Best Thread Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Mexican Peso
COT Change (52W) / C – 41%, LS – 43% /
Generally speaking, the picture looks bullish, but we have got a bearish cot change signal and it seems that price were unable to stop declining even though we has a major cot extreme signal. We may need to wait a few more weeks and possibly a clearer cot signal.

Live Cattle
COT Extreme / C - 311, LS – 799 report COT extreme /
We have a close to all time cot extreme in this market, yet prices are dynamically falling. This set up is always hard, but nevertheless it seems to be good trade! We may just need to be more patient.

Coffee
COT Extreme / C - 96, LS – 96 report COT extreme /
Last week we saw a strong Thursday and Friday… are we over the bottom? Stay tuned, this market has great potential!


All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Sugar
COT Change (52W) / C – 38%, LS – 33%, SS – 31% /
We have a larger cot change then average, but hey (!), look at the larger picture: we are not far off from a huge bullish cot extreme. Prices are just simply reacting to that. It’s possible to see a bit of a decline in the next few days, a bit of a rebound, but I’d focus on the larger picture.

Lumber
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
I LOVE THESE SCENARIOS! Do I need to say anything here?! Come on… It is soooo obvious

Feeder Cattle
COT Extreme / LS - 115, SS – 114 report COT extreme /
Large bullish cot extreme in the market suggesting higher prices coming. Caution for two reasons: Extreme has plenty of space to widen + dynamic decline present.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Mexican Peso
COT Change (52W) / C – 39%, LS – 40%, SS – 13% /
We have a bearish cot change signal, but at the same time we are not that far away from a bullish extreme. We could assume a drop in prices in the near future, but on a larger time horizon, to me the picture is bullish.

Lumber
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
Well, what can I say… If you were following this thread last week, you shouldn’t be surprised to see Lumber rallying.

Feeder Cattle
COT Extreme / LS - 116, SS – 116 report COT extreme /
From last week’s price movements in FC, it seems that the relative bullish cot extreme has taken its effect. We may as well be prepared for further increases coming.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Euro
COT Change (52W) / C – 28%, LS – 26%, SS – 27% /
Bullish cot change signal coming after a rebound in the recent rally. Let’s not forget that the rally was signaled well earlier by the bullish cot extreme in the market. It is still in place / at least we do not have a serious bearish cot extreme signal yet.

Silver
COT Extreme / C – 380, LS – 515 report COT extreme /
I’m keeping it short: Bearish cot extreme.

Sugar
COT Extreme / C – 74, LS - 68, SS – 102 report COT extreme /
Time for selling / exiting longs… at least that is what the recent cot report suggests.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

RBOB Gasoline
COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS – 6%, SS – 53% /
The cot change signal is bearish, could push prices lower the next few days. The larger picture: Small Specs were heavily pessimistic last week, I’d say that is a strong bullish signal. Because of the support levels not far, it may be a good risk/reward trade.

Sugar
COT Extreme / C – 104, LS - 75, SS – 105 report COT extreme /
Heavily bearish sign from the cot report. Prices were unable to sustain the gains of early last week, this supports the bearish picture.

Platinum
COT Extreme / C – 39, LS – 59 report COT extreme /
In the past year, we had a rather bullish picture presented in the cot report, but prices continued their decline. The extreme we have at the moment is far away from being able to influence the market, so the decline can easily continue.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Platinum
COT Change (52W) / C – 35%, LS – 43%, SS – 21% /
Large bullish cot change signal combined with a bullish extreme = Very positive for the market!

Wheat (Kansas)
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
All Time cot extreme /bullish/ --> says it all: We should expect prices to bottom soon, and start rallying. Caution of course is advised (!) --> the extreme can grow larger, while prices head downwards, so we may need to wait a few more weeks. Keep your eyes open!

Coffee
COT Extreme / C – 104, LS – 104 report COT extreme /
I think the chart gives us a clear picture: Prices are ready to RALLY!!

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Cocoa
COT Change (52W) / C – 33%, LS – 33%, SS – 17% /
Both of our main cot signals are bullish. The change was much larger than average, but the extreme is also relatively large. Although prices may continue their decline (the extreme can widen further), a bit of an upwards price reaction could be in place.

Copper
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
Large Speculators have never held such large short positions in the past, we do have an all time cot extreme situation, a very large bullish signal. As it is clearly visible on the chart, even if these signals were unable to change the Trend drastically, they did stop the decline temporarily.

Palladium
COT Extreme / C – 188, LS – 187 report COT extreme /
The picture is very similar to what we can see in copper. The cot extreme is huge! Here we can also find Small Specs being very pessimistic about the market and as you can see on the chart, that always signaled the end for a decline.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

New Zealand Dollar
COT Change (52W) / C – 17%, LS – 15%, SS – 24% /
The last major cot extreme signal was bullish and it is still in place. The larger cot change signal present is also bullish.

Copper
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The extreme has widened further since last week. Much has not changed, so we can still state that the picture is very bullish. This of course does not mean that we should jump right in the market, these extremes can exist for many weeks or even months before any price reaction.

Soybean Meal
COT Extreme / C – 213, LS – 571 report COT extreme /
With the exception of Small Specs, who were net short, the picture is very similar to what we had back in 2011. Nevertheless the signal is huge, very bullish. I very much like this market!!

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Platinum
COT Change (52W) / C – 45%, LS – 41%, SS – 19% /
It looks as if prices started to react to bullish cot extreme signal that has been present in the market for some time now. We should not be surprised to see such a larger change in Traders positions. It may influence prices and push them back in the near term, but let’s not forget that the stronger cot signal is the extreme!

Wheat (Kansas)
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
When we reach and all time cot extreme in a market, there is not too much I can add, the picture is pretty obvious. The only important note I may add is that these extremes can go on for many weeks before price starts to react!

Cotton
COT Extreme / C – 52, LS – 52 report COT extreme /
We have a relative bullish cot extreme in the market, but caution is advised: with even greater extremes (second half of 2014 for example) the market may still head downwards.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Lumber
COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS – 32%, SS – 23% /
The cot change signal indicates that prices can fall on the near future, but a cot extreme is still bullish.

Wheat (Chicago)
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture is very clear: all time cot extreme, HUGE bullish signal.

Soybean Meal
COT Extreme / C – 576, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture is very clear: all time cot extreme, HUGE bullish signal.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Mexican Peso
COT Change (52W) / C – 36%, LS – 36%, SS – 21% /
We have a change in Traders positions that is much larger than average and it is a bearish cot signal. Prices have gone down last week Thursday, so the signal may be a little late for us. The cot extreme is relatively bearish and as you can see on the chart, when it reached these levels the last two times, prices went further down. The longer term picture of course is definitely bullish, we are far away from All Time or close to AT bearish cot extreme leves.

Silver
COT Extreme / C – 541, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture is very clear: all time cot extreme, HUGE bearish signal.

Japanese Yen
COT Extreme / C – 421, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture is very clear: all time cot extreme, HUGE bearish signal.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Crude Oil
COT Change (52W) / C – 33%, LS – 37%, SS – 53% /
Both of our main cot signals are bearish. We have a huge cot change signal (largest in the past 52 weeks) and we have reached a significant cot extreme level also. Of course caution is advised, these extremes can become much larger, but nevertheless, we have a bearish picture from the report.

Sugar
COT Extreme / C – 435 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture is very clear: all time cot extreme, HUGE bearish signal.

Lumber
COT Extreme / C – 164, LS – 166 report COT extreme /
Not an all time cot extreme like in Sugar, but still significant showing us that the rally may be over soon…

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

Sorry for being away for so long… I’m back again

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Crude Oil
COT Change (52W) / C – 19%, LS – 23%, SS – 47% /
Having a more or less neutral cot extreme picture in the market it is only the change signal (which is bearish) that we can act on if have to. Although it is large and visible, I would only take it into consideration if besides cot analysis my view would be bearish.

S&P-400
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture is very clear and obvious, but in case of indexes, the “correlation factor” should not be neglected. It is very important to have a look at other markets as well, such as Nasdaq, Dow and the S&P-500.

British Pound
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Another all time cot extreme signal, now in a currency. Currencies react well to cot signals, so we can expect the GBP to move higher on this bullish signal, but (!) don’t forget that these all time cot extreme can be in the market for many weeks before anything happens.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Feeder Cattle
COT Change (52W) / C – 41%, LS – 22%, SS – 8% /
The trend in FC is still bearish. We have had a bit of a rise in prices in recent weeks after the cot report was showing a bullish cot extreme, but now we have this large cot change signal that support price actions in the direction of the main trend.

S&P-500
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
Last week it was only S&P-400, but now we have S&P-500 following. This just further supports the fact that stress levels in indexes are rising rapidly.

British Pound
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The all time cot extreme is still present, stress levels are rising. As I have said it last week, this picture may stay the same for many weeks or even months before we see a reaction in price.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Copper
COT Change (52W) / C – 35%, LS – 31%, SS – 26% /
Although the cot change signal indicates that prices could jump up now, because of the strength of the bearish cot extreme that we had, I think we should be cautious with any buying now.

S&P-500
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture did not change from last week, let’s be patient!

Dow Jones-30
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The third index to have all time cot extreme in Large speculators positions. This definitely strengthens the cot extreme signal in general for indexes as a whole.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[bidwgu]

Hi Duncan,
Thanks for the regular posts. Any idea what's going on with the cot base website? I'm getting a message saying the domain name has expired and a quick google search does show the domain name was due to expire on 11th Sep 2016.Hope this isn't the end of the service.

 

[Dunstan]

Hi Duncan,
Thanks for the regular posts. Any idea what's going on with the cot base website? I'm getting a message saying the domain name has expired and a quick google search does show the domain name was due to expire on 11th Sep 2016.Hope this isn't the end of the service.

Hi,

I was out of town for a couple of days... I don't seem to experience such problems, the cotbase.com is working for me.

All the best,
Dunstan

 

[bidwgu]

Hi Dunstan (got your name right this time),
Yes it's working fine for me now as well. Domain register company messed up apparently.

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

USD Index
COT Change (52W) / C – 41%, LS – 46%, SS – 1% /
The change in traders positions was huge! This could mean that the dollar index will fall a bit beginning of this week. The cot extreme does not show too much. I would say that it supports the continuation of the rise.

Heating Oil
COT Extreme / C,LS – 189 report COT extreme /
We have a very clear bearish cot extreme signal, but caution is advised, since we can easily see further increases in stress levels before the actual top comes.

Crude Oil
COT Extreme / C - 116, LS – 117 report COT extreme /
Similarly to Heating Oil (of course not unexpectedly due to the natural correlation between these markets), we have a bearish cot extreme that is large enough to be taken into consideration in our trading.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts

 

[Dunstan]

Hi everyone,

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

Wheat
COT Change (52W) / C – 35%, LS – 29%, SS – 5% /
Bullish cot change signal and a relatively bullish extreme in the market, so we can state that the cot report definitely supports higher prices.

Soybean Oil
COT Extreme / C – 1370 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The picture is crystal clear: we have an all time bearish cot extreme --> expect a top soon.

Nasdaq-100
COT Extreme / C – 619 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
A very large bearish cot extreme here, but before any sudden moves, I advise you to check the other indexes as well.

All the best,
Dunstan

COT Charts