Dow - Which Way?

[Bigbusiness]

the dow is at an all time high and stocks are running out of steam
bat may be / or not correct in his call
but I remember the dot com boom, and when people started to say that it was over bought and it was time for a correcting

They where howled down
but they where correct

so just maybe, this may be the first call,
it may not
but just think about it

One day, one of these people calling for a market collapse will be right. The problem is, I have been seeing calls for a collapse for 3 years now. So when someone hits the nail on the head, does it mean anything? Lots of people buy lottery tickets but does the winner have skill or luck?

I used to play the guessing tops and bottoms game until I realised it isn't necessary. For me, the real skill is making money in the times between the tops and bottoms.

 

[Racer]

If this thread was started by a now banned member with the intention of selling a system, then can I suggest it be moved to the appropriate forum?

 

[watercooled]

Market collapses

Hi Guys,

When we use previous data to make a statistical system, plan or scientific argument, as soon as we move on with the future, the new data series has become different. In a nutshell the past doesn't = the future. Thanks BB and others for bringing sanity to this thread.

My Dow data base only goes back to the beginning of 1920 so I cannot discuss my point outside this recent period of time. I haven't got a century of tulip price data either. All large and greatly sized market crashes on the Dow (all due to economic forces) have not happened during a rising market or after a majot up day, but after a period of weeks of declines have preceeded the big fall. Commonly after a 1-2-3 top formation of a decent size. So I'm happy to trade as normal tomorrow without fear that Batty could be right.

Having worked in Leicester a few times and noticed how poorly some of the locals drive, I guess Batty is used to crashes! Ay up m'duck got a new motor!

All the best,

WC

 

[trendie]

a real shame about Bid-A-Tool. I thought he was quite entertaining.
surprising the number of posts per day, considering this was meant to be a swing-trading system, which, generally, require a trade to breathe a bit, as has already been mentioned.

As a general rule, anything that aims to "predict" should generate a red-flag in us.
One of the great blind-spots we tend to have is the desire for certainty, of "getting in at the top", and "getting out at the bottom".
But these ideas tend to be top--fishing and bottom-fishing exercises.

personally, I think he would still be here if he hadnt spammed other unrelated threads.
hope the ban is temporary.

I particularly liked his expressive use of different fonts, colours and sizes.
( a bit upset I didnt a copy of his PMs that he sent to all and sundry. Considering the PM contained possibly no real personal information, would someone post a copy of it ? Is it funny enough to ? )

 

[sibreballon]

LOOKS LIKE YOU ARE ALL MISSING ME ALREADY. I'm BACK.

Bid A-Tool

Hello,

I hate to tell you this but I have found the missing link as to Why the stock market moves the way it does. I have cracked the missing mathematical algorithm that everyone has been looking for.

On 1st May 2006 The DOW will suffer a MAJOR CRASH. The biggest one day fall in history.

Other major stock markets will then follow. This will really be the BLACK MONDAY.

The loss in this crash will be much greater than 22.6%.

You have been warned.

Bid A-Tool

 

[Racer]

more rubbish for the bin

 

[frugi]

Bid A-Tool has been banned for spamming all over the forums with an identical post and trying to sell a system to T2W members by PM and direct linking. The ban was initially for 2 days but is now increased to one month as he re-registered under a new nick while banned.