Dow 2008

[cambridgedon]

Closed Dow cash 13084. +34

 

[dc2000]

not the best day in a while was up 100 went for lunch and bosh wipe out
Im still looking for the long would prefer an early 12970 cash price tomorrow maybe in conjunction with a FTSE march futures hit @6381
Looking for a strong three day upward move

 

[Atilla]

For a downtrend to be in place, we need to have lower highs and lower lows. This isn't the case. If anything, we've been in a sideways consolidation for last couple of months (on larger timeframe), which still has the possibility of setting us up to break 14000.

Btw, we had a strong bounce of support overnight on the DOW. That was my buying cue but unfortunately I was asleep :| Let's see how she goes today, but last couple of days have been down on pretty low volume.

You are right on the bigger time frame FW, but I'm looking at the 4 hour charts and there is a distinct downtrend since middle of October from 14000s (c). If 13000 fails next support on from the downtrend is likely to be 13750-700 according to this downtrend. It will test previous lows and may well breach it.

On the Weekly charts I can see the sideway move but this doesn't look like consolidation to me. More H&S.

I can see your uptrend on the Weeklies however, according to my system price has cut throught the MAs and so until price moves above I'm bearish on the trend.

Was a busy day back at work today so didn't get to participate but there is always tomorrow.

Good trading everyone.

 

[bertg]

Long Dow cash 13050.

Hi,

I know this will sound dumb, but what specific instrument are you talking about when you say you went long or short on the Dow cash?

Since you say 13050, I don't suppose you mean DIA (Diamond Trust), do you?

Thanks,
Bert

 

[cambridgedon]

I was refering to a spread bet price. They quote cash (same day) and futures prices.Obviously the futures prices include cost of money as well as time value whereas cash should be pretty much the actual index.

Ray

 

[Phil Mibbutz]

You are right on the bigger time frame FW, but I'm looking at the 4 hour charts and there is a distinct downtrend since middle of October from 14000s (c). If 13000 fails next support on from the downtrend is likely to be 13750-700 according to this downtrend. It will test previous lows and may well breach it.

On the Weekly charts I can see the sideway move but this doesn't look like consolidation to me. More H&S.

I can see your uptrend on the Weeklies however, according to my system price has cut throught the MAs and so until price moves above I'm bearish on the trend.

Was a busy day back at work today so didn't get to participate but there is always tomorrow.

Good trading everyone.

Assuming you hit the wrong key and meant 12,750, I'd tend to agree after yesterday's performance.

 

[timsk]

H&S Pattern

I mentioned this pattern forming on the old 2007 thread and it's now reaching maturity. H&S patterns are something of a cliche, but it's as well to be aware of them even if one elects not to trade them. The position of the 'neckline' is open to debate, I think, hence the two green horizontal lines. Even so, the general pattern is very clear on this 50 point, 3 box reversal Point & Figure chart. Yesterday's price action resulted in a double bottom sell signal and a breach of the blue bullish support line making the chart bearish. However, given that the current column of red 'O's is already 11 strong, it may drop to the lower green line at 12,800 before reversing, but it's unlikely to go much further. A consolidation above or below the 13,000 zone is likely to set the tone for trading in the opening period of the new year.
Tim.

 

[breadman]

Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC shows that Commercial Hedgers are now short 7222 contracts in the s&p500. this is from a long 47319 contract position in the middle of december. this is a big move in a short period of time i wonder if it means anything.

 

[trader_dante]

Long @ 13078 cash.

Stop @ 13016

 

[Devilicus]

Good to see you posting in this thread, TD.
Good luck with the trade.

 

[firewalker99]

Long @ 13078 cash.

Stop @ 13016

Wide stop, equally wide target?

PS: Happy newyear t_d and may your wildest dreams come through in 2008. I know already some of them have

 

[trader_dante]

Wide stop, equally wide target?

PS: Happy newyear t_d and may your wildest dreams come through in 2008. I know already some of them have

Thanks Devilicus and firewalker

I took this trade because I see a support/resistance pivot on the daily TF (chart 1) and what looks like a double bottom with a pin bar off this exact level on the hourly TF (chart 2).

I don't trade with fixed targets but the levels in chart 3 are s/r pivots I will be watching carefully.

I rarely trade the Dow but I check this thread from time to time and thought I would post.

Please note that I have posted a futures chart and I am long the cash. This is just for convenience (it's much quicker for me)

Tom

 

[Com trader]

whart

 

[Com trader]

too much vol.

 

[firewalker99]

too much vol.

could you please explain a bit more why and where you think volume is excessive?

 

[firewalker99]

hmm

Here's your downtrend Atilla

I am short on the break of yesterday's lows (entry 13075).

 

[firewalker99]

not the best day in a while was up 100 went for lunch and bosh wipe out
Im still looking for the long would prefer an early 12970 cash price tomorrow maybe in conjunction with a FTSE march futures hit @6381
Looking for a strong three day upward move

If the same principles as 2007 held, I should've interpreted your above comment as "a strong three day downward move"... I wonder if the market being 600 points lower than a week ago has changed your view.

Anyway, I guess you'll be glad to know that I've been on the wrong side of the market too on 2 of the 3 trades I took in the new year, but I'm short as we speak (see previous posts).

 

[firewalker99]

I am short on the break of yesterday's lows (entry 13075).

Scaled out first half at 13015 for +60, other half stops at 13040.

 

[2468steve]

Scaled out first half at 13015 for +60, other half stops at 13040.

SPX looks as if it'll fill it's 1429/32 gap at last today

 

[Hook Shot]

The dow is coming to daddy........... ideally we get a washout early and come back later today .... .... now I've gone public with it it's probably unlikely to happen :cheesy:

Justification ? Slow stochastics on daily DOW is now well below 20 and this is normally good for some kind of comeback... usually within 48hrs....

aLSO MY SHORTS ARE GETTING FAT ... and that's a private indication that a rally is not far off..... No lewd comments please ....

EDIT - I should not say usually .............because I have not done the full stat check... but soonish is probably more accurate