Best Thread Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Oats
COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 32%, SS – 11% /
Both of our main cot signals are bullish: a larger change in Traders positions and also the cot extreme. I think this is a good market with large trading potential in it!

Wheat (both: Chicago and Kansas)
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Prices are still declining, but as they do, stress levels are getting larger day by day… I think these are again great markets with good trading opportunities! Similar to Oats of course, so take into consideration the correlation effect when managing your portfolio.

Natural Gas
COT Extreme / C – All Time, LS – 213 report COT extreme /
I thought I’ll jump over rough rice and talk about something new instead The cot extreme is clearly huge and we have seen confirming price reaction last week, so we may start looking for good entries here!

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Nasdaq-100
COT Change (52W) / C – 48%, LS – 33%, SS – 34% /
COT Extreme / SS – 160 report COT extreme /
It may seem interesting at these price levels, but all major cot signals are bullish: a large change in Traders positions and pessimistic small speculators.

Rough Rice
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Prices are declining and as they do, the cot extreme is becoming larger and larger… I have attached a longer, 15y chart to show you: although there is plenty of space left downwards (making us cautious), we have reached a significant support level.

Wheat (Kansas)
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Extreme has become larger, but last week prices managed to gain some momentum… we’ll see in the next few weeks whether we have reached the bottom or not

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[josephkerr]

New vision

Step on the heels of smart money:

and some video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9t1kMwOmJo

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Japanese Yen
COT Change (52W) / C – 36%, LS – 35%, SS – 17% /
COT Extreme / SS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture is becoming pretty bullish in the Japanese Yen. We have a bullish cot change signal, relative bullish extreme in LS and C and an unquestionable large bullish cot extreme in SS positions.

Soybeans
COT Extreme / LS – 537 report COT extreme /
It looks like the bullish cot extreme from last year September was not enough for prices to maintain strength and we may see much greater extremes coming in the near future… so even though we have this bullish extreme, I’d very cautious.

Coffee
COT Extreme / C, LS – 75 report COT extreme /
As we can see, the bearish cot extreme from last year that managed to draw prices down, is gradually leaving the field… we are getting closer and closer to a bullish cot extreme!

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Nasdaq-100
COT Change (52W) / C – 53%, LS – 26%, SS – 35% /
Without an extreme to talk about, it is only the larger change in Traders positions (mainly Commercials) that has any signal value for us --> bearish cot change signal, possibly effecting prices this week… I’d move on to other markets.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
With the all-time cot extreme present in the market, we have an unquestionable cot extreme signal (bullish of course). I love currencies in this respect, because these are very reliable signals! Have a look at the chart and you will see that in the past how well the New Zealand Dollar has reacted to these extremes. Of course don’t forget that these extremes may stay in place for many weeks before the action starts!

Orange Juice
COT Extreme / LS – 612 report COT extreme /
Although not all-time, but clearly a huge cot extreme here as well (and again bullish). If you have a look at OJs history, you will find that Large Speculators were very rarely bearish in the market… but whenever they were, shortly after that prices hit a bottom and from then on, prices rallied. I’m expecting something similar to happen again.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Silver
COT Change (52W) / C – 43%, LS – 49%, SS – 27% /
On one side we have this bullish cot change signal and on the other side we have the bearish cot extreme (more visible two reports ago). This could mean that we will see a bit of rise in the next few days, but for the next few weeks we expect further weakening in prices.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Further declining in prices as the extreme becomes larger… if you remember my last sentence in last week’s post, you shouldn’t be surprised --> these extremes bay be present in a market for many weeks before we see price reaction!

Natural Gas
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
After the decline of 2014, we have once again reached a bullish cot extreme… not only a large one, but one that we have never seen in the past. It is truly a strong signal, one that shouldn’t be neglected! I think we have opportunities here

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

COTbase did not post a new review, but anyhow, I’ll still update for you!

Nasdaq-100
COT Change (52W) / C – 81%, LS – 71% /
Bearish cot change signal that was large enough to push the market to a cot extreme that is considerable. This means that all our major cot signals have become red, but of course caution is advised, indexes – in my opinion – do not react to cot signals as well as other markets do.

Palladium
COT Extreme / C, LS – 133 report COT extreme /
The cot extreme is becoming larger, we can talk about a relative extreme, bullish of course. In case of SS, they are at a much larger extreme, pessimistic about the market which of course is great news for buyers!

Corn
COT Extreme / C – 71, LS – 73 report COT extreme /
We can see a widening extreme as prices go lower. Has the time come to buy again? Well there could be much greater extremes, but as the las bottom shows, a relative cot extreme of this strength is already capable of influencing prices.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Soybeans
COT Change (52W) / C – 52%, LS – 54%, SS – 14% /
By having such a large bearish cot change signal, one might think that we are in for a huge drop in prices… well lower prices in the next few days is highly possible, but let’s look at the bigger picture. You can see that the market is moving away from bullish extreme levels. These levels are not far yet and there is plenty of space in the opposite direction --> The rally can continue in the long run.

Nasdaq-100
COT Change (52W) / C – 50%, LS – 42%, SS – 39 /
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
All major cot signals are pointing heavily downwards, not much that I can add here

New Zealand Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Patience. That’s what we need now… The picture is crystal clear, we’ve never witnessed such a bullish cot extreme in New Zealand Dollar in the past, we are expecting this to have an effect on prices. When? Maybe now, maybe only after a few months.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Heating Oil
COT Change (52W) / C – 28%, LS – 15%, SS – 37% /
Bullish cot change signal: possible rise in prices this week.
COT extreme: not that long ago we had a bullish extreme, prices reacted, but the rally was short living and we are once again seeing dropping prices. Until we breach 2015’s lows, I’d say that we’ve still some change to see rising prices.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Last week we saw a bit of a rise… does it confirm the end of the decline? Volume and OI analysis does not support…

Mexican Peso
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Not much to say here either: all time cot extreme, huge bullish signal, but as NZD shows, we may need to wait a “little” to see higher prices.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Sugar
COT Change (52W) / C – 41%, LS – 28%, SS – 38% /
The bearish cot change signal came a bit late, but looking at that chart patterns, it may have launched another down leg in prices. Although not long ago, we had the bullish cot extreme – giving prices a little momentum – we can witness what happened the last couple of times, when we had such a scenario. Ok, now you might say: “Hey D, that wasn’t oo helpful… tell me, what to do then?” …well I think until a cot extreme signal is breached, we should stick to it: until we see a lower bottom, the signal is in place and we have a good chance to see the rally develop further.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
I could only repeat myself… patience.

Mexican Peso
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
I could only repeat myself… patience.


All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[moyes]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Sugar
COT Change (52W) / C – 41%, LS – 28%, SS – 38% /
The bearish cot change signal came a bit late, but looking at that chart patterns, it may have launched another down leg in prices. Although not long ago, we had the bullish cot extreme – giving prices a little momentum – we can witness what happened the last couple of times, when we had such a scenario. Ok, now you might say: “Hey D, that wasn’t oo helpful… tell me, what to do then?” …well I think until a cot extreme signal is breached, we should stick to it: until we see a lower bottom, the signal is in place and we have a good chance to see the rally develop further.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
I could only repeat myself… patience.

Mexican Peso
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
I could only repeat myself… patience.


All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

Thanks for the COT report. I trade the emini s&p and NZD and EUR quite often. Could you please tell me how should I interpret the NZD COT report when trading daily and weekly time frame? Thanks

 

[Dunstan]

Thanks for the COT report. I trade the emini s&p and NZD and EUR quite often. Could you please tell me how should I interpret the NZD COT report when trading daily and weekly time frame? Thanks

Hi moyes,

Check out post#4 and you'll find the explanation on cot extremes.

I think cot analysis is better used on longer time frames then shorter ones. Don't forget, it is a weekly data. For a shorter time frame, changes in the report could be helpful (cot change signal), but to be honest, I'm that confident with its reliability as I am with cot extremes.

Pinpointing exact tops and bottoms with cot analysis is of course not an easy task ... I like to say that it is better used as a compass, to determine a direction. It is up to tradition TA tools to determine exact entries.

What is clearly visible in NZD is that stress levels in the market have reached levels that we have never seen in the past. Traders are holding soooo much contacts in different directions that the logical question arises: how much further can they increase their positions? (in case of large speculators we can say: their net short positions) You don't need to be a rocket scientist to know what is going to happen once these Traders are unable to grow further They are eventually going to exit these positions and that is the time when the trend will change dramatically.

All the best,
Dunstan

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Sugar
COT Change (52W) / C – 54%, LS – 44%, SS – 36% /
After last week’s bearish cot change signal, now we can see an even greater bullish one. Prices have gone further down as it was expected, although not breaching the support level of the last major bottom --> bullish cot extreme signal is still in place. Now of course the chances are pretty high that we will see Traders changing their positions in the same manner as last week, thus pushing prices even lower / their positions to bullish extreme levels.

Mexican Peso
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
No change from last week.

Oats
COT Extreme / C - 332, LS – 267 report COT extreme /
We have a huge bullish extreme in Oats, so definitely keep watching this market for trading opportunities!


All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Soybean Oil
COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 23%, SS – 41% /
A few weeks ago we were at a pretty large bearish extreme, now prices are down again. This week’s cot data show larger changes in Traders positions (bullish cot change signal) + relative bullish extreme (based on a 1-yr time range). I could argue in any direction: on the bearish side we can say that the close to all time extreme we had a few weeks ago is still in place… on the bullish side: prices at such support levels, the relative bullish extreme and cot change signal present should be viewed. Not an easy picture, that’s for sure

Mexican Peso
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
No change from last week from cot analysis perspective / Friday’s strength maybe signaling the end of the decline?

Oats
COT Extreme / C - 333, LS – 268 report COT extreme /
With widening extreme, prices gone higher last week --> keep watching


All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[moyes]

Hi moyes,

Check out post#4 and you'll find the explanation on cot extremes.

I think cot analysis is better used on longer time frames then shorter ones. Don't forget, it is a weekly data. For a shorter time frame, changes in the report could be helpful (cot change signal), but to be honest, I'm that confident with its reliability as I am with cot extremes.

Pinpointing exact tops and bottoms with cot analysis is of course not an easy task ... I like to say that it is better used as a compass, to determine a direction. It is up to tradition TA tools to determine exact entries.

What is clearly visible in NZD is that stress levels in the market have reached levels that we have never seen in the past. Traders are holding soooo much contacts in different directions that the logical question arises: how much further can they increase their positions? (in case of large speculators we can say: their net short positions) You don't need to be a rocket scientist to know what is going to happen once these Traders are unable to grow further They are eventually going to exit these positions and that is the time when the trend will change dramatically.

All the best,
Dunstan

Thanks a lot for the feedback. Commodities prices especially Dairy here in New Zealand are not doing well at all. I fear the NZD could be heading lower , but for some reason i think it could reverse and go up again.

Currencies are not easy gauge that's for sure

 

[Dunstan]

Thanks a lot for the feedback. Commodities prices especially Dairy here in New Zealand are not doing well at all. I fear the NZD could be heading lower , but for some reason i think it could reverse and go up again.

Currencies are not easy gauge that's for sure

You are very welcome! I'm glad if I was able to help.

All the best,
Dunstan

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Orange Juice
COT Change (52W) / C – 19%, LS – 12%, SS – 44% /
Yeah, we have a bearish cot change signal, but hey (!) we just had a bullish cot extreme --> yes, prices may decline in the short term, but I think prices are headed up in the long term.

Oats
COT Extreme / C - 334, LS – 269 report COT extreme /
Although prices were unable to go much higher last week, momentum is still in place. With widened extreme in the cot report, chances of further increases have gone higher.

Palladium
COT Extreme / C - 156, LS – 156 report COT extreme /
Huge bullish cot extreme (that can easily grow further!!) --> Commercials, Large Speculators getting closer to net0 positions, Small specs bearish. Last two times when this was the case (2011, 2012) we got bottoms. Having great support levels not far, we may be in for a good risk/reward trade!


All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

(Back from my summer vacation )
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Japanese Yen
COT Change (52W) / C – 50%, LS – 44%, SS – 46% /
Bearish cot change signals accompanied by a relative bearish cot extreme. Small speculators are becoming more and more optimistic about a rally, which adds to the bearishness level. On the other hand we’ve got the fundamentals, so I’d be cautious now with a short trade.

Oats
COT Extreme / LS – 272 report COT extreme /
Widening cot extreme with bit of a rise last week. The picture is still positive!

Palladium
COT Extreme / C - 160, LS – 160 report COT extreme /
Similarly to JPY, I think we have to be cautious with the signal now, because of the “situation” we have, but nevertheless, the bullish picture is unquestionable and we should be ready when the opportunity arises.


All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

British Pound
COT Change (52W) / C – 32%, LS – 20%, SS – 43% /
The cot change signal is bullish, the last major cot extreme signal was also bullish, yet last two week’s price movement calls for some caution. I think we may see a bit of a rise early off this week, but it’s hard to tell if that will continue afterwards or would be see prices falling again. If prices do fall, I’m expecting the cot extreme to widen again towards bullish extremes.

Live Cattle
COT Extreme / C, LS – 122 report COT extreme /
We haven’t had such a bullish extreme since 122 reports ago (= about 2 years). Now that is a considerable extreme. But (!), it may also be seen on the chart, that Traders can increase these positions further, so we may need to patient before entering long.

Soybean Oil
COT Extreme / C - 58, LS – 57 report COT extreme /
We do not have such a clear bullish extreme as in LC, but it is visible enough that the picture is becoming bullish week by week.


All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Sugar
COT Change (52W) / C – 42%, LS – 39%, SS – 25% /
The cot change signal suggests a decline will happen, but the bigger picture shows us that we have just reached a bullish cot extreme not long ago. Looking at the past few months, it may easily happen again that prices start to continue their decline while the cot extreme further widens.

Live Cattle
COT Extreme / C, LS – 126 report COT extreme /
Not much has changed since last week, the extreme became larger, prices could not gain momentum yet. We need to be patient.

Coffee
COT Extreme / C - 92, LS – 92 report COT extreme /
We are once again getting close to all time (bullish) cot extreme levels, so start getting prepared for higher prices.


All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts