Dow 2008

[breadman]

$2.5 dollars on top of $124.00 is still significant.
On the Dow direction, a fund manager on Bloomberg thought the
improvement on the Non farm payroll figures was neglible.
He reckons the US market has a long way to fall. He says maybe will rally
to 1300 on S&P, but thats tops

the s&p has double topped at 1290 i think which is 11600/11700 on the dow.That might be the top but I think it will go higher.I also think it has more to fall 9800, 8800, 7200 on the dow over the next couple of years.
with regards to non farm payroll, the figures the market gets is never a true picture of the employment market anyway.

 

[tantra]

Guys, can i ask a really DUMB question. Why the heck is a recession never priced into the stockmarkets? Everyone is saying we are either heading for a recession... or infact we ARE in the initial stages of a recession. If that is the case, how come the markets are still bouncing around levels before the recession hype came about?

Thanks

 

[Kondaliev]

Oil rises on tension about Iran's nuclear work

....if we see Oil under 125...Dow may rally ...

 

[dannyew]

11300 is a good suport...

 

[Atilla]

the s&p has double topped at 1290 i think which is 11600/11700 on the dow.That might be the top but I think it will go higher.I also think it has more to fall 9800, 8800, 7200 on the dow over the next couple of years.
with regards to non farm payroll, the figures the market gets is never a true picture of the employment market anyway.

My sentiments too Breadman. It's all about the timing. Today looks like 11430s got rejected and it gave way again. Given the bad employment figures and further increased discussion of recession and being a Friday with weekend break best not to test market strength.

I reckon 11680 needs to be breached and if we don't get passed 11600s bigger falls are due.

I'm thinking your mid-August dates are going to be show time Breadman. Eagerly waiting for them. So perhaps until then we'll have this 300-500 range bound sideways move.

 

[Kondaliev]

11300 is a good suport...

...yes very good suport

 

[Vaco]

getting tested far too often today, the trend lately has been for a move to take place in the last hour of trading, i expect today to be the same and i can see us touching 11200 before the day is done.

 

[Atilla]

Hi everyone,

On my charts I have;

Weekly buy
Daily sell
4 hourly buy setups.

Do I know where we are heading? No not really. I feel we need to make another high. Almost like vibes having watched these charts for so long. Will not base decision on what I think - even though I think it will go up.

Looking to actively trade tomorrow if setups look decent. I will trade in the direction of my moving averages. Price is currently around pivot point 11288.


I have

R2=11454 on the upside and
S2=11126 to the downside as targets.


Good trading everyone...

 

[Mr.J-Arthur]

Fun day

Today, the bets started out on the short side, as last week was no good for unemployment. My 3 moving averages (3, 13, 39) signaled the drop and the reversal which occurred a little later. Had I been awake and not napping I would have captured 200pts.

I try not to figure out why the market moves, but sometimes I wonder! Watch the technicals and realize US stocks are suffering and I'm guessing that 9500-10500 is possible.

:cheesy: Goodluck everyone.

 

[Atilla]

Today, the bets started out on the short side, as last week was no good for unemployment. My 3 moving averages (3, 13, 39) signaled the drop and the reversal which occurred a little later. Had I been awake and not napping I would have captured 200pts.

I try not to figure out why the market moves, but sometimes I wonder! Watch the technicals and realize US stocks are suffering and I'm guessing that 9500-10500 is possible.

:cheesy: Goodluck everyone.

When do you think the DOW will reach 10500 Arthur?

I also have these 10000s levels on my radar but possibly toward end of August.

 

[tantra]

If crude drops to $100 do you think that 10500 is still possible? Should the market not get a boost as inflationary pressures are off slightly (although temporarily)?

 

[Atilla]

If crude drops to $100 do you think that 10500 is still possible? Should the market not get a boost as inflationary pressures are off slightly (although temporarily)?

Maybe / probably some contribution to DOW go up.

Reasons for slowdon and recession not simply oil or inflation imo.

Burn-out from the humangous debt crises and liquidity crunch would be my reason. I reckon inflation will revive the housing market not anything government or banks can do.

How much more rubbish of what we don't need can we consume with money we don't have? :cheesy: That would be my question?

 

[Atilla]

Well R1 @ 11360 has been hit.

If we make another high above the 380s or breach 400 mark then I reckon 11454 is likely to be hit sometime today.

I think we may bounce off the 350/360 levels when the DOW opens.

 

[Mr.J-Arthur]

Okay YM about to gear up.

I can't predict, I suck at it, but today may be slightly up with all the fluff news. (I just follow trend)
We're still in a ****ty global market. So we'll see.

Oil is helping to reduce some pain now in the teens/twenties.

ATILLA-You're calling a rally huh? Let's see
I'm waiting to go long or short. Just stalking.

EDIT:Breakout on the upside! Went long @11378

 

[Atilla]

Okay YM about to gear up.

I can't predict, I suck at it, but today may be slightly up with all the fluff news. (I just follow trend)
We're still in a ****ty global market. So we'll see.

Oil is helping to reduce some pain now in the teens/twenties.

ATILLA-You're calling a rally huh? Let's see
I'm waiting to go long or short. Just stalking.

EDIT:Breakout on the upside! Went long @11378

I wouldn't call it a big rally but my target for today is 11454 which is R2.

We are almost about to hit it. Difficulty now is what comes next. But with some good stats and oil dropping I guess it's likely to continue up.

I will place a SL and leave it at that once target achieved.

Good call on the long.

Ok if we don't come back down from R2=11454 then next targets likely to be 500 and then 11550.

I do think we should test 11430s again before we surge forward and onwards again...

 

[Mr.J-Arthur]

God dam*it, my stop was too tight. 20pts is too tight I guess. I'll try 30pts on my next trade.

That was an easy 50pt for those with wider stops.

The rally will not sustain much further. A little dip and drop or a dip and then some upward activity then drop.

I'm not lining up to buy, despite the fact that I missed the first boat because of my stops. 2nd day in a row to lose b/c of my stops...I'm pissed.

 

[Atilla]

God dam*it, my stop was too tight. 20pts is too tight I guess. I'll try 30pts on my next trade.

That was an easy 50pt for those with wider stops.

The rally will not sustain much further. A little dip and drop or a dip and then some upward activity then drop.

I'm not lining up to buy, despite the fact that I missed the first boat because of my stops. 2nd day in a row to lose b/c of my stops...I'm pissed.

Feel you sir... Been there, done that, got the T-shirt... and held that pose for the photo!!! :cheesy:

Think of the pips you've made rather than the ones you've missed...

I think we are likely to be heading to 500s...

 

[Mr.J-Arthur]

Haha, great line, "Been there, done that, got the T-shirt."

I'm not making much right now, just scalping to minimize my loss from my first trade. At least I didn't lose a fortune so I'll wait for the next BIG opportunity (50-100pts).

 

[Mr.J-Arthur]

Anyone here looking for a shorting opportunity for later today?

or will dow just go thru 11480? When will you guys take your profit off the table?

 

[Atilla]

Anyone here looking for a shorting opportunity for later today?

or will dow just go thru 11480? When will you guys take your profit off the table?

I'm still long. My next target is 500 and then 550.

I will be looking to close before market closes today. Don't know when.

Locked in some pips with current SL at 11430 which is Fib 23% retrace from lows to highs.