Best Thread Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C – 16%, LS – 15%, SS – 13% /
Bearish cot change signal this week, but the cot extreme signal is still further away from any significant bearish level, so this means that we can expect a little decline early this week, but in the medium time frame (a few weeks), we should see higher prices.

Euro
COT Extreme / C, LS, SS – 316 report COT extreme /
Huge bearish cot extreme signal (have not seen this level in the market for over 6 years now) at a very nice place (resistance levels close).

Mexican Peso
COT Extreme / C, LS – 147 report COT extreme /
A pretty significant bearish cot extreme signal suggesting that prices will head back on track, which is downwards.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Heating Oil
COT Change (52W) / C – 24%, LS – 19%, SS – 30% /
COT Extreme / C - 60, LS – 56 report COT extreme /
Both of our main cot signals are indicating a price movement upwards.

Live Cattle
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Here we have an unquestionable large cot extreme signal (all time large) that is telling us prices may not continue their rally for too long.

Euro
COT Extreme / LS – 317 report COT extreme /
Prices fell last week --> does this mean we have reached a top? The cot report definitely supports a move downwards.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C – 52%, LS – 54%, SS – 10% /
COT Extreme / C - 214, LS – 213 report COT extreme /
Huge change in Traders positions + large bearish cot extreme signal --> cot report is supporting lower prices.

Sugar
COT Extreme / C - 527, LS – 513 report COT extreme /
What a beautiful picture we have here… Dynamic decline since mid 2016, now a very large bullish cot extreme. Caution is advised, since the picture would not change dramatically if prices got further down, while the extreme widens more.

Wheat (Kansas)
COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS – 30%, SS – 44% /
COT Extreme / C – 326, LS – 335 report COT extreme /
Similarly to NZD, we have both major cot signals backing a decline.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Corn
COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS – 24%, SS – 12% /
Without any extreme present in the market, we have only got the cot change signal that can guide us in our trading. The cot change signal is bearish and since prices were going higher last week, it is a bit easier to act upon the signal.

Platinum
COT Extreme / C - 414, LS – 422 report COT extreme /
Stress levels have been building up towards the bullish side for over a year now. They have reached a level that we haven’t had for the last 8 years now. Is this the time to enter long? Cautiousness is advised, extremes can grow for many weeks, months before we see a change in the trend.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Extreme / C – 217, LS – 219 report COT extreme /
Such a beautiful picture we have here! Huge bearish cot extreme when prices are near resistance levels --> may be a good trade, who knows...

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Canadian Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C – 12%, LS – 14% /
COT Extreme / C – 234 report COT extreme /
Bearish cot change signal combined with a bearish cot extreme signal. We should start searching for short opportunities.

Mexican Peso
COT Extreme / C - 216, LS – 216 report COT extreme /
Not surprisingly we have very similar situation in the Mexican Peso…

USD Index
COT Extreme / C – 172, LS – 172 report COT extreme /
Large specs are net short! Check the chart to see what happened in the past every time they became short.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Dow Jones-30
COT Change (52W) / C – 36%, LS – 34% /
COT Extreme / C, LS All Time COT extreme /
Ok, now this may be a trap… If you scram your analysis, you might go short right away: Huge bearish cot change signal accompanied by a all-time bearish cot extreme signal. But (!) Price has fallen last week already, so the change signal is late. The extreme signal has to be back checked by the rest of the gang --> S&P, Nasdaq, Russel. Because of the significant correlation between these markets, it’s always important to analyze them all.

Natural Gas
COT Extreme / SS – 194 report COT extreme /
Here we can see a great example for Small Speculators cot extreme signal. 194 report extreme… ok, not an all time, but still pretty large. Have a look at the chart and see how well these extremes signaled bottoms in the price.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C – 15%, LS – 17% /
COT Extreme / SS – 177 report COT extreme /
Small speculators are still supporting further declines. In the near term the bullish cot change signal suggest a bit of a rise.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-400
COT Change (52W) / C – 16%, LS – 7%, SS – 23% /
We have a bullish cot change signal in a bearish cot extreme place Ok, this level of extreme has been in the market for over a year now and nothing really happened, prices continued their rise.

Dow Jones-30
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Huge, never seen before bearish extreme in this market! Still… I advise caution here: bullish extreme in russel, Nasdaq and can’t see any significant bearish extreme in s&P.

Sugar
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
This market seems to be giving us a good investment opportunity. I used the term “Investment”, because the report suggests a shift in the trend. Prices are likely going to move higher.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Windlesham1]

Congrats on you persistence and devotion to the passion that is trading- we are always bearish -
We make much more from the downside when the dumb money gets scared

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Cotton
COT Change (52W) / C – 20%, LS – 20%, SS – 16% /
Only the change in Traders positions is what we can act upon: the signal is bearish. It is not backed by the cot extreme signal, so maybe not the best signal, but still good to know.

Euro
COT Extreme / LS – 330 report COT extreme /
Pretty large bearish cot extreme in Euro, but caution is advised, this could go on longer…

Rough Rice
COT Extreme / C - 304, LS – 311 report COT extreme /
Pretty nice bearish extreme in Rice… If you trade rice and you see opportunity on the downside, it’s good to know that the cot report is backing you

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Lean Hogs
COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS – 17%, SS – 30% /
COT Extreme / SS – All Time COT extreme /
Both major cot signals are indicating higher prices on the horizon… We have a bullish cot change signal, an all time bullish cot extreme is Small Specs (LS and C are not at their all time extremes, but definitely closer to their bullish extreme)

Russel-2000
COT Extreme / C, LS – 477 report COT extreme /
VERY interesting picture here… Prices near all time highs, but at the same time, we have a bullish cot extreme.

Mexican Peso
COT Extreme / C - 223, LS – 223 report COT extreme /
Prices are unable to go any higher, but we are not that surprised, when we have a 223 report bearish cot extreme.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Australian Dollar
COT Extreme / C, LS – 231 report COT extreme /
Pretty large bearish cot extreme signal is the Australian Dollar. Check out the chart, you can see I have indicated all the major bearish extremes in the past 5 years. It is hard to tell exactly when the turning point comes, but it is for sure that the stress level in this market has reached an extreme.

USD Index
COT Extreme / C, LS – 180 report COT extreme /
Commercials are again LONG!! We haven’t seen this for a long time now… Check the chart and see what happened to the USD Index after Commercials became net long.

British Pound
COT Change (52W) / C – 33%, LS – 37%, SS – 10% /
COT Extreme / C - 99, LS – 97 report COT extreme /
The bearish extreme here is not as strong as it is in AUD, but it should still be taken into consideration. What we have here compared the previous two markets is an unquestionable cot change signal (bearish) --> Traders have changed their positions pretty dynamically.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-400
COT Change (52W) / C – 33%, LS – 17%, SS – 37% /
COT Index (5y) / C – 8%, LS – 85% /
Both major cot signals are pointing downwards: the large change in traders positions at such price levels suggest a bit of a pullback early this week, but the bearish cot extreme also indicates that chances of a stable continuation of the rally is decreasing.

Heating Oil
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Get ready for a top… The picture can’t be any clearer

Canadian Dollar
COT Extreme / C - 244, LS – 254 report COT extreme /
Here we have a bearish extreme plus 3 week decline already which proves that the signal can be considered effective. We could experience a rebound, but in the medium to long term time horizon, I’d be betting on lower prices.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

30-Year Bond
COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 27%, SS – 16% /
Large bullish cot change signal, plus a bit more bullish extreme. My bet is upwards

Canadian Dollar
COT Extreme / C - 245, LS – 256 report COT extreme /
The bearish extreme that has turned the price down in the CAD has widened further which in my opinion support even lower prices.

British Pound
COT Extreme / C - 165, LS – 159 report COT extreme /
Pretty much the same picture as in CAD.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

S&P-400
COT Change (52W) / C – 15%, LS – 7%, SS – 21% /
Bearish cot change signal (not really strong, I’d put it aside) and a still bearish extreme. Conclusion would be to go short, but we are talking about an index and you can see how indexes reacted to bearish extremes in the past…

Euro
COT Extreme / LS – 335 report COT extreme /
Significant bearish extreme is still present in the market --> we can expect further decline in the market.

Canadian Dollar
COT Extreme / C - 246, LS – 257 report COT extreme /
Interesting, but the bearish extreme in the Canadian Dollar does not seem to weaken even though prices have started falling. In my view this support further weakness in the market.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

5-Year Note
COT Change (52W) / C – 35%, LS – 36%, SS – 23% /
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Possibly the BEST combination we can wish for! Not only do we have huge sudden changes in Traders positions (bullish cot signal), but this is happening, when we have stress levels in the market that we have never witnessed in the past! Beautiful bullish picture!

Lean Hogs
COT Extreme / SS – All Time COT extreme /
Interesting to see on Small Speculators signaling a direction! Of course this is just a good example for us to know: maybe they are “small”, but they definitely count! Have a look at that happened back in the end of 2013 (see attached chart). We had a pretty much similar situation as now. If it is not clear: we have a bullish signal from the report.

Canadian Dollar
COT Index (3yr) / C – 1%, LS – 99%, SS – 94% /
Not much change from last week, further weakness on the horizon.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Swiss Frank
COT Change (52W) / C – 17%, LS – 21% /
Both of our major signals are pointing upwards. Maybe the extreme could be even larger --> that would be a more comfortable situation.

Coffee
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture is crystal clear, we have a huge stress in coffee and we can expect it to erupt soon!

Feeder Cattle
COT Extreme / C – All Time COT extreme /
Commercials have never been as short (net) as they are now --> huge bearish cot signal, but caution is advised, I would not be surprised if prices would continue to rise a little bit more.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Swiss Frank
COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 28%, SS – 15% /
COT Index (3yr) / C - 83%, LS – 15%, SS – 22% /
Last week I said: “Both of our major signals are pointing upwards. Maybe the extreme could be even larger --> that would be a more comfortable situation.” Well that is what happened, we have now reached an even greater extreme! Things are becoming pretty supporting for CHF.

5-Year Note
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Beautiful! There is nothing better, when we have a bullish all time cot extreme signal at deep low prices!

10-Year Note
COT Extreme / SS – 606 report COT extreme /
The picture is not as bullish as it is for 5-year note, but small specs are pretty pessimistic about the market and that is definitely a good sign for higher prices.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

5-Year Note
COT Change (52W) / C – 19%, LS – 22% /
Although we have a bearish cot change signal, due to the bullish extreme in the market, caution is advised!

Curde Oil
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
All Time bearish extreme in Crude Oil (also in Heating Oil) which signals the end of higher prices.

Swiss Franc
COT Extreme / C – 101, LS - 232 report COT extreme /
I hope you were following me here If you check my previous posts, you will see.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Soybean Meal
COT Change (52W) / C – 16%, LS – 17% /
Bearish cot change signal and bearish extreme situation close to good resistance levels.

Curde Oil
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The all-time cot extreme has widened further, so my remark on caution was valid last time.

Swiss Franc
COT Extreme / LS - 284 report COT extreme /
Further increase in the extreme, although price is headed higher.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[russian_trader]

Hi! What you think about oil market?