ES Trading

[new_trader]

Trade Update

I've also opened a new position going into 2018. This is a micro-gold futures contract MGC Dec 2018 expiry. I plan to hold it until near expiry as it is a deliverable contract. My broker doesn't allow taking delivery. Besides, it's a 10oz accumulation certificate not physical gold.

87,530

SOLD: MGCZ8 @ 1328.00
Net Profit: US$612.10

BUY: MGCJ9 @ 1342.3



I am fully transparent with my trades... unlike the weak hands in this forum



GC @ 1309.1
ES @ 2646.25





95,803

 

[new_trader]

Gold & The FED

If my figuring is correct the price target for gold[GC] is US$1340 by the next FED meeting scheduled for JUNE 12-13/2018.

DXY is going down down down...

GC @ 1311.1
ES @ 2627.75





96,084

 

[new_trader]

Economic Slowdown? I think so!

Gold[GC] didn't hit my target(US$1340) and this is an ominous sign for the US economy. The stock market hasn't made a new high since January. A simple Economic Activity Index that I developed is also indicating a slowdown. The US Fed thinks they can keep raising rates...I have my doubts about that. I am still holding MGCJ9.




GC @ 1258.3
ES @ 2715.75






98,676

 

[new_trader]

Gold & The economy

If my figuring is right then GOLD[GC] will bottom out around this level with a possible dip into the low 1240's next week. My EOY forecast is US$1380-

My Economic Activity Index is 96.57. It will be interesting to see how it ends the year.

GC @ 1254.2
ES @ 2720.75





99,019

 

[new_trader]

Party like it's 2006

Bond-Stock Clash Has Just Begun as Inflation Looms
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...sh-has-just-begun-as-inflation-bogeyman-looms

And it’s all thanks to our Central Bankers who create bubbles with their inflationary monetary policies and then burst them again. How on earth can any adult with a brain believe that these people are the ones who give us financial stability?

As far as what happens next: IMO, the Central Bankers, unfortunately, are going to have to act again in some way to ‘save’ the markets from the mess that they themselves created. They will try and talk the market back up again and if that fails they will reflate the market again via their misguided monetary policies, again!

Whatever they do, this is appears to me to be the start of the beginning of the end of this bull market in stocks, especially if the market starts making new highs in the near future, as I suspect it will.

It seems like only yesterday the Central Bankers were saying inflation is good for us.

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it"
-George Santayana





GC @ 1318.1
ES @ 2621.50





91,275

The stock market is making new highs as I suspected and by doing so is moving closer to the end of this bull market. The market is not displaying any characteristics that it is topping out yet but I am predicting it will begin happening within the next 12 months give or take, but I will wait until the market gives me clearer indications before I commit to any action.

Gold (GC) is looking like it has bottomed out on this retrace. It may move below US1200 on the NFP release but it would be typical of the price action of gold(GC) over the last few weeks and not related in any way to the ‘NEWS’ itself.
I expect that it won’t be long before gold(GC) starts to rally like Crude Oil(CL). You can almost overlay the charts to see where gold(GC) is headed!

Importantly(!) US interest rates and Crude Oil are rising and this is going to start having a real impact on the US economy. If this trend continues the US economy will go into recession...while going into an Election(?)


GC @ 1203.0
ES @ 2904.25





102,907

 

[new_trader]

Suckers dip

[edit]

Importantly(!) US interest rates and Crude Oil are rising and this is going to start having a real impact on the US economy. If this trend continues the US economy will go into recession...while going into an Election(?)


GC @ 1203.0
ES @ 2904.25

Global markets tumble; U.S. stock futures point to continued selloff on Wall Street
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gl...o-continued-selloff-on-wall-street-2018-10-11

What’s driving the market?

In part, analysts have blamed a rise in long-dated Treasury yields. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.03% hit a more-than-seven year high above 3.26% early Tuesday. Yields and debt prices move in opposite directions.

A rise in yields raises borrowing costs for corporations and investors, and has caused investors to take another look at equity valuations, which some have been saying are far too lofty. Equities also lose their allure when stacked up against higher rates for risk-free bonds. However, rising yields are also seen as a reflection of a strong economy, one that has been supported by a number of strong economic data points.

The tape is telling me that this is just a correction, but it is a 'suckers dip' i.e. People who buy this dip will make money when stocks rally to new highs. This will embolden them and they will buy the next dip, so will their friends and relatives who see them making money. They will all lose whatever money they made and more buying the last dip which isn't too far away...the tape never lies.


GC @ 1201.2
ES @ 2778.75







103,275

 

[new_trader]

ES1950:Target Hit.


My figuring was 100% correct. Target hit. So much for all the Chicken Little dunces and their “Sell in May and go away” doctrine. The markets are going to the moon; Inflationary boom!


This isn’t an official forecast but I’d say this market has another +50% to go before there is any major correction. There is a kind of hubris starting to develop...just as one would expect in an inflationary boom. Although I’m not posting much these days I still read posts on Trade2win. It’s important for me to keep in touch with how the ‘public’ is thinking!

The psychopathic Central Planners continue their financial repression while trying to brainwash you into believing that inflation is good for you. By my reckoning the next financial crisis isn’t too far away, probably around 2016-2017, but it might just be possible for the insane and psychotic Central Planners to INFLATE-REPRESS-DENY for longer than even I can imagine. But make no mistake; the Central Planners have every intention of inflating their way out this predicament. So even when (if) they start to raise interest rates it will only be a token effort to make it look as if their over leveraged economies are stronger. They will raise rates so impossibly slowly, in absurdly tiny increments to ensure they are always a long way behind the inflation curve. Don’t expect to see any Gerald Ford style “Whip Inflation Now” campaigns...that is from a bygone era when Central Planners kept inflation to a minimum as opposed to today where they are doing the very opposite. The poor and low income earners will suffer, but they are disregarded. All that matters is the deflation bogeyman is destroyed.

I notice that all the retarded Socialists aren’t concerned about anything. The clueless imbeciles who claimed that Socialism bailed out Capitalism during the 2008 panic and then jumped on the “Occupy” bandwagon don’t see any problems with what the Central Planners have created. They are probably so stupid that they believe this is a real economic recovery made possible by the “Massive Advantage” a Central Bank has with control of the money supply.

They aren’t expressing any concerns about the grotesque distortions in the economy which are the direct result of Central Planner intervention since 2008 and prior! They are so clueless they actually believe the establishment media propaganda who tells them we are experiencing real economic growth rather than inflationary growth.

But when the next crisis comes they will be the ones screaming at the top of their voice that Capitalism got out of control and “greedy” bankers are to blame. They won’t tell us exactly when the Socialist Central Planners handed the economy over to Capitalism. Their trick is more of a “heads they win tails we lose” situation. They will try and convince you that when things appeared to be good, it was thanks to the policies of our Socialist Central Planners and things went wrong when they allowed Capitalism to take over.

But I know the truth and so should everyone who has been reading my journal. Unlike the last Financial Crisis where only a few understood what was really going on and accurately forecasted the crisis, everybody should see the next financial crisis coming. There are no excuses this time.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1077231267559755776

Trump has it mostly right. Although he should have written: "The only problem the world economies have are Central Bankers." and left it there.


105,596

 

[new_trader]

This was a projection I made for the ES back in early January (07/01/2019)

Not bad considering where the ES is today (12/03/2019)

This is the projection I made for GC...let's see how it works out!

GC @ 1295.8
ES @ 2795.25

107,080

 

[new_trader]

Suckers dip

Global markets tumble; U.S. stock futures point to continued selloff on Wall Street
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gl...o-continued-selloff-on-wall-street-2018-10-11


The tape is telling me that this is just a correction, but it is a 'suckers dip' i.e. People who buy this dip will make money when stocks rally to new highs. This will embolden them and they will buy the next dip, so will their friends and relatives who see them making money. They will all lose whatever money they made and more buying the last dip which isn't too far away...the tape never lies.


GC @ 1201.2
ES @ 2778.75

It's all happening! The ES has hit the '3' handle for the first time, closing at 3001.00 and how goes the ES, how goes gold!
Before this new gold bull market is over gold will hit US$3000oz...guaranteed. My advice, don't be like the average Trade2Win member who only gets giddy about an asset when it starts making all-time highs.
You're welcome.

GC @ 1421.5
ES @ 3001.00




108,896

 

[new_trader]

Re: Gold

The time for silly talk, pretty coloured lines and magic round numbers is over. I'm going to start buying physical gold next week. I'll begin with 1 ounce and will double down with every $US100 price drop. $100/ounce is neither here nor there when looking at the big picture.

The simple case for gold: Deflation is the bogeyman that Central Planners all around the world use to justify their inflationary policies. The mainstream Anal-ists are telling us that the price of gold is falling because there is no inflation, which is utter B.S. They refer to inflation as being the Government fudged CPI figures that only a dimwit would believe. But US Treasuries don't lie...unless it is the Central Planners doing the buying with money created out of thin air. The U.S FED is in a dilemma and gold will ultimately reveal the truth.

All the Technical Anal-ists are pointing to US$1000 being the target price for gold because it is a sexy round number, but none of them can explain why $2000 wasn't sexy enough in 2011...go figure...

While I don't doubt that $1000 can be hit, or $900 or even $800...I'm not trying to pick the bottom with gold. I am buying as much as I can afford before it makes its inevitable ascent to $US2000 and beyond. I have a goal of owning a certain number of ounces and I am nowhere near that goal because the price took off in 2011.

Gold is going to be my "Jesse Livermore" trade...I will either go bankrupt or make a killing...although I'm not using any margin, I'm buying outright...


As always: DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH!


24,886

Approx 5 years later I reached that goal and made my last purchase of physical gold in December 2018. I am now Long 203oz physical gold, owned outright in safe storage. I am still adding to my physical silver position [currently 2020oz]. In addition to this I own derivatives and stocks related to gold. I will only add to my physical gold position if it dips below $US1300


GC @ 1401.2
ES @ 2991.75



109,746

 

[new_trader]

This post from deadbroke fibo_trader is getting locked in my MONKEY CAGE for all to see. Nobody goes against new_trader and thinks they can escape accountability.

Tuesday August 20th, 2019 at 7:27 PM

Gold:

Small traders (T2W and ET and such) together with Large speculators are always on the wrong side of major epic junctures. they are always opposite of the Commercial Hedgers.


New_Trader can buy again at $700. Now watch the outright anger that Fibo could make such a statement - that Gold is going to $700 over the next several months and that that would be THE PLACE TO BUY BIG-TIME. Now is not the time to buy, its the time to be unloading = selling. Waiting for the next trendline if any, otherwise there ought to be fireworkds when we get to 61.8% at 1582

To be released from my MONKEY CAGE:

Gold price MUST fall to USD700 over the next several months. Since 'several' is not exact, I will give deadbroke fibo_trader until the end of 2019 for the fall to USD700. If gold never falls to USD700 by the end of 2019 then the above post from deadbroke fibo_trader will stay in my MONKEY CAGE, where it belongs!

several (determiner)
Consisting of a number more than two but not very many; diverse.

GC @ 1536.9
ES @ 2851.50


111,753

 

[new_trader]

Your Honor, pls add this gent to the list of T2W untouchables who achieved this lofty status by not trading live

Violet (counter-violent), malaguti, barjon, tomorten, timsk, Signalcalc, batsonar, Rufus_Leakey, postman, Atilla, Nowler, Dentalfloss, Pat494, new_trader, Dowser, postman

Since NVP brought up Mike Tyson, this is how a fight between any of these untouchables and Mike Tyson would go down. And here's the kicker: a fight between Mike Tyson and Mr. Financial Market would go down even faster with Tyson as the loser EVERY DAMN TIME

Questioning my trading ability is one thing but making a slur about my trading integrity has earned deadbroke fibo_trader an early lock-up in my monkey cage, never to be released.

GOLD
As far as this post about Gold falling to USD700 before the end of 2019 is concerned. It still stands. I have something else planned for deadbroke fibo_trader if Gold never hits USD700 by the end of 2019. deadbroke fibo_trader is shit-scared about that call because he has changed the timeframe from several months to several years...too bad deadbroke fibo_trader, you aren't getting an extension from me...here have some peanuts and keep shitposting, it's very entertaining.

Appeal to the mods: DON'T ban deadbroke fibo_trader, ever. I haven't finished yet.


GC @ 1468.7
ES @ 3119.00


114,057

 

[new_trader]

Suckers dip

Global markets tumble; U.S. stock futures point to continued selloff on Wall Street
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gl...o-continued-selloff-on-wall-street-2018-10-11

The tape is telling me that this is just a correction, but it is a 'suckers dip' i.e. People who buy this dip will make money when stocks rally to new highs. This will embolden them and they will buy the next dip, so will their friends and relatives who see them making money. They will all lose whatever money they made and more buying the last dip which isn't too far away...the tape never lies.


GC @ 1201.2
ES @ 2778.75

Wall Street is getting very bullish as stocks hit records. Here’s why that’s worrisome
Wall Street is getting very bullish as stocks hit records. Here’s why that’s worrisome

As the S&P 500 has broken out of its trading range into record highs, euphoria has been growing — fast.

Way back in October 2018 new_trader warned it was a sucker's dip and that stocks will rally to new highs. Meanwhile shitposters were calling a bear market and going short

This is why new_trader makes money and shitposters are deadbroke!​

GC @ 1460.7
ES @ 3124.00




114,161

 

[new_trader]

Looks like shitposter can't count to save their life, or trade, or both!

This is why new_trader makes money and shitposter is deadbroke! ​

GC @ 1495.1
ES @ 3229.00




115,275

 

[new_trader]

Once upon a time new_trader started buying gold and when the price fell all the detractors laughed and said "that's too bad, gold will fall below USD1000" and new trader said "maybe". A while later the price of gold started to rise and all the detractors said "bitcoin is better" and new_trader said "maybe". When the price of gold started to fall again all the detractors said "that's too bad, nobody wants gold because the world economy is improving" and new_trader said "maybe". A while later the price of gold started rising again and the latest detractor said "now is the time to sell because gold will fall to USD700" and new_trader said "maybe".

GC @ 1520.0
ES @ 3236.00


115,924

 

[new_trader]

Jun 9, 2014 I wrote The markets are going to the moon; Inflationary boom!

Gold (GC) closed the day @ 1253.9, it closed 2019 @ 1520.0 a gain of +21.2%
The S&P500 (ES) closed the day @ 1950.25, it closed 2019 @ 3236.00 a gain of +65.9%

The tape is telling me this bull market isn't about to end yet, but it is giving me warning signs. The next 12 - 24 months are going to get interesting.



115,973

 

[new_trader]

The fear of WW3 is making the zombies buy gold and pushing the price higher for now. I figure today's opening gap will be closed at some point.

If you sold gold on the 20th August 2019 like deadbroke fibo_trader advised and had the brains and foresight to close your position at the ‘bottom’ of the move, the result¹ is:

Sell @ 1518.8
Buy @ 1446.2
Total Profit: 72.6 +4.78%

BUT(!) if you are following strictly what deadbroke fibo_trader advised and still holding your short gold position for ‘the’ move to 700, then my advice is to widen your stop if it hasn’t been hit yet, and, add more margin to your account. You never know what Iran or the US will do next!

If you took the advice of new_trader and bought gold on 3rd July 2019 and sold at the ‘top’ of the move then the result¹ is:

Buy @ 1414.7
Sell @ 1590.9
Total Profit: 176.2 +12.45% (More than TWICE the profit of deadbroke fibo_trader's trade!)

Once again, new_trader’s greatest ally – the market – makes a complete and utter fool of deadbroke fibo_trader.

This is why new_trader makes money and fibo_trader is deadbroke! ​

There is hope though, if you keep reading my trading journal you will learn how to trade and invest properly.



1. Assuming the trade is made at the very top and bottom of the range


GC @ 1578.4
ES @ 3211.00


116,208

 

[new_trader]

I ran out of deputies already. Now I'm running out of colors. See below

I didn’t need to GOOGLE any of what I am about to teach you because I am a bit of a geek and like to know things on a much, much deeper level than you. Probably why I enjoy tape reading and technical analysis do much!

There is a choice of 16,777,216 (256 x 256 x 256) colours so you would not have run out unless you needed more than that. I can only assume that like most people you haven’t got the foggiest idea what HEX means because like everything else, you only understand things on a very superficial level.

Not to worry, I said that you will learn by reading my trading journal so let me explain:

HEX is short for HEXADECIMAL which is a base 16 number system. This means that unlike decimal which is a base 10 number system from 0 – 9, HEX includes 6 more characters – A,B,C,D,E,F each representing 10,11,12,13,14,15.

When you select the TEXT colour option, you will notice a text box that allows you to enter a HEX colour value. The value is entered in the standard primary colour order - RED, GREEN, and BLUE (RGB) using a 2 character HEX value for each.

N.B. Before the artists have a hissy fit, the human eye only perceives electromagnetic radiation within the frequency range called ‘light’ which is an ADDITIVE mixing process.

The reason RGB is used and referred to as the primary colours is because the vast majority of human eyes are only sensitive to these 3 colours. It is our brain that combines them through a process called additive mixing, and creates the vast variety of colours we perceive. Below is an example of HEX values for different colours:

Primary Colours

If you wanted pure RED, enter the HEX value: FF0000

If you wanted pure GREEN, enter the HEX value: 00FF00

If you wanted pure BLUE, enter the HEX value: 0000FF

Secondary colours

CYAN: 00FFFF

MAGENTA: FF00FF

YELLOW: FFFF00

If you want any other colour mix I suggest you GOOGLE the colour name followed by the phrase HEX value or just experiment.

especially note the observation about new_trader's lifetime investment in gold in 2013 he put evry penny of his nest egg in Gold and sat thru' an entire drawdown for 3 years and is now yapping that he is profitable. he lost his entire net worth 4 times in 2013-2016. The market now has not even gotten up to where he got killed. That he is still alive is therfore due to the fact that he is playing DEMO not real money.

see (3) below in quote

Q.E.D.

What you are doing is called Psychological projection...are you bitter because new_trader started investing in gold long before you did?

That’s beside the point. What you need to do is make up your mind once and for all:

1. Did new_trader invest every penny in gold?
2. Is new_trader only playing DEMO not real money?

It can only be 1 or 2, not both. Make your mind up now and stick to that narrative, your constant switching between the two is making you look unhinged.


GC @ 1568.7
ES @ 3250.00





116,304

 

[new_trader]

Yes, let's have a look at its other calls all up in the link in above posts but here's another stunner .......................

especially note the observation about new_trader's lifetime investment in gold in 2013 he put evry penny of his nest egg in Gold and sat thru' an entire drawdown for 3 years and is now yapping that he is profitable. he lost his entire net worth 4 times in 2013-2016. The market now has not even gotten up to where he got killed. That he is still alive is therfore due to the fact that he is playing DEMO not real money.

"new_trader survived the market gyrations as if he were trading demo. Nobody else could do that."



GC @ 1591.1
ES @ 3230.25





116,406

 

[new_trader]

Gold broke out of a weekly bull flag starting 23 December 2019, which is before the assasination of the Iranian major general - Qasem Soleimani. While there is no doubt the current tension between the US and Iran has extended the breakout, I think the breakout is a significant development and figure there will be a retrace to flush out the zombies before the next move higher.

​

Do your own research.​

GC @ 1582.0
ES @ 3231.75






116,422