Dow 2008

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Sorry to bring up the fundamentals but Crude Oil spiking up to $111.30 causing a sharp rise in headline inflation and the Fed in a rate cutting cycle?

Is this a recipe for disaster?

Who is actually buying this market...
 
trader_dante said:
12,300 but I'm squinting to see it.

If 12,520 goes then I see it all clear to 11,800 where the ascending TL comes in :)

Obviously I'm only looking at 1hr, 4hr and daily TF.

Don't have the balls you guys do ;)
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allright, thx!
those levels are a bit of a stretch for intraday trading though :LOL:

I don't know about having the balls... personally I feel safer trading intraday as opposed to leaving my position open longer time!
 
ES holding 1360 and Dow the levels mentioned above. When a level gets tested as much as it has eventually curiosity gets the better of the psyche for a quick peek below. Timing is obviously the essence here.
 
gilligullu said:
Thank you. I entered long at 537, stop got hit at 525, is my stop too close? My Risk:reward is about 1:4, am I aiming too high for the reward? Or just bad timing? My stops always get hit and then it goes back up very quickly.......
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call me cynical if you like but I reckon the sb cos spike up/down to take out near stops
 
gilligullu said:
Thank you. I entered long at 537, stop got hit at 525, is my stop too close? My Risk:reward is about 1:4, am I aiming too high for the reward? Or just bad timing? My stops always get hit and then it goes back up very quickly.......
Click to expand...

Well for starters: (a) IF you are looking to buy this level, then I hope you have more reasons than the fact that it's a support level.

Then (b) if you would buy at 537 - which is a fair entry - then you would at least want to place your stop a couple of points below the test of support yesterday (that went to 12527) Price will often spike down a bit. On a 5-minute chart you'll observe that wide range body from 12560 to 12530 piercing down to 12528 but closing at 12540. So a stop at 12525 is only 3 points away from that. Either you get lucky or you get stopped out, but a stop at 12520 for example is a much safer bet.

In generally, I think if you're using tight stops from around 10 points you'll want to have very sharp entries. You can always move your stops closer after price starts to move in the favourable direction.

As for risk:reward, you don't know what the trade is going to offer you in advance... but if you can manage that on a consistent basis, I'm sure you'll do fine.
 
smbtnt said:
ES holding 1360 and Dow the levels mentioned above. When a level gets tested as much as it has eventually curiosity gets the better of the psyche for a quick peek below. Timing is obviously the essence here.
Click to expand...

The curious thing is that the NQ is already way below yesterday's low. It would be reasonable to assume that the tech's will want to reach the next support level (around 1825) and drag the other markets down along with them...
 
firewalker99 said:
Well for starters: (a) IF you are looking to buy this level, then I hope you have more reasons than the fact that it's a support level.

Then (b) if you would buy at 537 - which is a fair entry - then you would at least want to place your stop a couple of points below the test of support yesterday (that went to 12527) Price will often spike down a bit. On a 5-minute chart you'll observe that wide range body from 12560 to 12530 piercing down to 12528 but closing at 12540. So a stop at 12525 is only 3 points away from that. Either you get lucky or you get stopped out, but a stop at 12520 for example is a much safer bet.

In generally, I think if you're using tight stops from around 10 points you'll want to have very sharp entries. You can always move your stops closer after price starts to move in the favourable direction.

As for risk:reward, you don't know what the trade is going to offer you in advance... but if you can manage that on a consistent basis, I'm sure you'll do fine.
Click to expand...

Thank you very much!!! (y) I shall set the stop this way from now on.
 
gilligullu said:
Thank you very much!!! (y) I shall set the stop this way from now on.
Click to expand...

This isn't a method that works all of time - nothing does - but if I may suggest, take a look at the average volatility on your prefered timeframe. For example if you are trading off 5 minute bars and the average bar is 15 points in length, than a reasonable stop is about that big (given you have a fairly good entry point).

For example, if you're shorting from a resistance area, suppose 630 is the highest point of that resistance, than a stop at 645 would be reasonable. It can still be taken out, but if it does it's more likely that it will be because price is going to continue in that direction and not because you put your stops too close.

Good trading!
 
Down again in a trade I should not have been out of. Oh well c'est la vie
with a wider stop this time
:devilish:
 
firewalker99 said:
The curious thing is that the NQ is already way below yesterday's low. It would be reasonable to assume that the tech's will want to reach the next support level (around 1825) and drag the other markets down along with them...
Click to expand...

NQ seems to be the harbinger today for sure, 450 target for me on the Dow.
 
firewalker99 said:
This isn't a method that works all of time - nothing does - but if I may suggest, take a look at the average volatility on your prefered timeframe. For example if you are trading off 5 minute bars and the average bar is 15 points in length, than a reasonable stop is about that big (given you have a fairly good entry point).

For example, if you're shorting from a resistance area, suppose 630 is the highest point of that resistance, than a stop at 645 would be reasonable. It can still be taken out, but if it does it's more likely that it will be because price is going to continue in that direction and not because you put your stops too close.

Good trading!
Click to expand...

Thank you very much for the explaination!!!
 
Dont you just love it when its going the desired way and a profit locked in too.
Hope this isn't famous last words
 
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