some cases is a positive. I would like the option of going to live in Italy, move my pension there and be entitled to free health service as EU members are entitled to the same here in the UK. I see no issue there and feel it is a positive to all EU members. One of my friends has already made the move to Spain last March. He is not alone either.

Another friend also was in IT who married a Bulgarian and moved over to some big fantastic farm over there and does balloon flights for visitors.

I love travelling in Europe too. When one has several small countries with some as little as 5 m populations, the union makes good sense. A little like Federal states in the US.

I know some of the cannabis rules are stupid different between states and it makes a mockery of law and order. So harmonising of those rules and laws makes sense. How can a man be innocent in one state and guilty in another.


6. Reasons why scientists and inventions go to the US is because there are more funds for R&D and a longer view is taken compared to short term ROI in the UK in particular. This is one of the key reasons for the decline of British industry. Starved of invesment and good management. Blamed the unions. We also have considerably less engineers (8x less) than Germany or Japan.

Moreover, some industries as Airlines require massive capital investments which the small countries in the EU could not take on individually but collectively can. Hence, Boeing is challenged by Airbus. UK Rolls Royce is a direct benefactor of this union and World leader in engine manufacture.


In summary considering the challenges and prospects of conducting global business, to focus on free movement of labour and a few hard working immigrants is short sighted and much ado about nothing imo.


When there is big prey to hunt out in the big wide jungle some people simply want to swat mosquitoes.

 

[Splitlink]

Hi hhiusa

I get the feeling I know who you are - but that's no issue as I always enjoy your input and comments on this Forum

Have to disagree with you on GDP size as well

Also if you are trying to "big up " the US - surely you know they cheat and lie with regards to the figures - they have done for years ( Oil reserves - a classic ) so you cannot rely on anything that come out from the US government

I love the US as a country - but its people unfortunately have been duped for years - look at their silly gun laws etc etc

Anyway - that's a different debate - but don't try and belittle the UK or the EU ;-)

Regards

F

Hi F. thanks for putting the record straight on GDP

Actually, I would not have been too surprised if US did have a bigger GDP. One only has to look back in history to wonder at its production capacity when faced with wars abroad.

What has happened, in actual fact, is that they have ingeniously managed to have a currency that is desired, and has become the benchmark, by all foreign countries. It is so desirable that, whenever they need more, they simply print it. The result is that trillions of dollars, in the form of bonds, are held by everyone who needs to do business with the US.

What happens is that other currencies are valued against it and, so, we have the main purpose of this site, currency trading.

However, because they are lending more and more money, their currency is decreasing in value all the time and, because we are floating our money against the dollar, ours is, too.

I don't think that the Euro is any different, as a currency, than all the rest. If you think that the GBP is so strong, ask yourselves why my father bought a house for under 2,000 GBPs in the late forties and that house is around a million (NW London) today. Or why he, as a London bus driver eaned 7 GBP per week while today's London busman earns hundreds,

What has this to do with Germany leaving EU (which I don't think will happen)? If their currency was overvalued then they can always print more. I believe that if the UK leaves, the same will happen, but it will be a necessity because our production is pretty well limited to the financial sector, these days.

Off topic, I'm afraid, but today the world has gone global and everyone is connected. The UK had better believe that.

 

[hhiusa]

Hi hhiusa

I get the feeling I know who you are - but that's no issue as I always enjoy your input and comments on this Forum

Have to disagree with you on GDP size as well

Very interesting. 20+ countries countries beats the US by only $1.076 trillion. Population doesn't matter. If population mattered then China would have a higher GNP than the US and it does not.

To address the issue about the 50 states in the US plus the Washington, D.C., I point you to California.

Population
California 38,000,000 $1,959 billion
Poland 38,500,000 $878 billion
Spain 47,500,000 $1,525 billion
United Kingdom 64,100,000 $2,674 billion

In contrast to that, I point to the industriousness of certain European countries such as Germany, Sweden, Norway, Austria and Denmark. Their GDP per capita PPP is among the highest, (the amount of money produced "per head" or each citizen, which is a good measure of how industrious the people are). When people speak of higher standards of living in Europe, they are referring to these countires.

To answer the question about visiting Europe.
I do like several places in Europe, namely Oslo, Norway; Greve, Denmark; Saltsjöbaden, Sweden; Hamburg, Germany; Monaco,; Buckinghamshire, England.

When there is big prey to hunt out in the big wide jungle some people simply want to swat mosquitoes.

What is the point there?

In summary considering the challenges and prospects of conducting global business, to focus on free movement of labour and a few hard working immigrants is short sighted and much ado about nothing.

It is not just a few immigrants, it is millions of immigrants who want the greener grass on the other side of the fence and who could blame them. The problem arises from not respecting what the people who were there before you have created and not taking advantage.

 

[Splitlink]

It is not just a few immigrants, it is millions of immigrants who want the greener grass on the other side of the fence and who could blame them. The problem arises from not respecting what the people who were there before you have created and not taking advantage.

There are one or two points about that quote that I have difficulty with.

The US, Britain and France organised a "no fly" zone over Libya that helped to defeat the Gaddaffi regime. Do you believe that Libya should have been, subsequently, left to its own devices afterwards? The Libyans are leaving that country in their thousands, every week. The Italians picked up over 4000 boat people last weekend alone!. The death toll is appalling. Don't you think that the RN should be more active in the Med? Where is the morale of a government that shakes hands with a dictator--as Blair did--- on one occasion and instigates his violent removal on another? Then, although it has the biggest navy in Europe, refuses to send assistance to the Italians who, with the Spanish, are taking the brunt of the refugees?

If the UK votes to leave the EU, so be it. But let us be clear about the arguments used. It is not all Brussels' fault. BTW, the Europeans don't think that Brussels is perfect, either.

 

[Forexmospherian]

Two more articles of interest with regards to the discussion involving our US friend

1 - America's GDP figures

Re - http://www.libertarianprepper.com/how-the-government-lies-with-statistics/

I could never understand why our major crime incidents and also in some other EU countries were supposed to be so much worse than in the US ?

Well it all down to comparing oranges and apples - a bit like the American gallon of Fuel being a different size to our gallon. Well with regards to major crime incidents - in the UK even small crimes appear in this category - ie some robber stole your cycle out of the garden shed - whereas in the US you need to be shot 3 times - raped and have you house burn down - before that hits the major crime incident level ( Ok slight exaggeration ) but you know what I mean.

End result - many US people think Europe is a dangerous place to live - and you are far more likely to be killed etc than in the US etc etc

Next article - why the UK will overtake Germany in future decades

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9039871/why-britains-economy-will-overtake-germanys/

PS - I would like to retire in the South of France ( first choice ) if not La Jolla in California ( loved it there ) - but I dont reckon the US will allow me ( I still have some parking fines - so I probably don't meet their immigration requirements ( lol)

 

[tomorton]

We got involved in bringing the Gaddafi regime down as a response to a new situation - the civil war in Libya and his regime's actions in that new context. I expect our government of the day to react to a new situation, including dealing in a very opposite way with the same regime compared to previously.

The response of the EU to the Mediterranean refugee issue is criminal. While we're in the EU, we should help manage its borders, or else what's the point?

 

[tomorton]

Hi FM - one day I intend to be living in Nice, at least part of the year. Let me know where you end up.

 

[Forexmospherian]

Hi FM - one day I intend to be living in Nice, at least part of the year. Let me know where you end up.

Slighty off topic over last 2 decades had some great holidays in Cannes ( prefer it to Nice - but property prices higher etc ) - but would agree with you Nice comes a lot higher on my list than in the villages between Tamworth and Birmingham - so don't plan to be around here in another 3 -5 yrs

 

[Atilla]

Slighty off topic over last 2 decades had some great holidays in Cannes ( prefer it to Nice - but property prices higher etc ) - but would agree with you Nice comes a lot higher on my list than in the villages between Tamworth and Birmingham - so don't plan to be around here in another 3 -5 yrs

Interesting that retiring to sunny climates seems to be the main trend shared by good few who can achieve the dream. Increasingly, becoming available to good many too.

Friend who left recently to Spain says he knows of English builders doing roaring business on English home owners over there. No better time to buy up a good pad now then any other whilst property prices low.

I think it's simply fantastic that these opportunities are opening to us all.


Chatting to some van dwellers on Brighton sea-front and they were planning on moving to Portugal because their laws and living off the land were so much more relaxed and free compared to ours in the UK. So they spend the winters over there and drive up to the UK for the summer periods to catch up with old friends.


I really feel Europe rocks and it is big enough to find what each is looking for with all kinds of weather, terrain and adventure one can dream of.

 

[hhiusa]

Do you believe that Libya should have been, subsequently, left to its own devices afterwards? The Libyans are leaving that country in their thousands, every week. The Italians picked up over 4000 boat people last weekend alone!. The death toll is appalling. Don't you think that the RN should be more active in the Med? Where is the morale of a government that shakes hands with a dictator--as Blair did--- on one occasion and instigates his violent removal on another? Then, although it has the biggest navy in Europe, refuses to send assistance to the Italians who, with the Spanish, are taking the brunt of the refugees?

The immigrants I was referring to were not from Africa. Africa is not part of the EU. Speaking of apple to oranges, which is poor expression, why not state something like which fallacy it is. I am referring to the Mediterranean nations efflux and influx into the UK.

Re - http://www.libertarianprepper.com/how-the-government-lies-with-statistics/

I could never understand why our major crime incidents and also in some other EU countries were supposed to be so much worse than in the US ?

...
...
...

End result - many US people think Europe is a dangerous place to live - and you are far more likely to be killed etc than in the US etc etc

Yeah, If you go to Washington, D.C, Boston, New York City, Chicago, Detroit or Pittsburgh. Basically, big cities are cesspools of crime and debauchery.

Next article - why the UK will overtake Germany in future decades

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9039871/why-britains-economy-will-overtake-germanys/

This involves rather simple math. Germany makes 1.5 more money than the UK. UK growth has average 1.475%/year from 2010 to now, while Germany's average is 2.05%/year.

The tenth root or 10-year geometric mean of 50% is 4.13% and 4.13+2.05 = 6.18. This means the UK would have to grow at a rate of about 6.18% per annum to reach Germany in a decade or 4.09% per annum to reach them in 2 decades or 3.41% in 3 decades. 3.41% is more than double the current average, which makes that statement seem unlikely.
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?order=wbapi_data_value_2013+wbapi_data_value+wbapi_data_value-last&sort=desc

PS - I would like to retire in the South of France ( first choice ) if not La Jolla in California ( loved it there ) - but I dont reckon the US will allow me ( I still have some parking fines - so I probably don't meet their immigration requirements ( lol)

Most Americans would like to retire in La Jolla. :clap:
P.S. I might consider retiring in Monte Carlo or maybe stay where I am at.