Atilla:
My call was right, but unfortunately I didn't follow my own system and rules of trading. I exited my short when I saw the bounce, but I wasn't confident to go long. Silly me. If I had followed my system I would be seeing lots of green right now! Why do us traders have momentary lapses in logical thinking!? I don't know...but I decided to print off a checklist I will go through for each position to validate whether long/short is justified. This should make me more aware of my plan and rules of trading. I'm developing a traders driving system based on the highway code. When the lines are green stick to the left hand side of the road (go long). When the MA lines are red stick to the right hand side (go short). Still dabling in time frames but entries are when the colours change from Red to Green or Green to Red. You can add to position when price and MAs cross over in same direction. Likewise scale out. I haven't perfected this system but it has a lot of merit im biased opinion... :cheesy:
I actually disregarded my system (VERY STUPID MOVE) because I thought the sell off would have been much stronger! Turns out that many traders had no problem sucking up the volume at daily support @11510. I was so sure it would crack and thankfully when I realized I was wrong, I got out @11560 and left my desk P*ssed off!
Just another draw down. I gave back some of my pips too last night the pull back after 7 pm was pretty good. My ticket closed at limit of 650. I went back in seeing it marching forwards and the pull back got me. Should have called it a night.
Tomorrow, here is my call:
Basically we'll see the same chart pattern evolve. Stay out of the mrkt in the morning because it will be choppy up and down, then if we get as low as 11510, this should act as support. If 11510 doesn't support we'll short DOW as long as MA's are moving down. 11560 is decent support as well. I always think that the market makers will try to sell through various supports and trigger a cascade of stops, but as long as traders can get the DOW to bounce, it will take off. That's why it's important to stay out until we see a bounce...and you can't be too quick to short like I did, it's too strong with the USD rally and OIL getting beat down.
USD/EURO will need to fight off the sharks. Key support for dollar is around 0.6462, so if USD can't hold onto gains, DOW will not hold gains. It looks like the USD/EURO is targeting 0.65
DOW is struggling to move upward in a smooth way. Today was jagged up movement, seeming tentative. DOW is acting like a manic depressive.
Follow those MA's and the day will be easy. 50/50 chance of up or down, which will be dependent on the usd, oil, and mrkt sentiment.
Give the dow till 1030AM eastern time and the trend should be established by then. Watching and waiting isn't such a bad idea when DOW is chopping upwards in a rough fashion.
