Dow 2008

[luckyd1976]

there is news and earnings pretty much everyday, is there anyway to stay ahead of it?.......any software, something i can subscribe to perhaps or do i really have to learn fundamental analysis for myself?
jason

IM sure there is. For me lets look at GE. GE is the Most transparent of public companies. They always tell it how it is. And most Fundamental traders key into their Conference calls to get a feel for a big portion of the global economy.

IM paraphrasing now... GE said, Financial Services Suck! Materials Good. Industrials Good. Now none of these sectors are making news by what GE said. And still the Market is marking down. GE has a reputation of always beating estimates and some of this Miss is their new requirements to "Mark to Market and their unability to move Commercial Paper for two weeks," (CEO Immelt CBNC SquawkBox) after the BS collapse.
So there's nothing new going on here. But the market still behaves this way. So next you move on the PIN action (justfully/unjustfully so) and form your opinions. But this is what it is.

A Rangebound Market until it breaksthrough.
Trend traders are being driven nuts.
Fundamnetal traders are being driven nuts.
Welcome to trading... Gotta love it!

 

[Phil Mibbutz]

looks like i could have a nice ping bar here
jason

Looks more like ping-pong to me.

 

[gilligullu]

Short 464, stop moved to 430. Should I close out at 410 or should I wait for a little longer?


Stop got hit.....

 

[jayjay121]

Looks more like ping-pong to me.

yeah got that well wrong...................looks like ive missed all the action today, i was so close to placing a 2 contract short this morning on the ym at 12628, im gutted.............o well always another day......................by the way i love following this thread.

 

[firewalker99]

Short 464, stop moved to 430. Should I close out at 410 or should I wait for a little longer?


Stop got hit.....

where was your support? I had 400 on the YM (which didn't get hit, but 401 is close enough), 1825 on the NQ (low is 1825.50) and 1345 on the ES (it went slightly lower 1343.75).

So if you were short, the safest thing to do was at least lighten your position at support... the market plunged a couple hundred points pre-market, the odds that it would do the same straight after the open were slim.

 

[jayjay121]

where was your support? I had 400 on the YM (which didn't get hit, but 401 is close enough), 1825 on the NQ (low is 1825.50) and 1345 on the ES (it went slightly lower 1343.75).

So if you were short, the safest thing to do was at least lighten your position at support... the market plunged a couple hundred points pre-market, the odds that it would do the same straight after the open were slim.

definate, if anything after such a big move down this market is heading up and retracing with hopefully another shorting oppotunity later this evening perhaps or of course i could be talking total non sense.

 

[gilligullu]

where was your support? I had 400 on the YM (which didn't get hit, but 401 is close enough), 1825 on the NQ (low is 1825.50) and 1345 on the ES (it went slightly lower 1343.75).

So if you were short, the safest thing to do was at least lighten your position at support... the market plunged a couple hundred points pre-market, the odds that it would do the same straight after the open were slim.

My support was 400 as well. But you said in the past always allow +/- 10 pts. It pondered around 410 for a while, which was why I was hesitating.... Shall close half the position when hesitating from now on. Thanks, FW. But at least I bagged some profit in the end. Which is nice~~

 

[firewalker99]

My support was 400 as well. But you said in the past always allow +/- 10 pts. It pondered around 410 for a while, which was why I was hesitating.... Shall close half the position when hesitating from now on. Thanks, FW. But at least I bagged some profit in the end. Which is nice~~

if in doubt of exiting, I tend to take the more conservative route:
rather take some early profits with half (or a part) of my position, than see price return all the way back to my entry point and exit with zip points

ofcourse, this isn't necessarily the best way (far from), but each of us must determine what it is that works best for us

good weekend! I'm off (here's my 2c: 12500 before the close)

 

[Paul71]

if in doubt of exiting, I tend to take the more conservative route:
rather take some early profits with half (or a part) of my position, than see price return all the way back to my entry point and exit with zip points

ofcourse, this isn't necessarily the best way (far from), but each of us must determine what it is that works best for us

good weekend! I'm off (here's my 2c: 12500 before the close)

Mmmm. What is a/the true yardstick of profitability? This technique can lead to R:R being not much better than just over evens. Surely using one contract or a set amount and moving a stop to a/the critical price is a better approach? Just some food for thought, FW!

 

[gilligullu]

if in doubt of exiting, I tend to take the more conservative route:
rather take some early profits with half (or a part) of my position, than see price return all the way back to my entry point and exit with zip points

ofcourse, this isn't necessarily the best way (far from), but each of us must determine what it is that works best for us

good weekend! I'm off (here's my 2c: 12500 before the close)

Cheers, home time, have a good weekend and good trading day everyone.

 

[firewalker99]

Mmmm. What is a/the true yardstick of profitability? This technique can lead to R:R being not much better than just over evens. Surely using one contract or a set amount and moving a stop to the critical price is a better approach? Just some food for thought, FW!

It's always an exercise in finding the right equilibrium... but take yesterday. Gilligullu and I were short, both exited around 510. This could've gone to 460 easily, but it reversed instead. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose...

Moving the stop closer is one possibility. Ofcourse, the more contracts one trade the more possibilities he has.

 

[Paul71]

It's always an exercise in finding the right equilibrium... but take yesterday. Gilligullu and I were short, both exited around 510. This could've gone to 460 easily, but it reversed instead. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose...

Moving the stop closer is one possibility. Ofcourse, the more contracts one trade the more possibilities he has.

Do the cars/trades have to be placed at different points? Lets say you can be buying 'into' a price or you can be buying 'out' of a price, and the opposite, selling into a price and selling out of a price, yes? Depending on trend, volume, and how the MM sees fit, should there be one universal type of money management scheme?

 

[houdani]

afternoon all,5 min spx showing a triangle breakout southwards without any real oomph in it so far,could be looking at a double bottom in the next few mins and then possible rally attempt or big collapse,take your pick.

 

[Phil Mibbutz]

400 moment of truth again.

 

[Paul71]

400 moment of truth again.

Long!

 

[Phil Mibbutz]

Long!

Good luck. Looks like 50/50 to me, but the overall trend is down.:?:

 

[Paul71]

400 moment of truth again.

Sub 380 was the concern for longs, what says Phil?

 

[Paul71]

Good luck. Looks like 50/50 to me, but the overall trend is down.:?:

Absolutely! 409 was sold off, go with the flow.

 

[Paul71]

Sub 380 was the concern for longs, what says Phil?

See what they wanna do with this?

 

[Phil Mibbutz]

See what they wanna do with this?

Don't know, but I've been thinking the Dow should really be below 12000 for a month.