Dow 2008

[Devilicus]

Trying a long here at 12812 on the cash.

60 pip stop in case it beats me up over night.

 

[dc2000]

Trying a long here at 12812 on the cash.

60 pip stop in case it beats me up over night.

looking for a 793 entry myself taking it to 940 after that 573 before Thursday would be nice

 

[Hook Shot]

The countdown is on ....

The dow is coming to daddy........... ideally we get a washout early and come back later today .... .... now I've gone public with it it's probably unlikely to happen :cheesy:

Justification ? Slow stochastics on daily DOW is now well below 20 and this is normally good for some kind of comeback... usually within 48hrs....

aLSO MY SHORTS ARE GETTING FAT ... and that's a private indication that a rally is not far off..... No lewd comments please ....

EDIT - I should not say usually .............because I have not done the full stat check... but soonish is probably more accurate 😆

In roughly 5hrs my 48 hours will expire.......... have we bottomed ? Possibly... who really knows but... regardless of that I am looking for a low this week.... slow stochs have edged higher yesterday off hammered levels and I'm looking for cofirmation of some kind of low when the slow stochs cross 20 (for the daiily chart).

The late rally has already forced a regain of the 20 level on the 15mins for the fast money boys... see stocktiger...

 

[Devilicus]

Trying a long here at 12812 on the cash.

60 pip stop in case it beats me up over night.

Taking half off here at 12852 for 40 points Profit.

Other half still running with stop at B/E.

 

[dc2000]

still holding mine for now Im looking for 940 early doors but have put a 30 rolling stop to lock in should we turn before then

With this trade I will be looking for a short @940 if however we dip early to another 793 without a hit @940 first I will reload Long and hold until last hour or 13072 whichever comes first

just trying to make my trades a little clearer

 

[Devilicus]

Taking half off here at 12852 for 40 points Profit.

Other half still running with stop at B/E.

Covering other half here at 12888.

 

[Devilicus]

Long 12837

 

[chilltrader]

looks like ppl are very confident that the downside is over for the moment?

 

[catracho]

Feliz año nuevo a todos

my dow picture..

looking for a 3 or 4 day consolidation here or up to 13200..then a continuation of fall (but a larger move up would change that...at leat temprarily)


a break below 12700 and we could see big increase in selling...

other than that...if you don't follow gold...have a look at a REAl bull market:cheesy:

 

[chilltrader]

12000 beckons

 

[firewalker99]

looks like ppl are very confident that the downside is over for the moment?

At that point you should be most wary of going long, as the market is right. Always.

 

[Dinos]

Agree with you FW, a bigger drop would probably follow should we get there, you cant change the market, just follow where it goes and jump on board, don't go off in the other direction!

 

[firewalker99]

Agree with you FW, a bigger drop would probably follow should we get there, you cant change the market, just follow where it goes and jump on board, don't go off in the other direction!

Now that the only support we had left has gone, I'm officialy 200% bearish. I'm sure Atilla will love to hear me say this 😆

Btw, HookShot are you still in your massive short?

 

[firewalker99]

Left chart: downtrend anybody?

Right chart: with August's lows gone, it's bye bye bulls!

 

[2468steve]

Now that the only support we had left has gone, I'm officialy 200% bearish. I'm sure Atilla will love to hear me say this 😆

Btw, HookShot are you still in your massive short?

I'd make support at 12531 Dow...1370 SPX and 1805 NDX...all cash...coincidentally the M pattern on Dow gave 12580 target and 1372 on SPX...tomorrow is last chance saloon for bulls

 

[leovirgo]

This is my plain sells- what a shame that I missed the last ride down!! I am all for mechanical system and it was a range day for me- sell from high zone to low zone. best wishes for both bears and bulls.

 

[Atilla]

Hi guys,

Here is my take on the charts for this week. You probably recognise it's my road map to the galaxies during 2008. :cheesy: So far so good. We are on target.

I've added couple of more down trending lines and according to MACD and RSI the selling pressure isn't off yet. I make 12,722 one of my 38% Fib retrace levels. I think we may have some more falls before support kicks in as MACD and RSI is yet to turn up.

Also, the H&S formation is clearly visible now. This has been in development since last year and now it's so clear and it is one of the most reliable text book charts that plays out to perfection.

Hence, a breach of 12800 in it's down trend followed by a bounce to 13000 that fails would be H&S playing out to it's conclusion imo. I would then see support at 12570 and 12170 on the bigger picture.

In summary I think 13000 has been breached so this week the previous lows likely to be tested again.

On a Fundamental level the big question is we all know US is heading for a recession (elections or not). Will the Asian rise in disposable incomes spur US and European exports? US exports yes as the dollar has fallen but European ones I don't think so.

Even if there is revival in the US economy it will be at the expense of inflation as Europe is not playing the same game. Hence, the US is in a very tight spot. In fact it is a dead end road. Who ever wins the elections is jumping out of the frying pan and into the fire.

Sooner or later even China once it's obligatory expenditure is completed will face inflationary pressures and a long over due correction. Thus my view is global growth will slow down possibly stall. I hope it will not be negative as that will have a disasterous domino effect making the recession deeper and more prolonged.

Good trading everyone... 👍

Core blimey, predictions are playing out really well again this week. Lightning can strike twice if I may say so. :cheesy: Forgive me guys for my boldness but it's not often I get to entertain. 😱

My sentiments were along Catracho's as I too thought we would have some kind of bounce as 12800 was holding quite well. I thought 13000 perhaps but the strength of feeling is very scary about the potential downside.

With Gold & Dollar where they are the only option open to the Fed is a .5% cut which is likely to make matters worse the only way forward is down imo.

As Steve points out if the bulls retreat tomorrow according to my last look at the charts the next stop is 12170.

If this H&S is to play out though I would still expect some bounce to the neck line before the elevator ride down to 11000s somewhere...

It is reassuring and good to know you too are turning bearish FW. I do have an adversity to going long because of my bearish stance but sticking to the short trend since August has served me very well.

I am concerned and quite sad at what's coming round the corner. As much as I wish for a shallow recession - some very deep waves are round the corner imo. 😢

A whirlpool at World's end would be a fair description. 😱

Many will get sucked in, chewed up and spat out at some desolute desert Island never to be heard again. :whistling

Strap your selves in boys... 😈

Good trading everyone. 👍

 

[fibonelli]

i don't trade the dow but did notice the waterfall which seemed to start after the poor AT&T report.

i wonder if today's move is a bear trap to make another lower swing high before the real waterfall?

 

[trader_dante]

You lot are making me well nervous.

 

[2468steve]

i don't trade the dow but did notice the waterfall which seemed to start after the poor AT&T report.

i wonder if today's move is a bear trap to make another lower swing high before the real waterfall?

not so much a bear trap as volume is increasing as we approach August lows.....big question is will there be enough sellers left to break them lows...that August spike down was on massive volume,will be tough to take out initially....we'll find out tomorrow I think....
BTW Bernanke is due to speak Thursday 6 pm......