ES Trading

Failure of Keynesian Economics, again!

What I wrote almost 2 years ago:

Jun 9, 2014, 8:09am

The psychopathic Central Planners continue their financial repression while trying to brainwash you into believing that inflation is good for you. By my reckoning the next financial crisis isn’t too far away, probably around 2016-2017, but it might just be possible for the insane and psychotic Central Planners to INFLATE-REPRESS-DENY for longer than even I can imagine.

Bank of America: This Chart Shows 'Deteriorating Liquidity' Is at the Heart of Market Carnage
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...g-liquidity-is-at-the-heart-of-market-carnage


It looks like the Keynesian manufactured bubble is starting to deflate, right on schedule.:smart:

The establishment media propaganda is in overdrive trying to convince everyone that China is to blame but all it took was an itsy bitsy teenie weenie interest rate rise from The US FED...fᴜcking retarded Keynesians and their belief in fiat money and Central Bankers.:rolleyes:

DON’T BELEIVE THE “NOBODY COULD HAVE SEEN THIS COMING” BULL****!

The Trade2win dunces will blame Capitalism, again.:rolleyes:




ES @ 1837.50
GC @ 1192.7





63,075
 
We will, we won't!

In switch, Bullard warns against rate hikes, suggesting Fed's direction
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-bullard-idUSKCN0VR025

One of the U.S. Federal Reserve's most prominent advocates of higher interest rates on Wednesday declared it "unwise" to move any further in light of weak inflation and global volatility, suggesting the Fed is stepping further away from plans to continue to hike rates.


Laughing my fuсking ass off at the retarded Keynesian imbeciles!:LOL:

“We will hike rates”
Market goes down
“We won’t hike rates”
Market goes up

Next comes:

“We will hike rates”
Market goes down.
“We won’t hike rates”
Market still goes down
“We will launch Q.E.4”
Market goes up.
“We will end Q.E.4”
Market goes down
“We will launch Q.E.5”
Market goes up
“We will end Q.E.5”
Market goes down
“We will launch Q.E.6”

etc.




ES @ 1927.00
GC @ 1205.2






63,648
 
Diary of a trade

Some stops hit, new positions added. No SLAyers or GAYers or PRAYers in this journal, just a complete understanding of wot is wot and wot is not!:cheesy:

Current Status:
•Position size: 67.0%
•Profit target: 6.33%

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ES @ 2038.75
GC @ 1256.0


Let me remind you once again, please hold your 'likes' until the end.




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You were warned!

Why Voters Will Stay Angry
http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-angry-voters/

From the supporters of Donald Trump to the street protesters of southern Europe, voters around the world are mad as hell. Inequality, immigration, and the establishment's perceived indifference are firing up electorates in a way that's rarely been seen before. As these charts show, the forces shaping the disruption of global politics have been building for years and aren't about to diminish.


Of course the Government and Central Bank apologists will NEVER figure it out because they are absolute DUNCES!

Less Marx, More Mises!

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ES @ 2036.50
GC @ 1254.1





65,451
 

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Diary of a trade

No stops hit. No new positions added.

Current Status:
•Position size: 67.0%
•Profit target: 13.1%

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Previous Status.


ES @ 2060.25
GC @ 1294.9


Please hold your 'likes' until the end.





67,437
 

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Diary of a trade

No stops hit. No new positions added.

Current Status:
•Position size: 67.0%
•Profit target: 20.3%

attachment.php


Previous Status


ES @ 2177.50
GC @ 1341.4



Please hold your 'likes' until the end.




69,989
 

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Golden milestone

The time for silly talk, pretty coloured lines and magic round numbers is over. I'm going to start buying physical gold next week. I'll begin with 1 ounce and will double down with every $US100 price drop. $100/ounce is neither here nor there when looking at the big picture.

The simple case for gold: Deflation is the bogeyman that Central Planners all around the world use to justify their inflationary policies. The mainstream Anal-ists are telling us that the price of gold is falling because there is no inflation, which is utter B.S. They refer to inflation as being the Government fudged CPI figures that only a dimwit would believe. But US Treasuries don't lie...unless it is the Central Planners doing the buying with money created out of thin air. The U.S FED is in a dilemma and gold will ultimately reveal the truth.

All the Technical Anal-ists are pointing to US$1000 being the target price for gold because it is a sexy round number, but none of them can explain why $2000 wasn't sexy enough in 2011...go figure...:rolleyes:

While I don't doubt that $1000 can be hit, or $900 or even $800...I'm not trying to pick the bottom with gold. I am buying as much as I can afford before it makes its inevitable ascent to $US2000 and beyond. I have a goal of owning a certain number of ounces and I am nowhere near that goal because the price took off in 2011.

Gold is going to be my "Jesse Livermore" trade...I will either go bankrupt or make a killing...although I'm not using any margin, I'm buying outright...


As always: DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH!

I reached an important milestone at the end of this week. I have now accumulated over 100 troy oz. of physical gold, mostly bought on the significant dips. All kept in safe storage. All of it owned outright, no leverage or loans.(y)



ES @ 2181.25
GC @ 1341.7




70,393
 
INFLATION; the REAL EVIL

Britons Start to Feel the Squeeze From Brexit-Fueled Inflation
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...feel-the-squeeze-from-brexit-fueled-inflation


U.K. households are starting to feel the pain from Brexit-induced pressure on their finances.

It seems like only yesterday they were trying to terrify us with the DEFLATION bogeyman!

As your cost of living keeps rising and diminishes your standard of living just remember what the Central Bankers kept saying - “Inflation is good for you!” . . .:LOL:


GC @ 1267.9
ES @ 2120.75






72,823
 
Interesting times ahead

The Endgame?

This is the dynamic that IMO is on the way to reversing course. Everyone...and I mean everyone from mainstream analysts to trade2win legendary members are talking about the death of the gold bull market, yet none of them are talking about the 30 year bond bubble. I haven't seen one thread talking about the 'end of the bond bubble'.

Yields have been falling for 30 years...yes...roughly since the time the gold price peaked in 1980. Is it just coincidence that gold went through a 20 year bear market as yields were falling? Why would you own gold when Treasuries were rising and paying interest? They were a good, safe bet. Where do they go from here? Does anyone believe that US Treasuries yields can be pushed back down without killing the $US dollar?


The FED hasn't even started to taper yet. I suppose it will take an MMT numbskull to explain it...like the dot com experts were telling us back in 2000 it's a "new economy" :LOL:



Global Bonds Suffer Worst Monthly Meltdown as $1.7 Trillion Lost
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-worst-ever-meltdown-as-bull-market-shows-age


The 30-year-old bull market in bonds looks to be ending with a bang.


Now, it's obvious to the mainstream...how long before other things I wrote about become obvious?




GC @ 1171.1
ES @ 2197.50





73,868
 
Everything is known in advance

May 2, 2015, 5:42pm
The Global financial crisis occurred in 2008 and the Austrian economists not only forecasted it in advance, they also warned at the time that the policy response of the Central Banks and Governments will prolong the recession. Here we are in 2015 and interest rates are STILL near 0% and Central Bankers are STILL expanding the money supply. We are entering a lost decade.

Here is an excellent lecture with facts and figures, provided entirely FREE from the only economic school that actually understands economics. Watch and learn.

Contrasting Views of the Great Depression | Robert P. Murphy

Britain is suffering first 'lost decade' of economic growth for 150 years: Mark Carney warns living standards are suffering the biggest squeeze since Dickensian times

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ffering-biggest-squeeze-Dickensian-times.html


Britain is in the midst of its 'first lost decade' since the 1860s, the Governor of the Bank of England warned last night.



:sleep: :sleep: :sleep: :sleep:




GC @ 1169.6
ES @ 2212.75








74,265
 
FOMC Fairy tale

It's FOMC day today! The markets have already assigned a 100% probability that the "Hawkish" (*LOL*) US FED will be "hiking" (*LOL*) rates today because the US economy is growing! (LMFAO)

The price action of gold is telling me a very different story, and as Lord Rees Mogg
said: “Government lie; bankers lie; even auditors sometimes lie; gold tells the truth.”

If my figuring is correct then whatever the US FED does, gold will most likely dip down below US$1150 sometime after the announcement but stay above $1100 (possible low of US$1130) and close the year between $US1150 - $1200.

However, I am forecasting that gold breaks above US$1400 by mid 2017 (y)

All of this is contingent on gold staying above $US1100. If it breaks below that then both the US FED and I have misjudged the market.




GC @ 1162.1
ES @ 2266.00





74,678
 
Stagflation

It's FOMC day today! The markets have already assigned a 100% probability that the "Hawkish" (*LOL*) US FED will be "hiking" (*LOL*) rates today because the US economy is growing! (LMFAO)

The price action of gold is telling me a very different story, and as Lord Rees Mogg
said: “Government lie; bankers lie; even auditors sometimes lie; gold tells the truth.”

If my figuring is correct then whatever the US FED does, gold will most likely dip down below US$1150 sometime after the announcement but stay above $1100 (possible low of US$1130) and close the year between $US1150 - $1200.

However, I am forecasting that gold breaks above US$1400 by mid 2017 (y)

All of this is contingent on gold staying above $US1100. If it breaks below that then both the US FED and I have misjudged the market.


So far so good!(y)

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Cracks are starting to appear in the FED's recovery fantasy. What is happening is good ol’ fashioned stagflation.


"FOMC forecasts show up to three rate hikes are expected for next year, up from two in September in a move described by the Fed as "slight". Inflation forecasts are unchanged but forecasts for the unemployment rate, in a reminder of full employment, have been lowered."


I put the chances of 3 rate hikes in 2017 at < 5%




GC @ 1152.0
ES @ 2233.50





75,296
 

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Why aren't consumers spending like mad???

U.K. Retail Sales Fall Most Since 2012 as Price Rises Bite
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...les-fall-most-since-2012-as-store-prices-rise

U.K. retail sales fell at the fastest pace in almost five years in December as rising prices saw consumers buy less of everything from household goods to clothing and food.


How is everyone enjoying the inflation the Central Bankers keep saying is good for ‘us’? Seems like only yesterday they were saying that inflation will ‘boost demand’ because consumers would hold off spending if prices fall…you know…consumers are terrified of the deflation bogeyman!!


Only a [comment removed] could believe the Keynesian nonsense!





GC @ 1199.6
ES @ 2265.25






76,398
 
Change In Speak

Retail sales fall unexpectedly in January
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39002325

Analysts said consumers were becoming wary of spending at a time when employment and earnings growth was slowing and inflation rising.

Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Economics said consumers were starting to "crumble" in the face of inflation pressure.



How is everyone enjoying the inflation the Central Bankers keep saying is good for ‘us’?

It seems like only yesterday the Central Bankers were trying to terrify us all with the DEFLATION BOGEYMAN; warning us that if prices fell “Consumers would hold off purchases” triggering an economic disaster of biblical proportions OMG! :-0

Only a [comment removed] could believe Central Bankers rhetoric!





GC @ 1236.0
ES @ 2348.50




77,454
 
Gold

It's FOMC day today! The markets have already assigned a 100% probability that the "Hawkish" (*LOL*) US FED will be "hiking" (*LOL*) rates today because the US economy is growing! (LMFAO)

The price action of gold is telling me a very different story, and as Lord Rees Mogg
said: “Government lie; bankers lie; even auditors sometimes lie; gold tells the truth.”

If my figuring is correct then whatever the US FED does, gold will most likely dip down below US$1150 sometime after the announcement but stay above $1100 (possible low of US$1130) and close the year between $US1150 - $1200.

However, I am forecasting that gold breaks above US$1400 by mid 2017 (y)

All of this is contingent on gold staying above $US1100. If it breaks below that then both the US FED and I have misjudged the market.


GC @ 1162.1
ES @ 2266.00


74,678


GC reached a high of 1362.4 on 8th September 2017. The middle of 2017 was 2nd July, give or take. The actual GOLD price was just under 3% short of my target in just over 2 months. Not bad for a call made over 6 months in advance.(y)

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GC @ 1282.5
ES @ 2517.75



82,388
 

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dotcom all over again

The more threads I read, the more I am convinced that crypto’s are a bubble. No different to the dotcom bubble when people were talking “The New Economy”.

The crypto bubble will burst the same way as the dotcom bubble, but not before they sucker in more “Legendary” Trade2win members... :LOL:

...and I thought crypto’s were just a millennial thing too...Nope! :LOL:

I’m sticking with gold and silver...and the wheel. (y)

This forum is invaluable for all the wrong reasons :clap:



GC @ 1273.5
ES @ 2527.25




82,934
 
Inflation is good for 'us' right?

Britons 'face expensive Christmas dinner' as food price inflation soars

http://www.theguardian.com/business...-surge-uk-inflation-may-have-peaked-3-percent

So how is everyone enjoying the inflation the Central Bankers keep saying is good for 'us'?


Rachel Lund, the BRC’s head of retail insight and analytics, said higher food bills meant consumers were cutting back in other areas of spending, forcing non-food retailers to offer bargains. She warned: “It may be an expensive Christmas dinner this year as a [result] of more costly imports and higher world food prices, particularly for dairy products.”

Cutting back? WTF? It seems like only yesterday the Central Bankers were trying to terrify us all with the DEFLATION bogeyman...telling us that consumers would "hold off" spending if they see prices falling.

Expensive means that consumers should now be spending money like crazy, right? "Animal Spirits" and all that other Keynesian bullshìt...

Only a brain dead moron could believe Central Banker rhetoric.:rolleyes:



GC @ 1277.6
ES @ 2574.50





84,684
 
Position Summary EOY 2017

This is a summary of my open positions going into 2018. Could this finally be the year gold makes a breakout? I'm confident it will and I am positioned accordingly.(y)


This trade suffered a bit of a setback but I'm still holding.

No stops hit. New positions added.

Current Status:
  • Position size: 74.2%
  • Profit target: 10.1%
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Previous Status.

I've also opened a new position going into 2018. This is a micro-gold futures contract MGC Dec 2018 expiry. I plan to hold it until near expiry as it is a deliverable contract. My broker doesn't allow taking delivery. Besides, it's a 10oz accumulation certificate not physical gold.

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Just to clarify, these are leveraged trades and completely separate from my outright physical holding in gold and silver.(y)


GC @ 1305.1
ES @ 2668.25





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Not the big one

My figuring was 100% correct. Target hit. So much for all the Chicken Little dunces and their “Sell in May and go away” doctrine. The markets are going to the moon; Inflationary boom!


This isn’t an official forecast but I’d say this market has another +50% to go before there is any major correction. There is a kind of hubris starting to develop...just as one would expect in an inflationary boom. Although I’m not posting much these days I still read posts on Trade2win. It’s important for me to keep in touch with how the ‘public’ is thinking!:LOL:

zypNNoYJ



The psychopathic Central Planners continue their financial repression while trying to brainwash you into believing that inflation is good for you. By my reckoning the next financial crisis isn’t too far away, probably around 2016-2017, but it might just be possible for the insane and psychotic Central Planners to INFLATE-REPRESS-DENY for longer than even I can imagine. But make no mistake; the Central Planners have every intention of inflating their way out this predicament. So even when (if) they start to raise interest rates it will only be a token effort to make it look as if their over leveraged economies are stronger. They will raise rates so impossibly slowly, in absurdly tiny increments to ensure they are always a long way behind the inflation curve. Don’t expect to see any Gerald Ford style “Whip Inflation Now” campaigns...that is from a bygone era when Central Planners kept inflation to a minimum as opposed to today where they are doing the very opposite. The poor and low income earners will suffer, but they are disregarded. All that matters is the deflation bogeyman is destroyed.

I notice that all the retarded Socialists aren’t concerned about anything. The clueless imbeciles who claimed that Socialism bailed out Capitalism during the 2008 panic and then jumped on the “Occupy” bandwagon don’t see any problems with what the Central Planners have created. They are probably so stupid that they believe this is a real economic recovery made possible by the “Massive Advantage” a Central Bank has with control of the money supply.

They aren’t expressing any concerns about the grotesque distortions in the economy which are the direct result of Central Planner intervention since 2008 and prior! They are so clueless they actually believe the establishment media propaganda who tells them we are experiencing real economic growth rather than inflationary growth.

But when the next crisis comes they will be the ones screaming at the top of their voice that Capitalism got out of control and “greedy” bankers are to blame. They won’t tell us exactly when the Socialist Central Planners handed the economy over to Capitalism. Their trick is more of a “heads they win tails we lose” situation. They will try and convince you that when things appeared to be good, it was thanks to the policies of our Socialist Central Planners and things went wrong when they allowed Capitalism to take over.

But I know the truth and so should everyone who has been reading my journal. Unlike the last Financial Crisis where only a few understood what was really going on and accurately forecasted the crisis, everybody should see the next financial crisis coming. There are no excuses this time.


37,771


U.S. Stocks Plummet, Erasing Gains for the Year: Markets Wrap
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ce-for-selloff-bond-rout-deepens-markets-wrap

U.S. stocks plunged for a second straight session, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping more than 1,400 points and the S&P 500 Index enduring its steepest single-day decline since August 2015, erasing its gains for the year.


This is NOT the big one, it is only the prelude:!:






GC @ 1342.2
ES @ 2686.75






90,576
 
The beginning of the end.

Bond-Stock Clash Has Just Begun as Inflation Looms
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...sh-has-just-begun-as-inflation-bogeyman-looms

And it’s all thanks to our Central Bankers who create bubbles with their inflationary monetary policies and then burst them again. How on earth can any adult with a brain believe that these people are the ones who give us financial stability?

As far as what happens next: IMO, the Central Bankers, unfortunately, are going to have to act again in some way to ‘save’ the markets from the mess that they themselves created. They will try and talk the market back up again and if that fails they will reflate the market again via their misguided monetary policies, again!

Whatever they do, this is appears to me to be the start of the beginning of the end of this bull market in stocks, especially if the market starts making new highs in the near future, as I suspect it will.

It seems like only yesterday the Central Bankers were saying inflation is good for us.

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it"
-George Santayana






GC @ 1318.1
ES @ 2621.50





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