If I was to ignore all the news about the current bogeyman and just focus on what the tape is telling me,
I would say the ES is going to find support in the low 2200’s (+/- 150). I am always prepared to be wrong and learn something new in the process, however it was my reading of the tape that got me into stocks near the 2009 lows and kept me in stocks throughout the US debt downgrade, GREXIT, BREXIT, The trade ‘war’, that bogeyman, this bogeyman…etc…etc…
My forecast is this:
The next market rally will take stocks to a new nominal high and that will be the final high and end of this bull market. I can’t say exactly when that will happen, but my guess is that Donald Trump will do
‘whatever it takes’ to try and win the next election. He has claimed ownership of the stock market rally since his election, so the final rally could happen later this year.
Gold is acting like it did during the last crisis but with one major difference - DXY is over 100 and gold closed above USD1500. In other words, the gold price has remained strong despite the apparent strength is the USD.
The only reason there are unprecedented moves in the markets is because there has been unprecedented monetary and fiscal policies in place since the 2008 financial crisis. All the people who argued with me in this forum over the years about fiat money and Central Bankers…
THIS IS YOUR FINAL WAKE UP CALL. If you don’t ‘get it’ now,
YOU NEVER WILL.
"It makes NO DIFFERENCE what the pin is that bursts the bubble. It was Governments & Central Bankers that created the bubble in the first place."
Here are some reminders:
- What is money? Where does our money come from?
- Keynes Vs. Hayek
- Jun 9, 2014 - Financial Crisis forecast
- Nov 30, 2014 - We're headed for a great big worldwide recession!
- Mar 21, 2015 - Central Bankers make things worse
GC @ 1501.1
ES @ 2266.50
118,887