Dow - Which Way?

[Lightning McQueen]

are you or will you be operating wih a guaranteed stop loss ?

Hi millsy500
im not no.
using Capital Spreads and as far as im aware their stops are not guaranteed.
in spread betting are IG the only ones that offer this or are there others.

off to work now.
later all

Don

 

[Bigbusiness]

The answer is YES. It's just that I was worried about it working against the trade. I have worked it out now.

Bid A-Tool

There will be some trades when the futures hit your stop before the open. This makes it hard to back test with Dow OHLC data, as it might look like you have made a profit when in reality, your stop would have been hit. If you want to test your system properly, you should get hold of some futures data.

 

[Bid A-Tool]

There will be some trades when the futures hit your stop before the open. This makes it hard to back test with Dow OHLC data, as it might look like you have made a profit when in reality, your stop would have been hit. If you want to test your system properly, you should get hold of some futures data.

it doesn't matter. I know where to place the stops!

 

[blackcab]

it doesn't matter. I know where to place the stops!

I haven't been following the thread but have you been backtesting against Dow index prices, i.e. what you can get from Yahoo? If so, what are you actually trading - DJ/YM/DD futures, spreadbets, ETFs, buying/selling the Dow basket of stocks directly? There's a big difference between them.

 

[Bid A-Tool]

I haven't been following the thread but have you been backtesting against Dow index prices, i.e. what you can get from Yahoo? If so, what are you actually trading - DJ/YM/DD futures, spreadbets, ETFs, buying/selling the Dow basket of stocks directly? There's a big difference between them.

Just the DOW as CFD.

 

[leovirgo]

Back testing for a discretionary system seems easy but implementing the system requires a great deal of discipline.

1. Are you really free from any news related emotion and bias when trading with real money in real time?
2. Where do you place your stops?
3. Markets are evolving IMO. To be able to adapt to the chaning markets conditions is the most challenging part for a trader. What worked for 1975 markets won't work in 2004. Many great traders failed to some extent at some point unless they can tune their system to new conditions of the market whether they are fundamental or technical players.

To me, there is no holy grail.

 

[Bid A-Tool]

Back testing for a discretionary system seems easy but implementing the system requires a great deal of discipline.

1. Are you really free from any news related emotion and bias when trading with real money in real time?
2. Where do you place your stops?
3. Markets are evolving IMO. To be able to adapt to the chaning markets conditions is the most challenging part for a trader. What worked for 1975 markets won't work in 2004. Many great traders failed to some extent at some point unless they can tune their system to new conditions of the market whether they are fundamental or technical players.

To me, there is no holy grail.

And yes I agree. I would have not thought there was a "holy grail". I still think that at the moment.

1. YES
2. Stops are placed and calculated according to when I read the signal.
3. Doesn't matter because of the way the system works.

Better to test the system forward rather than back test it.
Believe me I want to try and trip it up and learn from the mistakes. It's early days.

And no I don't find I easier to stick with a Trade when the DOW is all over the shop. To be honest that has always been my undoing in the past. I feel the hardest part as well is deciding when to enter a trade.

Bid A-Tool

 

[Bid A-Tool]

Just to point out traders. I am unable to access the current Market situation until the market opens. I can't assess the futures market which can be annoying sometimes.

As regards a "Stop Loss". I am not telling you where to put it. I am just telling you where I am putting it. That is a personal thing. It's sometimes what you feel comfortable with. Personally I have just lifted my Stop Loss at 11,340 temporally to access the situation on the open.

I think the "stop loss" thing is a trading plan all on it's own. It's not easy and would welcome suggestions.

Bid A-Tool

 

[JillyB]

Just to point out traders. I am unable to access the current Market situation until the market opens. I can't assess the futures market which can be annoying sometimes.

As regards a "Stop Loss". I am not telling you where to put it. I am just telling you where I am putting it. That is a personal thing. It's sometimes what you feel comfortable with. Personally I have just lifted my Stop Loss at 11,340 temporally to access the situation on the open.

Bid A-Tool

That's probably a good thing as I envisage it will go up on the open. Probably continue going upwards until 2.50 -3pm. After this, it will probably reverse and have another bear day. (I think!)

 

[Bid A-Tool]

That's probably a good thing as I envisage it will go up on the open. Probably continue going upwards until 2.50 -3pm. After this, it will probably reverse and have another bear day. (I think!)

I tell you what there is a lot of pressure on me. I think it is helping me to be disciplined with everyone looking though. Why did I start this? Who knows!

Bid A-Tool

 

[Bigbusiness]

it doesn't matter. I know where to place the stops!

You only know where to place the stops if you are using futures data. I only know this from experience and seeing others make the same mistake. Perhaps you haven't been stopped out in the post or pre-market hours yet but it does happen and it is something that has to be thought about or your system will never be as good as you think it is.

 

[Bid A-Tool]

There appears to be no indication at the moment to the "short" signal. The DOW is up 50 points. It's times like this where it takes the discipline to stick with the trade.

I have decided to keep my "Stop Loss" off for now (11,340) .

 

[JillyB]

I tell you what there is a lot of pressure on me. I think it is helping me to be disciplined with everyone looking though. Why did I start this? Who knows!

Bid A-Tool

Only you can answer that one!

But please carry on.

I'll add in the bits I can see - like the rise at the open - when I can.

 

[Bid A-Tool]

For those that decided to move there "Stop Loss" down to Entry Point this trade would have been cancelled (no loss). Interesting situation now. It is up you what you want to do but I am sticking with my short position because there is still no change to the signal (No buy Signal).

Bid A-Tool

 

[leovirgo]

BAT, keep up your work regardless of noises. I went short last night but just covered it now. Bullish forces are still there IMHO.

That's the bullish forces at work. That's why I covered my shorts yesterday. Will see if NR7 day(Monday) will be penetrated to the upside then yesterday would be shake-out. Or it may fall again then that would be another short entry.

 

[DepthTangent]

Dont the folks contributing to this thread know there is another thread discussing what direction the Dow is moving ? I thought it was common knowledge we were in a bull market, obviously not. No disrespect, however I often wonder what exactly these signals are that people refer to.

 

[Bid A-Tool]

Only you can answer that one!

But please carry on.

I'll add in the bits I can see - like the rise at the open - when I can.

You know what the DOW is like Jill. It can be up like this at the open and down at the end of the day or the other way round. The DOW will do what it wants to do. It never does what you want it to do. It never goes in one straight line up or down. Well this trade would have been a "Quits" technically because I brought the Stop Loss down to 11,340 so I am happy that trade was not a loss.

I can only report what I am observing.

Bid A-Tool

 

[JFK]

For those that decided to move there "Stop Loss" down to Entry Point this trade would have been cancelled (no loss). Interesting situation now. It is up you what you want to do but I am sticking with my short position because there is still no change to the signal (No buy Signal).

Bid A-Tool

Where's your new stop loss level to indicate a change of direction to long, 11410?

 

[Bid A-Tool]

Dont the folks contributing to this thread know there is another thread discussing what direction the Dow is moving ? I thought it was common knowledge we were in a bull market, obviously not. No disrespect, however I often wonder what exactly these signals are that people refer to.

There is NO buy signal on my system although the DOW is up 90 points......Just like the 1st trade I entered on this tread. I called a possible Buy signal in the day and someone was complaining the Dow had sank 70 points since I said a possible Buy was coming. Another person went short at that point. Next day we went up 200 points.

This is the odd thing about my system....it's "Quirky" This is the sort of situation that starts playing games with the mind. The DOW is telling you one thing an the signal says down and no Buy signal.

Good point to short it in my opinion.

Bid A-Tool

 

[Bid A-Tool]

Dont the folks contributing to this thread know there is another thread discussing what direction the Dow is moving ? I thought it was common knowledge we were in a bull market, obviously not. No disrespect, however I often wonder what exactly these signals are that people refer to.

A Mathematical Conundrum. The eyes only see what they want to see. The price moves up and people think that we are going up so everyone piles in buying. At the top the seller hit back hard. It's a mugs game!

Sucked in like lambs to the slaughter.

Bid A-Tool