Best Thread Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Wheat
COT Change (52W) / C – 30%, LS – 30%, SS – 8% /
We have a 30% bearish cot change signal – I wouldn’t act on it – and a cot extreme picture showing bullishness… I’d step aside from this market for now.

Cotton
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Although we’ve got an all time cot extreme, I’m not that confident that cotton will change it’s path for now. I will wait for further increase in the stress level.

Russel-2000
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
All Time cot extreme in all major participants positions, but trading indexes these days is risky business.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[joseph1986]

hi dunstan
does the cot analysis website provide the data in spreadsheet format?

 

[Dunstan]

hi dunstan
does the cot analysis website provide the data in spreadsheet format?

Hi Joseph,

Nope, they don't. But you can download the data directly from CFTC: http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/HistoricalCompressed/index.htm

All the best,
Dunstan

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Wheat
COT Change (52W) / C – 40%, LS – 28%, SS – 34% /
I’m still on the sidelines here…

Cotton
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
No change from last report.

Copper
COT Extreme / C – 681 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Huge, all time cot extreme here that developed very fast. I think this is a good signal that we can act upon.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[joseph1986]

Hi Joseph,

Nope, they don't. But you can download the data directly from CFTC: http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/HistoricalCompressed/index.htm

All the best,
Dunstan

You are amazing dunstan, here I have all the columns. Which ones to dissect long and short?
As_of_Date_In_Form_YYMMDD
Report_Date_as_MM_DD_YYYY
CFTC_Contract_Market_Code
CFTC_Market_Code
CFTC_Region_Code
CFTC_Commodity_Code
Open_Interest_All
Dealer_Positions_Long_All
Dealer_Positions_Short_All
Dealer_Positions_Spread_All
Asset_Mgr_Positions_Long_All
Asset_Mgr_Positions_Short_All
Asset_Mgr_Positions_Spread_All
Lev_Money_Positions_Long_All
Lev_Money_Positions_Short_All
Lev_Money_Positions_Spread_All
Other_Rept_Positions_Long_All
Other_Rept_Positions_Short_All
Other_Rept_Positions_Spread_All
Tot_Rept_Positions_Long_All
Tot_Rept_Positions_Short_All
NonRept_Positions_Long_All
NonRept_Positions_Short_All
Change_in_Open_Interest_All
Change_in_Dealer_Long_All
Change_in_Dealer_Short_All
Change_in_Dealer_Spread_All
Change_in_Asset_Mgr_Long_All
Change_in_Asset_Mgr_Short_All
Change_in_Asset_Mgr_Spread_All
Change_in_Lev_Money_Long_All
Change_in_Lev_Money_Short_All
Change_in_Lev_Money_Spread_All
Change_in_Other_Rept_Long_All
Change_in_Other_Rept_Short_All
Change_in_Other_Rept_Spread_All
Change_in_Tot_Rept_Long_All
Change_in_Tot_Rept_Short_All
Change_in_NonRept_Long_All
Change_in_NonRept_Short_All
Pct_of_Open_Interest_All
Pct_of_OI_Dealer_Long_All
Pct_of_OI_Dealer_Short_All
Pct_of_OI_Dealer_Spread_All
Pct_of_OI_Asset_Mgr_Long_All
Pct_of_OI_Asset_Mgr_Short_All
Pct_of_OI_Asset_Mgr_Spread_All
Pct_of_OI_Lev_Money_Long_All
Pct_of_OI_Lev_Money_Short_All
Pct_of_OI_Lev_Money_Spread_All
Pct_of_OI_Other_Rept_Long_All
Pct_of_OI_Other_Rept_Short_All
Pct_of_OI_Other_Rept_Spread_All
Pct_of_OI_Tot_Rept_Long_All
Pct_of_OI_Tot_Rept_Short_All
Pct_of_OI_NonRept_Long_All
Pct_of_OI_NonRept_Short_All
Traders_Tot_All
Traders_Dealer_Long_All
Traders_Dealer_Short_All
Traders_Dealer_Spread_All
Traders_Asset_Mgr_Long_All
Traders_Asset_Mgr_Short_All
Traders_Asset_Mgr_Spread_All
Traders_Lev_Money_Long_All
Traders_Lev_Money_Short_All
Traders_Lev_Money_Spread_All
Traders_Other_Rept_Long_All
Traders_Other_Rept_Short_All
Traders_Other_Rept_Spread_All
Traders_Tot_Rept_Long_All
Traders_Tot_Rept_Short_All
Conc_Gross_LE_4_TDR_Long_All
Conc_Gross_LE_4_TDR_Short_All
Conc_Gross_LE_8_TDR_Long_All
Conc_Gross_LE_8_TDR_Short_All
Conc_Net_LE_4_TDR_Long_All
Conc_Net_LE_4_TDR_Short_All
Conc_Net_LE_8_TDR_Long_All
Conc_Net_LE_8_TDR_Short_All
Contract_Units
CFTC_SubGroup_Code
FutOnly_or_Combined

 

[Dunstan]

You are amazing dunstan, here I have all the columns. Which ones to dissect long and short?
As_of_Date_In_Form_YYMMDD
Report_Date_as_MM_DD_YYYY
CFTC_Contract_Market_Code
.
.
.
Conc_Net_LE_8_TDR_Short_All
Contract_Units
CFTC_SubGroup_Code
FutOnly_or_Combined

Hi Joseph,

The reason for my subscription to COTbase.com was exactly this, I did not want manually put together these data (they do the hard work and visually represent the net positions of Traders). So unfortunately I am unable to help you with this, I am sorry

All the best,
Dunstan

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Crude Oil
COT Change (52W) / C – 39%, LS – 35%, SS – 13% /
COT Change signal large, maybe considered in trading decision, but the extreme can grow further, I would not act on it. To be more clear --> in the near term we can expect a decline (bearish cot change signal) but the extreme has not yet reached a level where I couldn’t see further increases.

Cotton
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
No change from last report.

Russel-2000
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Stress levels at record highs so we can expect the market to react. Caution is advised due to the nature of indexes.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Wheat
COT Change (52W) / C – 21%, LS – 17%, SS – 11% /
If you look at the 5 years long chart, you can see that maybe, just maybe the bullish cot extreme that has been present in the market for many many months now is taking an effect on Wheat. I can imagine that we might have reached a bottom and we will see further increases in prices, but the cot change signal that we got now suggests a bit of a reaction downwards.

Heating Oil
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Since the last major bullish cot extreme, prices have gone dynamically higher. The recent report shows us that Traders have gone from their most bullish extreme levels to their most bearish extreme. We may have reached a top!

S&P-400
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Stress levels at record highs, but what do the other indexes show? Because of the significant correlation between indexes, such signals should be dealt with caution.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Wheat (Chicago)
COT Change (52W) / C – 30%, LS – 37%, SS – 36% /
Prices have not gone much higher since the first report came out, and we’ve just received another bearish cot change signal, this time an even greater one. Traders are dynamically moving the market towards it’s bearish extreme. Although in the long run, I am expecting much higher prices to come, there may be a reaction in the market.

Cotton
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture here seems to be pretty obvious: we have an all time cot extreme in the market, so we should be prepared for a change in the trend.

Cocoa
COT Extreme / LS – 236 report COT extreme /
The last time Large specs were net short, price of Cocoa was at a bottom. Although the extreme can further widen, become larger, I think that this opportunity should be carefully analyzed.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Soybean Meal
COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS – 22%, SS – 42% /
After a dynamic increase in prices during the last two weeks, we shouldn’t be surprised to see such a sudden change in Traders positions. The signal of course is bearish, but the cot extreme shows us that we can reach even higher prices the next couple of weeks, months.

Crude Oil
COT Extreme / C – 133 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Huge bearish cot extreme signal. Will this mean a top? The last time we were at such extreme levels, prices started to fall. Caution is advised: it would be too simple to expect history to repeat itself exactly the same way. I would be prepared for further increases.

S&P-400
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
Have a look at other indexes before entering short just because we got an all time cot extreme signal here.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Oats
COT Change (52W) / C – 20%, LS – 21% /
Cot change signal indicating that prices may drop early this week, but the wider picture (last major cot extreme being bullish) shows that prices could easily continue their rally.

Crude Oil
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
No change from last week.

S&P-400
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
No change from last week.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

RBOB Gasoline
COT Change (52W) / C – 23%, LS – 21% /
Bullish cot change signal, but coming a bit late, prices have already jumped higher. The cot extreme is not that clear either, so I’d rather stay out of this market for now.

Cocoa
COT Extreme / C - 243, LS – 657 report COT extreme /
Holly Sh*t! Now that is serious decline… Although we have got this very large COT extreme signal (bullish of course), we need to be careful: this extreme can easily become even larger the next couple of weeks, before we reach a bottom. Nevertheless, it is a great market that is providing us with trading opportunities, so let’s keep an eye on Cocoa!

Live Cattle
COT Extreme / C, LS – 112 report COT extreme /
Bearish cot extreme here. I wouldn’t jump in here, but if you are a regular LC trader than it’s good to know that the cot report supports lower prices for now.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Wheat
COT Change (52W) / C – 32%, LS – 32%, SS – 21% /
Large bearish cot change signal and I think we have a relatively good bearish extreme as well (77 report extreme) that could signal further decline in Wheat. On the long run, I’d be more careful, since there has been a significant bullish extreme in the market for a pretty long time.

Crude Oil
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Are prices able to go any higher? The cot report suggests that the answer to this question is: NO! But since we are talking about Crude Oil and we know that all time cot extremes can stay in a market for many weeks, we should be careful.

Cotton
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The cot extreme signal is clear, we may expect lower prices coming here.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C – 31%, LS – 32%, SS – 5% /
Without any help from the cot extreme picture (more or less neutral), we can only use the signal coming from the large change in Traders positions to help us in our trading decision. The signal is bullish, may affect prices early this week.

Cotton
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The cot extreme widened further, which means that the chances of prices turning down is increasing.

Cocoa
COT Extreme / C – 254, LS – 721 report COT extreme /
LS and C are definitely backing a higher prices are coming thesis, but it would be so nice if SS were also heavily pessimistic on Cocoa

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Mexican Peso
COT Change (52W) / C – 41%, LS – 44% /
A very large cot change signal at a good resistance level. If you thing that the downtrend should continue, this may be a good opportunity to get in.

British Pound
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Huge All Time cot extreme signal, but caution is advised, the extreme can widen further.

Sugar
COT Extreme / C – 52, LS – 51 report COT extreme /
If you are considering going long in this market, it’s good to know that the cot report is backing the trade.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Mexican Peso
COT Change (52W) / C – 24%, LS – 26% /
COT Extreme / C, LS – 134 report COT extreme /
The cot change signal may have come a bit late, but with the cot extreme picture supporting a decline, we may still consider the opportunity arising in this market.

Live Cattle
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Here we have an easily readable situation, the picture is crystal clear. Maybe not right away, but going short sometime in the near future may look like a reasonable decision.

Natural Gas
COT Extreme / LS – 527 report COT extreme /
LS have not been so bullish in Natural gas for approximately 10 years. Although not an all time cot extreme, but still pretty significant not to take a closer look at.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Rough Rice
COT Change (52W) / C – 29%, LS – 31% /
Large bullish cot change signal (largest in the last 52 weeks) which could easily halt the decline in prices. Longer term picture? Last major extreme was bearish (last report), so we could see further decrease in prices.

Wheat
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Further price increase expected in this market!

Live Cattle
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The cot extreme signal is very obvious, but caution is advised: prices can continue their rise for a couple more weeks (or even months) and the extreme will most certainly become even larger.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

British Pound
COT Change (52W) / C – 44%, LS – 46% /
The large change in traders positions is a bearish signal for us, but it is important to see the bigger picture. The last major extreme was an unquestionable bullish cot extreme signal and it is obvious that price have gone higher since. There is a long way to go to reach bearish extreme levels, so I would think that prices can go lower, but the main signal to follow is still the bullish extreme!

Canadian Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 33% /
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Wow, what a bullish situation in the Canadian Dollar! Both of our main cot signals are very bullish: large change in Traders positions AND an All Time cot extreme! Does anyone need more than that??

Platinum
COT Extreme / C - 405, LS – 406 report COT extreme /
Very large bullish extreme here with possibly a good risk/reward trade opportunity due to the fact of close support levels.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Convergence]

Have been looking at CAD from the other side of the fence: retail positioning is massively short so a contrarian buy signal just waiting for a decent set up

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Australian Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C – 32%, LS – 28%, SS – 22% /
Both cot signals are bullish: we had a large change in Traders positions (this may have come a bit late / prices have already been rising the past week) and we have reached a relative bullish extreme.

Natural Gas
COT Change (52W) / C – 17%, LS – 17% /
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Stress levels have never been as high as they are now, we should expect prices to fall in the next couple of months.

Canadian Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Have we reached a bottom? Last week prices have gone higher. If they can finish this week with the same result, we can speculate that the cot extreme signal has taken its effect.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts