Dow - Which Way?

[Bid A-Tool]

Have you considered scalping?

YES it can be done but I don't have the time to be watching it all day. The same principle would be used. personally I don't think it's quite easy.

So is anyone going to say why this trade should not have been entered. Rols what do you think?

Bid A-Tool

 

[rols]

YES it can be done but I don't have the time to be watching it all day. The same principle would be used. personally I don't think it's quite easy.

So is anyone going to say why this trade should not have been entered. Rols what do you think?

Bid A-Tool

I think you should go to bed before your mum catches you....

 

[Bid A-Tool]

I think you should go to bed before your mum catches you....

A little difficult Rols........because she died 2 years ago on the very Day the DOW shot up 200 points on my last signal. That was for her.
My birthday is 29th April.........the day my mum was Cremated. I am nearly 39 years old Rols.

Bid A-Tool

 

[frugi]

I'm sure you wished no real ill on old BAT, rols, but still I have deleted yr post above as imho it was a few inches the wrong side of the light-hearted banter line. That's not to say I have a problem with the general principle, rather the personal context.

 

[Bid A-Tool]

I'm sure you wished no real ill on old BAT, rols, but still I have deleted yr post above as imho it was a few inches the wrong side of the light-hearted banter line. That's not to say I have a problem with the general principle, rather the personal context.

Don't worry about it. Rolls wasn't to know. I just want people to help develop the system. Constructive critics are great because it can help to improve things. This system isn't perfect but with a good Stop Loss it can help us win. These signals are for everyone.

I will admit when I am wrong. I am not that proud.

Bid A-Tool

 

[rols]

Don't worry about it. Rolls wasn't to know. I just want people to help develop the system. Constructive critics are great because it can help to improve things. This system isn't perfect but with a good Stop Loss it can help us win. These signals are for everyone.

I will admit when I am wrong. I am not that proud.

Bid A-Tool

Bid -A-Tool. I'm sorry about your mum and no offense was intended. I will bow out of this thread shortly but first I would like to make a few points.

Let's get some facts straight. Some of the things you have been saying have come across as extremely immature to say the least. This site is called Trade2Win and I hope it is for serious traders who want to make their hard earned money grow into something worth having, perhaps as part of their pensions. As it was suggested earlier, it only takes one black swan to be wiped out, and I'm sorry your strategy is not black swan proof. (For further info on black swans read Karl Popper and Niederhoffer)
Furthermore if you had posted your strategy on the Elitetrader site you may not have found such good humour.
I found your sometimes smug attitude alarming especially as the strategy being proposed was ill conceived and soon exposed to be as such. Look at the way you changed your mind re stops every five minutes. This is a sure way to get roasted.
I like many traders have spent much time and money learning this most demanding of skills and do not take lightly to a novice appearing and treating the process as if it is some kind of game like Monopoly.
Trading is a war and it takes no prisoners. To many trading is almost a life and death situation
and success or failure will literally make or break them. Against all advice many are putting their financial welfare on the line. It is better you are shot down here before you or anybody else get murdered in the real market place.
You will not be the first or last who presents these boards with a new and wonderful key to success. The fact is that there is no Holy Grail and no one line solution to successful trading. If there was then everybody would be doing it.

There is no right or wrong about it. Like the markets there is no certainty, no black or white, just infinite shades of grey. Rainbows are for dreamers. Every trader has his own personality. Advice is cheap and ultimately meaningless.This is why I believe it is at best misleading to give advice and foolish to take any.

"If you want a guarantee, buy a toaster."
Uncle Harry.

 

[sandpiper]

Let's get some facts straight. Some of the things you have been saying have come across as extremely immature to say the least.

This from the guy who gave us the profound "Paper Trading Is Pants"

This site is called Trade2Win and I hope it is for serious traders who want to make their hard earned money grow into something worth having, perhaps as part of their pensions.

I guess we must be looking at different sites, innit?


Listen, whilst I concede that BAT sounds strangely reminiscent of a rather more courteous badtrader, cj12, sun123, buzzbuzz, etc, even down to the martingale.... people are, as ever, free to choose what they do and don't take seriously. Personally, I find threads like this a useful illustration of how the market can continue to work the way it does, confounding the majority whilst rewarding the minority. I would suggest that you view it the same way.

 

[Danger Field]

I don't trade the dow but a cursory glance last night indicated a rising triangle. Rather than making any specific predictive call, why not see if this breaks and then considering taking a position based on what's occurring rather than what might occur. This approach tends to pay dividends over the long run.

The problem with indicators is that they're often prone to indicating more than they know themselves. They're just lines - it's what your head sometimes does with them that causes the problems.

That is also why traditional chart patterns work, and have always worked, so well. No added value - just the bare bones. Less to get wrong. Less to read. Indicators can make it really hard work.

 

[Baldwreck]

[
So is anyone going to say why this trade should not have been entered. Rols what do you think?
]
My two pence worth. On my "system" this type of signal has appeared 517 times since the early 80's with a marginal balance for the market moving higher (297 to 220) in the next few days. I'm therefore sitting on the sidelines, though I'm leaving a long position entered at an average of 11100 for the next few days, stop at that entry level. I actually find the Dow the most difficult of all the major indices to guage.

 

[Lightning McQueen]

I believe my signal looks good for a short its not confirmed but good enough IMO to call
now all ive got to do is work out how to enter an order on the CS simulator as i am at work later

Danger Field, Baldwreck, Jillyb, jfk and kewbridge good contributions thats what I believe Bid wants a bit of input and encouragement and ideas for his strat hes asking but some of you guys are jumping on him. come on look on your charts mark on the trade calls, whats he doing right whats wrong, thats what hes after.

wrols you wascally wabbit you yeah what about that Paper Trading Is Pants thread :cheesy: thanks sandpiper.

I will post a chart later to see where we are and where we can take this thing when I have more time later, hopefully today.

later everyone

Don

 

[JFK]

‘517 times’ that is some back testing, hats off to you Baldwreck.
IMHO I don’t think the Dow moved down enough the psycho barrier of 11300 needs breaking, it may well test 11400 again. I could be wrong so I’ll sit back & watch what happens. S&P closed Friday ID followed by NR7 on Monday! I’m also on the sidelines, I took my profit on S&P mini at 1322.5 on Friday.

Out of interest Bid, what did your signal show for 26/10/05 to 31/10/05? By the way, you said you’ve been testing this for two years. What were results like for 2004?

 

[JillyB]

In pre-open trading the Dow is currently at 11,343 (CMC). If it stays around this level, my system has the first trade as being a BUY up to the high of yesterday at 11,354. Then a reversal SELL trade at around 2.50pm to 3.10pm.

If it moves signifcantly away from this figure before the open then that will change the trade.

But if you're looking for an entry point for a SELL look to aroud the high of yesterday - as it stands at the moment.

 

[rols]

I believe my signal looks good for a short its not confirmed but good enough IMO to call
now all ive got to do is work out how to enter an order on the CS simulator as i am at work later

Danger Field, Baldwreck and kewbridge good contributions thats what I believe Bid wants a bit of input and encouragement and ideas for his strat hes asking but some of you guys are jumping on him. come on look on your charts mark on the trade calls, whats he doing right whats wrong, thats what hes after.

wrols you wascally wabbit you yeah what about that Paper Trading Is Pants thread :cheesy: thanks sandpiper.

I will post a chart later to see where we are and where we can take this thing when I have more time later, hopefully today.

later everyone

Don

Hey you guys I admit I overstepped the mark a bit so I'm keeping out of this and hope Bid-A-Tool will continue on his quest. Peace and love and all that.... :cheesy:
The Paper Trading is Pants thread actually raised some good points and was so titled to draw attention to a subject which had been covered many times before.
As I said earlier I think my opinions of what is going up or down is meaningless as we all process infomation in our own unique ways.
However I agree with Don and think it's time a chart of the DJIA with OBV was posted. So here's one I made earlier....

 

[Danger Field]

Danger Field, Baldwreck, Jillyb, jfk and kewbridge good contributions thats what I believe Bid wants a bit of input and encouragement and ideas for his strat hes asking but some of you guys are jumping on him. come on look on your charts mark on the trade calls, whats he doing right whats wrong, thats what hes after.

What strat? As far as I can see, there is no strat - just blind calls and allusions to indicators.

If my post was viewed as encouraging then yes, I was encouraging bid-a-tool to let go of the game and start trading like a pro.

This thread is a nonsense really. A rag-bag of nothing much at all and highly pointless. Sorry. It's not taking anyone anywhere they need to go.

Must be my day for upsetting people.

 

[rols]

....then there's the B factor

Bush, Bonds, Bin-Laden and Bombs....

 

[leovirgo]

DATE: 24th April 2006 9:03pm

At the close of trading today, the indicators have confirmed a reversal (FALL - GO SHORT) is on it's way.

How long it's duration or strength or how many points it will fall, I am unable to say.

Trade entered (Sell order) DOW: 11,340
Stop loss entered just above the Last High (Logical): Maximum position loss in this trade 80 points or less. Stop shall be moved closer to entry point if the trade moves in our favour.

Bid A-Tool

BAT, keep up your work regardless of noises. I went short last night but just covered it now. Bullish forces are still there IMHO.

 

[Bid A-Tool]

Just one point. The idea would be to close the "short" position on the next "buy signal" or as near as possible. That way you get Maximum profits.

Some times I can tell that a signal is about to fail. It's not that the signal fails but more like the DOW decides to change direction. It picks up on it quickly. If I pull out of a trade it isn't because I am not sure. The DOW will do what ever it's going to do. You can't control that.

I know it's hard when the DOW goes up and down like this today but you have to be strict about the trade otherwise it doesn't work.

ALSO TO KEEP ROLS HAPPY. IF YOU WANTED, YOU COULD NOW MOVE THE STOP LOSS TO ENTRY POINT. THIS TRADE WOULD THEN HAVE NO RISK OF LOSS>

Bid A-Tool

 

[JillyB]

Just one point. The idea would be to close the "short" position on the next "buy signal" or as near as possible. That way you get Maximum profits.

Some times I can tell that a signal is about to fail. It's not that the signal fails but more like the DOW decides to change direction. It picks up on it quickly. If I pull out of a trade it isn't because I am not sure. The DOW will do what ever it's going to do. You can't control that.

I know it's hard when the DOW goes up and down like this today but you have to be strict about the trade otherwise it doesn't work.

Bid A-Tool

Good work BAT,

Keep it up. I'm fascinated by this thread.

I'd love to know if these indicators are common ones, or ones unique to a certain trading platform such as E-signal or Tradestation?

Can you at least tell me this?

 

[Bid A-Tool]

I don't trade the dow but a cursory glance last night indicated a rising triangle. Rather than making any specific predictive call, why not see if this breaks and then considering taking a position based on what's occurring rather than what might occur.

WRONG! Danger Field.........These Indicators and my interpretation of them are "Predictive" signals. They Signal what will likely happen before the event. I can also now see they are capable of predicting right on the nose. For me the signals can be a little late. I am working on the accuracy.

Bid A-Tool

 

[Bid A-Tool]

I have now moved my "Stop Loss" to 11,340 (Entry point) for the last trade. This trade can no longer be called a Loss trade if it was to hit that level.

I am holding the position as I feel there is still further to fall in my opinion. I will aim to take maximum profits.

Bid A-Tool